Synergies and competition: Export survival in Africa and Latin America

Using firm-level export data from six African (Burkina Faso and Senegal) and Latin American (Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay) countries, we examine factors that determine the survival of export flows. We explore the effects on export survival of changes in the number of home-country exporters serving the same destination, firm-level export diversification, and country-level factors. Unlike previous studies, we find that export survival rates decrease with the number of co-exporters selling the same product to the same country. We also find that the relationship between firm-level product diversification and export flow survival is hump-shaped: firms that do not diversify or are highly diversified have lower survival of product-destination flows. Our findings are robust to various alternative specifications. The main findings hold across both regions and all countries. However, the number of co-exporters negatively affects survival in Africa more than in Latin America.     

要素禀赋、贸易成本与中国出口产品多元化的目标国差异——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

文章基于2005-2014年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家HS-6出口产品数据,采用洛伦兹曲线和固定效应面板数据分别从理论和实证两个层面考察了要素禀赋和贸易成本对中国出口产品多元化的影响,在此基础上,进一步考虑了近年来中国对外直接投资（OFDI）的迅速增加对出口产品多元化的交互性影响。结果表明,中国与目标国之间的要素禀赋差异越小、地理距离越近、贸易一体化程度越高,中国出口到目标国的产品多元化水平越高;有形资本对出口产品多元化的影响最为显著,远远超过了人力资本和土地等其他要素禀赋;而OFDI的快速增长在一定程度上抑制了出口产品多元化水平的提高,意味着中国“走出去”战略应充分权衡出口多元化与OFDI的关系。     

外贸出口对中国经济增长影响分析

采用理论与实证分析相结合的方法研究外贸出口对中国经济增长的影响。除分析出口总量外,还将服务贸易出口、货物贸易出口、初级产品出口、工业制品出口以及按照《联合国国际货物标准分类》得到的10个大类产品出口作为变量,分别研究其与GDP的关系。研究结果表明,出口增长能直接带动GDP的增加,并且就业、消费、投资、政府支出、进口也受其影响,从而出口间接刺激经济增长。此外,出口还通过外汇储备、规模经济、技术进步三个方面对经济增长产生影响。     

Losing Ground: Latin American Growth from 1955 to 1999

I evaluate Latin America's relative economic performance by combining the Solow growth coefficients from 22 rich countries and the actual factor accumulation in the region. I find that actual income growth was consistently below simulated growth for all of the countries in the sample, indicating that low productivity is likely behind slow gross domestic product growth in the region. The low productivity growth is partially explained by government consumption spending, ethnic diversity, autocracy, export composition, and educational quality.     

LATIN AMERICAN EXPORT SPECIALIZATION IN RESOURCE‐BASED PRODUCTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR GROWTH

Given Latin America's general specialization in resource‐based products, this paper focuses on the question of whether or not a country specialized in resource‐based products can have high rates of export and economic growth. To examine this question, an attempt is made to develop and apply a new taxonomy to a sample of resource‐based products exported by Latin American countries to the United States. This taxonomy is based on the role played by prices in the mechanism through which countries compete in specific international product markets. Resource‐based products are then classified as homogeneous, differentiated, or highly differentiated goods. The paper argues that exports of countries specialized in differentiated or highly differentiated goods tend to be much more dynamic than of those specialized in homogeneous goods.     

Can Africa Industrialize by Processing Primary Commodities? The Case of Mozambican Cashew Nuts

Industrialization strategies based on vertical diversification into processing of primary commodities have long been appealing to low-income countries. The performance of such strategies is mixed. An aggregate-level literature is divided on the advisability of low-income countries processing commodities for export, especially for countries relatively poor in human capital. While this general literature usefully illuminates the policy debate over processing cashew nuts in Mozambique, commodity and country specific factors reveal the weaknesses of conducting debate at too aggregated a level. It may be that the most significant constraints on processing industrialization are political rather than purely technical or economic.     

COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS AND THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY SINCE FEDERATION*

Australia has experienced frequent and large commodity export price shocks similar to commodity exporters in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, but this price volatility has had much more modest impact on economic performance. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It identifies two major price shock episodes before the recent mining‐led boom and bust. It assesses their relative magnitude, their impact on de‐industrialisation and distribution during the booms, and the labour market and policy responses to the shocks. Australia has indeed responded differently to volatile commodity prices than have other commodity exporters.     

部分拉美国家人均GDP5000美元时经济社会发展的特征及启示

继上海、北京、天津、浙江等省市后,今后一个阶段我国将有更多的省市跨越人均GDP 5000美元关口。发展经济学认为,一国人均GDP超过5000美元则经济呈加速成长。但部分拉美国家在人均GDP突破5000美元后,经济发展出现大幅振荡,长期原地踏步。笔者总结了部分拉美国家在人均GDP 5000美元左右的经济发展特征,分析了经济社会问题及产生原因,总结提出了我国人均GDP 5000美元后经济社会发展的几点启示。     

基于CMS模型的印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长因素分析

报告了印尼对中国园艺产品出口贸易的现状,采用2010-2014年UN COMTRADE数据,应用恒定市场份额模型（CMS模型）的简化形式,即单一市场份额模型分析印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长的主要影响因素。结果表明印尼园艺产品出口额增长最主要的影响因素是竞争力效应,其次是结构效应,次结构效应的影响最小。从发展优势来看,商品竞争力效应和综合竞争力效应占主要的因素,其次是动态结构效应,最后是产品结构效应和增长效应。为了提高印尼园艺产品的出口额,建议印尼政府能够把出口原料转为出口半成品或最终产品,增加印尼园艺产品的出口附加值。     

Post-crisis export performance: The Indonesian experience in regional perspective

This paper examines post-crisis export performance in Indonesia against the backdrop of pre-crisis experience and the comparative export performance of other Southeast Asian countries. It surveys trends and patterns of export performance, focusing on comparative experience in major commodity categories and changing revealed comparative advantage. It also examines the implications for Indonesia's export performance of China's emergence as a major competitor in world trade, considers market prospects for textile and garment exports following the demise of the Multi-fibre Arrangement, and explores the factors contributing to the post-crisis export slowdown. The findings support the view that Indonesia's poor export performance in the post-crisis era is largely supply driven. They strengthen the case for reversal of recent backsliding in macroeconomic policy reform, and for speedy implementation of the unfinished reform agenda. Prudent macroeconomic management, while necessary, is not sufficient to achieve rapid and sustained export growth in an era of rapid economic globalisation.     

Population Problems of the Countries of Asia

Abstract

This study seeks to explain the variation in U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America and Asia. The analysis focuses on 19 Latin American and Asian countries for the period of 1979–1999. The results show that the variation in the U.S. FDI can largely be attributed to the differences in fundamental economic and social factors such as market size, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, macro-economic stability, the degree of trade openness, and both school enrollment and infrastructure availability. Separating the data into two time periods reveals interesting results about the location decisions for U.S. investors. In addition, the results from the comparison between the two regions show that Latin American countries clearly attract U.S. FDI for different reasons than Asian countries.     

中国与吉尔吉斯斯坦经贸合作的制约因素分析

近年来,中国与吉尔吉斯斯坦经贸合作稳定发展,但同时也存在许多制约两国开展经贸合作的不利因素：两国贸易发展不平衡、两国进出口商品结构单一、口岸建设滞后等。为此。本文提出应通过扩大进口、提高中国对吉国出口工业品的质量、加强口岸基础设施建设和发展口岸经济、增加对吉国的投资等措施来促进两国经贸的合作与发展。     

论我国五金产品如何开拓东欧市场

过去我国五金产品出口一向依赖于美国、日本市场,而近几年来东欧国家尤以俄罗斯为首与中国贸易往来激增。考虑到市场风险分散和着眼于庞大的未来市场商机,东欧市场无疑是我国企业在世界范围开展商务活动新的机遇。如何做好我国的五金产品在东欧的市场开拓工作显得举足轻重。本文旨在通过对我国五金产品进行SWOT即优势、劣势、机遇和威胁分析,对照先前的出口方式与目前的市场体制得出较为适宜的我国五金产品开拓东欧市场的对策。     

Fishing in the same pool: Export strengths and competitiveness of China and Central,Eastern and Southeastern Europe at the EU-15 market

We investigate the impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market, i.e. the fifteen EU members as of 1995. The main aim of the paper is thus to challenge the common view that China crowds out exporters from European markets. The paper takes a comprehensive approach in terms of empirical methods and data. We analyze export growth, export market shares, extensive and intensive margins and the dynamics in the number of joint trade links (Dynamic Trade Link Analysis), applying highly disaggregated data at the 6-digit HS level over the period 1995–2010. We show that the most contested markets are those for capital goods and transport equipment, product categories where both regions have gained market shares and comparative advantage. We show that the number of trade links at the product level where both regions are active has increased substantially, indicating intensified competition. At the same time hardly any trade links were lost, which points against cut-throat competition between CESEE and China. The decomposition of export growth along the extensive versus the intensive margin shows that in line with the literature, the deepening of already existing trade relationships (i.e. the intensive margin) contributed most strongly to export growth in both regions, whereas the contribution of new trade links (i.e. the extensive margin) had only a minor contribution, apart from the instance of EU accession, which boosted the extensive margin considerably. We further decompose intensive margin growth into demand related structural effects and a supplier related competitiveness effect. Both the CESEE region and China successfully intensified their trade linkages above all as a result of their outstanding competitiveness as shown by the econometric shift-share analysis. While this suggests that both regions pursue a suitable export strategy, further diversification of production towards promising new industries and markets will become increasingly crucial for both, especially in face of projected slower EU-15 market growth in the longer run.     

中国对美国出口决策机制实证分析

本文通过误差修正模型,对1994-2007年中国对美出口决策机制进行短期动态分析得到:1994-2001年中国对美出口与美国国内物价指数(GDP deflator)存在显著关系,2002-2007年中国对美出口与美国经济增长率以及出口价格指数密切相关。通过脉冲响应分析得出,长期影响中国对美出口主要因素是美国经济增长率和出口价格指数。     

出口贸易结构变迁对中国经济增长的非对称影响效应研究——基于产品技术附加值分布的贸易结构分析法和动态面板数据模型的经验研究

本文首先基于关志雄(2002)和Lall等(2006)提出的基于产品技术附加值分布的贸易结构分析法构造出口贸易结构指数,考察了1992～2006年中国的出口贸易结构及其变迁,研究结果显示,中国的出口贸易结构变迁大致可以分为三个阶段。在此基础上,本文又采用动态面板数据模型深入分析了中国出口贸易结构变迁对经济增长的影响。定量分析结果表明:从出口总量层面上看,出口总量的增加对中国经济增长具有拉动作用;从出口贸易结构分量层面上看,出口贸易结构变迁对中国经济增长存在显著的非对称影响效应,即高附加值产品出口额的增加对中国经济增长的拉动作用要明显大于低附加值产品出口额的增加对经济增长的拉动作用,这表明出口贸易结构的优化促进了中国经济的长期持续增长。最后,针对中国的对外经贸和宏观经济发展现状,本文提出了优化中国出口贸易结构以促进中国经济可持续性平稳增长的对策建议。     

International Trade and R&D Investment: Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

A current concern for China's long‐term growth prospect is whether China can become an innovative economy and achieve industrial upgrading to compensate for the gradually declining competitiveness resulting from low‐cost labor. The present study examines this issue by exploring how trade participation impacts on the R&D investment of manufacturing firms through various channels. Merging China's Annual Manufacturing Survey Dataset and the Chinese Customs Dataset allows us to study such a relationship at the individual firm level. The empirical results suggest that channels such as geographical diversification of export markets, share of imports from high‐income countries, average unit value of imports, number of intermediate goods and capital goods imports, and the trade regime are significant factors that influence firm‐level R&D investment. The study discusses the policy implications of the empirical findings in relation to industrial and trade policies that may be potentially beneficial for China's transition towards an innovative economy.     

城镇化中的社会保障制度建设：来自拉美国家的教训

拉美国家在历史上出现过经济高速增长和快速城市化的阶段,但是经济增长并没有解决贫困现象和缩小收入差距,出现了“增长性贫困”现象,而收入悬殊限制了经济的进一步增长。社保制度存在缺陷是导致拉美国家增长性贫困的主要原因之一：社保制度严重滞后于城市化进程,住房和就业困难,非正式就业较为普遍;养老保险计划的覆盖面较低,收入再分配难以进行;养老金管理成本居高不下,导致养老保险扩面难;社会保险与社会救助的比重失调,中产阶级成为社会保障制度的最大受益者;社保和教育机会的缺失,造成代际贫困的恶性循环。拉美国家这些教训为我国社保制度的完善提供了很好的借鉴。     

South Africa's titanium industrial policy: A product space perspective

South Africa is a globally significant player in the titanium raw mineral production industry but does not play a large role in its downstream mineral processing. Since downstream activities generate much higher value added, the government has sought to support the end-to-end titanium value chain to capture more value from raw titanium before export through ‘beneficiation’-related policies. This paper applies the input–output product space methodology to generate an overview of those sub-sectors within the titanium value chain that are likely to support long-term economic growth in South Africa. We then evaluate whether the selected global value chain activities are supported by the current industrial policy and/or whether a focus on currently excluded global value chain activities is recommended. Our results confirm that although beneficiation appears to make sense in the titanium industry in South Africa, it should (from a product space perspective) be applied neither automatically nor sequentially moving down the value chain. The paper concludes with the shortcomings of the approach and various avenues for future research.     

The evolution of value added in assembly operations: the case of China and Mexico

China and Mexico embarked, around the early 1980s, on the process of liberalization of trade and FDI and established some export oriented industries through assembly operations with the help of FDI. Both countries had the same objective of increasing value added in export processing industries. The authors examine the comparative achievements of their common objectives in the light of the export oriented strategy hypothesis. Applying the indicators of Revealed Comparative Advantage to exports and imports, the authors show that while there are some similarities in the performance of the two countries, there are also striking differences. Both have managed to increase manufactured exports, particularly in IT products, significantly during 1990s. Both, but particularly China, have developed comparative advantage in export and production of many industries, which had been initiated through import substitution. However, Mexico has achieved little, compared with China, in increasing value added in exports and in developing comparative advantage in production in assembly operations. Further, unlike China, since the early years of the 2010 decade it has not been able to sustain its rapid export growth.