Property Tax Rate Changes and Rates of Development

Theoretically, unanticipated and anticipated property tax rate increases should reduce and increase, respectively, residential development rates. A discrete-time event history analysis of 224 originally undeveloped parcels presents a first empirical test. Property tax rate changes one year in the future are anticipated; increases strongly increase the probability of development in the current year. Rate increases in the current year reduce the probability of development in the current year but with somewhat less certainty, probably because they are only partially unanticipated. Accordingly, pre-announced property tax increases might accelerate the underlying rate of development as effectively as would tax concessions.     

Market size and seasonalities: The case of the UK investment trust industry

The particular characteristics of the UK mutual funds industry provide ideal ground for examining the pertinence of the ‘Small-size effect’ and the ‘tax-loss-selling’ hypothesis. The evidence indicates the presence of a modest-size premium for smaller investment trusts, but, rather surprisingly, size in general does not appear to be a determining factor of market performance. Moreover, in spite of some variation in the rates of return around the turn of the tax year, the evidence as a whole does not unambiguously support the tax-loss-selling hypothesis. However, there is ground to believe that the overall poor performance of the UK investment trust industry could be due to the tax regimen governing the industry's operations during the period 1965–80.     

乡镇企业税收负担、利润水平与农民非农就业——基于协整分析方法

利用1978年至2009年的乡镇企业有关数据,采用协整检验方法、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验方法,对乡镇企业税收负担、利润水平与农民非农就业三者之间的相互关系进行实证研究,结果表明:三者之间存在显著的长期均衡关系;安置就业和税收负担在短期内影响企业盈利情况;安置就业与企业盈利在长期内互为Granger因果关系.因此,国家应综合采取税收优惠、金融支持与政府培训等政策,以提高乡镇企业盈利水平和扩大农民非农就业.     

Identifying interdependent behaviour in an empirical model of labour supply

In this paper we test a particular form of interdependent behaviour, namely the hypothesis that individuals' choices of hours of work are influenced by the average hours of work in a social reference group. There are problems in empirically disentangling the effects of interdependent behaviour and preference variation across groups. We show that panel data or data from several points in time are needed. In the empirical analysis we combine cross-section data from 1973, 1980, and 1990. Our results support the hypothesis of interdependent behaviour. The implication is that conventional tax policy predictions, in which preference interdependencies are neglected, will tend to underestimate the effect of a tax reform on hours of work. Our point estimates suggest that conventional calculations would capture only about a third of the actual change in hours of work. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The heterogeneous impact of taxation on economic development: New insights from a panel cointegration approach

In this paper, we study the role of taxation on long-run income performance. In the theoretical part of the study, we develop a stylized model based on Barro (1990), in which income taxation has two contradictory roles in the standard Solow (1956) setup: on the one hand, taxation appropriates resources that would otherwise be used for physical capital accumulation, and on the other, it is the source of government spending, which is used to support private production. In the empirical part of the study, the impact of consumption tax, personal income tax, corporate profit tax and property tax on income is estimated using the common correlated effects (CCE) panel cointegration approach, which allows for cross-sectional dependencies and provides both panel- and country-specific results. The panel findings for 30 OECD countries for the period of 1995–2016 indicate that only consumption tax has a statistically significant negative effect on long-run income. However, because the type and sign of the tax coefficients are heterogeneous for the country-specific results, we conclude that taxation has heterogeneous effects on income.     

Has the November Effect Replaced the January Effect in Stock Markets?

Results of previous studies support the November effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA) on certain stock portfolios. The rapid growth of mutual funds driven by the fundamental changes in the retirement benefit system in past decades may expand the seasonality from portfolios to stock markets and lead to a replacement of the January effect with the November effect in stock markets. Results of this study support the January effect in the large‐cap and small‐cap stock markets in the pre‐TRA period, although the January effect may share a large portion of co‐variation with the size effect. However, the November effect is independent of the size effect. Furthermore, a major shifting process of the January effect to the November effect occurs in both the large‐cap and small‐cap stock markets. The significant result of the November effect in the post‐TRA period questions the claim that fund managers are capable in mitigating potential price pressures. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trust breeds trust: How taxpayers are treated

Tax compliance has been studied in economics by analysing the individual decision of a representative person between paying and evading taxes. A neglected aspect of tax compliance is the interaction of taxpayers and tax authorities. The relationship between the two actors can be understood as an implicit or “psychological” contract. Studies on tax evasion in Switzerland show that the more strongly the political participation rights are developed, the more important this contract is, and the higher tax morale is. In this paper, empirical evidence based on a survey of tax authorities of the 26 Swiss states (cantons) is presented, indicating that the differences in the treatment of taxpayers by tax authorities can be explained by differences in political participation rights as well. Received: June 2000 / accepted: November 2000     

An Examination into the Relevance of the Median Voter Model: Empirical Evidence Offers Support for the Model and Certain Uses

Abstract . This study analyzes some criticisms of the empirical use of the median voter model. In an attempt to evaluate these criticisms, a local school expenditure model is constructed which incorporates various income measures and various measures of tax price. Results indicate that median income outperforms other income measures. This empirical evidence offers support for the median voter model and its use in empirical work. The median tax price measure proved not to be of statistical significance. It should not be used without independent validation. Moreover, it does not outperform other tax price measures, in this test, at least. Further research is needed to explain this seeming anomaly.     

Paying for performance: Efficiency wages and mutuality

The motivation of individuals lies at the core of corporate governance. For CEOs much research has been directed at the linkage between pay and enterprise performance. The results, however, provide only weak support for the efficacy of profit-related pay. Herein we adopt a different perspective and test for the existence of efficiency wages in a mutual sector wherein the use of traditional control mechanisms is particularly problematic. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that efficiency wages do yield superior performance. We therefore conclude that efficiency wages are a much-needed tool of corporate governance in the mutual sector. Furthermore, as an incentive mechanism, efficiency wages do not require the observability of individual effort, thus they potentially provide an equitable incentive mechanism for all organizations.     

The Impact of Thin‐Capitalization Rules on External Debt Usage – A Propensity Score Matching Approach

Thin‐capitalization rules (TCRs) aim at limiting the tax advantage of internal debt financing by restricting the tax deductibility of the corresponding interest expenses. This article examines how subsidiaries of multinational firms respond to a change in the German thin‐capitalization legislation. The empirical analysis not only demonstrates that the TCR effectively restricts internal debt financing, it also suggests that firms are able to avoid taxation of interest by substituting external for internal debt. The empirical approach applies propensity score matching techniques and exploits the German tax reform 2001 to solve endogeneity problems.     

R&D INTENSITY AND THE EFFECTIVE TAX RATE: A META-REGRESSION ANALYSIS

We apply meta-regression techniques to provide a quantitative review of the empirical literature on how research and development (R&D) expenses affect the effective tax rate (ETR). R&D expenses relate to a well-accepted profit shifting channel, strategic placement of intellectual property within a multinational entity. Using a unique hand-collected data set, we add a new perspective to the current base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) state of research and debate, in three ways: First, observing that primary studies report mixed evidence on how R&D expenses affect ETR, we provide a consensus estimate for this effect. Second, we consider this effect in more detail by separating a tax accounting effect and a profit shifting effect, which to our knowledge has not yet been investigated. We detect that one-third of the R&D effect on the ETR is due to the tax accounting effect and could be mitigated via book-tax conformity. We further find that 10% of the profit shifting effect can be traced back to R&D tax credits. Third, our meta-regression reveals factors that are possible sources of variation and bias in previous empirical studies.     

Payroll taxes,wages and employment: Identification through policy changes

This paper investigates the effect of changes in payroll taxes on wages and employment in Argentina. The analysis, based on administrative data, focuses on the impact of a series of major changes in payroll taxes which varied across geographical areas. This setup offers two main advantages over previous studies. First, using longitudinal data, the variation in tax rates across space and time provides a plausible source of identification of their effects on employment and wages. Second, the use of legal tax rates for each area at each point in time provides a remedy for the measurement error bias raised by the use of empirical rates constructed from observed tax and wage bills. Once this bias is accounted for, the results indicate that changes in payroll tax rates are only partially shifted onto wages, and they point to the absence of any significant effect on employment.     

基于价格预测能力的基金羊群效应模型与算例分析

本文总结了现有羊群效应实证模型的不足,基于基金价格预测能力,构建了可以更加精确地判断每只基金的投资决策作为一种信号是否会对其他基金投资决策带来影响的实证模型。分析结果显示,大多数基金都能够产生明显的羊群效应。本文在模型建立过程中还提出了新的基金评价思路,为更加细致的羊群效应实证研究方法提供借鉴。     

The impact of positive property tax differentials on the timing of development

To date, few empirical studies have focused on the location decision by residential developers in response to changes in the property tax. Based on a dynamic time-to-development model by Turnbull, this paper finds, using 17 years of parcel level data from Saint Louis County, Missouri, that higher than average tax rates increase the time-to-development for vacant parcels by between 4 and 11%, all else equal. Additionally this paper finds that the tax differential effect is cumulative, resulting in about a 20% increase in the time-to-development for the parcel facing the average number of years with a higher than average rate. These results support the analytical results by both Turnbull [Turnbull, G.K., 1988. The effects of local taxes and public services on residential development patterns. Journal of Regional Science, 28 (4), 541–562.] and McMillen [McMillen, D.P., 1990. The timing and duration of development tax rate increases. Journal of Urban Economics, 28, 1–18.] that the property tax can distort residential capital markets leading to inefficient urban growth, or sprawl.     

税收努力对金融发展的影响研究

搜集2002—2021年31个省区市的非平衡面板数据，运用LASSO回归测度税收努力，构建非线性计量模型考察税收努力与金融发展的关系。结果发现：税收努力与金融发展存在显著的倒U形关系，而财政缺口对二者关系起负向调节作用，经内生性处理和一系列稳健性检验后仍成立。异质性检验发现，消费税、西部地区、低出口退税率地区的税收努力与金融发展存在明显的倒U形关系，增值税税收努力决定了总税收努力对金融发展的负面影响。因此，在未来推进金融发展的过程中，既要保持适度税收努力，稳定财政缺口，又要规范地方政府行为，合理界定政府与市场的边界，为地方金融发展创造良好环境，助力实体经济高质量发展。     

Housing capital-gains taxation and homeowner mobility: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997

We provide new evidence on the impact of housing capital-gains taxation on homeowner behavior by examining residential mobility before and after the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97), which generated the most sweeping reform of capital-gains taxation in the last two decades. In addition to lowering marginal tax rates on long-term capital gains for all assets, TRA97 also eliminated any differential treatment of housing gains above and below age 55, allowing all homeowners to qualify for capital-gains exclusions. Utilizing data drawn from the Current Population Survey (CPS) on either side of the law change (1996 and 1998) on homeowners just above (56–58 year olds) and below (52–54 year olds) the age-55 threshold and a reduced-form, difference-in-difference empirical approach, our estimates suggest that the repeal of the differential capital-gains tax treatment by age embodied in TRA97 had an economically important and statistically significant impact on the residential mobility of under-55 homeowners. Across a variety of specifications, the repeal raised the mobility rate by around 1–1.4 percentage points, which, for a mean mobility rate of 4 percentage points, represented an increase in the mobility rate of homeowners in their early 50s by 22–31%. Furthermore, the bulk of this effect was concentrated among highly mobile homeowners who a priori were more likely to have wanted to trade down (e.g., divorced, empty nesters), those facing higher capital gains tax rates, and those living in states that had experienced higher rates of nominal appreciation.     

Is the tax administration just a money machine? Empirical evidence on redistributive politics

Personal income tax represents the main source of tax revenue in any developed country. In this paper, we analyse how efficiently this tax is administered in the Spanish case. While we find that the managerial (or net) efficiency of the tax administration was very high for the period 1993–2002 (95.9%), our main aim here is to identify the determinants of this. Interestingly, political factors are found to play a role. Specifically, the fear of losing a parliamentary seat in a region forces the tax authorities to reduce their efficiency in ensuring tax compliance in that region (“swing voter model”). Additionally, in those electoral districts where the central government obtains higher electoral support the efforts to collect taxes diminish (“core voter model”). However, the former political effect tends to disappear when the central government holds a sufficient majority in the central parliament. Thus, we find empirical evidence on redistributive politics in tax administration.     

出口退税、财政补贴能否提高企业出口强度？——基于货物贸易和服务贸易的对比分析

以出口退税、财政补贴影响企业出口的理论为基础,采用2016年全国税收调查数据和OLS估计法进行实证检验。研究发现：出口退税显著激励企业货物出口强度,而财政补贴显著激励企业服务出口强度;出口退税对加工贸易企业的货物出口激励效应比非加工贸易企业显著,财政补贴对非加工贸易企业的服务出口激励效应更显著;出口退税、财政补贴对自贸区企业的出口激励效应小于非自贸区企业;出口退税、财政补贴对东部企业、涉外企业的出口激励效应较大,私有企业次之,国有企业不显著甚至负效应;出口退税降低企业负债融资,而财政补贴增加企业股权融资,缓解出口的融资约束。     

The London Business School with Gower Publishing

Collapsing oil prices and a falling dollar set the background to a Budget in which the Chancellor, hamstrung by lower oil revenues, was seen as having little room for manoeuvre. In fact the sharp fall in the sterling price of oil has provided him with the perfect excuse for not making significant cuts in personal income tax that were largely irrelevant to the needs of the economy. Instead of a boost to household demand we have had, thanks to OPEC, a transfer to companies in the form of a reduction in costs. This should enable them to expand output against a background of falling inflation. Our post-Budget assessment of macroeconomic prospects (Section I), made on the Treasury's assumption of a $15 oil price, shows output growing by 2 1/2 per cent this year and inflation falling below 3 per cent in 1987. We are thus less optimistic than the Treasury about output but more optimistic about inflation. How was the Chancellor able, within the confines of the Medium-Term Financial Strategy, to give anything away having lost so much oil revenue? A detailed analysis of the PSBR forecast (Section II) reveals good reasons why non-oil tax revenues should be some £3 1/2n higher than forecast this time last year. But, because we still expect public spending to be above the official figures, our PSBR forecast is £1bn higher than the Treasury's. Although the macroeconomic impact of the Budget was small (especially in relation to that of the fall in oil prices which preceded it), it continued the process of tax reform. We focus, in Section III, on the new proposals to deal with the problem of the pension fund surpluses to which we drew attention in the November issue of Financial Outlook. We conclude that the proposed measures could have a larger effect on tax revenues in the longer term than is indicated by the Treasury's Budget estimates.     

管理层股权设置与上市公司绩效的实证研究

本文运用非线性相关分析方法,检验了管理层股权设置(MSR)与公司经营绩效(ROE,Tobin‘sQ)之间的关系。结果表明,两者存在显著的非线性关系。通过系数矩阵的正负统计分析发现,国外学者提出的“利益趋同效应“和“掘壕自守效应“在我国上市公司中同样存在。同时还发现,公司的经营业绩与高管人员的持股比例存在区间效应。实证结果在否定税盾假设、企业成长假设、资产性质相关性假设的同时,肯定规模相关假设。