形成中的计划市场利率：计划利率与市场利率的耦合

计划利率与市场利率耦合成为计划市场利率的可行性研究利率机制是指利率的各构成要素之间的相互联系,相互作用和制约关系所形成的利率运行的自动调节功能。利率运行机制的形成过程,表现为计划利率机制与市场利率机制的耦合过程,这是我国社会主义经济发展的必然趋势。随着经济控制论的产生和发展,“耦合”这一概念的含义不再仅仅是描述物理现象的专有名词,而是被进一步宽泛化。波兰著名经济学家、经济控制论的先驱兰格教授指出:“控制论研究的系统是由依靠因果关系链连结在     

银行固定利率下民间金融市场利率的决定

一、问题的提出 民间金融市场是可以分为高利贷市场、灰色借贷市场和友情借贷市场。其中灰色借贷市场主要就是各种形式的地下钱庄借贷市场。它是民间金融市场的主体。高利贷市场属于国家严厉打击的范围,而且它的用途基本上是用于非生产性领域,所以这里不予研究。而友情借贷市场影响范围有限,而且很多友情借贷也不是完全零利率,而是根据灰色借贷市场的平均利率决定其借贷利率的。所以本文主要研究地下钱庄借贷市场的利率决定。     

我国利率市场化和国际贸易发展

金融越来越成为现代经济的核心,国际贸易则是国民经济的重要组成部分。一直以来,金融与国际贸易都是相互影响、相互作用的。利率市场化作为金融市场的一种调节规则必然对国际贸易产生重大影响。文章从实证角度说明利率市场化与国际贸易的正相关关系,揭示金融发展对国际贸易发展的一般作用机制,并且对我国的利率市场化与国际贸易的相互关系进行探讨并提出相关金融政策建议。     

中国金融资产定价中无风险利率的选择研究

本文通过借鉴国外成熟金融市场无风险利率选择的实践经验，运用我国金融市场的实际数据，从无风险资产的四个方面属性对银行同业间拆借市场、银行间债券回购市场及交易所回购市场等三大资金市场进行了对比分析，认为从银行间债券回购市场中选择回购期限为3—7天的债券回购等金融工具作为我国金融市场无风险资产以及利用R07D(加权)平均利率来估计金融定价中的无风险利率更加具有科学性。     

利率市场化探析

2000年7月19日,中国人民银行行长戴相龙在国务院新闻办举办的记者招待会上明确指出,我国利率市场化要坚持渐进式改革,分步骤推进,先放开外币利率,后放开人民币利率,先放开贷款利率,后放开存款利率,用三年左右的时间完成利率开放的整体计划。至此,我国的利率市场化终于掀起了“红盖头”。一顾名思义,利率市场化就是政府完全或部分放弃对利率的直接管制,使利率由金融市场上资金的供求关系决定,按照价值规律自发调节,从而引起其上下波动,通过在市场机制调节下的利率政策效应来影响和促进货币政策目标的实现和国民经济的发展。从我国目前情况看,…     

对我国金融市场利率机制的评价

一、国债二级市场分析1.发行主体和目的较为单一。目前 ,我国国债市场的发行主体主要是财政部和政策性银行 ,而且后者也是近几年才成立并开始发行债券的。从发债的目的来看 ,发行国债、国家重点建设债券主要是为了筹集建设资金、弥补财政赤字 ,发行特种国债是为了补充国有银行的资本。总体来讲 ,发行债券的主体还不够广泛 ,目的还较单一。商业银行在我国金融体系当中占据重要地位 ,通过发行债券的手段 ,可以补充附属资本的不足 ,调整和改善负债结构 ,推动资产运营 ,扩大商业银行在资本市场运作的深度和广度。然而 ,我国的商业银行 ,基本上还…     

中国离岸市场利率期限结构特征研究——基于面板宏观金融模型的分析

文章以在岸经济与市场为基础和参考,基于面板宏观金融模型,分别对离岸市场上属于短期的香港同业拆借利率(HIBOR)和属于中长期的离岸人民币(CNH)债券市场的期限结构进行了分析.研究发现,两个离岸利率市场具有以下的新特征:首先,离岸与在岸利率市场存在不同的运作规律,离岸利率市场甚至对部分在岸宏观经济变量的未来趋势有更好的判读,从而可用于决策参考;其次,离岸市场中投资者更愿意承担风险去持有人民币资产,这不仅是基于对人民币升值趋势的判断,也是人民币国际化的良好市场信号;最后,中长期的CNH债券市场与短期的HIBOR人民币市场之间的差异表明,人民币虽然在国际经贸往来中相对活跃,但离岸资本市场仍有待加速建设发展.上述结果有利于理解市场化利率的运作机制,也为中国离岸与在岸利率市场的发展完善以及利率市场化提供了参考信息.     

中国利率期限结构分析

我国利率期限结构呈现出一层显式结构和四层隐式结构。以法定利率表为基础形成第一层利率期限结构;经过"就高不就低"计算方式的校正形成第二层利率期限结构;经过保值贴补率校正形成第三层利率期限结构;经过利息税扣除使利率期限曲线产生非平行下移从而形成第四层利率期限结构;最后,须将单利期限结构转换为复利利率期限结构,从而形成第五层利率期限结构。在此基础上提出了改革中国利率期限结构的政策建议。     

An empirical note on Euro market interest rates,domestic interest rates and the expectations theory of the term structure

An empirical analysis of recent monthly data for 8 currencies indicates that the performance of the expectations theory to explain the short term maturity spectrum of Euro interest rates is rather good in most cases and that it is not related to the degree of integration of Euro and domestic markets.     

A principal components analysis of market interest rates in The Netherlands, 1962–1970

This paper reports about a principal components analysis of 20 Dutch market interest rates. We found that on the money market 96% of total variation is explained by the first principal component and 2% by the second one. On the capital market these percentages are 90 and 8.The main conclusions are: (1) the first component identifies the true interest rate, while the second and third component are related to risk and the rate of inflation. (2) The textbook distinction between money and capital markets does not show up. (3) The use of many interest rates in macro models has only a limited economic meaning.     

The effects of monetary policy changes on market interest rates in Greece: An event study approach

The operational procedures of the Bank of Greece underwent major changes during the 1990s. These shifts in operational strategy made interest rates the main tool of monetary policy for the first time in Greece. This paper examines the effects of changes in the bank's operational interest rates on market interest rates at eight maturities and for different operational regimes. A major feature of our study is the application of the event study methodology used in finance, which has not been employed in any previous study on this subject. We find that changes in official interest rates had a significant influence on short-term and intermediate-term rates and that this relationship was affected by the changes in the bank's operational procedure.     

The information content of the term structure of interest rates

The profitability of chartist trading rules on foreign exchange markets is still under debate. Since simple technical trading rules may not adequately capture the complex phenomenon of chartist trading, this study focuses on the prominent head-and-shoulder pattern as a representative trading rule which incorporates various ‘technical’ ideas such as smoothed trends, trend reversal, resistance levels, and volatility clustering. For various combinations of the building blocks of head-and-shoulder definitions the result is generally negative: Returns to head-and-shoulder trading rules are not significantly positive - and if there is any evidence for non-zero returns at all, then it is evidence for negative returns.     

US stock market sensitivity to interest and inflation rates: a quantile regression approach

This article studies the sensitivity of the US stock market to nominal and real interest rates and inflation during the 2003–2013 period using quantile regression (QR). The empirical results show that the stock market has a significant sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation and finds differences across sectors and over time. Moreover, the effect of changes in both interest rates and inflation tends to be more pronounced during extreme market conditions, thus distinguishing expansion periods from recession periods.     

The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy

Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant forecasting ability for the yield spread for segments of the Mexican economy during the 1995–1997 period of economic volatility. The actual and predicted variable changes sometimes conflict with those experienced by developed countries in part because of the unusually close relationship between the Mexican Treasury and the Banco de México. Consequently, analysts and policy officials may exploit the forecast potential of the yield spread, but only in the context of evolving institutional considerations.     

Liquidity and interest rates

This paper analyzes a series of models in which money is required for asset transactions as well as for transactions in goods. In these models, government open-market operations induce liquidity effects that lead to interest rate behavior quite different from the behavior one would predict on the basis of Fisherian fundamentals. The paper characterizes these effects under various assumptions about the nature of securities traded and the behavior of shocks.     

On the constancy of real interest rates

In the context of a small structural model, we show that the autocorrelation and the variance of the ex ante real rate of interest can be uniquely estimated; the random forecasting errors need not confound the problem of identifying variations in the real rate.