美联储超常规政策退出分析

2009年下半年以来,尤其是进入2010年,美联储超常规金融救助政策“退出”的迹象越来越明显。美联储的政策“退出”将选择先“数量”（缩减流动性投放、降低存款机构超额准备金水平）、后“价格”（加息）的路径。目前尚处于论证和测试的阶段。由于超常规政策退出面临多种困难和障碍,美联储的“退出”将是谨慎、缓慢、渐进的,并将根据经济前景和金融市场状况的变化进行调整。我国应密切跟踪美联储的政策动向,做好宏观调控预案,及时出台相应政策。     

次贷危机背景下美联储的危机政策理念

本文结合以往的危机干预经验,以美联储的次贷危机应对措施为重点,分析、归纳美联储危机政策操作的理念.在这次危机处理中,美联储秉持实用主义原则,在流动性工具上进行了大胆创新,注资范围也大大扩展,同时多次大幅度降息,这些激进的、创新的举措是与当前美联储所面对的复杂的、严峻的局面相称的.这些创新大大丰富了央行应对危机的手段,提高了解决危机的能力,但同时也可能带来道德风险问题.     

多重货币政策目标下的双目标制

货币政策目标是选择多重目标还是单一目标，决定于一国政治，经济与金融体制，根据我国政策，经济与金融体制及当前面临的经济形势与任务，我国货币政策目标应该是多重目标，其中主要是仙值稳定与经济增长。为了保证货币政策目标的实现，应该对币值稳定，经济增长两大目标加以量化，实施通货膨胀率，经济增长率双目标制。     

美联储应对金融危机的货币政策操作与效果

美国次贷危机发生后,银行体系遭受重创,信贷活动萎缩,市场利率上升,实体经济难以得到资金支持,美国经济陷入了衰退。为了刺激经济复苏,稳定金融市场,修复银行体系,美联储密集地进行货币政策操作,通过各种方式向市场注入流动性。本文对2007年以来美联储所采取的货币政策加以梳理,对其影响进行分析,并提出我国的应对之策。     

Federal Monetary Policy

What is the optimal institutional structure for a federal central bank? The framework developed in this paper is used to analyze under what conditions an individual region will prefer a monetary union to be organized according to regional or common influences and how a combination of both can be rationalized. The implications of an enlargement of a monetary union for changes in its institutional setup are also derived.     

The Influence of Economists On the Federal Reserve Act

Many economists helped to lay the groundwork for the Federal Reserve. Some did important work analyzing the problems of the National Bank System and arguing for formation of a central bank in economics journals. At least as importantly, if not more so, some economists took an active role in the reform movement and provided help and advice with the actual Congressional bill. Among these are J. Lawrence Laughlin, who chaired a group that actively raised support for the Federal Reserve Act in Congressional districts, and H. Parker Willis, who served as an expert for the subcommittee which wrote the original draft of what became the Federal Reserve Act. More broadly, this episode illustrates the impact that intellectuals and ideas can have on actual events; the analysis contemporary economists did in academic journals and in more political activities before and after the panic of 1907 guided the actual formation of a working central bank (JEL B10, N21).     

瑞典环境保护的政策与目标

瑞典是世界上实施环境保护最为严格的国家之一,政府致力于建设绿色福利国家。瑞典政府环境保护的总目标是实现可持续发展,在一代人时间范围内,为后代留下一个没有环境问题的社会。为此,瑞典政府制定了零污染的环境保护政策和一系列明确的环境保护目标以及实现这些目标的战略与措施,为全国各部门、各地方的环境规划与行动提供统一框架,是瑞典所有环境相关发展的规范。本文介绍了瑞典环境目标的沿革与16项环境质量目标的具体内容,可供政府有关部门参考与借鉴。     

Daily Bundesbank and Federal Reserve Interventions

This paper reports on the results of an empirical investigation into the objectives of daily foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U.S. dollar-Deutsche Mark market. Tobit analysis is implemented to estimate the intervention reaction functions consistently. It is found that an increase in the conditional variance in daily exchange rate returns derived from a GARCH model estimated in the paper, led the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve to increase the volume of intervention, both in case of dollar-sales and purchases on account of their leaning against the wind policy.We are grateful to the Deutsche Bundesbank, Hauptabteilung Ausland for kindly providing, on a confidential base, the daily data on the official interventions of the Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve, the latter only to the extent that they affected the net foreign position of the Bundesbank. Also, we want to thank Theo Nijman and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Opinions and errors are our own responsibility.     

Federal Reserve communications and newswire coverage

In this article, we explore the determinants of newswire coverage of Federal Reserve (Fed) communications. Our sample covers all 344 forward-looking communications made in the period May 1999 to May 2004. We find, first, that there is a higher likelihood of newswire coverage for monetary policy reports and speeches by Chairman Greenspan than for testimony and speeches by other Fed members. Furthermore, communications with an explicit monetary policy inclination or tone different from the current interest rate path are particularly likely to be covered. However, the release of important macroeconomic news reduces the likelihood of newswire coverage. Second, speeches by regional Fed presidents are relatively less likely to be reported than speeches by Board members. Nevertheless, newswire coverage of Fed president speeches is more likely if central bank communication is stale. Finally, our results indicate that Ben Bernanke played a distinguished role even before his Chairmanship.     

Does Partisan Heritage Matter? The Case of the Federal Reserve

Received evidence suggests that changes in appointer- and overseer-preferencesinfluence monetary policy (i.e., partisan heritage matters).Evidence presented here, on the other hand, is consistent withchanges in the cost of pursuing a common preference influencingpolicy. I draw this evidence from a panel of Federal Open MarketCommittee (FOMC) votes and find support for the following conclusions:(1) Federal Reserve Board (FRB) governors who were nominatedand confirmed by the same party (Republican or Democrat) prefersignificantly looser policy than do other FOMC members. (2)Monetary policy is significantly looser when either party controlsthe oversight mechanism (i.e., the presidency and Senate) thanwhen control is split. (3) Oversight acts less forcefully ondistrict bank presidents than on FRB governors. In short, thepresent evidence suggests that political agents from both partiesprefer loose money and pursue this preference more efficientlywhen their parties are aligned.     

The structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board Multicountry Model

The FRB Multicountry Model (MCM) is a linked system of five quarterly national macroeconometric models of the USA, Canada, FR Germany, Japan and the UK. The MCM emphasizes international linkages and has equations for trade in goods and services, investment income flows and exchange rates. This paper documents the current version of the MCM. The paper describes the theoretical structure of the model and presents the empirical estimation results. The paper also describes a series of simulations of fiscal and monetary policy scenarios and external shocks. A complete listing of the model is given.     

准备金制度功能的异化与我国准备金政策的取向

"利率走廊"调控是当前国际最新的利率调控范式,加拿大等国在"利率走廊"调控基础上,实行零准备制度,这使人们误认为准备金制度似乎走到头了.实际情况并非如此,其实行零准备金并非抛弃准备金制度,而是在利率调控的新背景下,以准备金为零的制度.它的机制和功能与传统准备金制度有很大的异化,但是却代表着准备金制度发展演变的趋势.所以研究准备金制度功能异化的动因,以及它未来的变动趋势,对于我国准备金制度的规范完善具有重要的借鉴意义.     

'Independence' and the founding of the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve is ‘independent’, but contrary to opinions often expressed, it was not intended by its creators to be free from political control, although others involved in the debate over its establishment hoped that it would be. ‘Independence’ was independence from banking interests, not government. A gradual development of independence preceded a much greater acquisition of power during the Reagan Presidency. The lessons of history include the fact that with few changes in the Federal Reserve Act, its position in the American government has been dramatically transformed. Consequently, contrary to common practice in the economics literature, the ‘independence’ (from government) of a central bank evidently cannot be measured by tabulating characteristics of its statutes.     

美国联邦储备委员会的透明化趋势及论证

美国联邦储备委员会曾奉行私隐性原则,将货币政策长期笼罩在神秘面纱之后.1980年代以来,美联储开始走向开放和透明,尤其是2006年主张通货膨胀目标制的伯南克执掌美联储后,美联储透明度更是大为提升.美联储的透明化不是孤立的个案,而是世界范围内中央银行制度较为集中的变化趋势之一.透明化之所以成为中央银行制度变革的基本方向,是因为提高中央银行透明度,在经济上可以增强货币政策的有效性,在政治上则是宪政国家的根本要求.各国应结合本国国情选择中央银行制度的最优透明度.     

Federal Monetary Policy: A Comment

We comment on an article published in this journal by Hefeker (2003) and reveal an inconsistency in his analysis of monetary policy in federal monetary unions. We clarify an implicit assumption in his model and show that even when this further assumption is met, Hefeker's (2003) claim that a pure majority vote by the regions and the central government results in a monetary authority consisting solely of regionally appointed governors is not generally valid in the context of his model.     

企业生态责任:性质本源、目标约束与政策导向

国有和私营企业都有承担生态责任的现实需要,但由于企业性质和目标约束之间存在着一定的差异而导致其生态责任也各有不同。从国有和私营企业的性质出发,将其生存和发展的根本目标分为经济和生态目标,分别从其面对的经济目标硬约束和生态目标软约束出发讨论各自的生态责任,既可以进行有效地控制以促进企业担当生态责任,也能够帮助政府给予更加有效的政策指导,从而最终实现国有和私营企业经济价值和社会价值。     

Strategic Distortion of the Objectives of Trade Policy

Abstract

By employing a simple three-country model in which there are two exporting countries and one consuming country, this paper analyses the consequences of one-country strategic distortion of the objectives of trade policy. It finds that although an exporting country can benefit from strategic distortion, it would be preferred that the importing country distorts its policy. Furthermore, it is found that preferential trading agreements can emerge endogenously.     

我国双目标基础货币规则的设定

通过VEC模型研究发现,我国基础货币增长率、实际GDP增长率、CPI、货币流通速度之间具有趋势特征,存在显著相关性,基础货币的可控性与可测性良好且流通速度较为稳定;基础货币对实际GDP增长率偏差的反应程度要高于通货膨胀率偏差,需在规则设定中赋予更大的权重;能实现经济增长和物价稳定双重目标的基础货币规则,其目标值的设定可以是点或是区间,而区间目标既能体现规则的严肃性又能实现操作的灵活性,还能满足货币政策逆风向调节的本质特征。