Rational Expectations and the Defris-Williams Inflationary Expectations Series*

This paper evaluates the Defris-Williams inflationary expectations series as a measure of rational expectations for the period 1973(1) to 1980(2). The results show that the series violates the rationality criterion, being an inefficient and biased predictor of inflation. By constructing an ‘information-augmented’ D-W series, the quantitative importance of omitted information available to consumers at the time of making their forecasts is isolated. The key omitted economic variables are found to be lagged monetary growth and unemployment or an indexation dummy which explains 70 percent of the forecast error of the D-W series. These results suggest that a theoretically constructed expectations series may prove to be a superior measure of market expectations of inflation in Australia.     

The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia*

This paper analyzes the quantitative price expectations of consumers as obtained from consumer surveys. Price expectations are considered as functions of (i) past rates of inflation (ii) other economic variables, and (iii) consumer sentiment variables. The dominant influence on expectations is the most recent change in the consumer price index. Wage-indexation decisions and changes in the money supply also exert a significant influence on mean expectations. The variability of price expectations across consumers is proportional to the mean level of expectations.     

Life-Cycle Consumption under Rational Expectations: Some Australian Evidence*

Using Australian data, this note tests the srochastic implications of Hall's (1978) national-expectations life-cycle consumption model. The strong version of the hypothesis can only be rejected using lagged values of the change in the unemployment rate and a particular measure of disposable income.     

A Geometric Analysis of Exchange Rate Adjustment Under Static and Rational Expectations*

This note presents a simple geometric apparatus for analyzing macroeconomic questions relating to small open economies. The particular problem analyzed here for illustrative purposes is the adjustment of a floating exchange rate regime, under both static and rational expectations, to a step increase in the money supply. We consider both an unanticipated immediate increase and an unanticipated announcement of a forthcoming increase. We derive the general criterion which determines whether the exchange rate initially overshoots or undershoots the change required for long-run equilibrium.     

Inflationary Expectations, Variable Output, and Exchange-Rate Dynamics

This paper develops a model of exchange-rate dynamics characterized by inflationary expectations held with perfect foresight, sticky wages, and sluggish output adjustment. In this framework monetary expansion initially lowers interest rates because of sluggish output and price adjustment but quite surprisingly produces exchange-rate overshooting or undershooting. Moreover, after its initial depreciation in the overshooting case, the domestic currency temporarily appreciates beyond its new long-run equilibrium level. In the undershooting case, the home currency temporarily appreciates away from its new long-run equilibrium level. Finally, the dynamic real exchange rate-real interest rate relationship at times becomes inverse.     

Regime Switches, Biased Expectations, and the Brazilian Inflationary Experience

The paper analyzes how an error in inflation expectations helped maintain high interest rates in the wake of the major stabilization plans launched in Brazil over the past 18 years. Newly implemented low-inflation measures lacked credibility and forced agents to expect a higher inflation rate than the one effectively observed, creating a wedge between ex-post and ex-ante real interest rates. The results also indicate that past failures have helped undermined the credibility of new measures.     

理性预期和适应性预期股价模型的比较研究

本文首先介绍了理性预期股价模型和适应性预期股价模型 ,并对两种模型的定价方法和实证分析结果进行了比较 ,得出了较理性预期模型而言 ,适应性预期模型对于成熟股票市场有更强的解释能力 ,结论对我国股市有一定借鉴意义。     

Alternative Measures of Australian Consumer Inflationary Expectations: Their Relation to Attitudes and Prices

This article was written by Dr L. V. Defris, Lecturer in Economics at Deakin University. It was originally part of a broader joint study of consumer inflationary expectations, with R. A. Williams. The author is greatly indebted to Professor Williams for discussion and development of the analysis.     

Price Rigidities, Inflationary Finance and Long-run Growth*

The paper considers a monopolistically competitive intertemporally optimizing monetary economy featuring long-term growth. Inflation is generated through sluggish price-setting and contributes to budgetary finance through seignorage. This setup permits exploration of the interaction between inflation and growth in a tractable way. Superneutrality holds in the long but not the short run. The budget deficit fuels inflation with a hysteresis. Growth and inflation are negatively correlated in the long run, with causality running from the former to the latter, and positively correlated in the short run regardless of the origin of shocks. Price flexibility precipitates adjustment but appears also to destabilize output.     

Qualitatively Rational Expectations and Adjustment in the Specific-Factors Model

This paper considers adjustment in a dynamic specific-factors model with endogenous capital stocks. Investment is analyzed under the assumption that expectations are rational with respect to qualitative aspects of the adjustment process (qualitatively rational expectations, QRE). QRE leave considerable scope for systematic errors in expectations formation. Adjustment under rational expectations is similar to QRE adjustment; however, only in the former case is the speed of adjustment optimal. Overshooting of capital stocks is possible and may be optimal. Comparative-static analysis shows an asymmetry between inflows of labor and capital: only capital inflows may cause a Rybczynski effect.     

A Simple and Intuitive Method to Solve Small Rational Expectations Models

We present a nonlinear solution method of saddlepoint dynamics in discrete time optimization problems. It is based on the backward attractivity of the stable manifold and is very easy to implement. After an introduction to the general method we present two applications. First, we consider the deterministic neoclassical growth model and demonstrate accuracy and stability of the method. Second, we solve a basic real business cycle model.revised version received July 2, 2003