Stock Market’s responses to intraday investor sentiment

We investigate the effect of intraday sentiment on subsequent stock returns. Mispricing caused by intraday sentiment is not corrected immediately; rather, it lasts for about 30 min. After 30 min, however, investor sentiment negatively affects stock returns, suggesting that mispriced stocks are at least partially but not entirely adjusted back to their fundamental values. We also show that the effect of intraday sentiment depends on the degree of arbitrage. Intraday sentiment has little effect on firms that are easy to arbitrage. For these firms, the difference in the one-minute returns of firms with high and low sentiment is nearly zero, implying that any mispricing caused by intraday sentiment is immediately corrected for this group of firms. In contrast, among firms that are hard to arbitrage, the difference in the returns of firms with high and low sentiment lasts for about half an hour. This difference in the effect of intraday sentiment is not caused by the firms’ liquidities.     

Mispricing in the odd lots market in Brazil

We study the case of mispricing in the odd lots equity market in Brazil. Contrary to expectation, odd lot investors are paying higher prices than round lot investors. The pricing difference between markets is affected by market returns, volatility and spreads. Our main hypothesis is that; once the assets traded in the odd lot market are more illiquid than their counterparts, the mispricing is driven by liquidity factors. Additionally, we show that the mispricing yields an arbitrage opportunity that is not being traded away in the Brazilian market. Therefore, we propose regulators to review the market design for odd lots in Brazil. We argue that reducing the minimal trading unit in the round lots market would benefit investors.     

Mispricing and trader positions in the S&P 500 index futures market

This study examines the effect of traders’ net positions on mispricing in the S&P 500 index futures market. We find that while positive mispricing is associated with hedgers’ net short and speculators’ net long positions, negative mispricing is related to hedgers’ net long and speculators’ net short positions. This relationship is stable for speculators across the pre- and post-2004 periods; however, it is dominant for hedgers particularly during the pre-2004 period. Contrary to the popular belief, our analysis finds no evidence that speculators are responsible for irrational movements in futures prices by enlarging the size of mispricing. Furthermore, a high magnitude of hedgers’ net positions signals the convergence of mispricing. We also found that according to a recent new disaggregation for trader positions, asset managers tend to delay the convergence of mispricing and hedge funds help shrink the size of mispricing. However, these relationships are not stronger than those implies by the hedger/speculator classification. These findings support the view that speculators’ positions are informative about the direction of index futures mispricing, while hedgers’ positions determine the convergence of mispricing.     

Arbitrage,speculation and futures price fluctuations with boundedly rational and heterogeneous agents

This paper proposes a dynamic model for the futures market with three types of investors. The bounded rationality and heterogeneity of investors are taken into consideration. The equilibrium of the system and its stability conditions are derived with mathematical analysis. In the equilibrium, the futures price and the spot price converge to the equilibrium simultaneously. The equilibrium is determined by many factors, including the risk appetite and the rationality of investors, the trading costs, the arbitrage basis price and the fundamental price. When the stability conditions are violated, complex dynamics will emerge in the market. As shown by the simulations, the arbitrage is likely to destabilize the market. Moreover, when investors have the high degree of rationality, the equilibrium will become unstable and the futures market is inefficient. Statistical analysis indicates that the model can reproduce the stylized facts observed in the futures market, such as long memory, volatility clustering and fat tail of returns.

     

货币抵补套利的盈亏价值分析

在货币利息套汇中做抵补交易 (常用远期外汇交易进行套利中的抵补 ) ,事先做好抵补套利的盈亏价值分析 ,能使货币套利者获得预期收益 ,风险小。本文就此及其相关问题做些探讨。     

不同约束条件下的股指期货价格区间研究

在股指期货持有成本定价模型的基础上,结合中国沪深300股指期货合约的特点,根据无套利原理,给出了考虑交易成本、期货保证金和不同借贷利率等限制条件下的股指期货定价区间和相应的交易策略,为从事沪深300股指期货套期保值、套利和投机交易的相关人员提供借鉴意义。     

OPEC news and predictability of oil futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach

This paper provides a novel perspective to the predictive ability of OPEC meeting dates and production announcements for (Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate) oil futures market returns and GARCH-based volatility using a nonparametric quantile-based methodology. We show a nonlinear relationship between oil futures returns and OPEC-based predictors; hence, linear Granger causality tests are misspecified and the linear model results of non-predictability are unreliable. When the quantile-causality test is implemented, we observe that the impact of OPEC variables is restricted to Brent Crude futures only (with no effect observed for the WTI market). Specifically, OPEC production announcements, and meeting dates predict only lower quantiles of the conditional distribution of Brent futures market returns. While, predictability of volatility covers the majority of the quantile distribution, barring extreme ends.     

Do Managers Trade on Public or Private Information? Evidence from Fundamental Valuations

Using accounting-based (residual income) valuations, this study examines the extent to which abnormal returns after insider share trades are explained by private information versus mispricing of public information. For a sample of insider trades in the Netherlands (1999–2008), I find that managers' share purchase decisions are associated with positive future abnormal returns as well as equity undervaluation. Even though undervaluation results in predictable price increases, positive abnormal returns following purchases persist after controlling for fundamental valuations. Thus, this study provides evidence on the sources of managers' personal trading gains and suggests that positive abnormal returns after insider share purchases reflect both private information and managers' responses to market mispricing of public information.     

Thin trading and mispricing profit opportunities in the Canadian commodity futures

This study examines whether thin trading problems in the Canadian futures market can create mispricing profit opportunities for canola and feed wheat futures traded over the period 1981 through 1993. A forecasting model is developed using historical and publicly available information to predict futures closing prices for these contracts, then two trading rules (a confidence interval and a percentage price change filter) are used to determine their profit potentials. The size of profits generated from trading canola futures under either rule during the period 1987–1993 is consistent with C. Carter's (1989) earlier results that no market inefficiency was detected during the 1980–1987 period. Similarly, profits from the Canadian feed wheat thinly traded contracts and from a control group using the highly-liquid American soybean oil and wheat contracts do not violate the efficiency theory. The average gross profit per trade analysis further suggests that net positive profits may not be viable for marginal investors.     

Volatility estimation for stock index options: A GARCH approach

The objective of this paper is to compare the mispricing of option valuation models when alternate techniques are applied to the volatility estimation. Akgiray (1989) shows that out-of-sample forecasts of return variances of stock indices based on a GARCH model are superior predictors of the actual ex-post variances in comparison to forecasts generated using standard rolling regression methods. A second objective of this study is to examine if Akgiray's results carry over to option valuation. Although we find that the implied volatility technique results in the least mispricing, within the class of forecasts using only historic returns data, the use of GARCH models will also significantly reduce model mispricing.     

虱内外燃料油期货市场不完善程度测度和实证检验

论文使用一个包含了价格期望因素以及套利机制不完全性的期货市场不完善程度测度模型，分别对上海和新加坡燃料油期货市场的不完善程度进行了检验。检验结果发现上海燃料油期货市场的不完善程度要比新加坡高很多，可见上海燃料油期货市场有待于进一步完善。最后，论文通过上海与新加坡燃料油期货市场的不同点进行分析，探讨了上海燃料油期货市场不完善程度的可能原因，对实证结果作了进一步解释，并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Volatility linkages in the spot and futures market in Australia: a copula approach

To better characterize the dependence structure of the joint returns distribution, we propose to blend copula functions with Asymmetric GARCH (AGARCH) models, which are allowed for generalized error distribution. We model the copula’s marginals by the AGARCH processes that can differentiate between the impacts of positive and negative shocks on the returns volatility while taking the large kurtosis of the returns into account. An application of the procedure is elaborated on the All Ordinaries Index and its corresponding Share Price Index on future contracts in Australia. The findings reveal that the two spot and future markets show a strong right tail dependence but no left tail dependence. This provides a very useful knowledge for the risk management and hedging in futures markets.     

Modelling the conditional volatility of commodity index futures as a regime switching process

Commodity index futures offer a versatile tool for gaining different forms of exposure to commodity markets. Volatility is a critical input in many of these applications. This paper examines issues in modelling the conditional variance of futures returns based on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI). Given that commodity markets tend to be ‘choppy’ (Webb, 1987 ), a general econometric model is proposed that allows for abrupt changes or regime shifts in volatility, transition probabilities which vary explicitly with observable fundamentals such as the basis, GARCH dynamics, seasonal variations and conditional leptokurtosis. The model is applied to daily futures returns on the GSCI over 1992–1997. The results show clear evidence of regime shifts in conditional mean and volatility. Once regime shifts are accounted for, GARCH effects are minimal. Consistent with the theory of storage, returns are more likely to switch to the high‐variance state when the basis is negative than when the basis is positive. The regime switching model also performs well in forecasting the daily volatility compared to standard GARCH models without regime switches. The model should be of interest to sophisticated traders who base their trading strategies on short‐term volatility movements, managed commodity funds interested in hedging an underlying diversified portfolio of commodities and investors of options and other derivatives tied to GSCI futures contracts. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

螺纹钢期货市场功能的实证检验

上海螺纹钢期货市场的巨大持仓量、成交量,表明其市场功能很可能得到了充分发挥。文章针对螺纹钢期货市场应有的套期保值、价格发现、套利功能,选择相应期、现数据进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:市场具备良好的套期保值效率,存在较为明显的跨期套利机会,期货价格对现货价格具有较强的引导作用。     

Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market

This paper investigates the effect of index risk-neutral skewness on subsequent market returns and explores whether this effect will vary with various types of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market. Using index futures returns as the proxy of market returns, the empirical results show that the index risk-neutral skewness has a significantly negative effect on subsequent index futures returns. Moreover, the effect of institutional investor sentiment on subsequent index futures returns varies with various types of institutional investor sentiment. Finally, the effect of index risk-neutral skewness on subsequent index futures returns relies on various types of institutional investor sentiment.     

Forecasting returns in the VIX futures market

This paper introduces a new forecasting model for VIX futures returns. The model is structural in nature and parsimonious, and contains parameters that are relatively easy to estimate. The forecasts of next day VIX futures returns based on this model are superior to those produced by a linear forecasting model that uses the same set of predictors. Moreover, the profits to a market-timing model based on the proposed forecasts are statistically and economically significant, and are robust to both the method used for adjusting for risk and transaction costs (up to around 15 basis points). In contrast, the forecasts generated by the linear forecasting model are not.     

Non‐linear Predictability of UK Stock Market Returns*

Linear predictability of stock market returns has been widely reported. However, recently developed theoretical research has suggested that due to the interaction of noise and arbitrage traders, stock returns are inherently non‐linear, whereby market dynamics differ between small and large returns. This paper examines whether an exponential smooth transition threshold model, which is capable of capturing this non‐linear behaviour, can provide a better characterization of UK stock market returns than either a linear model or an alternate non‐linear model. The results of both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample specification tests support the exponential smooth transition threshold model and hence the belief that investor behaviour does differ between large and small returns.     

股指期货投资策略与技巧

随着股指期货的渐行渐近,人们对股指期货的关注程度也在日益提高。作为中国内地第一个金融期货产品的沪深300指数期货,有其与其他金融产品不同的投资方法,并且有一定的复杂性。沪深300指数期货的主要用途有两个:利用沪深300指数期货对股票投资组合进行风险管理以及进行套利活动来获取无风险利润。正确认识股指期货并且能熟练掌握股指期货的投资策略对于投资者而言是十分重要的。文章阐述了股指期货两种投资用途的投资策略与技巧。     

The effect of short-sale restrictions on the information transmission of extended index futures trading

During the global financial crisis, two types of short-sale restrictions, i.e., the uptick restriction and the naked short-sale ban, were introduced in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). This provides an opportunity to examine whether these two types of short-sale restrictions reduce the speed at which the overnight spot returns and the trading period spot returns adjust to the bad news revealed through the index futures returns during the post-close and pre-open extensions. The results of the threshold GARCH(1,1) model show that only the short-sale ban significantly reduced the speed at which the overnight spot returns react to the bad news revealed by the futures returns of the TWSE index during the pre-open extended session     

States of psychological anchors and price behavior of Japanese yen futures

This study explores whether the relationship between Japanese yen futures returns and the corresponding equity returns is affected by the states of psychological anchors of the currency and stock markets. This study employs the linear-regression-based tree model (a machine learning method) to account for the framing effect of the anchors. The empirical results of the linear-regression-based tree model show that the currency price behaviors of momentum and reversal, and prediction by equity markets, vary with the anchors. Empirical evidence also indicates that the linear-regression-based tree model outperforms the OLS model based on the estimation results and out-of-sample forecasting. The forecasting performance of the linear-regression-based tree model can be improved along with an increase in the forecasting period.