我国经济次高增长阶段的宏观政策选择

一、我国经济决高增长阶段的判定依据及宏观调控的政策目标近20年来、特别最近几年以来，我国经济增长格局发生了一系列重大变化：（1）国民经济增长及其波动表现出许多不同以往的新特点。随着我国市场经济体制的逐渐确立和政府宏观政策选择与操作技能的提高，国民经济增长及其波动虽然还经常发生，但已经与过去明显不同。改革开放前国民经济运行的大起大落已不复存在，国民经济增长过程从“短起短落”进一步升华为“短起长落”，卖方市场条件下由通货膨胀拉动的经济增长已被买方市场条件下的需求约束乃至压抑的经济增长所代替。（2）产业构…     

国际油价冲击与中国的经济增长——基于非对称关系视角的分析

本文基于季度数据，引入非对称协整模型，考察国际油价与中国经济增长的动态关系，并鉴于油价波动对不发达经济体可能的冲击，还测度了油价的不确定性并探析其对经济增长的影响，结果表明：（1）从短期来看，国际油价变化是国内经济增长的单向Granger原因，“中国因素”对全球油价变化的影响尚不明显；（2）从长期来看，国际油价和经济增长具有非对称协整关系，油价上涨对经济的影响明显大于油价下跌所产生的效应；（3）国际石油市场存在正反馈交易行为，导致油价波动在油价上涨时表现更加明显。油价不确定性在短期内对经济增长存在负面影响，长期中则不会显著影响经济增长。以上结果意味着必须高度重视石油安全问题，加强油价波动预警与风险管理系统。     

工业发展与我国经济增长和经济波动的相关性分析

本文通过分析和检验工业发展与经济增长之间的关系,发现我国工业产出在经济总规模中所占比重正在逐渐趋于增加,工业产出在水平值上对经济增长产生了正向影响;工业产出增长的波动性是经济周期波动性的重要成分,并对经济周期波动起到连带作用;由于经济周期波动也对工业产出波动具有反馈影响,因此新一轮经济周期中工业产业结构调整和结构优化仍然是重要的政策调控目标.     

效率与平衡结合的经济体制与经济增长

效率与平衡结合的经济体制与经济增长郑文（一）经济体制是影响经济发展的最重要因素。通过分析考察我们可以发现，每一个具体的国民经济都是在它自己正规的和有组织的行为规则的框架内运行的，即都具有自己特定的经济体制。作为一种协调和规范人们的经济关系和经济活动的...     

转变经济增长方式提高经济增长质量

转变经济增长方式提高经济增长质量《转变经济增长方式问题》课题组一、转变经济增长方式的重要性１．我国经济发展的新阶段要求加快经济增长方式的转变理论分析和国际经验告诉我们，经济高速增长的核心在于增长效率提高的推动作用，这个时期的经济增长率中，一般有４０％...     

经济增长与城市化速度和投资驱动

本文利用投资、城市化速度和经济增长构成PSVAR系统，分析了三者之间复杂的相互关系。得到结论：（1）结果支持既有文献关于投资促进城市化、城市化促进经济增长的判断；（2）经济增长对投资的长期弹性为0.490387311，表明投资仍然是我国经济增长的重要驱动力；（3）城市化速度对经济增长的累积响应为 -0.002826893，表明从长期看经济增长会抑制城市化速度，使得城市化进程速度趋缓。根据上述实证结果，我们提出以下建议：投资是我国经济增长的重要驱动力，在鼓励消费和扩大外需的情况下投资也不能忽视，但在我国经济增长方式转型的背景下，我们要依靠有效的投资而不是落后产能和重复投资；经济增长从长期看抑制城市化进程，我国少数大城市集中大量资源，吸引大量人口，但伴随这些高收入，大城市的高生活成本并不利于我国城市化进程的进一步推进，因而我国采取新型城镇化规划，启动国家中心城市布局建设，实现经济空间的优化乃是必要的。     

河南省科技投入和经济增长的关联实证研究

文章以河南省1998—2005年的R＆D经费支出、科技人员投入和GDP数据为基础，利用灰色关联分析对河南省科技投入与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。结论表明：（1）河南省科技投入与经济增长之间存在着十分明显的正相关关系，科技投入是引起经济增长的重要原因；（2）河南省要加强科技投入在经济增长中的促进作用，不仅要关注R＆D经费支出的增加，更要重视科技人员的投入。     

我国未来经济增长与能源消费关系分析

我国未来经济增长与能源消费关系分析陈书通一、未来经济发展规模及结构变化趋势（１）未来经济发展的基本趋势。１９９６～２０１０年作为我国实现第二步战略目标及从第二步战略目标向第三步战略目标迈进的重要时期，国民经济仍将持续保持较高速增长。据多方面预测，我国...     

对外直接投资对东道国经济增长影响路径分析——基于"一带一路"国家投资的面板数据

“一带一路” 的发展导向特征使其不同于现有的区域合作机制, 对外直接投资与东道国经济增长关系具有较大的不确定性。 本文从 “两缺口模型” 和经济增长核算方程入手, 在测算分析 “一带一路” 沿线国家存在资金缺口的基础上, 构建了对外直接投资与东道国经济增长的聚类固定效应模型,研究发现： （1） 中国对外直接投资会促进 “一带一路” 沿线国家的经济增长, 但是促进作用会随沿线国家人均GDP 水平的提高而减弱; （2） 在经济发展相对滞后的阶段, 东道国的技术水平对经济增长的影响并不显著, 随着东道国人均GDP 水平的提高, 东道国的技术水平替代中国对外直接投资成为经济增长的动力; （3） 资本和劳动投入是 “一带一路” 国家经济增长的重要源泉。     

经济增长方式与经济增长代价

一切均需付代价。经济增长同样需付代价。然而，是以高代价换得短期的飞速增长的“高效经济”还是以低代价赢得长远的可持续发展的经济，则是值得我们深思的大问题。改革几十年我们为经济高速增长所付出的高昂代价以及其他发展中国家的历史教训告诉我们：粗放型、速度型的经济增长方式有其局限性；要实现真正的低代价的经济增长、经济发展，就要为其寻找真实的动力和坚实的基础，这真实的动力和坚实的基础就是提高劳动生产率，提高科技贡献率，提高管理效益，优化产业结构，提高国家经济质量，而这一切只能依靠科技、文化、教育、卫生等社会事业的发展和社会整体素质的提高。     

基于波动率指数的期权对冲策略研究

波动率指数反映了期权投资者对未来市场波动性的预期,被用作衡量市场风险的重要依据。试图应用波动率指数来构建一种风险收益特性类似于债券的期权投资策略,即寻找市场中隐含波动率较相应的波动率指数高估或低估的期权品种并进行建仓,再用标的现货使组合保持delta中性。最后采用香港恒生指数期权数据进行了实证分析,结果显示该策略具有一定的实用价值,对期权投资具有一定的参考意义。     

Once bitten twice shy? Experience managing violent conflict risk and MNC subsidiary‐level investment and expansion

Research summary : Researchers have increasingly emphasized the need to better understand how context affects the value of experiential learning. We address this gap by investigating when corporate‐level experience can be leveraged across borders and when experience needs to be country‐specific to be valuable. We test our hypotheses using a unique multi‐source panel dataset of 379 large MNCs from 29 home countries and their subsidiaries in 117 host countries over a 10‐year period, 1999–2008. In contrast to prior research, we find that the ability of a firm to leverage its experience with political risk across borders is limited by the type of risk involved. Experience with nonstate violent conflicts may be transferrable, but only country‐specific experience appears to yield measureable benefits for conflicts involving the host country government . Managerial summary : Violent conflicts not only increase social unrest but also impose added costs of doing business. For managers who find themselves in the midst of violent conflicts or who wish to survive and potentially gain a competitive advantage in operating in such challenging environments, is it possible to learn to manage such a seemingly “unmanageable” problem? In contrast to studies that have examined other types of political risk, we find that the ability of a firm to leverage its experience with violent conflict risk across borders is limited. Specifically, only country‐specific experiential knowledge about how the host government prepares and manages such conflict risks yields measureable economic benefits for MNCs and their subsidiaries operating in countries during conflict . Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

外部性与产业增长——来自中国省级面板数据的研究

本文利用我国29个省、市、自治区25个产业的面板数据研究了外部性对于地区产业增长的影响,结果发现:在全国样本范围内,专业化水平与产业增长之间存在着负向关系;竞争程度与地区产业增长之间存在着正向关系;多样化程度与产业增长之间存在着一种非线性关系,当多样化程度较低时,多样化不利于产业增长,而当多样化水平较高时,多样化则会促进产业增长。在分地区分产业的分析中,产业多样化水平对经济增长的作用在很大程度上取决于产业的性质(高度规模经济产业或低度规模经济产业)及产业的地理区位(沿海地区或内陆地区)。     

Political capabilities,policy risk,and international investment strategy: evidence from the global electric power generation industry

Whereas conventional wisdom holds that multinational enterprises (MNEs) invest less in host countries that pose greater policy risk—the risk that a government will opportunistically alter policies to expropriate an investing firm's profits or assets—we argue that MNEs vary in their response to host‐country policy risk as a result of differences in organizational capabilities for assessing such risk and managing the policy‐making process. We hypothesize that firms from home countries characterized by weaker institutional constraints on policy makers or greater redistributive pressures associated with political rent seeking will be less sensitive to host‐country policy risk in their international expansion strategies. Moreover, firms from home countries characterized by sufficiently weak institutional constraints or sufficiently strong redistributive pressures will seek out riskier host countries for their international investments to leverage their political capabilities, which permit them to attain and defend attractive positions or industry structures. We find support for our hypotheses in a statistical analysis of the foreign direct investment location choices of MNEs in the electric power generation industry during the period 1990–1999, the industry's first decade of internationalization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上市公司现金持有:权衡理论还是啄食理论

本文根据2000—2005年沪深股市586家A股上市公司的数据,考察了上市公司现金持有比率的决定因素。实证发现投资水平、资产负债率、现金替代物与现金持有比率负相关,债务期限结构和每股股利与现金持有比率正相关,现金流、企业规模、现金流波动率和财务实力的影响随不同的成长性而不同。实证结论更多地支持了啄食理论。     

区域高校经费投入与经济发展关系的实证分析

利用1998—2006年中国各地区数据，得用面板数据模型对区域高校经费投入与经济发展的关系进行了实证分析，结果表明高校经费投入与经济发展正相关，且经济越落后，教育负担越重。     

Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

This paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992–1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the country's exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two-way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks.     

On the Relation between Local Amenities and House Price Dynamics

This study explores the extent to which local amenities are related to house price volatility, returns and risk‐adjusted returns across 238 MSAs. We find strong evidence that high amenity areas experience greater price volatility. In regards to returns, high amenity areas experience greater (lower) real returns in appreciating (depreciating) markets. However, high amenity areas experience little to no abnormal risk‐adjusted returns. Results from the study are robust to an endogenous treatment of amenities and land supply elasticity. Overall, we conclude that the desirability of a metropolitan area is a significant channel through which land values drive house price dynamics.     

转轨背景下国债与经济增长关系的长短期动态研究——基于SVAR模型的实证分析

本文使用1994～2015年中国宏观经济数据,利用SVAR模型对转轨背景下我国国债发行的经济增长效应进行长短期的动态实证研究,分析结果显示：短期范围内我国国债对经济具有提升作用,但在长期我国国债规模的持续膨胀将会阻碍经济的稳定健康发展。而且,从脉冲响应图可以看出我国国债对私人投资存在先挤入后挤出效应,通过我们进一步对模型中各经济变量进行方差分解以后我们发现,从长期角度来看,私人投资比国债对经济和投资波动的解释程度要大,但没有国债对于通货膨胀波动的解释程度大。最后,根据我国目前的经济形势提出了转轨时期如何科学管理我国国债的相关建议。     

Risk and Return in the U.S. Housing Market: A Cross-Sectional Asset-Pricing Approach

This article carries out an asset-pricing analysis of the U.S. metropolitan housing market. We use ZIP code–level housing data to study the cross-sectional role of volatility, price level, stock market risk and idiosyncratic volatility in explaining housing returns. While the related literature tends to focus on the dynamic role of volatility and housing returns within submarkets over time, our risk–return analysis is cross-sectional and covers the national U.S. metropolitan housing market. The study provides a number of important findings on the asset-pricing features of the U.S. housing market. Specifically, we find (i) a positive relation between housing returns and volatility, with returns rising by 2.48% annually for a 10% rise in volatility, (ii) a positive but diminishing price effect on returns and (iii) that stock market risk is priced directionally in the housing market. Our results on the return-volatility-price relation are robust to (i) metropolitan statistical area clustering effects and (ii) differences in socioeconomic characteristics among submarkets related to income, employment rate, managerial employment, owner-occupied housing, gross rent and population density.