风险管控系统建设评价

风险管控评价是目前国内外理论界与实务界关注的重点,而关注焦点集中于风险管控系统运行期间的评价,对风险管控系统建设阶段的评价则鲜有涉及。本文以风险管控系统建设过程中的成本、进度和质量为对象,探讨如何构建和使用风险管控系统建设评价,为完善风险管控系统评价体系做有益的补充和尝试。     

A multi-factor model for the risk management of portfolios

We propose a methodology for modelling the value at risk of a complex portfolio, based on an extension of the Ho, Stapleton and Subrahmanyam technique. We model the variance-covariance structure of up to seven variables. These could represent four country indices and three exchange rates, for example. In addition, the effect of an arbitrary number of orthogonal factors can be analysed. The system is illustrated by estimating the value at risk for a portfolio of international stocks where the factors are stock market indices and exchange rates, a portfolio of international bonds where the factors are interest rates as well as exchange rates, and a portfolio of interest rate derivatives in different currencies. In this last case, we model a two-factor term structure of interest rates in each of the currencies, valuing the derivatives at a future date using these term structures and the Black model. The model is applied for different fineness of the binomial density and computational accuracy and efficiency are estimated.
G13, G15, G21     

Can alert models for fraud protect the elderly clients of a financial institution?

ABSTRACT

Using account-level transaction data at a major financial institution, we predict the incidence of suspicious activity that can be related to the external financial fraud of its elderly clients. The data consists of over 5 million accounts of clients aged 70 years and older, and over 250 million transactions extending from January 2015 to August 2016. Our main focus is to improve the detection of alerts within a proprietorial transaction monitoring system. Using logistic regression, random forest and support vector machine learning techniques, together with corrections for imbalanced alert samples, we provide a new alert model for the protection of elderly clients at a financial institution, with out-of-sample predictive accuracy. Our findings show the relative influence of client traits and account activity in our select external fraud alert models.     

商业银行内部风险管理体系及其职责

风险管理是商业银行的一项重要管理工作,从内部体系看,风险防控的三道防线是由经营部门、风险管理部门、内控合规部门和内审部门分别承担的,它们在风险防控上存在着交集,需要各司其职、明确分工,以提高风险管理效率。此外,各部门间的相互制约应当适度,风险管理部门的设置要计成本、讲效率。     

基于战略风险管理模式下的养老保险公司风险管理分析

战略风险管理模式是金融企业比较流行的一种全面风险管理模型。本文在分析养老保险公司业务经营及风险管理特殊性的基础上,应用战略风险管理基本思想,提出了当前形势下养老保险公司风险管理的核心问题,并对公司目前面临的风险类别、风险因素以及风险管控措施进行了分析研究。     

A new approach to assessing model risk in high dimensions

A central problem for regulators and risk managers concerns the risk assessment of an aggregate portfolio defined as the sum of d individual dependent risks $X_i$. This problem is mainly a numerical issue once the joint distribution of $\left(X_1\text{,}{X}_2\text{,}\dots \text{,}{X}_d\right)$ is fully specified. Unfortunately, while the marginal distributions of the risks $X_i$ are often known, their interaction (dependence) is usually either unknown or only partially known, implying that any risk assessment of the portfolio is subject to model uncertainty.Previous academic research has focused on the maximum and minimum possible values of a given risk measure of the portfolio when only the marginal distributions are known. This approach leads to wide bounds, as all information on the dependence is ignored. In this paper, we integrate, in a natural way, available information on the multivariate dependence. We make use of the Rearrangement Algorithm (RA) of Embrechts et al. (2013) to provide bounds for the risk measure at hand. We observe that incorporating the information of a well-fitted multivariate model may, or may not, lead to much tighter bounds, a feature that also depends on the risk measure used. In particular, the risk of underestimating the Value-at-Risk at a very high confidence level (as used in Basel II) is typically significant, even if one knows the multivariate distribution almost completely.Our results make it possible to determine which risk measures can benefit from adding dependence information (i.e., leading to narrower bounds when used to assess portfolio risk) and, hence, to identify those situations for which it would be meaningful to develop accurate multivariate models.     

An inductive reasoning approach for building system safety risk models of aviation accidents

An inductive reasoning approach is employed to develop a prototype hybrid decision support tool whose main objective is to build probabilistic causal models representing the safety risk involved in aviation accidents. In this context, 15 aircraft accidents representative of five major accident types are selected to build an initial seed for the case‐base of the prototype tool. Consequently, within each individual accident model, main clusters of causal factors are identified for inclusion in the initial seed, thereby improving, both quantitatively and qualitatively, the case‐base of the prototype tool. A new methodology developed specifically for indexing aviation accidents into databases is used for indexing the initial seed into the case‐base of the tool. The resulting product is a highly customized conversational decision support tool that provides solution possibilities in the form of probabilistic causal models of accident scenarios retrieved and ranked according to their similarity to the current accident that the intended user investigates.     

A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions

In this paper we propose a framework for measuring and stress testing the systemic risk of a group of major financial institutions. The systemic risk is measured by the price of insurance against financial distress, which is based on ex ante measures of default probabilities of individual banks and forecasted asset return correlations. Importantly, using realized correlations estimated from high-frequency equity return data can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasted correlations. Our stress testing methodology, using an integrated micro–macro model, takes into account dynamic linkages between the health of major US banks and macro-financial conditions. Our results suggest that the theoretical insurance premium that would be charged to protect against losses that equal or exceed 15% of total liabilities of 12 major US financial firms stood at $110 billion in March 2008 and had a projected upper bound of $250 billion in July 2008.     

养老金业务全面风险管理

随着中国经济和金融体制改革的不断深入,社会保障制度特别是养老金制度也发生了剧烈的变革,逐步建立起社会统筹和个人账户相结合的养老保障体系,包括了国家基本养老保险、企业年金和个人储蓄养老保险三个支柱,养老基金也随之正式登陆中国资本市场。养老金是退休人员的养命钱,其性质决定了它在满足盈利性、流动性的前提下必须保持更低风险的特点,决定了它在风险管理上的高要求。     

Tax risk management and the multinational enterprise

The financial scandals in the United States and other countries ushered in financial reporting and corporate governance reforms that extend beyond the U.S. Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX). These initiatives have increased the international financial community's awareness of the importance of risk management and internal controls. Tax risk management and related internal controls have been accorded less focus than risk management generally. The purpose of this research is to describe the current state of tax risk management of multinational enterprises (MNEs) by reporting survey responses from chief financial officers (CFOs) of U.S. and non-U.S. MNEs. The research shows that significant progress has been made by large MNEs in developing and implementing both general and tax risk management policies. The results provide guidance in identifying the loci and impact of organizational tax risk and indicate that respondents do not perceive alarming degrees of tax risk in their organizations. The study reveals a remarkable degree of similarity in U.S. and foreign firm responses and demonstrates, unexpectedly, that existing reporting structures enable CFOs to shift a significant degree of tax risk management to heads of tax.     

Data for outcome payments or information for care? A sociotechnical analysis of the management information system in the implementation of a social impact bond

ABSTRACT

Social Impact Bonds (SIBs) are a policy intervention designed to explicitly link the activity of social interventions to outcome payments. Despite a burgeoning literature on SIBs there is a lack of evidence in relation to the information system characteristics and accounting mechanisms of SIBs. Applying a multi-dimensional sociotechnical lens to a case study of a SIB allows us to reveal the current problematic convergence of public management and information systems. The authors found that an information system within a SIB is introduced and adapted to increasingly prioritize the production of data for payment over documenting care accounts to support improved provision. The ?ndings of this paper also suggest that claims of SIBs as an innovation are limited as they are subject to the familiar problems of New Public Management practice, in the way they shape the design and use of the data in governance, management and service delivery practices.     

The impact of contingencies on management accounting system development

Four hypotheses relevant to the contingency theory of management accounting are presented. Data relate to the period 1994–98 for a sample of new Scottish microfirms. First, correlation analysis is applied to test the hypothesis that the introduction of management accounting system (MAS) developments is related to the timing of contingent events such as cashflow crises, shortfalls of finance, and innovation. Second, cluster analysis is used to test the hypothesis that contingencies cluster to form three configurations of small firms, adaptive, running blind, and stagnant. Third, regression analysis is used to test the hypothesis that an index of organizational form, measured by weighted headcount, is explained by aspects of the generic contingencies, technological uncertainty, production systems, business strategy and market environment. The fourth hypothesis is that MAS complexity is determined by sub-unit interdependence, market dynamics, and work methods. The four hypotheses tested support several aspects of contingency theory, as modified to a small firms context.     

基于全寿命周期的保险产品风险管理问题研究

财产保险公司作为经营财产风险的微观经济实体,不仅要承担和转化被保险人的风险,同时还需要防范和化解自身风险。作为保险公司风险的承载体——保险产品,则成为其风险管理的出发点和立足点。目前我国财产保险公司的风险管理比较浅显,仅仅停留在承保前对保险标的风险和以往事故的简单分析层面上,并没有从保险产品的全寿命周期角度进行风险管理。本文基于产品全寿命周期思想,以财产保险产品为研究点,在分析我国财产保险业发展阶段的基础上,结合经济起飞理论,验证全寿命周期思想对于财产保险产品风险管理的重要作用。     

The impact of enterprise risk management on the marginal cost of reducing risk: Evidence from the insurance industry

We test the hypothesis that practicing enterprise risk management (ERM) reduces firms’ cost of reducing risk. Adoption of ERM represents a radical paradigm shift from the traditional method of managing risks individually to managing risks collectively allowing ERM-adopting firms to better recognize natural hedges, prioritize hedging activities towards the risks that contribute most to the total risk of the firm, and optimize the evaluation and selection of available hedging instruments. We hypothesize that these advantages allow ERM-adopting firms to produce greater risk reduction per dollar spent. Our hypothesis further predicts that, after implementing ERM, firms experience profit maximizing incentives to lower risk. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that firms adopting ERM experience a reduction in stock return volatility. We also find that the reduction in return volatility for ERM-adopting firms becomes stronger over time. Further, we find that operating profits per unit of risk (ROA/return volatility) increase post ERM adoption.     

商业银行数据反欺诈系统框架

信用评级过程中商业银行单靠数据清洗无法根本剔除蓄意欺诈性数据。这就要求商业银行设计专门的系统和模型，以便有效地识别和防范数据欺诈行为。分析财务数据欺诈的类型．选取判定数据欺诈的指标，设计数据反欺诈模型系统，整合相应的业务流程，为商业银行实施评级系统提供重要的数据保障。     

Enterprise risk management and firm performance: A contingency perspective

In recent years, a paradigm shift has occurred regarding the way organizations view risk management. Instead of looking at risk management from a silo-based perspective, the trend is to take a holistic view of risk management. This holistic approach toward managing an organization’s risk is commonly referred to as enterprise risk management (ERM). Indeed, there is growing support for the general argument that organizations will improve their performance by employing the ERM concept. The basic argument presented in this paper is that the relation between ERM and firm performance is contingent upon the appropriate match between ERM and the following five factors affecting a firm: environmental uncertainty, industry competition, firm size, firm complexity, and board of directors’ monitoring. Based on a sample of 112 US firms that disclose the implementation of their ERM activities within their 10Ks and 10Qs filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, empirical evidence confirms the above basic argument. The implication of these findings is that firms should consider the implementation of an ERM system in conjunction with contextual variables surrounding the firm.     

重论全面风险管理体系建设

商业银行实施全面风险管理，旨在保护存款人及其他利益关系人的利益，保护股东利益，增加股东价值和维护银行声誉。     

从风险管理哲学论AIG风暴

金融海啸引发了人们对金融基本价值的重新评价,也让人质疑风险管理哲学根本性的问题。经济学领域中,也常出现哲学的争辩。政府那双看得见的手,该不该伸向市场?在经济学领域中,总是有两个阵营处于争论之中。金融海啸发生前,自由主义学派阵营占了上风,在其所能影响的领域,政府监管自由化的主张非常流行。金融海啸则给该阵营来了个当头棒喝。同样的,在风险管理学术领域中,也有两个阵营互相对峙,一个就是传统的实证论阵营,另一个就是后实证论阵营。两个阵营看待风险的方式截然不同,影响的领域、风险管理问题的建构与管理方式也不同。金融海啸发生后,风险管理哲学该变还是不必变?这是本文讨论的重点。