中国农业生产组织:生存、演进及发展

本文从分工，专业化的角度论述了农业生产组织的选择，农业生产组织的演进形式取决于政府目标及其采取的相应宏观政策，价格自由，择业自由是竞争性市场环境的前提，如果政府既控制农产品价格，又严格限制择业，为实现重工业优先发展目标，人民公社体制就是政府强制推行的制度安排，如果政府控制价格，松动择业，就会赞成工业品生产过剩，农产品供给不足；如果政府放开价格，控制择业，就会人为制造行业垄断，保证少数人利益，如果政府放开价格，择业限制松动，家庭联产承包制的选择就成为政府推广的诱致性制度变迁，如果价格，择业充分自由，家庭农场可能是未来农业生产组织的重要形式。     

The Dynamics of the Institutional Change and the Market Economy: Understanding Contemporaneous Market Development Processes

The Austrian theory of institutions shows the particularity of being tied into a market process analysis. If such a specificity gave rise to a great number of analytical as well as methodological or epistemological contributions, its empirical dimension has been neglected to the benefit of the so-called Institutional works. The aim of my contribution is to come back to this untapped potential in order to exhibit the operational nature of Austrian analyses of institutions, particularly those of Lachmann. The objective here is to establish, through an appropriate temporal articulation of different institutions, the conditions for a harmonious development of market processes. I particularly show the great benefit of such a framework in order to, on one side, offer some explanations of the recent financial crisis faced by the emerging economies, and on the other side, to understand the specificity as well as the coherence of the Chinese economic transition.     

市场、组织与二元经济的起源

劳动分工可分为社会分工和组织内部分工。市场和组织是协调劳动分工的两种最基本的实现形式,也是劳动分工赖以存在和演化的制度基础。分工组织可以通过市场交易实现社会分工与组织内部分工的有效对接。二元经济产生的根本原因在于分工组织及其演进路径的差异。     

保险市场竞争程度与市场结构的关系研究

本文运用H统计量研究我国财寿险市场的竞争程度,并进一步通过回归分析与相关分析研究竞争程度与市场结构的交互影响因素.研究结果表明,1999-2006年间我国的财险市场可以判断为垄断竞争的市场结构,而同期我国寿险市场则属于寡头垄断的市场结构.2003年保险业费率市场化的改革对财险和寿险都有明显的影响,直接加剧了竞争程度.竞争度与财险市场公司数量正相关,与寿险市场公司数量负相关.竞争度与集中度的关系在财险业为负相关,而在寿险业根据采用不同的集中度指标的不同考察结果会有所不同.     

The Catching-up of Japanese with German Industries: Production Organization, Infrastructure, and R&D

This paper presents an empirical productivity comparison between Japan and Germany, focusing on organization, R&D and infrastructure. Time-series datasets from the auto vehicle and electronic engineering industries are used to demonstrate the reversal in productivity advantage from Germany to Japan at around 1980. It is argued that Japanese productivity gains arose from a better infrastructure and from cost-reducing innovations such as lean production methods. An econometric model determines the causes for the observed differences in the quantities of inputs used. It shows that frequent external procurement in Japanese manufacturing has shifted the factor inputs from labor and capital to materials, a result in line with the philosophy of lean production.     

劳动力规模、组织成本与农业生产合作组织演变——基于民国以来的历史分析

中国农业生产合作组织的演变具有显著的周期性特征和地域性差异,但是已有研究只是选择性地关注短期内农业生产合作组织的效率问题及其影响下的去集体化过程,或者只是简单地强调国家强制性制度安排下的合作化过程。本文认为,不同社会经济条件下的劳动监督成本和协调成本差异决定组织成本差异,组织成本差异决定各种农业经济组织的相对效率结构,因而决定农业经济组织的周期性演变及其多样化特征。进一步的研究表明:战争、气候灾难等消极性因素和人口死亡率下降、人口寿命延长等积极性因素是劳动力规模及其劳动监督成本波动的诱因,因而是农业经济组织长期性演变的终极决定因素。利用1911-2011年中国省级、县级的各类人口和合作社数据,本文从宏观层面初步验证了这种观点。     

多维邻近视角下长江经济带区域金融空间联系特征及其影响机制

研究运用引力模型、网络分析、聚类分析、空间自相关分析和经济重心模型等方法剖析了长江经济带区域金融空间联系网络特征以及联系总量格局,并在多维邻近视角下采用空间杜宾模型探究了区域金融能力与金融网络规模的影响机制,研究发现:①"多核心"的金融空间联系网络格局较为稳定,网络复杂度持续升级,呈现"东密西疏"的空间分布特征,且在空间上形成三大层级性明显的金融辐射圈;②金融空间联系格局展现出"核心—边缘"的发展形态,空间集聚特征明显,发展重心在演进过程中呈现反"Z"形变化特征;③金融空间联系能通过信息技术发展打破传统地理空间距离壁垒,具有明显的多维邻近效应,其中城市经济规模、工业基础能力、产业升级导向和城市创新能力是区域金融能力与金融网络格局形成的主要影响因素,而政府供给导向因素具有较强的空间溢出效应,区域间的政府竞合行为有利于金融要素的流转与联系。     

Crusoe,Friday and the Raced Market Frame of Orthodox Economics Textbooks

ABSTRACT

‘Crusoe’ and ‘Friday’ signifiers necessarily evoke a world of racialised hierarchies. Economics textbooks are perhaps the sole remaining medium to simply wish away their resulting relations of power. These are the teaching aids that inspire students analytically to think of markets as pristine economic institutions and persuade them politically that they should want to will such institutions into being. Yet they all-too-often rely on the pedagogical device of the so-called Robinson Crusoe Economy, where the main characters from Defoe’s most famous novel are required to instinctively recognise their equality within voluntary contracting agreements so that each can act as the neoclassical homo economicus. In other words, economists’ Crusoe and Friday figures must behave antithetically to what has historically been implied by the ‘Crusoe’ and ‘Friday’ signifiers. But how can this be so, given how commonplace it was when Defoe’s characters were first introduced into economic theory in the 1850s to justify white settler colonialism on the grounds that ‘savage’ societies lacked the capacity to be self-governing? The raced market frame that emerged in practice from this assumption continues to be reproduced uncritically today by Crusoe’s and Friday’s presence in the textbook explanation of the most basic model of market exchange.     

治理理论综述——以法律、组织和市场为视角

公司治理研究和解决的问题是如何使资金的提供者按时收回投资并获得合理的回报,其研究视角不仅在于现代的公司组织,还包括了市场和法律体系。本文从法律、组织和市场的角度,对公司治理的相关文献进行回顾。     

The importance of fear: investor sentiment and stock market returns

The presence of investor sentiment pushes asset prices away from the equilibrium level justified by underlying fundamentals. While sentiment is not directly observable, identifying appropriate proxies and, quantifying the impact of sentiment on asset prices is an important topic. Asset prices that do not appropriately reflect fundamental values may result in inefficient allocation of capital – impacting portfolio allocation decisions and the cost of capital. Utilizing a number of sentiment proxies, over the period 1990–2015, we demonstrate a strong relationship between investor sentiment and stock returns that is consistent with theoretical explanations of sentiment. We determine that implied volatility index (VIX) is the preferred measure of sentiment in terms of improving model fit and adding explanatory power. Causality tests suggest that investor fear (VIX) drives returns across firm-size and value, and also across industry. We also illustrate that firms that are more subjective to value, or face limits to arbitrage, such as small-cap stocks, or those in the business equipment (technology) or telecoms industry, are most responsive to changes investor sentiment. Finally, we demonstrate that sentiment has a greater influence on market returns during recession, when sentiment is at its lowest ebb, and this is particularly true for those stocks most susceptible to speculative demand.     

美国次级房货危机对中国房货和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

Average-cost Pricing, Increasing Returns, and Optimal Output: Comparing Home and Market Production

We employ a model with both market production and home production to show that, ignoring administrative costs and indirect effects (such as rent-seeking), even if both the home and the market sectors have the condition of increasing returns and there are no pre-existing taxes, it is still efficient to tax the home sector to finance a subsidy on the market sector to offset the under-production of the latter due to the failure of price-taking consumers to take account of the effects of higher consumption in reducing the average costs and hence prices, through increasing returns or the publicness nature of fixed costs. Within market production, it is efficient to subsidise more the sector with a higher fixed cost, a lower elasticity of substitution between goods (higher value of diversity), and a lower degree of importance in preference, which all increase the degree of increasing returns.     

美国次级房贷危机对中国房贷和金融市场的影响

美国次级房贷危机已对全球股市和美国经济产生较大影响。分析美国次级房贷危机产生的背景和原因,并指出中国的抵押贷款市场存在的重大风险。我们应该以美国次级债危机为借鉴,为中国房地产市场发展和金融市场的健康发展获得一些启示,并做好风险防范措施。     

Public-Choice Analysis of a New International Organization: The International Sea-Bed Authority

The usefulness of the public-choice approach for a better understanding of international organizations can be demonstrated by applying it to the analysis of the structure and functions of a new international organization, the International Sea-Bed Authority, established in 1994, after two decades of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations, with the aim to control the oceans' mineral resources beyond the limits of national jurisdictions (which have been proclaimed by the U.N. Assembly common heritage of mankind). First, the reasons for establishing this organization, whose basis is the common heritage of mankind nature of ocean resources, are examined under two aspects: 1) definition and protection of property rights; 2) environmental control of sea-bed mining activities. Secondly, the organization's decisionmaking system is presented, including such features as the assembly, council with chamber voting, finance committee with decision by consensus, features that balance the voting power of members and protect those countries that bear the financial responsibility for the budget. Finally, some comments are offered about more general aspects of the theory of international organizations: the bureaucracy (and diplomacy) of these organizations as well as the interdependence among international organizations, which opens the way to forms of international logrolling and makes it advisable for countries not to exit from these organizations, even when they have no primary interest in them.     

产业集群的组织分析逻辑:组织本质、效率与边界

本文以组织的生产特质与交易特质为研究起点,试图形成产业集群的组织分析逻辑.研究发现,产业集群兼有市场组织的交易特质和企业科层的生产特质,是一种中间性组织;作为中间性组织,产业集群具有独特的分工效率;同时,产业集群的组织效率是有条件的,其依赖于集群组织的交易特质与生产特质的边际比较,在市场优选机制下.产业集群组织存在着与企业组织和纯粹市场组织接壤的效率边界.     

Technology,Work Restructuring and the Orchestration of a Rational Narrative in the Pursuit of 'Management Objectives': The Political Process of Plant-level Change

In this article a narrative approach is used in the construction of a story about the political aspects of plant-level change. It is shown how different individuals may recount and reconstruct stories which reflect their own interests and how the maintenance of common organizational stories often reflects the influence and political action of certain powerful actors and groups. These dominant narrators are often actively involved in a political process by which a rational narrative is constructed, revised and modified over time and sustained within the context of other competing voices and views. In examining the uptake of cellular manufacturing, technology is not conceptualized as a determinant of outcomes but as a substance of the workplace initiative which is continually open to influence (the mutual shaping of the 'social' and 'technical') during the political process of change. Finally, a broad conceptualization of political process is adopted in order to enable the reader to critically reflect on the data in pursuing their own analysis and conclusions.     

Public Debt,Terms of Trade and Welfare: The Role of Capital Production Shares,External Balances,and Dynamic (In)efficiency

In view of still large external imbalances across the world economy and dramatically risen public debts in major advanced economies, this paper reconsiders the relationship between public debt, the terms of trade and welfare in a two-good, two-country overlapping generations model with technological differences across countries. We find that the terms of trade effect of a public debt shock depends only on international differences in capital production shares and the dynamic (in)efficiency of the world economy. As in a model with similar capital production shares, domestic welfare rises and foreign welfare decreases when Home has a positive external balance and the Golden Rule holds. Under dynamic efficiency, welfare decreases in the debt-expanding, net foreign creditor country if she has a relatively smaller capital production share, and if the welfare effect through the accumulation channel is negative. In contrast, under dynamic inefficiency she can increase her welfare by debt expansion.     

金融市场的复杂性与金融风险管理——一个基于非线性动力学视角的分析原理

迄今为止,对金融市场的研究与分析基本上是在经典资本市场理论的线性分析范式下展开的.然而,经典资本市场理论的线性化分析方法有其内在的局限性,它不能解释现实金融市场资产价格的变化,更不能用来分析美国股市"1987年股灾"等市场突变行为.在这样的背景下,金融市场的研究出现了从线性转向非线性分析,从均衡走向演化的新趋势.本文在考察金融系统的非线性本质与作为虚拟经济系统的内在特性的基础上,提出了金融市场的非线性动力学分析原理,并形成了风险管理的整体观、内生观与过程观.这些原理将为研究金融市场与风险管理理论提供新的方向.     

烟草产业规制——基于需求面的分析框架

烟草是对健康有害的嗜好品,它有特殊的市场形态,其价格弹性和收入弹性都不同于普通产品.对这类产业的规制也不同于普通产业,其规制目标是产业促退而不是产业促进.中国的烟草产品又有区别于发达国家和其他发展中国家的独特市场形态,规制政策选择既要考虑国际通例,也要结合中国的市场特性.烟草产业规制要在规制效率、规制成本和社会公正之间寻求平衡.