Classification techniques for the identification of falsified financial statements: a comparative analysis

In this study, I develop 10 alternative classification models using logit analysis, discriminant analysis, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, probabilistic neural networks, nearest neighbours, UTADIS and MHDIS for the detection of falsified financial statements. The models are developed using financial and nonfinancial data. The sample includes 398 financial statements, half of which were assigned a qualified audit opinion. I compare these alternatives methods using out‐of‐time and out‐of‐sample tests. The results are used to derive conclusions on the performance of the methods and to investigate the potential of developing models that will assist auditors in identifying fraudulent financial statements. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mediated effect of SAS No. 99 and Sarbanes–Oxley officer certification on jurors’ evaluation of auditor liability

This study experimentally examines the impact of implementing Statement on Auditing Standard (SAS) No. 99, Consideration of Fraud in a Financial Statement Audit and the financial statement and internal control certification requirement by key corporate officers under the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX). The study investigates the prediction that the new regulations affect jurors’ assessment of guilt for failing to discover fraud, and also whether the regulations affect jurors’ perceptions of the appropriateness of auditors’ actions regarding fraud detection and of auditors’ and officers’ responsibility for the fraudulent financial statements. The study tests whether these perceptions mediate the association between the regulations and mock jurors’ guilt assessments. Results show that jurors assess auditors as less guilty under SAS No. 99 and in the presence of the officer certification requirement. SAS No. 99 decreases guilt assessments indirectly through jurors’ perception that auditors acted more appropriately under the new standard. Although jurors did view auditors as more responsible under SAS No. 99, their responsibility perceptions had no effect on guilt assessments. An additional finding is that the officer certification requirement has an indirect effect on guilt assessments via jurors’ perceptions of the officers’ responsibility for the fraudulent financial statements.     

Detecting accounting fraud in companies reporting under US GAAP through data mining

The accounting fraud detection models developed on financial data prepared under US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in the current literature achieve significantly weaker performance than models based on financial data prepared under different accounting standards. This study contributes to the US GAAP accounting fraud data mining literature through the attainment of higher model performance than that reported in the prior literature. Financial data from the 10-K forms of 320 fraudulent financial statements (80 fraudulent companies) and 1,200 nonfraudulent financial statements (240 nonfraudulent companies) were collected from the US Security and Exchange Commission. The eight most commonly used data mining techniques were applied to develop prediction models. The results were cross-validated on a testing dataset and then compared according to parameters of accuracy, F-measure, and type I and II errors with existing studies from the US, China, Greece, and Taiwan. As a result, the developed predictive models for accounting fraud achieved performance comparable to those achieved by models built on data from other accounting standards. Moreover, the developed models also significantly outperformed (accuracy 10.5%, F-measure 16.1%, type I error 12.2% and type II error 15.2%) existing studies based on US GAAP financial data. Furthermore, this study provides an extensive literature review encompassing recent accounting fraud theory. It enhances the existing US fraud data mining literature with a performance comparison of studies based on other accounting standards.     

Regulation of accountancy and the power of capital: some observations

In response to Briloff’s study of the regulation of fraudulent financial reporting in the USA, this paper examines the regulation of financial reporting and auditing in the UK. In common with Briloff, it reports that little effective regulatory action is taken against auditing firms implicated in audit failures and/or the publication of “defective" financial statements. Seemingly, as major fraction of international capital, auditing firms have colonised and captured the state to shield themselves from regulatory action.     

Financial Statement Fraud: Some Lessons from US and European Case Studies

This paper studies 14 companies that were subject to an official investigation arising from the publication of fraudulent financial statements. The research found senior management to be responsible for most fraud. Recording false sales was the most common method of financial statement fraud. Meeting external forecasts emerged as the primary motivation. Management discovered most fraud, although the discovery was split between incumbent and new management.     

Perceived importance of red flags across fraud types

The purpose of this study is to examine whether internal auditors, external auditors and economic crime investigators perceive the importance of red flags as significantly different across two fraud types: fraudulent financial reporting and misappropriation of assets, as well as across within-subject categories. A total of 471 useable responses were collected using a web-based survey. The findings indicate that significant differences exist on both single and aggregate mean levels among the participant groups. Internal auditors report a higher perceived importance of the red flags related to detecting misappropriation of assets than of those related to fraudulent financial reporting, whereas the opposite is true for economic crime investigators. For external auditors, only small differences in aggregate means between misappropriation of assets and fraudulent financial reporting were found. As the sensitivity to fraud type may affect professional planning, procedures and techniques with regard to fraud prevention, detection and investigation, the results may have both practical and theoretical implications. Further, the focus on both fraud types adds to prior literature on fraud.     

Cooking the books: Recipes and costs of falsified financial statements in China

We examine the causes and consequences of falsified financial statements in China. Using bivariate probit regression analysis, we find that firms with high debt and that plan to make equity issues are more likely to manipulate their earnings and thus have to restate their financial reports in subsequent years. We also find that corporate governance structures have an effect on the occurrence and detection of financial fraud. There are significant negative consequences to fraudulent financial statements. Restating firms suffer negative abnormal stock returns, increases in their cost of capital, wider bid-ask spreads, a greater frequency of modified audit opinions, and greater CEO turnover. We also find that firms located in highly developed regions suffer more severe consequences when they manipulate their accounts.     

Jack's Sports Bar

This two‐part case focuses on indicators or red flags of a possible fraud being committed by a majority shareholder against a minority shareholder. The student assumes the role of an accountant investigating the possible fraud. In Part 1 the student is provided with a whistleblower complaint and examines the draft financial statements that will be used for the purchase price of the sale of shares by the minority shareholder to the majority shareholder. In Part 2 the student is provided with further information on inventory controls and the accounting practices. Drawing on the student's knowledge of control systems and financial statement analysis, the student's task is to identify the possible fraudulent transactions and quantify their effect.     

上市公司舞弊性财务报告及其防范与监管——基于中国证券监督委员会处罚公告的分析

舞弊性财务报告是全世界经济社会和会计职业界关注的重大问题。我国目前也面临其挑战。本文以中国证券监督委员会2002—2006年处罚公告中涉及的上市公司舞弊性财务报告为依据,对我国上市公司舞弊性财务报告的主要类型、手段等进行了统计分析。分析发现,舞弊公司表外舞弊严重,所占比重大;同时存在多种舞弊类型,典型的是虚假利润表和虚假披露;虚构销售业务、虚增资产、隐瞒对外担保分别成为虚假利润表、虚假资产负债表和虚假披露的最主要舞弊手段;舞弊公司同时采用多种舞弊方法,且舞弊行为持续年限在两年以上,最长的达9年。本文最后提出了相应的防范与监管建议。     

应用数据挖掘技术识别财务报表舞弊的方法研究

如何识别财务报表舞弊成为国内外学者普遍关注的问题。基于传统识别技术的诸多固有缺陷,近年来数据挖掘技术应用到识别财务报表舞弊领域成为发展趋势。数据挖掘技术包括统计方法、人工神经网络和其他数据挖掘技术。文章不仅对各种识别模型和技术进行了归纳,而且比较分析了各种模型和方法的优缺点、判别正确率以及适用条件,为下一步实施实证研究提供支持。     

基于案例推理的财务报告舞弊识别研究

上市公司财务报告舞弊对资本市场建设和投资者利益保护掣肘已久。以2003~2012年我国沪深 A 股财务报告舞弊公司及其配对公司为样本,依据“舞弊钻石”理论和现有文献提取舞弊识别指标,基于案例推理思想构建财务报告舞弊识别模型。研究发现,较之于非舞弊公司,舞弊公司通常面临更大的盈利压力和偿债压力,成长能力更弱,事务所变更现象更为普遍,被出具非标准审计意见的概率更高。基于仿兰氏距离的案例推理模型对测试集样本的识别总正确率为66.7%。     

BEYOND THE NUMBERS: MINING THE ANNUAL REPORTS FOR HIDDEN CUES INDICATIVE OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT FRAUD

Unlike previous fraud detection research, a vast majority of which has focused primarily on the use of quantitative financial information to predict fraud, in this study we examine qualitative textual content in annual reports to predict fraud and see whether there are discernible differences in the writing and presentation style between companies that committed fraud and those that did not. We believe that while numeric financial information in the annual reports can hide details of fraud, textual information relating to writing and presentation styles in such reports provides valuable clues pertaining to the existence of fraud. In this study we use the chi‐square test to analyse our data and test hypotheses about predictors of fraud that may explain linguistic feature variations in fraudulent and nonfraudulent annual reports. We provide new results on the usefulness of the qualitative content of annual reports in detecting fraud. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Are IFRS value-relevant for separate financial statements? Evidence from the Italian stock market

Using a sample of Italian firms, this paper investigates whether separate financial statements are useful to capital market investors, and whether International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are more value-relevant than domestic generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). These issues are key in evaluating the decision made by some states in the European Union to extend the use of IFRS to separate financial statements. The study provides evidence that separate financial statements are value-relevant, regardless of the accounting standard set. However, contrary to expectations, separate financial statements under IFRS do not have incremental information content beyond domestic GAAP. There is even some evidence that domestic GAAP financial statements are more value-relevant than IFRS. Finally, this paper documents the important role of model specification in value-relevance studies.     

Simulation of Controlled Financial Statements

Many accounting and finance studies investigate the time-series properties of historical accounting records from corporate financial statements. Some of them have recognized the potential benefits of using disaggregated monthly accounting records. Disaggregated data are beneficial because one can use more data points within a relatively short period of time, thus reducing the chance of structural change. The added data points and reduction of the number of variables needed to accommodate potential structural changes can enhance the statistical power of any subsequent analysis. The use of disaggregated data may also improve the predictive ability of time-series analytic approaches. In order to systematically assess various financial indicators and investigate the effects of different organizational characteristics, a large number of monthly statements with certain predetermined characteristics are desirable. However, such statements are not readily available. At best, monthly statements can be obtained from a few volunteer companies. Under this circumstance, simulation of controlled financial statements seems to be a reasonable solution. This research explores a methodology for simulating complete monthly financial statements based on actual company quarterly financial statements. The methodology incorporates the interrelationships among accounting numbers and the effects of exogenous variables. To test the empirical validity and whether the monthly results derived from the quarterly data can accurately track the real monthly figures, we compare the results simulated by the proposed method and those generated by a naive random walk model. We test both complete financial statements for three companies and sales statistics from the retail industry. The results of both tests demonstrate the superiority of the method proposed by this study over a naive random walk model. The proposed simulation method provides an opportunity for researchers to examine the time-series properties of financial statement elements by using the monthly data of a large number of companies. In addition, the simulation approach allows researchers to perform cross sectional comparisons on companies with different characteristics (e.g., sales behavior patterns and degrees of stability) in their financial and economic activities. Moreover, it enables the researchers to manipulate some of these characteristics to test various hypotheses.     

Fraudulent financial reporting in China: Evidence from corporate renaming

Using a sample of listed Chinese companies during 2010–2019, we examine whether corporate renaming is associated with fraudulent financial reporting. We find that companies that change their corporate names without making underlying changes to business fundamentals are more likely to commit financial reporting fraud. The positive association between corporate renaming and financial reporting fraud is more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises and companies with a lower ownership concentration. There is further evidence that corporate renaming is more likely to be associated with disclosure-related fraud (e.g., failure to disclose or delayed disclosure) and that the likelihood of fraudulent behavior increases with the frequency of corporate renaming. Overall, the findings of this study provide evidence of a new red flag for regulators and investors investigating financial fraud. This study is timely and has policy implications for market regulators hoping to establish and improve emerging capital markets in which the information environment is generally considered weak and opaque.     

Business Continuity in the Face of Fraud and Organisational Change

We examine business continuity in the context of fraud and accounting for an organisation as a going concern. The issues addressed are timely and focus on two points. First, fraudulent activities in business are increasing worldwide with related costs reaching trillions of US dollars. Second, the conventional accounting concept of a going concern that typically signifies business continuity is arguably formed on a static view of business. As such, this view does not help mitigate opportunities for fraudulent statements of account. We contribute to the accounting literature by emphasising the dynamic nature of business and in doing so extend the discussion on Type 1 and Type 2 going concern errors. In that context we provide evidence of a possible Type 3 going concern error in an organisation's financial reporting. Drawing on an international fraud case involving an Indian company, Satyam, we illustrate the adaptive behaviour of resilient business organisations. The findings of our study show that even in the face of fraud dynamic, adaptive organisations can achieve business continuity.     

Top executives’ early-life experience and financial disclosure quality: impact from the Great Chinese Famine

This study investigates the impact of top executives’ Great Chinese Famine experience on firm financial disclosure quality. We find firms led by top executives who experienced the great famine in early life are less likely to conduct fraudulent financial reporting. The famine effect is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), smaller-cap, lower-profitability level firms and firms with weaker external monitoring. Further evidence suggests that top executives with great famine experience show greater tendency to implement secured debt structure, effective internal control and spend less on entertainment and travel costs, which in turn reduce the likelihood of fraudulent financial reporting.     

Auditors as modern pharmakoi: Legitimacy paradoxes and the production of economic order

Despite a continuous flow of audit failure episodes the auditing profession keeps on being seen as technically and morally legitimate. This paper seeks to better understand how the paradox that surrounds the legitimacy of financial auditing develops. Relying on René Girard's theoretical developments on scapegoating, sacrificial rituals and mythification, we argue that auditors are often (but not always) selected as sacrificial victims in the wake of major corporate scandals. Rationalized mythologies are mobilized in the process by which auditors are morally and/or legally condemned, in a way which maintains or strengthens the legitimacy of the financial audit function. Fundamentally speaking, we contend that financial auditors can be conceived of as modern pharmakoi, constituting a reservoir of victims to sacrifice whenever fraudulent financial statements surfacing in the public arena threaten to severely disrupt the credibility and smooth-functioning of capital markets. We confront our theoretical translation of Girardian theory to the empirical domain through an analysis of the breakdown of accounting firm Arthur Andersen, in which we examine how the legitimacy paradox surrounding the financial audit function is produced and reproduced. One of our key conclusions is as follows: despite claims which commonly celebrate the rationality of capital markets, the latter's functioning and the sustaining of economic order are predicated on the production and reproduction of mythologies.     

合并财务报表的价值相关性研究

本文研究了中国上市公司合并财务报表的价值相关性问题。论文采用市值模型,以2001—2007年的数据为研究对象,检验了合并财务报表是否比母公司个别财务报表更具价值相关性,以及基于主体理论编制的合并财务报表是否比基于母公司理论编制的合并财务报表更具价值相关性。检验结果发现,虽然合并财务报表并不在所有样本期间比母公司个别财务报表更具价值相关性,但合并财务报表可以深入地揭示企业在偿债能力、盈利能力等方面的风险,从而,合并财务报表是有用的。检验还发现,基于主体理论编制的合并财务报表比基于母公司理论编制的合并财务报表更具价值相关性。     

Detecting financial statement fraud using dynamic ensemble machine learning

Our study uses Machine learning to develop an advanced fraud detection model that can detect fraudulent firms. We build our model using raw financial and non-financial variables following prior literature. In addition, we introduce the Dynamic Ensemble Selection algorithm to the fraud detection literature, which combines individual classifiers dynamically to make a final prediction. Using several performance evaluation metrics, we find that our model can outperform several machine learning models used in recent studies.