A note on the CERU-MoA grain farm household survey in China

During the period 1994–1995 the Chinese Economy Research Unit (CERU), University of Adelaide, Australia and the Department of Policy, Reform and Law, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA),¹ the People's Republic of China, jointly designed and conducted an annual sample survey of about 1000 farm households in five Chinese provinces: Guangdong, Jilin, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Shandong. The CERU-MoA survey is a part of the ACIAR (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research) project on China's grain production and marketing during 1994–1996.² Based on this survey a large database has been established which contains cross-household data on population and labour, land, grain production and marketing, food consumption, income and related policy issues.³     

民间粮食储备研究综述及其政策启示

粮食是国民经济的基础,尤其是在我们这样一个人口大国,自然禀赋相对稀缺,地区发展不均衡,人口数量呈绝对上升趋势,城镇化加速发展带来的耕地日趋减少的情况下,搞好粮食储备事关国计民生。民间粮食储备可有效弥补国库库容小,储备能力不足,占用资金过大,账实不符,陈粮不能及时轮换等缺点。本文综合分析了国内外的民间粮食储备现状,提出了政府资助扶持农户粮食储备的设想,这种设想倘若得到实现,必将有利于我国粮农(尤其是种粮大户)增加收入,保持种粮积极性,维持未来粮食生产能力,是当前我国寄希望通过直接补贴政策提高粮农收入水平的一种有益补充。     

我国报业市场绩效与市场结构关系的实证分析

文章首先运用贝恩市场结构理论中的市场集中度指标体系及相关数据对我国报纸业发展现状进行阐述,在此基础上运用皮尔逊（Pearson）相关系数进行实证分析,得出了我国报纸业市场绩效与市场集中度、企业规模等市场结构指标高度正相关的结论。最后结合实证分析结果,提出了我国报纸业改革的几点政策建议。     

Reform of one‐channel marketing systems: Expanding the debate and agenda for research

The recent exchange between Groenewald and Brand on the report tabled by the Committee of Inquiry into maize marketing arrangements makes for interesting reading. Professor Groenewald raises a wide range of important conceptual and pragmatic concerns, with the stinging conclusion that the Commission did not achieve its primary mission and an opportunity for substantive reforms was lost. Dr Brand countered by pointing out that the Commission focused on changes that were politically acceptable and would ‘set in motion a movement towards a more market‐oriented situation’. There is wisdom in the comments of both authors and the time is ripe for agricultural economists in South Africa to address an expanded research agenda on these issues.

At the outset, it should be made clear that no special knowledge of the maize marketing system in South Africa is claimed. However, the current debate bears many similarities to that which is currently engulfing agricultural policy observers in Canada and the United States. Agricultural reform and the need to remain competitive in an increasingly open world market is a theme that has thrust itself on policy analysts. In Canada, agricultural economists have engaged in an active professional debate on the merits of supply management and one‐channel marketing systems over the past ten years. Although the strengths and weaknesses of these systems have been well documented from theoretical and conceptual bases, the major impetus for change has come from empirical analysis and the realization that Canada had created an environment which fosters unproductive agricultural sectors, International uncompetitiveness, and food prices that penalize consumers, expecially those in low-income categories. In some cases, prices are so far out of line with the United States that border crossings are deluged on weekends with Canadian shoppers returning home with goods purchased. Food items, expecially those under one-channel supply management marketing systems, figure prominently in the goods brought back to Canada. The system of supply management is in crisis and even the marketing boards have acknowledged that significantly more market orientation is necessary.

Agricultural economists can make a significant contribution to the policy debate in South Africa. Brand is quite right in pointing out that the process will be evolutionary — what is politically unacceptable today may become the policy of tomorrow. The time frame of policy reform fits well into that which is needed to conduct empirical research. But this research must focus on the important issues, even though they may be unpopular. Groenewald makes an important first step in this direction by drawing attention to the issues of productivity and pricing. However, more steps are needed. A critical issue, from my perspective, is the capitalization of benefits from protective agricultural policies.     

当代印度政府提高粮食生产的政策研究

独立以来,作为世界上第二人口大国的印度,历届政府都极其关注粮食问题,从尼赫鲁政府的土地改革到后来的绿色革命等,印度政府采取一系列措施增加粮食产量,取得相当大的成就。一个最显著的成果是到20世界70年代末,印度在低水平上实现了粮食自给。粮食是农业的基础,粮食可持续发展是农业可持续发展的基础,农业可持续发展是一国经济增长的基础。在这个背景下,研究印度独立以来解决粮食生产问题,分析其成败得失,不仅对印度粮食安全和农业发展有着重要的意义,而且对广大发展中国家包括中国在内,都有现实的借鉴意义,也可丰富发展经济学的相关研究。     

China's grain marketing system reform in 1993–1994: empirical evidence from a rural household survey

By utilizing a rural household survey, this paper domonstrates the progress in China's grain marketing reform in 1993 and evaluates to what extent the reform was reversed in 1994. Specifically, we investigate the degree of commercialization, changes in state's contract procurement quota and changes in the marketing channels. Overall, the grain market has been liberalized to a very large extent. Participation of the private traders have already grown to a significant level, occupying more than one-third of the market share for wheat and rice and more than half for maize. For minor crops, the share of private traders were even bigger. Despite the reversal in 1994, the grain market was still very “open.” Counting all grain types, the state was controlling only about one-third of the marketed surplus. However, if the central leadership perceived any serious instability in the market for a certain grain, examples provided illustrate how the state's control could certainly be strengthened significantly.     

深化科技体制改革背景下科研人员激励政策体系研究

在我国深化科技体制改革的背景下,科研人员激励政策改革加速。通过大量政策文本的收集与分析,梳理了此轮科研人员激励政策的要点。从激励意义、激励周期、影响范围、改革难度、突破性五方面进行了政策作用分析,基于知识员工激励理论构建了我国科研人员激励政策体系。并提出具体优化建议。     

营销投入、高管激励和企业绩效关系的实证研究——基于159家农业类A股上市公司的数据

选取159家A股农业类上市公司数据，考察营销投入、高管激励对企业绩效的影响，并运用阿尔蒙（Almon）法测定营销投入对企业绩效影响的滞后期。研究发现：营销投入与企业财务绩效和市场绩效均呈显著倒“U”形关系；营销投入对企业财务绩效和市场绩效的影响分别滞后2期和3期；高管股权激励正向调节营销投入对企业绩效的影响；高管薪酬激励仅正向调节营销投入对财务绩效的影响。研究成果可为农业企业市场营销策略和政策制定提供决策参考。     

关于进一步解放思想与深化改革问题

近30年来我国四个时期的经济快速增长,很明显都和解放思想有着密切的关系。当前,在所有制改革方面,特别是在国有经济在我国经济中的性质和作用问题上,有必要进一步解放思想,实事求是地作出恰如其分的界定;在市场化改革方面,特别是我国的金融市场,是否应该进一步开放并逐步同世界市场接轨问题上,有必要进一步解放思想,以促进我国金融产业的快速健康发展;在国民财富的分配方面,要认真解放思想,尽快扭转过分重视投资、忽视消费的倾向;在政治体制改革方面,要适当解放思想,促进政治改革健康有序地稳步推进。     

我国纺织业经营模式的演进与整合

纺织业经营模式,实质上是纺织企业整合和利用内外部资源、实现企业目标的方式。我国纺织业从传统计划经济体系下的产品生产模式,经历了改革开放以来的商品经营模式,目前又在实践虚拟经营、资本经营、文化经营等不同经营模式。为应对当今激烈的竞争和诸多发展矛盾,纺织企业应该对这些经营模式进行有效地整合,以进一步增强行业的竞争力。     

The growth of China and India: implications and policy reform options for Malaysia

This study explores the trade‐related impacts of rapid growth of China and India on the Malaysian economy and evaluates policy options to better position Malaysia to take advantage of these changes. Higher growth in China and India is likely to raise Malaysia's national income and to expand Malaysia's natural resource and agricultural exports, while putting downward pressure on exports from some manufacturing and service sectors. Increases in the quality and variety of exports from China and India are likely to increase substantially the overall gains to Malaysia. The expansion of the natural resource sectors and the contraction of manufacturing and services reflect a Dutch‐disease effect that will raise the importance of policies to facilitate adaptation to the changing world economy and improve competitiveness. Most‐favoured‐nation (MFN) liberalisation would increase welfare, and, by increasing competitiveness, raise output and exports of key industries. Preferential liberalisation with India and completely free trade with China would provide greater market access gains than MFN reform, but neither would be as effective in increasing income as MFN liberalisation, and free trade agreements would lead to greater competitive pressure on many of Malaysia's industries than MFN liberalisation. Increased investments in education and infrastructure could boost manufacturing and services sectors in Malaysia, while improving trade logistics would benefit sectors with high transport costs, including the agricultural and resource‐based industries.     

Belt and road: The China dream?

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach and conduct a counterfactual analysis. Our key findings are as follows: (i) China and the EU are expected to make substantial gains from the BRI due to reductions in transport costs; (ii) signing and implementing a deep FTA between China and the EU is equivalent to transport cost reductions of 15–20%; (iii) the joint policy of the BRI and FTA is super-additive, magnifying the gains from the separate policies; and (iv) where transport cost reductions are 20% or more, the potential negative effect of the China-US trade war on China is more than compensated for by the BRI initiative. Our results provide evidence that the BRI has the potential to deliver significant welfare gains, particularly if combined with other trade integration schemes, and to counterbalance aggressive trade policies.     

The Services Sector as a Driver of Change: Indonesia’s Experience in the ASEAN Context

By various performance indicators, the Indonesian services sector ranks below those of its main ASEAN neighbours. This is concerning for Indonesia, given the the increased attention worldwide on the services sector as a likely source of growth, the contribution of the services sector to the competitiveness of other sectors, and the opportunities available for capturing the gains from innovation and change in services. There is scope, we argue, to increase the number of formal jobs in the sector and to dispel its reputation as the employer of last resort. We find that a restrictive policy regime contributes to the sector’s poor performance, leading to an argument for reform. We discuss a potential strategy for such reform, focusing on four factors: increasing transparency and policy information; capturing the opportunities from international commitments; and exploring the potential of, one, new technology, and, two, urbanisation.     

Dynamic Adjustment to Regional Integration: Europe 1992 and NAFTA

Recent research on the gains to trade liberalization, especially in a number of papers by Richard Baldwin, suggests that the static gains to trade liberalization that many economists attempt to measure may be dwarfed by the dynamic gains. One source of these dynamic gains is through capital accumulation. A similar argument can be made regarding the consequences of regional integration. As distortions are removed the effects of aggregate output through dynamic adjustments are likely to be larger than simple static calculations suggest. This paper focuses on the issue of the dynamic gains to regional integration for two recent episodes, European integration known as Europe 1992, and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The paper provides empirical results on the size and nature of global and regional adjustments to these two examples of regional integration. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1994, 8(4), pp. 422–453. Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200, Australia; and Brookings Institution, Washington, DC 20036.     

改革主体、改革战略及其关联因素的宏观情境

中国改革已经由"前改革时代"进入"后改革时代",前改革时代那些对改革起到巨大作用的促进因素将逐渐演变为改革的阻碍因素。在后改革时代,政策导向应当更加关注那些已经或正在向改革反面转化的、进一步改革的阻碍因素,对那些曾经的改革促进因素大胆进行再改革。     

Have cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty changed during the US–China trade war?

This study investigates the interconnection of policy uncertainties between the world’s two largest countries, the US and China, and sheds light on whether and how the US–China trade war affects each party. Given the deep-seated economic integration and trade linkage between the two countries, these characterizations are essential for understanding how policy shocks propagate spatially. Using fiscal, monetary, and trade policy data from January 2000 to December 2019, I provide ample evidence of bilateral, multilateral, and system-wide measures of policy uncertainty connectedness. Monetary policy is most likely to be the leader of policy uncertainty in China, while fiscal policy is more likely to be the leader in the US. The cross-category connectedness is not constant over time. Overall, the direction of spillover is from the US to China, although this changes in different periods owing to different environments. These findings are useful for policymakers to monitor the effectiveness of policies and to help investors avoid economic policy uncertainty shocks induced by return fluctuations.     

我国大众文化的双重维度辩证发展探析

建国以来，我国的文化发展可分为两个时期：改革开放之前主要发展文化事业，改革开放后，文化产业的越来越快速发展。当前，我国文化发展还存在很多的问题。一定要将文化事业与文化产业结合发展，两个维度和谐统一，促进文化健康发展。     

The Chinese Phillips curve – inflation dynamics in the presence of structural change

This paper models inflation dynamics in China from 1987 to 2014 using a Phillips curve framework. The Phillips curve is generally estimated under the assumption of linearity and parameter constancy. The existence of structural breaks in China’s inflation dynamics make standard linear models inappropriate tools for analysis however. Our results find that the Chinese Phillips curve is characterised by a non-linear relationship. The inflation/output relationship takes the form of a concave curve. This suggests that changes in the level of output effect inflation in China more strongly in periods when output is operating below its potential but the relationship is weaker when output is operating at or above potential. Based on these findings, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) could consider output cost and policy response on a case-by-case basis depending on the level of output in relation to potential.     

Factor reallocation and structural transformation implications of grain subsidies in China

Since agriculture has contributed significantly to China’s economic growth miracle, it is important to understand the contributions and determinants of agriculture related to different agricultural policies in structural transformation in China. However, as one of the most important agricultural policies in China, the effects of the grain subsidy policy on factor reallocation, economic growth, as well as agricultural and non-agricultural production have not been investigated systematically and comprehensively. The absence of using an economy-wide model to estimate the impacts of the grain subsidy policy in China leaves a vacuum in the policy-advising space. This research develops a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy to evaluate the historical impacts of the grain subsidy policy. Our results reveal that grain subsidies impede the efficiency of factor reallocation and economic structural transformation in China. However, grain subsidies promote grain production growth and temporarily reduce rural-urban income disparity. In order to achieve the long-term sustainable increase in rural income and to mitigate the rural-urban income gap, China needs to further develop its labor-intensive industries (e.g., services) to accommodate the large number of rural labor transfers. Moreover, the large-scale agricultural production and technology improvement in agriculture are the effective measures to ensure food security in China.     

The Cost of Rich (and Poor) Country Protection to Developing Countries

This study confirms that substantial barriers to market accesswill remain in both rich and poor countries following full implementationof the Uruguay Round agreement. The analysis finds that approximately40% of the costs of these barriers to developing countries arisefrom barriers to market access in industrial countries and 60%from barriers in developing countries themselves. The resultssuggest that there would be large gains to almost all regionsfrom a round of negotiations that increased market access inthe North and South. In Africa, the potential static gains frommultilateral reform appear to exceed those from preferentialliberalisation, without the well-known disadvantages of a preferentialapproach.