The value of institutions for financial markets: evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets view election years negatively.     

东道国有效利用外国直接投资的新途径--促进跨国企业与东道国企业的联系

本文分析了通过促进跨国企业与东道国企业的联系,包括前向、后向和水平联系,进入一个前向———后向联系的累积因果循环,可以使东道国的本地企业和相关行业得到发展,甚至在某些领域击败跨国企业,揭示了一条东道国有效利用外国直接投资的新途径。但由于市场的不完全性,东道国政府应有所作为,促进跨国企业与本地企业的联系。     

试析美国金融危机的根源——“政府”与“市场”关系的重大失误

在"政府"与"市场"的关系的长期论争中,自由市场派占据上风并导致监管缺失,成为美国金融危机的根源。其主要表现为:金融监管法律放松,长期宽松的货币政策,对市场的自由放任和对金融衍生品的监管放纵,对投资银行等金融机构的监管失职等。对我国的启示:要正确认识和处理好"政府"与"市场"的关系,要审慎推动金融创新,防范金融衍生品风险,要加强对金融机构和住房抵押贷款的监管。     

A comparison of shareholder identity and governance mechanisms in the monitoring of CEOs of listed companies in China

This paper compares the relative effectiveness of two measures by which the Chinese government attempted to improve the monitoring of listed companies: shifting the ownership of state shares from government agencies (GAs) to the corporate form of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and strengthening corporate governance through statutory regulations and guidelines. The results show that SOEs are better able than GAs to monitor top executives, as indicated by a higher sensitivity of top executive turnover to firm performance. However, corporate governance mechanisms have no significant impact on the sensitivity of top executive turnover to firm performance. This study suggests that incentives for controlling shareholders are more important than governance mechanisms in replacing executives due to poor performance in a transitional economy such as China's, where institutions that support governance mechanisms are still being developed.     

扩大对发展中国家直接投资的可行性分析

中国经济近年来强劲增长,但也受到资源、市场等瓶颈的约束,因此我国政府实施了“走出去”战略,鼓励企业进行对外直接投资。我国是发展中大国,相对于其他发展中国家具有一定的比较优势,扩大对发展中国家的投资具有可行性。     

关于WTO框架下中日两国经贸合作战略升级:现实依据与推进对策

中日两国经贸关系与政治关系目前处于明显的不平衡状态,中国作为负责任的发展中大国应当采取积极的方针和立场加以解决,用发展势头强劲的经贸合作关系带动政治关系发展,努力在WTO框架下实现经贸合作战略升级目标,争取到2008年突破2000亿美元大关。为此,必须正视双方经贸关系发展中出现的问题,找出深层次的原因,提出在WTO框架下的解决方案,从而为东亚大市场成长为世界第三大经济增长极共同做出应有贡献。     

研发密集度与跨国公司组织模式选择——基于金融市场摩擦的分析

本文探讨了在东道国金融市场不完善的条件下,行业研发密集度与跨国公司组织模式之间的关系。本文的基本逻辑是,因为研发密集度高的行业对东道国金融市场的依赖程度更高,而跨国公司可以通过选择组织模式和投资区位以消除金融市场不完全的影响,因此,不同的行业跨国公司的组织模式和区位选择会随行业研发密集度的不同而不同。本文分析结果表明:首先,在研发密集度较高的行业,更多的企业会选择在发达地区进行FDI,而在落后地区进行外包;其次,随着落后地区金融市场效率的提高,所有行业在发达和落后地区的外包都会变得更加普遍;最后,本文还进一步分析了行业生产率分布对企业组织模式的影响。本文的结论为现有经验研究结果提供了理论支持。     

从税收政策看中、印软件业的发展

信息产业是我国重点发展的支柱产业之一,随着全球经济和社会发展需求的变化,信息产业逐渐由硬件主导型向软件和服务主导型发展,软件产业发展迅速。尽管近年来我国软件产业发展取得了很大成绩,但与发达国家甚至一些发展中国家尤其是印度相比,与我国的巨大市场空间、经济总量和国际地位相比,我国软件产业可以说是还任重而道远。由于软件产业的战略性、基础性等特点,软件产业的发展已经不仅仅是单纯的企业行为,而需要一个国家政策的大力支持。那么,对于我国软件产业的发展,我国的税收政策在其中发挥了怎样的作用呢?本文通过与软件产业发展成功国家印度进行对比,发现我国税收政策的优势和其中的不足,建议我国政府改善软件产业的发展的税收环境。     

中国科技系统去政治化过程中的经济与文化选择

对比近现代中西方科技的发展过程,可以发现我国没有像西方先发展国家那样经历过科技理性对人文环境的洗礼。新中国成立后,科学技术长期被动地服从于政治体系,社会主义市场经济建设以来,政府推动科技与经济结合,产生了许多负面影响。究其原因是中国科技系统中缺乏文化动力,限制了科技系统的政治和经济功能,因此我国当前的社会发展需要积极推动科技与文化的良性互动。     

Bilateral political relations,space spillovers and the import expansion of China’s bulk commodity

The stability of bulk commodities imports is crucial to the development and stability of the country’s economy. Because its political attribute is more significant than other commodities, the trade of bulk commodities is more easily affected by bilateral political relations. However, there are only few studies examine the impact of political relations between countries and their spatial spillovers on bulk commodities’ imports. Based on “United Nations (UN) Voting General Assembly Voting Data” and “China Import and Export Statistics Data” from 1996 to 2014, this paper empirically examines the influence of the spatial spillover of China’s political relations with countries other than potential importing countries on the import expansion of China’s bulk commodity from the potential importing country. The results show that the improvement of bilateral political relations between China and other countries has a negative spatial spillover effect on the import of bulk commodities. However, this negative effect will be changed as China starts to establish a sound bilateral political relation with the potential importing country. Meanwhile, the more significant the political attributes of commodities, the greater the negative effect of spatial spillover. The import expansion of commodities with significant political attributes requires an improvement in direct bilateral relations.     

Beyond privatization: Institutional innovation and growth in China's large state-owned enterprises

This article demonstrates that China's large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not stagnant fossils waiting to die. Under economic reform policies this sector has undergone large change due to enhanced enterprise autonomy, the impact of market forces, rapid growth of domestic demand for upstream products, strategic integration with the world economy and the state's policy to promote large businesses. China's large SOEs are developing new institutional forms that do not neatly fit into existing patterns. China is experimentally changing its institutions through a combination of central policy, local initiative and interaction with international investment. This presents a challenge to the “transitional orthodoxy” and to ideas concerning property rights in development economics. There is not a universal model of property rights and government action that works best in all circumstances. China's experience with the reform of large SOEs shows the diverse possibilities for effective industrial institutions.     

中国摆脱依附式发展与中美贸易冲突根源

中美贸易冲突根源的探寻不应停留在国际贸易层次,而是应该从当下的国际分工结构和国际生产关系中去寻找。作者从马克思主义国际政治经济学角度出发,认为国际分工及其相应的国际生产关系是决定国家在世界舞台上政治经济地位与利益的基础。发展中国家在传统的国际分工结构中长期处于外围、在生产关系上处于依附地位的根本原因在于生产力落后,特别是技术水平落后。20世纪70年代以来,全球生产链作为一种新的国际生产组织方式逐渐形成并发展起来。在这一新的国际分工生产中,发展中国家的依附地位并没有改变,但是具体的依附形式不同于历史上的依附形式,呈现出“技术—市场”依附的特点。在这种新的依附形式下,广大参与全球生产链分工的发展中国家只能从中获得微薄的附加值,进而形成一种依附式发展,而西方发达国家的跨国企业却能够主导全球生产进程并从中获得高额的附加值。中国要实现现代化强国的目标,就需要摆脱依附式发展模式,实现在全球生产链中从中低端向中高端的攀升。近年来中国在发展高新技术产业和提升世界市场地位方面的努力及其获得的相应成就触动了美国作为现有国际分工主导者的既得利益。为了维护其霸权的经济基础,美国不惜发起贸易战以遏制中国的发展有其必然性。中国摆脱依附式发展以及美国相对衰落所导致的国际分工格局现实和潜在的变化正是中美贸易冲突爆发的根源所在。     

新兴市场国家金融部门外国直接投资问题研究

20世纪90年代中期以后,在一系列因素的作用下,新兴市场国家的FSFDI迅速增长。FS-FDI具有提高新兴市场国家的资本分配效率等积极作用,但同时也产生了新的金融脆弱性,使新兴市场国家的金融监管当局面临重大挑战。新兴市场国家在吸收FSFDI时应当加强审慎有效的金融监管;合理控制FSFDI的数量并鼓励本国金融机构提高国际化程度;统筹规划FSFDI的格局,避免来源国过于集中。目前,外资银行对中国金融部门的直接投资尚处在准备阶段,随着中国金融自由化步伐的逐步加快,以中国为首的东亚新兴市场国家将成为吸收国际FSFDI的主力。     

我国对新兴市场的出口潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型

通过构建贸易引力模型来测算我国对其他新兴市场国家和发展中国家的出口潜力,认为我国应当积极拓展对其贸易不足的国家。通过对进口国家的政局和市场因素,以及国内的政策、商品和企业等5个方面分析,分别从政府部门、金融保险机构和企业等部门寻求措施来拓展新兴市场和发展中国家市场。     

Alternative fiscal regimes for mining in developing countries

The government revenue from foreign-owned mineral projects in developing countries can be extracted through a variety of alternative tools. This paper scrutinizes the implications for the government and for the private investor, respectively, of fiscal regimes relying mainly on royalties, income taxes and government equity participation. The conclusion of the analysis is that an income tax biased regime offers greater advantages to governments of mineral rich developing countries interested in an efficient and development-promoting expansion of the mineral sector with foreign investor involvement, than do regimes biased in favor of royalties and government equity take.     

Impact of Terrorism on Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions (M&As): Prevalence,Frequency and Intensity

This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of terrorism on international business by focusing on the specific case of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using bilateral data for 59 countries over the period 2000–2011. We are interested in the following set of questions: (a) the impact of source and host country terrorism on bilateral M&A flows using various measures of terrorism (i.e. prevalence, frequency and intensity); (b) whether terrorism affects developing countries differently; (c) whether good institutions in developing host countries can offset the negative effects of terrorism; and (d) whether terrorism incidents in a particular economy has negative spillovers to its neighbors. To preview the main conclusions, we find that an augmented gravity model fits the data well. While the occurrence of terrorism in either the host or source does not appear to have any impact on bilateral M&A, the frequency and intensity of terrorist attacks significantly deter M&A flows, especially in the latter. We also find that good institutions negate the impact of terrorist attacks in the developing host country. There is also some evidence that regional spillovers reduce M&As in the host country.     

The demand for foreign workers by foreign firms: evidence from Africa

Foreign workers play a crucial role in channelling resources and information flows both within the boundaries of firms and between foreign firms and the host country economy. In this study we employ a novel firm-level database (UNIDO Africa Investor Survey 2010) in order to investigate the factors that determine the employment of foreign workers by foreign firms in Sub-Saharan African countries. We shed light on important firm-level as well as host–home country characteristics which shape the demand of foreign workers in developing countries. We show that differences between investors are largely explained by the role played by economic and institutional distance between home–host countries as well as by firm-level heterogeneity in the degrees of knowledge intensity and local embeddedness.     

The quality of host government and China’s OFDI: Construction of micro-evaluation model of government quality

Government is not only an important participant in the process of national governance, but also a firm executor and supervisor of national policies. In the process of China’s active promotion of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI), the risks caused by the poor quality of the host government have not been paid enough attention to. This paper builds a micro-evaluation model of government quality from four aspects based on the quality of government expert survey. The results show that although the scores of developed countries are generally higher than those of developing countries, the growth of China’s OFDI in developing countries is higher than in developed countries. In particular, the growth of investment to the member states of The Belt and Road Initiative is more significant. How to realize mutually beneficial achievements between China's overseas investment and host countries with low government quality is an important issue for China.     

Quality of Institutions and Violence Incidence: a Cross-Country Analysis

This paper utilizes two alternative econometric strategies to test the hypothesis that countries with poor institutional arrangements create an environment with increased impunity, thus providing incentives for potential law-breakers to engage in criminal activities that lead to rapid contagion of violence. Several measures of institutions including legal, political, market, government, and sociocultural institutions are considered in the paper. The empirical analysis provides evidence that the impact of institutional quality on violence is important regardless of income levels. This finding implies that differences in quality of institutions explain why countries with similar levels of income per capita may have different rates of violence and crime. In addition, the results show that quality of institutions matter for a successful long-term strategy to reduce violence.     

亚洲发展中国家外资银行监管现状及经验借鉴——以越南为例

20世纪80年代后,外资银行在发展中国家迅速发展,对东道国关于外资银行的监管提出了更高的要求。越南作为亚洲较早对外开放的发展中国家,金融市场的建设相对完善,目前国内银行业为国有银行、外资银行、私营银行三足鼎立的形式。研究越南对外资银行准入、经营、退出等方面的监管措施,对我国外资银行监管的制度完善具有重要意义。