Individual Rationality and the “Zonal Attachment” Principle: Three Stock Migration Models

Shared fish stocks migrate across borders between different countries’ exclusive economic zones. This paper discusses the individual rationality of fish-sharing agreements based on the zonal attachment of such stocks. Three types of migrations are considered: (i) a common stock that grows and reproduces and is then distributed in given proportions between two countries’ zones at the beginning of each fishing season; (ii) sub-stocks that breed and grow independently in their separate zones but spill over between zones according to relative abundance; (iii) a stock that grows and breeds in one country’s zone but migrates into the zone of another if it exceeds a certain size. It is shown that in all these cases the minor partner in a fish-sharing agreement may not have an incentive to cooperate unless he gets a larger share of the cooperative profits than that corresponds to his share of the stock. This is particularly likely to happen when the unit cost of fish does not depend on the stock. An exception could occur if stock migration depends on the stock level; the major partner could then keep the entire stock by fishing it down to a critical level.     

从有限理性到适应性理性

“有限理性之父”西蒙以及行为经济学家卡尼曼等人对人类“理性不及”和偏离理性的非理性行为做过深入系统的描述,并卓有建树,但是他们并未阐释人类决策过程中如何对理性与非理性进行合理有效配置的内在机制。基于此,本文从认知和心智层面,提出了适应性理性的假设命题,探索性地构建了适应性理性理论的解释框架,以一个全新视角,深化了有限理性的思想和内涵,并运用其理论重新阐释了行为决策过程中的认知偏差和简捷启发式的合理性。本文认为人类的经济决策行为同样遵循“心智经济性”的原则。     

Choquet Rationality

Consider a decision problem under uncertainty for a decision maker with known (utility) payoffs over prizes. We say that an act is Choquet (Shafer, Bernoulli) rational if for some capacity (belief function, probability) over the set of states, it maximizes her “expected” utility. We show that an act may be Choquet rational without being Bernoulli rational, but it is Choquet rational if and only if it is Shafer rational. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D81.     

Rationality without Transitivity

In this article rational choice behavior is investigated without assuming transitivity or completeness of the underlying preferences. These standard properties are replaced by a property concerning dominant alternatives. This permits the existence of preference cycles among alternatives which are dominated, while still ensuring the existence of a rational choice correspondence. We will also realize that some rational choice rules still hold in this context. Further we will see that in equilibrium analysis the existence of a competitive equilibrium follows when transitivity and completeness is replaced by this domination property.     

会计信息真实之程序理性观与结果理性观

本文通过对两份问券调查结果的分析,发现上市公司经理人与投资人对会计信息真实性的看法存在显著的视角差异,前者持会计信息真实的程序理性观,而后者持会计信息真实的结果理性观。从目前我国证券市场的现状来看,投资人处于信息严重不对称的弱势地位,上市公司会计信息失真使投资者蒙受了巨大损失。文章据此认为：对上市公司会计信息生成、审计和披露的监管,应偏重于会计信息真实的结果理性观,以保护投资者利益,降低经理人与投资人之间的信息不对称性。     

Rationality and intertemporal choice

The alleged problems associated with self-control, hyperbolic discounting and other examples of seemingly irrational intertemporal choice are examined in the context of an evolution-based neurobiological model that emphasizes the role of the biological evolution of big brains and language and the cultural evolution of institutions. There is no utility function in the brain; it has no central-planner, in fact, the brain is a self-organized complex system, a decentralized spontaneous order. This spontaneous order is coordinated, much like an economy, by a distributed network that maintains and makes available the discounted net value of various options to decentralized and specialized areas in the brain when making decisions. Further, that decision making is embodied and embedded in the decision making environment. For humans, an important part of that environment is the social environment consisting of institutions and other components of culture. It was, in part, the evolution of this environment that made long-range planning possible. Additionally, it is very often the lack of embedded experience with the environment that leads to what seems to be irrational intertemporal choices. In fact, under close examination the evidence for consistent irrational intertemporal choice is weak.     

Substantive Rationality and Backward Induction

S. Modica and A. Rustichini (1994, Theory and Decision37, 107–124) provided a logic for reasoning about knowledge where agents may be unaware of certain propositions. However, their original approach had the unpleasant property that nontrivial unawareness was incompatible with partitional information structures. More recently, Modica and Rustichini (1999, Games Econ. Behav.27, 265–298) have provided an approach that allows for nontrivial unawareness in partitional information structures. Here it is shown that their approach can be viewed as a special case of a general approach to unawareness considered by R. Fagin and J. Y. Halpern (1988, Artificial Intelligence34, 39–76). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D80, D83.     

Rationality in a Political-Economic Environment

This paper develops a rational expectations model of the circle of public opinion and policy implicit in working democracies. The executive branch of government, in particular, takes into account its own preferences and, indirectly, those of the voters, which are not constant but depend on the policy context in which they are formed. As a result, policies and voter preferences become interdependent stochastic processes rather than solutions of static optimization problems. This interdependence has specific implications for policy and opinion. Most striking, when citizens' opinions develop in this environment, the existence of rationally held belief systems is consistent with the pattern of opinion instability Converse attributes to nonattitudes.     

Consumer Rationality and Consumer Sovereignty

Important social benefits of the market system are predicated on the assumption that consumers can effectively pursue their interest in the marketplace. Cause for concern exists to the extent that high consumption expenditures lead to relatively low levels of personal savings in the U.S. To the extent that they do, in fact, over spend, consumers appear to deviate from economic assumptions of rationality. This paper examines four conceptions of rationality (two variants of rational choice theory, institutionalism, and one derived from economic sociology), with a view to evaluating implications for consumer sovereignty under each. By explicitly accounting for differences among individuals, economic sociology appears to offer more realistic policy solutions.     

我国海洋渔业资源利用中个体理性与集体理性的矛盾及其协调

本文论述了海洋渔业资源中个体理性与集体理性矛盾产生的根源，指出并分析了协调这些矛盾的措施：一是限制渔船的数量，二是采取各种措施恢复海洋渔业资源，三是实施配额捕捞制度。在前述分析的基础上作者提出了完善这些措施的对策和建议。     

生态理性对资本主义外部性问题的审视

在资本主义制度及其生产方式下,资本以利润最大化作为其本性,成为资本家首当其冲的问题,而由此造成的"外部不经济"则不在他们的考虑范围内,更不会为了修复"外部不经济"问题而主动买单。在这样的社会价值观指导下,资本逻辑就由人与人的关系转变为物与物的关系,生态问题随即成为资本主义社会的固有顽疾。对此,作为一种理性的生态哲学,生态理性强调整体性的理性,主张人与人、人与自然之间的协调。在这个意义上,生态理性就成为解构资本主义外部性问题或外部不经济的理论路径。     

关于信任的博弈分析——基于个体的自利理性和社会理性

信任的根本在于不完全信息和有限理性,信任是个体弥补自己理性不足的一种策略.所以,信任分析无法在个体的自利理性下完成,需要扩展个体理性的范畴.将个体理性扩展为自利理性和社会理性,利用理性的这种二元特性,重新解释了两个具有代表性的博弈模型--蜈蚣博弈和信任博弈.这不但对信任问题提出了一种新的分析框架,而且还解决了博弈分析的困境.这说明,对个体理性的扩展是合适的,个体的社会理性是经济学不可忽视的一部分.     

Migration of the population

Two factors influence foreign migration balance of the Russian Federation. The first factor involves the migration process between Russia and former union republics. The influx of population to the Russian Federation from other republics of the former Soviet Union is considered as one of the largest in the world. The average annual migratory growth of Russia during the years 1991-94 as a result of this migration exchange has tripled as compared with 1986-90, with a total of 2.7 million Russians who migrated into Russia. However, from 1996 up to the present time, the number of persons arriving in Russia declined dramatically. Meanwhile, the second factor that determines the country's migration balance is emigration to the far abroad. The most significant trend in determining the development of internal migration in Russia is the outflow of population from northern and eastern regions. The directions of internal and external migratory flows have a large influence on the migration balance in Russia's rural areas. The reduction of migratory flows in rural areas is the direct result of processes in the economic sphere. It confirms the reconstruction of rural-urban migratory exchange.     

The One-Shot-Deviation Principle for Sequential Rationality

This article analyzes the fictitious play process originally proposed for strategic form games by Brown (1951) and Robinson (1951). We interpret the process as a model of preplay thinking performed by players before acting in a one-shot game. This model is one of bounded rationality. We discuss how fictitious play should then be defined for extensive form games and conclude that this is somewhat problematic. We therefore study two alternative definitions. For either of these, under a weak condition of initial uncertainty, a convergence point of a fictitious play sequence is a sequential equilibrium. For generic games of perfect information initial uncertainty also implies convergence of fictitious play.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Number: C72.     

追踪肯尼亚动物迁徙

迁徙,是生命永恒的主题。数百万计的角马和斑马浩浩荡荡,追随着雨水和嫩草长途迁徙至此,其间更是需要逃生于食肉动物的追踪捕杀、马拉河汹涌的河水、以及潜伏四周的种种危险。滚滚而来的蹄声和漫天扬起的尘土,万"马"奔腾的壮观场景最好地诠释了它们对于生命的渴望。第一次踏上非洲这片神秘土地的旅行者盛伟,在肯尼亚马赛马拉国家公园一望无际的大草原和蓝天白云下,见证了被誉为世界上不容错过50大奇迹之一的百万草原动物大迁徙,感叹"一辈子见过最多动物一起奔跑,大概就是在肯尼亚Safari这里看动物。"     

浅析中国产业梯度转移路径依赖与产业转移粘性问题

在国际产业转移的发展过程中,不同的时代具有不同的经济背景和技术特征,这些因素的变化将会深刻地影响到国际产业转移。尝试对中国产业转移的路径依赖和产业转移粘性等问题进行简要分析,总结出在全球化进程中中国产业梯度转移面临的两难选择和潜在优势,并提出了政策建议,这在国内目前属于比较新的研究视角。     

理性的边界与个体主义方法论的局限性

本文致力于弄清三个方面的问题：（1）通过梳理在确定性和不确定性条件下理性偏好的最新研究成果,指出理性的边界,揭示主流经济学个体主义方法论的局限性。（2）通过考察阿罗不可能性定理的条件,提出阿罗不可能性定理的逆否命题,探索摆脱阿罗不可能性定理的途径和社会福利函数存在的条件。（3）根据阿罗不可能性定理,指出个体主义方法论在分析个人理性和集体理性、微观经济学和宏观经济学、个人效用和社会福利之间的关系时遭遇的困难,进而提出用整体主义方法论解决此类问题的思路。本文认为,制度和规则是社会的灵魂,在规则的语境下新古典经济学和制度经济学不是对立而是互补的。     

节目主持人在个性与理性中成长

在广播电视的发展中,节目主持人的出现,突破了新闻节目长期形成的播音腔,形成了新闻播音的多样化,使我国的广播电视节目生动活泼,更具魅力。从1981年7月中央电视台播出《北京市中学生智力竞赛》节目,中国国内电视屏幕上第一次打出了“主持人”这一称谓开始,到1993年、1994年中央电视台早间电视新闻杂志栏目《东方时空》和《焦点访谈》的相继问世。