基于实物期权法的林木资产价值评估——以江西吉安东固采育林场为例

合理评估林木资产的价值对于林权流转业务的健康发展具有重要意义。传统资产评估方法忽略了林木资产所包含的选择权,而实物期权法能够反映不确定性带来的柔性价值,在一定程度上弥补了传统评估方法的缺陷。文章在充分剖析林木资产实物期权特征的基础上,对实物期权法在林木资产价值评估领域应用的必要性和可行性进行了分析,并对Black-Scholes期权定价模型关键参数的确定方法进行了探讨。另外,以江西吉安东固采育林场的一项林木资产评估为案例,比较了实物期权法与传统方法的实际应用。     

矿业权资产的期权估价

期权估价是一种新的矿业权资产评估方法。同现有的其他评估方法相比,期权估价在设置决策变量方面具有更大的灵活性,例如可将矿山经营状态设置为暂停开采、恢复开采或永久性关闭。应用期权估价法进行矿业权资产评估要比对其他实物资产的评估更为复杂,因为无法直接获得执行价,而只能将开发矿产储量或矿产资源量的投资成本转换为执行价。而这正是在矿业权资产评估中使用Black-Scholes期权估价模型的技巧所在。考虑到将公司经营策略融入到矿业权资产评估中的重要性,带有政策变量的期权估价应是这类矿业权资产评估方法的最佳选择。文章以澳大利亚世纪锌矿期权估价和Antucoya斑岩铜矿矿业权资产期权估价为应用实例,说明期权估价方法的操作过程。     

基于实物期权的城市供水PPP项目投资决策分析

为解决城市供水PPP项目中实物期权的价值合理界定问题,通过分析城市供水PPP项目的期权特性,采用二叉树实物期权定价模型对项目中隐含的期权进行定价,并运用模糊综合评价法对项目的复合期权价值加以完善,建立城市供水项目的价值评估模型,完善了传统的城市供水项目价值评估方法,并通过案例分析,验证了将实物期权法引入到价值评估中有助于合理界定城市供水PPP项目的不确定性价值,准确反映项目的实际价值,从而为投资者提供有效的决策依据。     

基于期权的林木产权评估方法

以活立木形式赋存的林木产权除具有一般资产特征外,还具有自然增值性、可扩张性和可延迟采伐的特性,具有一般实物期权的特征,但在评估上与一般资产有较大的不同。将林木产权看作实物期权,在考虑投资时间价值及未来收益不确定性基础上,利用Black-Scholes期权模型对林木产权的期权价值进行估算,从而可为林木产权的拍卖提供一定的参考标准。     

实物期权定价法在林业上市公司价值评估中的应用

通过分析实物期权定价法在企业价值评估方面的特点,最终选取B-S期权定价模型对林业上市企业进行价值评估。借鉴并修正传统的B-S期权定价模型,利用修正后的模型对6家林业上市公司进行价值评估。进而通过与市场价值对比、敏感性分析等方法对评估结果进一步验证。结果显示,企业的市场价值围绕评估价值上下波动,且评估结果对参数的变化不敏感,修正后的B-S期权定价模型对林业上市公司的评估结果具有客观性和稳定性。     

上市公司整体价值评估方法及应用

在市场经济体制和资本市场深入发展的过程中，企业价值评估理论和方法成为人们日益关注的热点问题。本文对相对估价法、现金流贴现法、期权定价法的基本原理、依赖的前提条件及其适用场合进行分析，结论表明：综合多种价值评估方法是解决上市公司价值评估的有效途径．     

政府经营性土地储备供应决策——基于实物期权的理论模型

研究目的:探讨政府的经营性土地储备供应决策方法,以增加出让收入及抑制开发商囤地行为。研究方法:实物期权理论,案例研究法。研究结果:(1)将土地供应权视为基于房产的实物期权,推算出了最优供应时机和理论价值,研究发现市场不确定性将提高土地期权价值,并使最优供应时机延后;(2)案例比较分析发现,地块的实际出让时间越接近理论最优供应时机,出让收入越高,但实际上政府对地块并未做出准确的价值判断。研究结论:(1)依据实物期权模型做出的土地储备供应决策更能有效地把握市场形势波动的时机;(2)模型在中国的应用需要可监督的公共财政体系以及财政分成体制改革。     

用实物期权法评估矿产资源开发项目投资价值

要做好矿产资源开发项目的投资决策,就必须对该项目进行精确地估价,传统的净现值方法在评估矿产资源开发项目时存在重大缺陷.本文运用实物期权方法,对矿产资源开发项目的价值进行了准确合理的评估.     

实物期权法应用文献综述

互联网企业价值评估需要注意其特殊性,不可完全套用传统企业价值评估方法。实物期权法的使用逐渐受到学界重视,在企业价值评估中的应用非常频繁。因此,从国内外两个方面对实物期权法在互联网企业价值评估中的研究作梳理,以期明确研究现状,为后续理论发展提供参考。     

评价林业投资的实物期权方法

评价风险较高的林业投资,传统的净现值法(NPV)容易低估项目的价值,不能客观地对林业投资做出正确评价。林业项目的不确定性反映了林业投资具有一定的期权特性,因此本文基于实物期权的理论和方法,建立了林木采伐的实物期权决策模型,将林木收益问题当作一个实物期权问题处理,应用实物期权模型来决定林木最佳采伐时机。     

Choice Modelling: Assessing the Environmental Values of Water Supply Options

Three criticisms of the contingent valuation method (CVM) are considered in this article. One technique that would appear to answer such criticisms is choice modelling (CM). CM permits value estimates for different goods sharing a common set of attributes to be pieced together using the results of a single multinomial (conditional) logit model. The CM approach to environmental value assessment is illustrated in the context of a consumer-based assessment of future water supply options in the Australian Capital Territory. CM is found to provide a flexible and cost-effective method for estimating use and passive use values, particularly when several alternative proposals need to be considered.     

城镇土地估价的相关技术标准分析--<城镇土地估价规程>与<房地产估价规范>比较

研究目的比较分析<城镇土地估价规程>与<房地产估价规范>在技术标准上的差异性,确定未来城镇土地估价的技术规范方向.研究方法文献资料法和比较分析法.研究结果(1)两个技术标准都强调价格的正常性,但土地估价更多从权益角度考虑,突出出让土地使用权的地位,房地产估价更多地从正常市场交易的价格前提考虑,从而导致估价基础的差异;(2)二者估价的方法相近,但术语用词、应用要求存在差别,特别是基准地价的制定和应用在土地估价中有着重要的地位;(3)对土地权益和与之相关的估价目的,土地估价重视不同用途和各种权利状况下的估价操作,房地产估价则重视具体目的估价时对合法原则的遵循.研究结论两个技术标准应逐步统一,以适应规范市场的发展需要,其关键在于明确基准地价在中国估价技术中的重要地位；规范统一专业术语；统一估价目的方法应用要求。     

Mycogen as a Case Study in Real Options

This article provides a primer on the use of real options valuation in a strategic agribusiness setting. Using the Mycogen case study as an example, the article provides a qualitative approach to strategic risk management. The article introduces a number of real options such as the option to wait and the option to learn and illustrates how prudent use of these options can give rise to firm value in an agribusiness setting.     

Optimising adaptation decisions in macadamia production using contingent claim valuation

Altering production systems and land management of tree crops is a costly, disruptive and ultimately irreversible decision. Using traditional valuation methods to appraise long‐term land management outcomes ignores the full impact of irreversible or delayed decisions. We employ a variant of the real options decision process to examine uncertainties around climatic effects on macadamia growers and the explicit decision to adapt via cultivar replacement. We examine the trade‐offs between the timing of the decision to replace macadamia cultivars by considering both the value of flexibility as well as the value of new information that can be used to resolve uncertainty. We compare the relative responses that generate the most value for growers across four geographical locations. We show that simple switching decisions using traditional valuation methods are found to be suboptimal and initiate poor decisions, potentially undermining adaptation efforts. As the rate of orchard degradation increases, the need to transition to higher‐yielding cultivars becomes greater, especially for Hawaii, California and Australia where gross margins are leaner. Investment decisions are thus highly dependent on both local conditions and the economic structure of existing production systems.     

Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming

This paper compares two well-known approaches for valuing a risky investment using real options theory: contingent claims (CC) with risk neutral valuation and dynamic programming (DP) using a constant risk adjusted discount rate. Both approaches have been used in valuing forest assets. A proof is presented which shows that, except under certain restrictive assumptions, DP using a constant discount rate and CC will not yield the same answers for investment value. A few special cases are considered for which CC and DP with a constant discount rate are consistent with each other. An optimal tree harvesting example is presented to illustrate that the values obtained using the two approaches can differ when we depart from these special cases to a more realistic scenario. We conclude that for real options problems the CC approach is preferred when data exists (such as futures prices) that allow the estimation of the market price of risk or convenience yield. Even when such data do not exist we argue that the CC approach is preferred as it has the advantage of allowing the individual specification of the prices of different sources of risk.     

基于EVA模型的造纸业上市公司投资价值评估的应用探讨——以T公司为例

投资者在对造纸业上市公司进行投资时,事前都会先对其投资价值进行评估,其选用的评估方法也多种多样。其中,EVA模型价值评估法从投资者的角度出发,在估值时将公司的资本成本纳入考虑范围,能够比较客观地反映公司的业绩成果。选用这一方法;同时考虑到造纸业行业的特点,将企业对排污处理的环保投资成本也包含在内,探究EVA指标在造纸行业中的具体应用价值,提出了相关建议。     

Modelling property values in Nigeria using artificial neural network

Unreliable and inaccurate property valuation has been associated with techniques currently used in property valuation. A possible explanation for these findings may be due to the utilisation of traditional valuation methods. In the current study, an artificial neural network (ANN) is applied in property valuation using the Lagos metropolis property market as a representative case. Property sales transactions data (11 property attributes and property value) were collected from registered real estate firms operating in Lagos, Nigeria. The result shows that the ANN model possesses a good predictive ability, implying that it is suitable and reliable for property valuation. The relative importance analysis conducted on the property attributes revealed that the number of servants’ quarters is the most important attribute affecting property values. The findings suggest that the ANN model could be used as a tool by real estate stakeholders, especially valuers and researchers for property valuation.     

Predicting uncertainty: the impact of risk measurement on value of real estate portfolios

This paper presents a theoretical framework for an assessment and valuation of real estate assets and funds, based on modern stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) models, which accurately captures the nature of related risks. We show that an accurate risk-adjusted valuation is particularly difficult for real estate investments, due to practical limits to diversification and difficulties in approximating total risk with systematic risk. We develop a risk assessment framework that includes idiosyncratic risk but focuses on insolvency risk related to a specific cash flow profile. We also present a methodology of rating this risk, using forecasts and simulations. We conclude that simulation techniques are a valuable tool in property risk assessment. Further, we show that cost of capital and value of assets depend on diversification of specific risks, investors can achieve in their portfolios.