US dollar and D-Mark as reserve assets

Zusammenfassung US-Dollar und D-Mark als Reservew?hrung. — Der Autor verwendet ein Modell der Diversifizierung von W?hrungsreserven, das auf der Vorstellung beruht, da\ die Diversifizierung weg vom Dollar haupts?chlich durch den Wegfall der Konvertibilit?tsbeschr?nkung für offizielle Dollarreserven verursacht worden sei. Aus der Untersuchung geht hervor, da\ diese Beschr?nkung wiederhergestellt wurde, nachdem sich die D-Mark zu einer zweiten Reservew?hrung entwickelt hatte, wobei die dominierende Rolle des Dollars auf der Gr?\e der amerikanischen Wirtschaft und ihres Kapitalmarkts beruht, w?hrend die D-Mark ihre zunehmende Bedeutung ihrem Ruf als berechenbare W?hrung mit niedriger Inflationsrate verdankt. Demnach kann die Diversifizierung von W?hrungsreserven als ein stabilisierendes Element im internationalen W?hrungssystem angesehen werden.

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Résumé US dollar et DM comme réserves monétaires. — Cette étude présente un modèle concernant la diversification des réserves basé sur l’opinion que la diversification des réserves de dollar était principalement causée par l’abolition de la contrainte de convertibilité aux réserves officielles de dollar. L’analyse propose que cette contrainte a été réétablie par l’évolution de la DM comme une deuxième réserve monétaire principale — en attribuant le róle dominant du dollar à l’importance de l’économie américaine et de son marché des capitaux et le róle augmentant de la DM à son réputation comme une monnaie prédisable d’une inflation basse. C’est pourquoi on peut regarder la diversification des réserves comme un élément qui stabilise le système monétaire international.

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Resumen El dólar EE.UU. y el marco alemán como activos de réserva. — En este trabajo se presenta un modelo de diversificatión de reservas basado en la opinion que la diversificatión hacia activos en monedas alternativas al dólar fué causada por la abolición de la restriction sobre la convertibilidad de reservas oficiales en dólares. El análisis sugiere que esta restrictión fué reestablecida a raiz de la evolución del marco alemán hasta llegar a ser la segunda moneda de reserva en el mundo, atribuyéndole el papel dominante del dólar al tama?o de la economia de los EE.UU. y a su mercado de capitales, y el creciente papel del marco alemán a su reputación como moneda predecible y de baja inflación. La diversificación de réservas puede por ello ser considerada como un elemento estabilizador en el sistema monetario international.

     

The population of the Russian Federation: Solvency dynamics and depopulation

The authors use regression models to explain the main reasons for a fall in the birth-rate and growth in mortality in the Russian Federation. They determine funds required to overcome the natural loss of the population. Sources for mobilizing these funds are indicated, as are inflation-free ways of their realization     

Employment and labor market dynamics in the Russian Federation until 2030

The paper considers inertial and factor forecasts of the basic parameters of the employment and labor market dynamics in Russia. Estimates of the future state in the area of employment are given for the national and regional levels by types of economic activity. The basic factors acting on the employment and labor market dynamics are also analyzed at the national and regional levels.     

Long-term development prospects of the Russian information and communications sector

This paper presents a development forecast for the Russian information and communications sector. Two scenarios-inert and innovative investment—are explored for each period. According to the results of our study, in the period from 2010 to 2030, the output of the Russian information and communications sector will increase by a factor of 3.52–4 under the investment scenario and by a factor of 2–2.5 under the inert scenario. This is due to the limited private and public resources that could be invested in the sector on a large scale, as well as to the absence of basic innovation in the area of information and communication technologies, which could have a significant economic impact and provide a basis for a new technological order. It is concluded that the information and communications sector is running out of its market expansion potential.     

Freehold land tenure: Problems and prospects

The purpose of this paper is first to define tenure and freehold tenure and then to consider traditional land tenure and how it would be affected by the introduction of freehold tenure.     

Modern problems and development prospects of the Russian budgetary system

The article describes problems of modern budgetary system of Russia. If these problems have been solved, economic growth could be restored. Suggested measures of budgetary policy have been divided into priority measures, which are affected in the next one or two years, as well as medium-term measures     

International reserve flows: Seemingly unrelated regressions

Zusammenfassung Die Bewegung von W?hrungsreserven: Anscheinend unverbundene Regressionen. — Die hier vorgelegten empirischen Sch?tzungen, die im Rahmen der monet?ren Zahlungsbilanztheorie entwickelt worden sind, vermitteln nützliche Einblicke in die internationale monet?re Anpassung, und zwar in zweierlei Hinsicht. Erstens verbesserte die Verwendung eines anscheinend unverbundenen Regressionsansatzes bei der Sch?tzung der Bewegung von W?hrungsreserven die Sch?tzeffizienz gegenüber den üblichen OLS-Techniken. Dieser Gewinn an Effizienz ergab sich aus einer Korrelation zwischen den St?rtermen in dem Satz von Gleichungen; so sind Faktoren, die in den ursprünglichen Determinanten nicht enthalten sind, aber gemeinsam die Zahlungsbilanz einer Gruppe von L?ndern beeinflussen, durch das Sch?tzverfahren erfaβt worden. Zweitens gestattete die Verwendung von drei Spezifikationen der Gleichung für internationale Reservestr?me eine Untersuchung der Annahmen einheitlicher M?rkte für Güter und finanzielle Aktiva. Insbesondere wurden die Sch?tzergebnisse durch die Substitution von nationalen Preis- und Zinsvariablen durch das US-Preisniveau und die US-Zinss?tze nicht wesentlich ver?ndert. Dies ist ein besonders eindrucksvolles Ergebnis, weil es so sehr für einen hohen Grad der Integration der internationalen Güter- und Kapitalm?rkte spricht. Insgesamt stützen die Ergebnisse stark den monet?ren Ansatz der Zahlungsbilanzanpassung und weisen auβerdem auf den Nutzen weiterer theoretischer und empirischer Forschung hin, die sich mit den Beziehungen zwischen L?ndern im Rahmen der hochintegrierten Weltm?rkte befassen.

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Résumé Les flux de réserve internationale: Les régressions apparemment pas concernées. — L’évidence empirique présentée ici et développée en contexte de l’approche monétaire à la balance des paiements permet des aper?us utiles d’adjustement monétaire mondial en deux aspects. Premièrement, l’utilisation d’une approche des régressions apparemment pas concernées pour estimer les flux de réserve internationale pour huit nations Européennes améliorait l’efficience d’estimation vis-à-vis les techniques standardisées de MCO. Ce gain en efficience était le résultat d’une corrélation entre les termes d’erreur dans la série d’équation: c’est pourquoi des facteurs qui ne sont pas inclus dans les déterminants fondamentaux mais qui ensemble influencent la balance des paiements d’un groupe des pays sont contenus dans la procédure d’estimation. Deuxièmement l’utilisation des trois spécifications de l’équation de flux de réserve internationale permet l’examen des suppositions sur des biens unifiés et des marchés d’actif. Particulièrement, la substitution du niveau de prix des E. U. et du taux d’intérêt à la place des variables de prix national et de taux d’intérêt ne changeaient pas les résultats d’estimation substantiellement. C’est un résultat particulièrement impressionant parce qu’il dépend si fortement d’un degré haut de l’intégration sur les marchés financiers et des biens internationaux. Comme résumé on peut dire que les résultats fortement supportent les vues d’approche monétaire d’adjustement des paiements mondiaux et, de plus, indiquent l’utilité des recherches additionelles avec l’attention théoriques et empiriques à l’interaction parmi des pays en contexte des marchés mondiaux fortement intégrés.

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Resumen Flujos internacionales de reserva: regresiones aparentemente no relacionadas. — La evidencia empírica presentada aquí y desarrollada en el contexto de un planteamiento monetario de la balanza de pagos provee discernimientos provechosos sobre el ajuste monetario mundial en dos aspectos. Primero, la utilización de un planteamiento de regresiones aparentemente no relacionadas para estimar los flujos de reservas internacionales para ocho países europeos mejoró la eficiencia de estimación frente a técnicas standard OLS. Este mejoramiento en la eficiencia resultó de una correlación entre los términos de error en el set de ecuaciones; de esta manera los factores que no son incluidos dentro de los déterminantes fundamentales, pero que conjuntamente determinan la balanza de pagos de un grupo de países, se captan en el procedimiento de estimación. Segundo, la utilización de très especificaciones de la ecuación de flujo de reservas internacionales permitió examinar los supuestos de bienes unificados y mercados de valores. En particular, la sustitución del nivel de precios y de la tasa de interés de los EEUU por precios nacionales y tasas de interés variables, no alteró sustancialmente los resultados de la estimación. Este es un resultado particularmente impresionante, porque dépende tan altamente del grado de integración en los mercados internacionales de bienes y financieros. En suma, los resultados apoyan fuertemente las visiones de planteamientos monetarios del ajuste de pagos mundiales y, adicionalmente, apuntan hacia el provecho que tendrán investigaciones aditionales con enfoque teórico y empírico hacia la interacción entre países en el contexto de mercados mundiales altamente integrados.

     

Relationships between development factors of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

The article describes long-term possibilities for participation in domestic machine engineering in major economic projects. The basic relationships between economic, institutional, and technological factors of regional development are identified. Some ideas are proposed for the substantiation of innovative development programs for the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation.     

Features and competition in the market for mortgage insurance in the Russian Federation

The provision of mortgage insurance is considered in the article based on market research and of programs for comprehensive mortgage insurance, for mortgage insurance, and for mortgage insurance without involving insurance mechanisms. As follows from the analysis based on the characteristics of the Russian market of mortgage insurance, we can predict its development taking into account factors of intermarket competition.     

Security-development nexus in strategic planning in the Russian Federation: From goal-setting to forecasting

This paper examines the implementation of the doctrinal principle of interdependence between security and development in the current Russian strategic planning documents devoted to goal-setting and forecasting. The authors make several recommendations on how to improve the forecasting methodology and the effectiveness of strategic planning in the Russian Federation in a complex geopolitical environment with increased risks to national security and sustainable development.     

Improving the Factor Efficiency of Machinery in the Regions of the Russian Federation

The article has presented the results of research conducted to evaluate the influence of investment and innovation factors on the development of machinery in the regions of the Russian Federation. The research uses unique methods of assessing the innovative component of investment activity and the effectiveness of innovations. They have been used to perform quantitative evaluations of investment effectiveness and innovation activities in regions with the developed machinery industry, as well as the evaluation of the influence of innovation and investment factors on production indicators and foreign economic activity in these regions. The obtained results have shown that the innovative and investment activities in the majority of regions have a significant impact on the competitiveness of the output in machinery industry and potential of the regional exports. The regional machinery production behavior has been forecasted based on this.     

Consequences of the inertial development of the labor potential in the Russian Federation

The inertial trends of the dynamics of balance indices of labor force of the Russian Federation are considered in this article, and their characteristics are given. The main trends behind the increase in the labor potential of the country and the increase in the efficiency of its usage are proposed here. The deficit values of the national labor power at different ratios of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate and labor capacity that can be interpreted as values describing Russia’s economy’s need for international labor power are evaluated.     

Educational credit in Russia: Problems and prospects

The paper analyzes problems and prospects of education crediting in Russia, sums up the author’s personal experience of participation in the development and management of the education crediting system within the framework of a private business initiative (the Credo program), as well as in various working groups (at the Russian Federation State Duma, the Ministry of Education and Science, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, etc.) set up to discuss opportunities and to work out recommendations for the development of educational credit in the Russian Federation.     

Long-term forecast of the production capacity of high-tech industries in the Russian Federation

This article reviews the status and trends in the development of science-intensive and high-tech industries in Russia. Basic provisions of the long-term forecast of the dynamics of high-tech industries are given. Its parameters are grounded in the forecast of the economic development of Russia until 2030, developed by the Institute of Economic Forecasting.     

Involvement of savings in the economy and development of reproduction processes in the Russian Federation

The article considers the reproductive aspect of Russia??s investment development. A characteristic of the completeness of use of investment resources is given, and the reasons that limit the accumulation of capital in the country are indicated. The basic mechanisms that provide investment growth in industries and opportunities for improvement are considered.     

中国新疆与俄罗斯贸易互补性的实证分析

在2000年-2007年间,中国新疆与俄罗斯的贸易规模不断扩大且增长势头强劲,这主要归因于中国新疆与俄罗斯在贸易领域内存在着较强的互补性。本文从实证分析的角度,利用贸易强度指数、显示性比较优（劣）势指数和贸易互补性指数等分析工具,定量地说明了中国新疆与俄罗斯之间贸易联系的紧密程度和贸易互补性的强弱程度。     

Peri‐urban land tenure: Problems and prospects

Informal settlements in Natal are discussed. The need for and the reasons against informal settlement are examined. Means of overcoming the shortcomings of informal settlement are suggested and the need for security of tenure in order to promote ‘self‐help’ is highlighted.     

Outsourcing Noncore Activities of Industrial Enterprises in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation

The growing competition and increasingly diversified structure of the world economy and consumption of various resources require the intensification of innovative industrial activity in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and enhancement of its management effectiveness. The paper has considered theoretical foundations for industrial service development. It has been shown that participation of small innovative businesses in industrial outsourcing can promote the introduction of innovative technologies and the corresponding equipment for industrial enterprises.     

Analysis of tendencies in regional and sectoral structure of economy of subjects of the Russian Federation

The paper is devoted to the formation of the database on the principal sectors of the economy of the subjects (regions) of the Russian Federation needed to construct well-coordinated forecast scenarios of economic growth. The major tendencies in changes of the regional-sectoral structure of the economy are analyzed.     

Estimation of the production function with the variable utilization of capital assets in the Russian economy

The paper considers the problem of estimating aggregate production functions taking into account the variable utilization rate of the capital assets that act as an unobservable variable for the macro and meso levels. The proposed approach is based on the microeconomic foundations of the producer’s behavior with the appropriate modification of the problem on optimizing the volumes of production inputs and outputs. Parameter estimates have been given for the Cobb–Douglas-type production function and the performance of the utilization rate of the capital assets in Russian economy over 2002–2014. The high statistical dependence of the performance of investment in fixed capital on changes in the utilization rate of the capital assets has been revealed.