Poverty Dynamics,Violent Conflict,and Convergence in Rwanda

This paper analyzes the poverty impact of the violent events that affected Rwanda in the 1990s. The main objective of the paper is to identify systematically potential mechanisms linking violent conflict with changes in poverty across provinces and households in Rwanda before and after a decade of violence. In accordance with emerging literature on the long‐term economic effects of violent conflict, we find empirical evidence for economic convergence between richer and poorer Rwandan provinces and households following the conflict shocks. Using a small but unique panel of households surveyed before and after the conflict period, we find that households whose house was destroyed or who lost land ran a higher risk of falling into poverty. We do not find much evidence for an economic effect of violent deaths at the household level due to substitution effects of labor within the household. Non‐violent deaths however seem to increase income per adult equivalent for the survivors. Results are shown to be robust to sample selection and IV models.     

Violent conflict and online segregation: An analysis of social network communication across Ukraine's regions

Does the intensity of a social conflict affect political division? Traditionally, social cleavages are seen as the underlying cause of political conflicts. It is clear, however, that a violent conflict itself can shape partisan, social, and national identities. In this paper, we ask whether social conflicts unite or divide the society by studying the effects of Ukraine's military conflict with Russia on online social ties between Ukrainian provinces (oblasts). In order to do that, we collected original data on the cross-regional structure of politically relevant online communication among users of VKontakte social networking site. We analyze the panel of provinces spanning the most active phases of domestic protests and military conflict and isolate the effects of province-specific war casualties on the nature of inter-provincial online communication. The results show that war casualties entice strong emotional response in the corresponding provinces, but do not necessarily increase the level of social cohesion in inter-provincial online communication. We find that the intensity of military conflict entices online activism, but activates regional rather than nation-wide network connections. We also find that military conflict tends to polarize some regions of Ukraine, especially in the East. Our research brings attention to the underexplored areas in the study of civil conflict and political identities by documenting the ways the former may affect the latter.     

Economic Backwardness and Social Tension*

We propose that relative economic backwardness contributes to the build‐up of social tension and non‐violent and violent conflict. We test our hypothesis using data on organized mass movements and armed civil conflict. The findings show that greater economic backwardness is consistently linked to a higher probability of onset of violent and especially non‐violent forms of civil unrest. We provide evidence that the relationship is causal in instrumental variables estimations using new instruments, including mailing speeds and telegram charges around 1900. The magnitude of the effect of backwardness on social tension increases in the two‐stage least‐squares estimations.     

Introduction - Children and Family Policy: a Feminist Issue

Policy makers increasingly rely on theories of social capital to fashion development interventions that mobilize local social networks in the alleviation of poverty. The potential of such theory lies in its recognition of the social dimensions of economic growth. This recognition has inspired some innovative approaches to development, such as the now-popular microfinance model. In assessing the implications of these recent developments for feminist objectives of social transformation, this paper evaluates prevailing ideas about social capital (rooted in rational choice theory) against the grain of three alternative approaches: Marxian social capital theories ( À la Pierre Bourdieu), neo-Foucauldian governmentality studies, and my feminist ethnographic research on the social embeddedness of economic practice in a merchant community of Nepal. The paper concludes by bringing these critical insights to bear on possibilities for designing microfinance programs - and practicing a kind of development more generally - that could engage women's solidarity to challenge dominant gender ideologies.     

Civil Conflict,Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture

In this paper, we provide an empirical investigation of the interaction between violent conflicts, democratization, and growth in the “third wave” of democratization. The effect of democratization is weakened when taking into account the incidence of civil conflict. The results show that the growth effect of democratization is heterogeneous and depends on the democratization scenario. Peaceful transitions to democracy have a significant positive effect on growth that is even larger than reported previously in the literature, whereas violent transitions have no, or even negative, growth effects.     

高校科研团队冲突、行为整合与绩效的关系

高校创新型科研团队冲突划分为关系冲突、任务冲突和过程冲突三个维度;高校创新型科研团队行为整合也包括联合决策、开放沟通和团队合作三个维度。目前对高校科研团队的研究集中于团队冲突对团队绩效的直接影响,忽视了对团队冲突与团队绩效之间的中介变量进行深入探讨。本文在理论分析的基础上提出了高校创新型科研团队行为整合对团队冲突与团队绩效关系的中介作用假设,采用问卷调查的方式收集数据,运用统计方法对假设进行了实证检验。一方面在一定程度上丰富了团队冲突直接作用于团队绩效的研究;另一方面也对建设高校科研团队提供了一些有参考价值的意见。研究结果显示：联合决策、开放沟通和团队合作在关系冲突与团队绩效之间具有完全的中介作用、在任务冲突与团队绩效之间具有部分的中介作用,在过程冲突与团队绩效之间不具有中介作用。     

微型金融机构双重目标的冲突与治理:研究进展述评

微型金融机构要同时实现财务可持续(财务目标)与减缓贫困(社会目标)两大目标,然而,这两个目标间的冲突问题却长期困扰着其发展。本文系统整理了国内外有关微型金融机构双重目标冲突与治理领域的理论与实证文献,研究发现对微型金融机构双重目标是否冲突在理论和实证研究中均存在争议。伴随着微型金融商业化,目标偏离已成为双重目标冲突的新表现,但通过实施社会绩效管理,微型金融机构可以有效地降低双重目标间的冲突。虽然我国农村金融机构双重目标冲突问题已经显现,但相关研究并不多。因此,我国未来的研究应该集中在界定农村金融机构双重目标含义、构建评估体系、制定报告标准、探索双重目标约束下的可持续发展机制等方面。     

DO INSTITUTIONS MITIGATE THE RISK OF NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS?

The resource curse, as manifested by an increased likelihood of conflict over rents, can be mitigated by institutions. Lei and Michaels find that discoveries of “giant” oil fields increase the likelihood of violent conflict, but they find no evidence that democratic institutions mitigate this risk. We test whether institutions mitigate the resource curse by reducing the risk of natural resource conflicts. Our results indicate that high quality economic institutions reduce the likelihood of territorial (separatist) conflicts following natural resource rent windfalls. Highly autocratic and highly democratic institutions also reduce the likelihood of territorial conflict after natural resource rent windfalls. (JEL Q34, O13, P48, D74)     

Violence and economic activity: evidence from African American patents, 1870–1940

Recent studies have examined the effect of political conflict and domestic terrorism on economic and political outcomes. This paper uses the rise in mass violence between 1870 and 1940 as an historical experiment for determining the impact of ethnic and political violence on economic activity, namely patenting. I find that violent acts account for more than 1,100 missing patents compared to 726 actual patents among African American inventors over this period. Valuable patents decline in response to major riots and segregation laws. Absence of the rule of law covaries with declines in patent productivity for white and black inventors, but this decline is significant only for African American inventors. Patenting responds positively to declines in violence. These findings imply that ethnic and political conflict may affect the level, direction, and quality of invention and economic growth over time.     

论经济关系和谐与构建和谐社会

社会和谐是中国特色社会主义的本质属性。人类社会是在矛盾运动当中发展和进步的,构建社会主义和谐社会是一个不断化解社会矛盾的过程。基于社会生产力与生产关系的矛盾、经济基础与上层建筑的矛盾推动社会发展的基本原理,任何社会变革都具有深刻的经济背景。人在本质上是社会关系的总和。社会关系和谐是和谐社会的起码要求和应有之义。社会主义市场经济背景下,以社会生产关系为核心和基础的经济关系和谐,无疑是社会关系和谐的最关键环节。促进经济关系和谐,因此就成为构建和谐社会的内在要求。我国目前的经济关系还存在诸多不和谐因素。从经济建设的实际出发,结合构建和谐社会的目标和任务,以人为本,科学发展,就成为促进我国经济关系和谐的基本思路。     

Violent conflict and economic growth: Some time-series evidence

This paper uses time-series methods to examine interrelationships between growth and violent conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results show bidirectional causalities, but the key determinant of conflict risk is prior conflict experience, not fluctuations in economic growth.     

Do microfinance institutions fulfil their promise? Evidence from cross-country data

The concept of microfinance promises poverty reduction and economic growth. We empirically challenge this economic and social promise in an attempt to prove its fulfilment. Our multivariate regressions of economic development variables such as per capita gross national income based on PPP converted to international dollars (GNI per capita PPP), GDP growth, as well as gross capital formation and labour participation rate against specific microfinance institutions’ (MFI) variables show that the success and performance of MFIs significantly influence economic development. Microfinance directly influences economic growth through the value that MFI performance adds to purchasing power. An indirect impact comes from an improvement in capital accumulation and employment rates. These insights are valuable as the interdependencies between microfinance and economic development that this article verifies offer new and progressive insights into purposeful action that can be taken to stimulate economic development and growth. Targeted development programmes as well as socially responsible investments can be applied in developing economies in order to strengthen their growth and alleviate poverty.     

大城市边缘区城乡多维空间冲突特征与形成机制——以韶关市转溪村为例

大城市边缘区作为城乡功能过渡与要素交汇区,经济社会持续演变,空间冲突日趋激烈,生态文明与城乡共同繁荣语境下加强空间冲突与协调研究具有重要意义。选取典型案例韶关市转溪村,主要采用2008与2018年土地利用数据、2018年问卷调研数据和环境抽样检测数据,从用地空间、经济社会与生态环境等维度,解析大城市边缘区城乡空间冲突特征及成因机制,提出城乡统筹与空间协调发展路径。研究表明:(1)研究区用地变化与冲突明显,城镇用地快速增长,侵占优质区位,农村用地空间明显缩减,生态位不断缩窄。2018年村域建设用地中城镇用地占比高达60.79%。(2)城乡经济差距与冲突显著,外来企业带动作用小,村庄经济发展滞后,城乡收入和公共服务差距大。转溪村人均收入仅为曲江区农村平均水平的50.94%,村民对公共服务满意度低。(3)城市工业等企业嵌入,导致不同程度的大气污染、噪声污染和水污染,61.37%的受访村民认为外来企业破坏环境或干扰生活。(4)城乡空间冲突是多维冲突的交织复合体,主要受城乡地域功能分工、乡村多元价值认知、空间组织与统筹治理、城乡协同发展制度供给等因素影响。(5)应基于生态文明进行功能协调,促进城乡等值发展。基于城乡统筹开展空间重构,优化三生空间治理。基于共同繁荣建立协同机制,保障乡村发展权益。     

旅游减贫具有空间溢出效应吗?

针对现有文献缺乏旅游减贫多维效果及空间效应研究,本文基于多维贫困视角,运用2008—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建了包含经济、教育、医疗、生活与环境五个维度的贫困减缓评价指标体系,并在地理距离矩阵和经济距离矩阵共同构成的综合嵌套矩阵的基础上,分别运用空间自相关检验、空间杜宾模型探究了各维度贫困减缓的空间分布特征及旅游发展对各维度贫困减缓的空间效应。主要结论有:(1)十年间,中国乡村旅游业发展水平呈现显著空间正向相关性,纳入空间效应的空间杜宾模型较好地揭示出区域间乡村旅游发展存在显著的空间溢出效应。(2)十年间,各维度的减贫效果亦呈现显著空间正向相关性,表明各维度减贫效果存在着空间集聚特征。(3)十年间,旅游发展对经济、生活、环境等维度的贫困均具有显著减缓作用,更重要的发现是旅游发展在这三个减贫维度上具有正向空间溢出效应。旅游发展对教育、医疗两个维度上贫困减缓的直接和间接效应均未通过显著性检验。(4)从空间异质性视角分析,旅游发展对经济减贫维度的空间溢出效应呈现出东部区域→中部区域→西部区域逐步递减规律;旅游发展对生活减贫维度和环境减贫维度的空间溢出效应均呈现出由东部区域→中部区域→西部区域逐渐增大特征。最后,论文就旅游减贫提出了相关政策建议。     

Technological Innovation and High-Quality Economic Development

Linking technological innovation with high-quality economic development is a complex process. So far, there has been little academic research on the mechanism and internal law of technological innovation related to high quality economic development. After streamlining the research context of technological innovation in the deductive development of economic growth theory, this paper summarizes and extracts the core connotation of high-quality economic development from the concept of high-quality development and at micro, meso and macro dimensions. The internal law of technological innovation promoting high-quality economic development is revealed from six aspects, including total factor productivity, supply of high-quality products and services, industrial structure upgrading, consumption structure upgrading, resources and environment, and promoting social equity. This paper then puts forward policy recommendations for technological innovation promoting high-quality economic development at micro, meso and macro dimensions. Microscopically, organizations including R&D enterprises, universities and research institutes should have their creativity enhanced; mesoscopically, the levels of industrial chain, value chain and regional technological innovation growth pole should be improved; and macroscopically, China should raise its overall technology competitiveness in the world for high-quality economic development driven by technological innovation. This paper proposes six issues on technological innovation related to high-quality development that deserve in-depth discussion, including identifying the standards and boundaries of innovation, capturing the orientation of technological innovation, and raising the rate of transforming technological innovation achievements, etc.     

“Business and Government” Then and Now

Socio-environmental conflicts are widespread, and global economic growth will likely increase them in the coming decades. While political ecology, the analysis of common pool resources, and ecological economics, among others, have provided praiseworthy insights into such conflicts, institutional approaches to these phenomena are still scarce. Classical institutional economics has occasionally been put to work on environmental issues, but proposed frameworks remain relatively underdeveloped. We wish to contribute to institutional research on environmental issues by building upon Bruno Théret’s interpretation of John R. Commons’s transactional model and applying the framework to a case of socio-environmental conflicts. First, we briefly sketch the landscape of institutional contributions (especially those that follow the classical institutionalist tradition) to the analysis of environmental issues. We explain why Commons has largely been ignored on these issues. Then, we analyze some of the key concepts of Commonsian economics that are of particular interest to our theoretical elaboration. Following this, we depict Commons’s transactional scheme and propose an application to a case of socioenvironmental mining conflict in Peru. Our framework could complement existing ones and shed light on the institutional dynamics of natural-resource management through conflict.     

论我国石油天然气矿权权利冲突及解决机制

矿权是石油天然气经济活动中最基本的权利,我国石油天然气的经济活动中存在着许多的权利冲突问题,矿权冲突是比较多元化的,但其实质而言是权限冲突与利益冲突的交错,并通过各种形式表现出来。加强对石油天然气矿权权利冲突及解决机制的研究,有利于进一步规范我国石油天然气经济活动,促进石油天然气行业健康和谐发展。     

ON THE CONFLICT–POVERTY NEXUS

We develop a model to explore the inter-relationships between conflict and economic activity. We construct a simple two-period model where consumption and investment decisions are made in the presence of governments who consider initiating diversionary conflict to raise their chances of remaining in power. Economies with selfish leaders and lower gains from capital formation may fall prey to engaging in avoidable conflicts thereby lowering investment and hence future growth. Using panel data for over 152 countries from 1950 to 2000, we find evidence for conflict lowering economic growth and, after conditioning on the initial conditions of geography, private, public, and human capital investment, lower growth raising the likelihood of conflict. These results are broadly consistent with our model.     

Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses

This article argues that domestic social conflicts are a key to understanding why growth rates lack persistence and why so many countries have experienced a growth collapse since the mid-1970s. It emphasizes, in particular, the manner in which social conflicts interact with external shock on the one hand, and the domestic institutions of conflict-management on the other. Econometric evidence provides support for this hypothesis. Countries that experienced the sharpest drops in growth after 1975 were those with divided societies (as measured by indicators of inequality, ethnic fragmentation, and the like) and with weak institutions of conflict management (proxied by indicators of the quality of governmental institutions, rule of law, democratic rights, and social safety nets).