Firm valuation: comparing the residual income and discounted cash flow approaches

This study compares the discounted cash flow approach and an accrual based valuation approach: the residual income model. Given the theoretical equivalence between the residual income and discounted cash flow approaches this, study examines whether it is possible to infer a valuation approach that is superior to the other from a user perspective. The two valuation approaches are compared on the basis of analytical attractiveness. This study demonstrates that if practitioners introduce simplifying assumptions in their firm valuation, they also introduce biases in their firm value estimates. In some cases the residual income approach yields more accurate firm value estimates, while in others the discounted cash flow approach yields more accurate estimates. Further, the impact of simplifying assumptions on firm value estimates can be significant. Thus, it is important that practitioners introducing simplifying assumptions are aware of the impact on firm value estimates. Finally, since the framework for forecasting is often based on accrual accounting and the budget control is generally based on accounting numbers rather than cash flow numbers, it seems logical to estimate firm values based on concepts known from accrual accounting and financial statement analysis, i.e. the residual income approach.     

Value-Driving Activities in Euro-Zone Banks

We develop and test accounting-based valuation models for commercial banks. We extend Begley et al.'s framework (2006) and propose a valuation model where goodwill is generated by virtually all commercial and investment banking activities. Key features of our model are: the development of a relation between future cash flows from fee income and the bank value that depends on lending, borrowing and off-balance sheet business; and the inclusion of proprietary investment and trading as value-driving activities. Empirical tests on a sample of Euro-zone banks from 1998 to 2006 provide the following evidence. Unrealised expected cash flows from fee income are the most important source of unrecorded goodwill. This is consistent with the increasing importance of revenue from the sale of financial services to banks' income. The contribution of fee income to goodwill is higher for banks with large deposits and new loans. Equity securities are a source of unrecorded goodwill, but the introduction of fair value accounting, with the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), reduces their valuation role. Yet equity securities remain positively associated with unrecorded goodwill after IFRS adoption, suggesting that the fair value standards do not fully capture market expectations about future cash flows of investment assets.     

会计谜团:“利润至上”还是“现金至尊”?

由于确认与计量基础的差别,利润与现金既存在一致性,又存在着差异性。会计利润是基于应计制的账面数据;现金流量表现为企业实实在在的现金流入与流出,是一个具有多层次的概念体系,并成为企业估值、决策与管理的"至尊变量";而以应计制为基础的剩余收益,比现金流量更能确认价值的增加,并提供了一种分析企业和企业价值生成的方法。     

Managerial incentives and corporate control auctions

An analysis of the sequence of bidding in corporate control contests involving white knights reveals a category of white knights termed as ‘delayed bid’ white knights who make their bid after two consecutive hostile bids. The ‘immediate bid’ white knights make their bid in relative haste after the first hostile bid. Overpayments by white knights are much larger for the ‘immediate bid’ white knights. An analysis of the respective compensation packages shows that the managers of the ‘immediate bid’ white knights have a lower proportion of their income linked to stock value (relative to their annual cash income) compared to ‘delayed bid’ white knights and hostile bidders.     

Non-cooperative Households and the Size and Composition of Public Expenditure

This paper presents a model in which the composition and size of public spending are determined through a political process. Agents differ in wage rates, and live in households positively sorted by wage; household production benefits both partners but the partners interact non-cooperatively, hence the laissez-faire equilibrium is inefficient. There are three policy tools, a labour income tax rate, a cash transfer and an in-kind transfer. The latter can be combined with household production to generate a household public good. All agents agree on some form of public intervention to remedy the inefficiency, but low-wagers prefer high taxes and cash transfers, while high-wagers prefer low taxes and in-kind provision. Under the empirically plausible assumption that voting participation is positively correlated with income, the equilibrium policy will be of the sort preferred by voters with above-mean income. This effect is accentuated by increased inequality.A previous version of this paper has been presented at the 2004 EPCS conference in Berlin; we thank our discussant Stanley Winer, as well as two referees of this journal, for insightful comments     

Do cash flows reported by firms articulate with their income statements and balance sheets? Descriptive evidence from Finland

Using data for a sample of listed Finnish firms for 1995–97 this paper examines the coincidence of reported cash flows with corresponding cash flows estimated from income statement and balance sheet data. The issue is important in light of prior empirical studies that have analysed the properties and usefulness of cash flow information derived from income statements and balance sheets. In addition, financial analyses of firms not disclosing cash flow statements are implicitly based on the assumption that income statements and balance sheets are useful in producing unbiased and efficient estimates of cash flows. The overall findings indicate that reported cash flows do not always articulate with income statements and balance sheets and that non-articulation can be observed in cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities. The differences between reported and estimated cash flows prove to be mostly random. The findings on cash flows from operating activities indicate that differences attributable to operating income and working capital are partially countervailing. The findings also suggest that the differences do not materially affect firms' relative rankings based on financial ratios. A detailed analysis of an individual company indicates that differences arising from the allocation of short-term liabilities to operating and financing activities can be important. Overall, the results call for the refinement of the standards and guidelines of cash flow reporting practices.     

A model of fractional cointegration, and tests for cointegration using the bootstrap

The paper proposes a framework for modelling cointegration in fractionally integrated processes, and considers methods for testing the existence of cointegrating relationships using the parametric bootstrap. In these procedures, ARFIMA models are fitted to the data, and the estimates used to simulate the null hypothesis of non-cointegration in a vector autoregressive modelling framework. The simulations are used to estimate p-values for alternative regression-based test statistics, including the F goodness-of-fit statistic, the Durbin–Watson statistic and estimates of the residual d. The bootstrap distributions are economical to compute, being conditioned on the actual sample values of all but the dependent variable in the regression. The procedures are easily adapted to test stronger null hypotheses, such as statistical independence. The tests are not in general asymptotically pivotal, but implemented by the bootstrap, are shown to be consistent against alternatives with both stationary and nonstationary cointegrating residuals. As an example, the tests are applied to the series for UK consumption and disposable income. The power properties of the tests are studied by simulations of artificial cointegrating relationships based on the sample data. The F test performs better in these experiments than the residual-based tests, although the Durbin–Watson in turn dominates the test based on the residual d.     

净现值计算方法的差异及其消除

现金流量可以分为资本成本、资本回收额与剩余收益三部分,因此当折现时不同的现金流量应与不同的相关折现率相匹配。Damodaran提出的匹配原则使得两种计算净现值的方法得出不同的结果,而通过对匹配原则进行修正则可以解决这一问题。     

Fertility, Labor Force Participation and the Relative Income Hypothesis:

Abstract . AN empirical test with Canadian data was made of the relative income hypothesis which states that fertility and labor force participation depend upon relative income, where relative income refers to the current family income level relative to the family's desired income level. The interpretation of the desired income level is modified slightly to mean that it is determined not by the past parental income, as originally formulated, but by contemporaneous income levels of other age groups. An empirical model of labor force participation is estimated for the post-war period. The results on the whole tend to provide empirical support for the relative income hypothesis. The post-war baby boom, which led to a decline in the income of young adults relative to that of older age groups, had the effect of increasing participation rates of young adults, especially of young (married) women.     

Cameral accounting and cash flow reporting: some implications for use of the direct or indirect method

The most thoroughly debated format issue in designing a cash flow statement for a business enterprise concerns use ofthe direct or indirectmethod when reporting cash from operating activities. The article argues that the reason why we cannot solve this dilemma of using the direct or indirect method is related to the fact that our discussion is limited to using the axiom of double-entry bookkeeping within commercial accounting. In this article, however, the discussion of whether to use the direct or indirect method is not limited to commercial double-entry bookkeeping; it is also based upon another accounting framework, specifically designed to deal with cash transactions of governmental organizations: single-entry cameral accounting. The article argues that commercial accounting could learn from cameral accounting, separating cash from non-cash balance sheet changes, and directly prepare a cash flow statement from the single-entries of the cash transactions on the cash account, before they are entered into the double-entry bookkeeping system, to provide a performance result (revenues minus expenses) and related balance sheet information (assets, liabilities and equity). By applying this procedure, the direct method of preparing a cash flow statement becomes the natural method to use.     

企业收入实现及“实现”概念探析——论企业收入的已实现、可实现和未实现

"实现"是财务会计的一个重要概念,是收入实现(因出售商品或劳务而形成的现金流入)的基本标准。在对企业收入实现计量及收入确认标准等问题进行分析探讨后发现,财务会计中存在确认收入的三个"实现"概念,即已实现、可实现和未实现。已实现是已获得的现金净流入,可实现是有望在确定期间内按确定金额获得的现金净流入,未实现是期望获得的未来的现金净流入。     

Group Status and Entrepreneurship

Do unfettered markets produce too many or too few entrepreneurs? Two seminal papers [ Stiglitz and Weiss (1981) and de Meza and Webb (1987) ] obtained ambiguous answers to this question based on different assumptions about the character of information asymmetries in credit markets. The present paper approaches the same question but using a labor market model in which income is determined by ability and individuals derive utility from income and occupational group status. Occupational group status for entrepreneurs depends on the average entrepreneurial income (due to ex post screening by banks), whereas status for wage employees depends on their own income and ability (due to ex ante screening by employers). Thus, individuals create externalities through their occupational choice. It is shown that there can be too many or too few entrepreneurs in equilibrium depending on the marginal returns to ability in entrepreneurship relative to paid employment; this enables the researcher to use independent evidence about occupational marginal returns to identify the relevant equilibrium likely to arise in practice, together with the likely appropriate policy responses. Based on this approach, we suggest that there may be too many (low ability) entrepreneurs in the USA.     

Equity, Price Elasticity, and Household Income Under Increasing Block Rates for Water

Abstract . For an examination of the relationships between household income levels and residential water use, individual household survey data from Tucson, Arizona the combined with monthly water use data for these same households. The objectives were to examine individual response to the existing block rate pricing structure and to provide policy conclusions on potential improvements in this rate structure. A simultaneous equation model of demand is estimated for households within each income group to determine the price elasticity of demand for each income group. The demand models show that under the existing increasing block rate pricing schedules, higher income households not only use more water, but have lower elasticities of demand. Thus a uniform proportional rate increase will cause a larger percentage drop in water use among low income households than among high income households. Given the assumption of declining marginal utility of water use, this result leads to a policy recommendation for substantially steeper block rates to improve interpersonal equity in water pricing.     

AN EMPIRICAL GROWTH MODEL FOR MAJOR OIL EXPORTERS

This paper develops a long‐run output relation for a major oil‐exporting economy where the oil income‐to‐output ratio remains sufficiently high over a prolonged period. It extends the stochastic growth model developed in Binder and Pesaran (1999) by including oil exports as an additional factor in the capital accumulation process. The paper distinguishes between the two cases where the growth of oil income, g^o, is less than the natural growth rate (the sum of the population growth, n, and the growth of technical progress, g), and when g^o ≥ g + n. Under the former, the effects of oil income on the economy's steady growth rate will vanish eventually, while under the latter oil income enters the long‐run output equation with a coefficient which is equal to the share of capital if it is further assumed that the underlying production technology can be represented by a Cobb–Douglas production function. The long‐run theory is tested using quarterly data on nine major oil economies. Overall, the test results support the long‐run theory, with the existence of long‐run relations between real output, foreign output and real oil income established for six of the nine economies considered. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Federal Income Tax Reform in the United States: How Did It Happen? What Did It Do? Where Do We Go from Here?

Abstract . The 16th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution in 1913 provided the legal basis for progressive federal income taxes. They now yield revenues of about $450 billion annually. Tax base erosion eventually produced a levy in serious violation of norms of allocation efficiency, distributional equity, and macroeconomic performance. Vested private interests influenced legislators by propaganda and campaign contributions to minimize their tax burdens at the expense of less wealthy taxpayers. The result was an irrational and badly flawed tax structure. In 1981 the maximum marginal tax rate on income from property and wealth was significantly reduced along with other bracket reductions. The income tax reform movement culminated in 1984 to 1986. It expanded the base of the tax while reducing marginal rates as well as brackets, with little change in the distribution of the burden among different income groups but achieving some greater equity in tax liabilities for those with similar incomes.     

Economic Development and Income Distribution: A Cross-National Analysis

Abstract . The relationship between level of economic development and income distribution is analyzed using both a relative measure of income distribution and, for the first time, an absolute measure of income distribution which corrects for purchasing power differences between nations. Cross sectional regression analysis findings indicate support for non-linear relationships both in the total sample of 68 nations, and also in sub-samples of 54 developing nations and 14 industrial democracies. Our findings suggest that the poorest 40 percent of the population lose income both relatively and absolutely in the early stages of economic development. Thereafter there are gains in income although with diminishing marginal returns at the highest levels of development.     

Mineral-led Economic Growth, Drought Relief, and Incomes Policy

Abstract . Some analysts have hypothesized that rapid mineral led economic growth and drought in the rural economy have led to a severe worsening of the plight of the rural population in Botswana, with rural household income collapsing and income inequality worsening pronouncedly. Contrary to these hypotheses, Botswana's income data show that income distribution remained stable, since rural household incomes did not experience significant decline as a result of drought conditions. The government's incomes policy, the direct and indirect benefits of rapid employment growth, and the government's comprehensive drought relief support are seen as explanatory factors in this macroeconomic policy success.     

Culture, Economic Development, and Quality of Life: A Speculative Comment on the Case of Kerala, India

Abstract . Kerala State, India, had a per capita income of abott $290 for 1985, about the same as other Indian states. But Kerala has a Physical Quality of Life Index of 79 (compared to 43 for India). Saudi Arabia has a per capita income of $8,850 for 1985 but a PQLI of 28. How come? Of course, per capita income does not measure income distribution and India is a plural democracy while Saudi Arabia is an authoritarian monarchy. But the critical factor may well be culture.     

Relative Value Relevance of Alternative Accounting Treatments for Unrealized Gains: Implications for the IASB

We investigate the relative value relevance of the alternative accounting methods for unrealized gains on investment properties in New Zealand (NZ). Using both the Likelihood‐ratio test and the F‐test, we find that, while preferred by the NZ standard setter, recognition of unrealized gains in the income statement is not superior to (or significantly different from) recognition of unrealized gains in revaluation reserve in terms of their value relevance. The results are robust to the different research methods we used. Our results have implications for the International Accounting Standards Board in terms of: (i) recognizing changes in fair values of investment properties in the income statement under the revised IAS 40: Investment Property in countries where “realization” refers to net income available for distribution; (ii) its intent to issue a standard on a single statement of comprehensive income; and (iii) its initiative to reduce or eliminate alternative accounting treatments for similar fact situations in its standards.     

Absentee Ownership of Farmland and State and Local Tax Policy: Income Tax Promotes Absenteeism, But the Property Tax Can Be Used to Strengthen Family Farms

Abstract . The incentive effects of state and local tax policies in promoting or inhibiting the ownership of farmland by non-operators are evaluated. Previous research on the economic, social and environmental effects of absentee ownership is reviewed as well as evidence regarding the impact of tax laws on absentee owners versus owner-operators. The Federal tax laws, it is found, work to increase land prices, reduce entry into farming by young farmers, and increase absentee ownership. State income tax policies may reinforce these effects. Property tax policies, on the other hand, may counteract income tax laws by giving tax relief preferentially to owner-operators. Several modifications of property tax relief programs are suggested.