Federal Home Loan Bank Advances and Bank and Thrift Holding Company Risk: Evidence from the Stock Market

Using bivariate GARCH models of stock portfolio returns and risk, we find that bank and thrift holding companies that relied the most on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances exhibited less total risk and market risk than those that relied on them the least between 2001 and 2012. When we control for differences in holding company size, stock trading volume, residential mortgage lending, and holding company type (bank vs. thrift), the most FHLB‐reliant holding companies sustain the aforesaid risk advantages except during the crisis of 2007–2009, when they exhibit greater idiosyncratic risk. The latter finding suggests that investors perceived the high reliance of the borrowing institutions on advances as a sign of distress. Portfolios that consist of only bank holding companies show qualitatively similar results.     

Savings and Loan Demand for Liquid Assets: Theory,Evidence and Implications for Policy*

In this study a model of liquid asset management for individual savings and loan associations is developed. The model combines features of portfolio theory and inventory theory and is used to draw hypotheses on the relationship between the demand for excess liquidity and a variety of independent variables. Pooled cross section-time series equations are estimated for the demand for excess liquidity of 198 S & Ls over the period 1974–1978. In addition to conclusions on the role of individual variables, the estimated equations reveal that the FHLBB can affect the portfolios of some, but not all, S & Ls. This implies that FHLBB liquidity policy can have an effect on the mortgage market.     

Do Deposit Rates Cause Mortgage Loan Rates?: The Evidence from Causality Tests

This paper applies two familiar causality detection techniques to the issue of whether it is costs that determine prices or vice versa in the mortgage loan market. The question is posed in terms of causal priority: Are savings and loan deposit rates causally prior to mortgage loan rates or is it the other way around? For the time period prior to the onset of deposit interest rate deregulation, the evidence that emerges is consistent with the view that lenders raised their loan rates in response to higher deposit rates of interest. However, for the more recent period of deregulation, the evidence is not consistent with this view.     

Housing-Market Segmentation and Demand for Housing Attributes: Some Empirical Findings

In this paper, we have empirically estimated demand equations for housing attributes, using a two-step approach in conformity with the procedure proposed by Sherwin Rosen. The identification problem inherent in Rosen's procedure has been avoided by estimating separate equations for distinct market segments in the first step. The estimates of the demand functions obtained in the second step are consistent with theoretical expectations.     

The Effects of Megamergers on Efficiency and Prices: Evidence from a Bank Profit Function

This paper examines the efficiency and price effects of mergers by applying a frontier profit function to data on bank megamergers. We find that merged banks experience a statistically significant 16 percentage point average increase in profit efficiency rank relative to other large banks. Most of the improvement is from increasing revenues, including a shift in outputs from securities to loans, a higher-valued product. Improvements were greatest for the banks with the lowest efficiencies prior to merging, who therefore had the greatest capacity for improvement. By comparison, the effects on profits from merger-related changes in prices were found to be very small.     

The Small Firm in a Quantity Choosing Game: Some Experimental Evidence

We demonstrate with a grim trigger strategy that the small firm should be more willing to collude tacitly as its market share declines; large firms should be less willing to cooperate. The small firm is not a maverick. The intensity of rivalry between two firms with asymmetric market shares is studied in experimental markets. Treatments give duopolists (1) 50% shares, (2) a 60 or 40% share, and (3) an 80 or 20% share. Choices for the small firm in the latter treatments are not significantly larger than the collusive choice. Irrespective of relative size, firms in all three market environments exhibit collusive behavior.     

The Effect of Mortgage Payment Reduction on Default: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinance Program

This article evaluates the effect of payment reduction on mortgage default within the context of the Home Affordable Refinance Program. We find that mortgage default is sensitive to payment reduction using univariate, duration and hazard modeling approaches. A relative risk Cox model of default with time‐varying covariates estimates that a 10% reduction in mortgage payment is associated with about a 10–11% reduction in monthly default hazard for loans. This finding is robust to the inclusion of empirically important mortgage risk drivers (such as current loan‐to‐value and FICO score) as well as controlling for selection effects based on observables.     

The Demand for Housing Additions: An Empirical Analysis

Little is known of a household's decision to make a housing addition despite the large and growing size of these expenditures. This paper examines this decision in a two-step empirical process: first, those factors that influence the probability of a housing addition are determined, and second, the value of the addition made is analyzed. Preliminary results indicate that unmet housing consumption needs, but not the investment potential of housing additions, have a significant impact on both the probability of an addition and the value of an addition made. Furthermore, ceteris paribus, non-white households have a greater probability of making a housing addition, and on average, spend more on housing additions than do white households.     

The Impact of Size and Age on Firm-Level Performance: Some Evidence from India

Using contemporary data for an extensive sample of 1020 Indian firms, this paper investigates the impacts that size and age of firms have on firm-level productivity and profitability. In India older firms are found to be more productive and less profitable, whereas the larger firms are, conversely, found to be more profitable and less productive. These performance differences are explained as arising from the market-restricting industrial policies that have been followed in India over the past three decades.     

美国高校贷款融资运营与管理的经验及启示

目前我国高校市场化融资主要靠银行贷款,引发了一系列风险和问题,使得高校市场化融资陷入困境。而美国高校债务融资的历史经验非常值得我们学习和借鉴,我国政府和高校,以及商业银行都可以借鉴美国经验,采取相应的措施,共同努力解决目前的债务危机问题。     

The Determinants of Entry are not Independent of Start-up Size: Some Evidence from Spanish Manufacturing

In this paper we explore the determinants of firm start-up size of Spanish manufacturing industries. The industries’ barriers to entry affect the ability of potential entrants to enter the markets and the size range at which they decide to enter. In order to examine the relationships between barriers to entry and size we applied the quantile regression techniques. Our results indicate that the variables that characterize the structure of the market, the variables that are related to the behaviour of the incumbent firms and the rate of growth of the industries generate different barriers depending on the initial size of the entrants. JEL classifications: L110, L600.     

Hedging Forward Mortgage Loan Commitments: The Option of Futures and a Future for Options

The purpose of this paper is to analyze theoretically the problem of how mortgage lending institutions assume the interest rate risks inherent in the granting of fixed-rate mortgage loan commitments.
Two approaches to hedge this risk are analyzed. First, the use of the GNMA futures market is evaluated from the standpoint of how it might be used to hedge against mortgage commitment risks. Secondly, the use of an appropriate pricing model—the Black-Scholes option pricing model—is offered as a proxy for establishing the market value of a fixed-rate mortgage commitment. This model is extended and empirically estimated for several hypothetical environments.
The paper demonstrates a basic flaw in the GNMA futures market as a hedge against mortgage commitments. Once this is established, the use of the options pricing approach is offered as a more rational approach for hedging these risks.     

The Demand for International Message Telephone Services: A Two-Stage Budgeting Model

This paper examines demand for international telephone services. Using panel data covering 57 routes over 6 years, a model featuring a two-stage budgeting process and product differentiation is implemented for empirical estimation. A range of economic, social, cultural and technological variables are included in the aggregate-level model to study overall demand. The unique and rich data offers an opportunity to examine the impact of new technology innovations such as Internet on traditional telephone services. The company-level model incorporates product differentiation and uses the Almost Ideal Demand System to simultaneously estimate demands for and competition between carriers.     

Work–Life Balance and the Demand for Reduction in Working Hours: Evidence from the British Social Attitudes Survey 2002

Work–life balance policies aimed at reducing working hours are often assumed to be of particular interest to workers with family responsibilities such as young children. Although workers in Britain report the kind of time‐stress envisaged by the debate over a ‘long‐hours culture’, there is little relationship between workers’ family situation and preferences for working fewer hours. Women workers’ hours already reflect family commitments to some extent, while families with young children may need the income levels that only substantial working hours bring. Conversely workers without family commitments may have more capacity to swap income or career progression for increased leisure time.     

The Relationship between Median and Constant Quality House Prices: Implications for Setting FHA Loan Limits

This paper examines the relationship between the asset price of housing and median sales price. We demonstrate: (1) median house prices (as reported by the National Association of Realtors) overstate the increase in constant-quality house prices by about 2% per year over the 1976–1985 period; and (2) regional differences in median house prices and their rates of increase, respectively, are systematically related to regional differences in real incomes and their rates of increase. We use these results to evaluate the recent proposal to raise the FHA maximum loan limit ceiling from the current ceiling of $124,750 to 95% of the area median house price.     

The Implications of Demand Instability for the Behavior of Firms: The Case of Residential Construction

The position of the new residential construction sector as a large but very volatile component of total investment has provoked much study of the causes of that volatility and of its relation to the stability of the economy as a whole. There has never been, however, serious analysis of the assertion that this same volatility of housing starts, by creating an unstable environment for firms operating in the industry, serves to increase the cost of producing and marketing housing.
This paper will focus on the phenomenon of demand instability as it affects firm behavior. It approaches the demand instability problem from two distinct but complementary perspectives. The first part sets forth a theoretical conception of the manner in which demand instability should influence any firm's organization and operations. The second part presents an analysis of interviews conducted with representatives of a number of firms which supply materials for residential construction. This analysis provides a partial test of the theory and offers insights into areas on which theory alone sheds little light.     

Learning by Doing and Spillovers: Further Evidence for the Semiconductor Industry

Learning spillovers in the production of EPROMs areinvestigated. It turns out that spillovers aresignificant, even though internal learning is thepredominant source of learning. Concerning externallearning, it does not appear to particularly matterwhether this comes from domestic rivals or foreigncompanies. There is some indication that Japanesecompanies have a steeper learning curve and with somegenerations are better able to appropriate externallearning from foreigners. Intergenerational learningis pervasive, which seems to provide competitiveadvantages to first movers. It could explain thepersistence of leadership of Intel in this industryacross a series of generations. Moreover, it coulddeliver scope for policy intervention.