Economics and Reality: A philosophical critique of transcendental realism

In Economics and Reality Tony Lawson seeks to criticise and offer an alternative to mainstream economic theorising. The book draws upon the work of Bhaskar, advocating a form of realism termed transcendental realism, in opposition to the empirical realism taken to underpin mainstream theorising. However, the specific objections advanced by Lawson against empirical realism are frequently confused and confusing. Lawson's own appeal to structures suffers from lack of definition, and empirical realism seems more applicable to Keynesian, not mainstream, economics. The claim that the social sciences can be modelled on the natural sciences is not particularly illuminating.     

The breakdown of the IS–LM synthesis: implications for post-Keynesian economic theory

The monetarist and the new classical economics attack routed the IS–LM version of Keynesian theory and the large scale econometric models from the centre of macroeconomic research. However monetarism and the new classical economics were more successful as a critique of the IS–LM orthodoxy than as a basis for fruitful research and policy analysis.

Post-Keynesian economists also attack the IS–LM orthodoxy, mainly because it misspecified ‘… the economic society in which we actually live’. Post-Keynesians that emphasized financial and labour markets argued that properties of the real world economy made instability normal results ofmarket interactions.

The vacuum in main line theory that developed as the shortcomings of monetarism became evident led to a revival of interest in basic Keynesian propositions. This has spawned what is now labeled a new Keynesian economics. New Keynesian economists conform to the modeling standards set by the new classical rational expectations school but claim to get Keynesian results. To a degree these results are compatible with propositions of post-Keynesian economics.

It is suggested that a convergence between the new and the post-Keynesian economics can be expected, and the result is likely to be fruitful.     

Market forms and effective demand: Keynesian results with perfect competition ∗

In recent years there has been a flourishing of models with microfoundations based on imperfect (or monopolistic) competition that claim to yield Keynesian results which, it is held, are incompatible with perfect competi-tion. The paper shows that Keynes’s results do not depend on market forms but are contingent on his treatment of investment. In Keynes’s analysis, the existence of underemployment equilibria is demonstrated regardless of the assumed market form. Far from taking into account the importance of investment, recent models with ‘Keynesian results’ ignore investment altogether.

The article argues that if the investment demand function, with its distinctive characteristics, is removed, involuntary unemployment can be explained only by imperfections or rigidities that prevent producers from pushing their supply up to the level of full employment. A conclusion that Keynes wanted to avoid.

The introduction of a hypothesis of market forms different from imperfect competition may be useful in order to develop macroeconomics along more realistic lines, however, as the conclusions of the paper suggest, this hypothesis loses its analytical power if made separately from a satisfactory treatment of investment.     

Eriksson on critical realism: a comment

Abstract

This note offers a critique of Ralf Eriksson's treatment of Critical Realism. Eriksson, in the context of an analysis of Keynes, makes several mistaken claims about Critical Realism. Specifically, contrary to Eriksson, Critical Realism does not claim that the world is independent of consciousness, that isolation and closure are equivalent, that abstraction and closure are equivalent, that Lawson employs double standards in the possibility of closed systems, or that realist theories must be simple. Eriksson attacks a vulgar form of realism, but not Critical Realism as it currently stands. We also argue that Eriksson's misinterpretations may be partially due to some ambiguous statements in the Critical Realist literature.     

Was Keynes a Realist?

Lawson (1989a) has interpreted Keynes as a philosophical realist, adhering to the view that the economy has a constant inner structure. Against this it is claimed below that, although Keynes speaks about realism, it is not in this sense, but in the common sense way of referring to actually observable entities of an economic model. In addition, it can be shown that Keynes's views can be interpreted as instrumentalist—he emphasises characteristics such as usefulness and convenience, besides and instead of truth. Thus, truth and truthlike concepts do not, in Keynes's thinking, have the paramount position that they have in realist philosophy.     

Futures We Are In

The economics literature includes several critiques of the dominant utilitarian position, as respectively offered by Posner (1979), Rawls (1971), Sen (1987) and institutionalist followers of John Dewey. There is also now a rapidly growing literature on the economics of happiness. Another quite distinctive position of social importance on these issues is provided by Joseph Ratzinger, also known as Pope Benedict XVI. It offers an alternative conception of ontology and teleology, and reflects conceptions of freedom, happiness, man and rationality different from those found in orthodox economics, and different too from those found in the above-mentioned critiques. It intersects with recent writings of Lawson (2003), Nelson (2010) and Tilman (2008).

In order to promote critical scrutiny of the a priori positions embedded in contending schools of economic thought, it follows that the implications of this Ratzinger critique should be consciously confronted by economists, including institutionalists, with whom various starting points are shared.     

A critical realist interpretation of evolutionary growth theorising

The paper discusses a critical realist interpretation of evolutionarygrowth theorising by focusing on some of its basic characteristics.The evolutionary ontology is complex, differentiated, structured,systemic, open, ever-changing and radically uncertain. Its methodologytends to be increasingly based on ‘appreciative’theorising, retroductive explanations and interdisciplinaryanalysis. After discussing these features, the paper suggeststhat critical realism may indeed constitute an important philosophicaland methodological foundation for the future development ofevolutionary theories of economic growth.     

Labor supply: Toward the construction of an alternative conception from post Keynesian and institutional economics

Post Keynesian and institutional economics have traditionally maintained a critical stance toward the orthodox model of labor supply, questioning many of its underlying assumptions. Nevertheless, this critical view has not led to the formulation of an alternative conception of labor supply that is sufficiently coherent and structured to be generally accepted within these branches of the literature. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to contribute to the construction of such an alternative. To do so, the article starts by analyzing the relationship between the reasons that lead to individuals offering their labor and what that activity can bring to human beings in return. Secondly, the authors present an alternative concept of what workers contribute at work. They then analyze how the decision-making process regarding the labor supply actually takes place. Finally, the article concludes by briefly presenting certain additional points, in particular how differentiation is an inherent feature of the labor supply.     

Causal Laws,Functional Relations and Tendencies

This paper draws upon critical realism to argue that the widespread use of functional relations and laws in economics is misconceived. This misconception stems from the inappropriate use of a deductivist mode of theorising; an empirical realist ontology; and a notion of causality as mere regularity or constant conjunction, all of which are associated with functional relations and laws. Not only does critical realism identify the cause of the misconception, it sustains an alternative causal/explanatory mode of theorising; a stratified ontology; a notion of causality as powers; and an alternative notion of law as tendency. Marx's ideas on the tendencies to employment and unemployment are used as an example of economic theory consistent with these alternatives.     

Patinkin as a reader of Keynes’ General Theory: Are wage cuts a good remedy to unemployment?1

Abstract

This paper analyses Patinkin's appraisal of Keynes’ concept of involuntary unemployment while focusing on his reading of the General Theory Chapter 19. On several critical issues, Patinkin departs from Keynes’ original matters of concerns. He leans against an individual criterion for unemployment and implicitly endorses Wicksell's understanding of voluntary unemployment as chosen leisure. His appraisal of involuntary unemployment as a disequilibrium phenomenon ultimately relies on nominal rigidities and assumes the existence of a competitive adjustment process. On all these three critical points, Patinkin departs from Keynes but also initiates the contemporary New Keynesian programme that went even further from Keynes.     

Three macroeconomic syntheses of vintage 1937: Hicks,Haberler, and Lundberg

Abstract

The 1920s and 1930s were years of intensive debate about economic dynamics and stabilisation policies. There was a large variety of explanations of cycles and depressions, and Keynes’ General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) was pitched against them. In 1937, followed three different attempts to provide synthetic expositions of macroeconomic theory that would deal with the Keynesian challenge: Hicks’ Mr. Keynes and the “Classics”, Haberler's Prosperity and Depression, and Lundberg's Studies in the Theory of Economic Expansion. This paper compares those 1937 syntheses and contrasts them with the “Neoclassical Synthesis” and the current “New Neoclassical Synthesis”.     

Annual cost of hospitalization,inpatient rehabilitation and sick leave of anal cancer in Germany

Abstract

Objective:

Literature on the economic burden of anal cancer in Germany is scarce. About 84% of these cancers are associated with human papillomavirus infection. This study, therefore, aimed to assess the annual costs of human papillomavirus-related anal cancer incurred by hospitalization, inpatient rehabilitation, and sick leave in 2008 in Germany.

Methods:

A cross-sectional retrospective analysis of five German databases covering hospital treatment, inpatient rehabilitation, and sick leave in 2008 was performed. All hospital, inpatient rehabilitation, and sick leave cases due to anal cancer in 2008 were analyzed. Associated numbers of anal cancer hospitalizations, healthcare resource use, and costs were identified and extracted using the ICD-10 code C21 as the main diagnosis. The annual cost of human papillomavirus-related anal cancer was estimated based on the percentage of anal cancer likely to be attributable to human papillomavirus.

Results:

In 2008, there were 5774 hospitalizations (39% males, 61% females), 517 inpatient rehabilitations, and 897 sick leaves due to anal cancer representing costs of €34.11 million. The estimated annual costs associated with human papillomavirus-related anal cancer were €28.72 million, mainly attributed to females (62%). Direct costs accounted for 90% (86% for hospital treatment, 4% for inpatient rehabilitation) and indirect costs due to sick leave accounted for 10% of human papillomavirus-related costs.

Conclusions:

The economic burden of human papillomavirus-related anal cancer in 2008 in Germany is under-estimated, since costs incurred by outpatient management, outpatient chemotherapy, long-term care, premature retirement, and premature death were not included. However, this study is the first analysis to investigate the economic burden of anal cancer in Germany. The estimated annual costs of human papillomavirus-related anal cancer contribute to a significant economic burden in Germany and should be considered when assessing health and economic benefits of human papillomavirus vaccination in both genders.     

A Nobel Prize for Asymmetric Information: The economic contributions of George Akerlof,Michael Spence and Joseph Stiglitz

This paper reviews the research related to the asymmetric information of George Akerlof, Michael Spence and Joseph Stiglitz, for which they jointly received the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics. After recounting their overall careers, the history of the asymmetric information idea is presented and their key papers are discussed. This is followed by an examination of various applications of the concept, including in industrial organization and microeconomic dynamics, efficiency wage theories of unem ployment, credit market rationing theory, and issues of economic development and global stability. The degree to which these latter theories can be considered to be truly Keynesian is also considered.     

The Cambridge School of Keynesian Economics

There have been strong ties between the Cambridge Journal ofEconomics (CJE) and the Cambridge School of Keynesian Economics,from the very beginning. In this paper, the author investigatesthe environment that saw the birth of the CJE at Cambridge (UK),in 1977, and the relationship that linked it to the direct pupilsof Keynes. A critical question is explicitly examined: why didn'tthe ‘Keynesian revolution’ succeed in becoming apermanent winning paradigm? Some behavioural mistakes of themembers of the Keynesian School may explain this lack of success,but only to a certain extent. In any case, there were and therestill are remedies too. But what we are inheriting is a uniqueset of analytical building blocks (the paper lists eight ofthem) that makes this School of economics a viable (and in somedirections definitely superior) alternative to mainstream economics.Admittedly, there is some important work still to be done. Thepaper highlights the need for a two-stage approach, addressingpure theory and extensive institutional analysis. It is arguedthat a combination of the two would strengthen the coherenceof the theoretical foundations, and at the same time would providea fruitful extension of economic analysis to empirical, institutionaland economic dynamics investigations.     

Analyzing the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Does Fiscal Policy Play a Valuable Role in Stabilisation?

This paper provides an overview of recent papers which use estimatedNew Keynesian models to study the extent to which fiscal policycan be used to stabilize the economy. We use a variety of differentNew Keynesian models, estimated on data for both the US andfor the Euro area, and highlight the diverse transmission channelsthrough which fiscal policy acts in these models. Although wefind that fiscal policy can provide a useful complement to monetarypolicy, especially in models where consumers have finite horizons,there are important limitations to the value added of fiscalpolicy. (JEL E58, E62, E63)     

Instability and Crisis in Financial Complex Systems

This paper contrasts the Efficient Markets Hypothesis with Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH), taking into account the dynamic complexity of financial markets. This approach offers analytical tools that can account for crisis through processes endogenous to contemporary economies. Recent work, notably by J. Barkley Rosser, has suggested that complex dynamics is a strong foundations for Keynesian models and results. Group dynamics enter into the analysis in at least two ways: they provide an independent source of fundamental uncertainty which, as discussed by Keynes himself, can lead to speculative bubbles in asset markets, and they can cause overreactions in both lenders' and borrowers' attitudes toward risk. These aspects can lead to financial fragility and instability following a variety of complex dynamics. I shall argue that a financially complex system is, according to the FIH, inherently flawed and unstable: in the absence of adequate economic policy boom and bust phenomena, in financial markets which are fuelled by credit booms and busts, may generate endogenous instability and systemic crisis, such as the recent sub-prime mortgage crisis.

[O]ur economic leadership does not seem to be aware that the normal functioning of our economy leads to financial trauma and crisis, inflation, currency depreciations, unemployment, and poverty in the midst of what could be virtually universal affluence—in short, that financially complex capitalism is inherently flawed. (Minsky, 1986, p. 287; our emphasis)     

Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers*

Recent empirical findings attribute a central role to the degree of economic openness to determine the size of the fiscal multiplier. See, for instance, Ilzetzki et al. (2013) [How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers? Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(2), 239–254]. However, traditional macroeconomic models have difficulties to account for this evidence. By introducing ‘deep-habit’ formation into a New Keynesian small open economy model, this paper provides a theoretical framework which is able to attest for the new empirical evidence. Deep habits give rise to counter-cyclical firm markups, which are crucial to generate effects of openness on the fiscal multiplier as found in the data. We study three dimensions of economic openness: exchange rate flexibility, trade openness, and capital mobility. In line with the empirical findings, we report a negative relationship between measures of economic openness and the fiscal multiplier.     

Whither Keynesian probability? Impolite techniques for decision-making

The critical literature on Keynes has provided extensive analysis of why individual agents may find convenient to adopt a “conventional judgement”, and what he meant by “polite techniques” used to save their faces as “rational, economic men.” This paper concentrates instead on impolite techniques of thought suited to deal with Keynesian uncertainty. The paper suggests that the thread going from Keynes's Treatise on Probability to the General Theory and its defence provides a positive analysis of decision-making under uncertainty, and that placing emphasis on this positive analysis simply means adhering to Keynes's long-standing commitment to a (surely peculiar) probabilistic set-up.     

Bringing Social Structure Back into Economics: On Critical Realism and Hayek's Scientism Essay

This paper offers a critique of the critical realist (CR) interpretation of Friedrich Hayek's famous essay Scientism and the Study of Society presented in Tony Lawson's recent Economics and Reality. It is argued, contrary to Lawson's reading, that Hayek's social structures (1) do have an existence over and above the conceptions of the individual actors and (2) serve as a precondition for human action on the lines proposed by CR. Some links are made between Hayek's essay and the theory of social reality recently proposed by John Searle, and some comparisons drawn with CR.     

A critique of the microfoundations of macroeconomic policy models

The contemporary economic debate is focused mainly on the causes and cures of stagflation. There are three major macroeconomic parties to this debate: Incentivists (supply siders), Keynesians, and Monetarists. Each of these schools prepares policy forecasts promoting the merits of its particular remedies for countering stagflation. Though the models driving these forecasts are different in terms of the determinants they emphasize and the economic casuality they invoke, all are predicated on the same set of microeconomic assumptions: those organized under the neoclassical theory of the firm. The fact that the Incentivist, Keynesian, and Monetarist models all share the same microfoundation pretty much eliminates the firm and its properties from the arena of argument. From the standpoint to be developed in this article, this omission is unfortunate, as contemporary enterprises bear increasingly little resemblance to their neoclassical predecessors. The disparities are particularly important in two respects. First, increases in organizational size and complexity mark modern firms as increasingly susceptible to certain inefficiencies that ultimately affect aggregate economic performance adversely. But the mainstream macroeconomic models do not comprehend microeconomic stimuli to stagflation and therefore cannot presume to control them. The result is perhaps a consistent understatement of the reparative task the Incentivists, Keynesians, and Monetarists are promoting for themselves. Second, modern firms entail a potential for autonomous activities that is a priori denied neoclassical enterprises. Increases in autonomy imply some unresponsiveness to exogenous controls of the type the mainstream schools propose to employ as means of restoring economic integrity. To this extent, their policy models may be uniformly overstating the effect their instruments can enjoy in the present economic context. When the likelihood of underestimating the magnitude of the stagflationary problem is coupled with the probable overestimation of interventionist capabilities, the policy forecasts of the Incentivist, Keynesian, and Monetarist schools may be suspected of a degree of optimism entirely unwarranted by current microeconomic realities.