盈余管理研究评述

盈余管理是会计理论研究的一个重要课题．有关该课题的研究从20世纪80年代中后期开始．至今方兴未艾。本文从盈余管理的定义、计量方法、动机与证据及市场反应等4个方面对盈余管理的研究进行了回顾．并在梳理盈余管理研究的发展脉络的基础上．探求盈余管理未来的研究方     

盈余质量在经验研究中的度量方法

盈余质量的评价由单一方面的衡量发展到综合衡量,如何在经验研究中选定恰当的盈余质量度量方法,对于研究结果的有用性起着重要的作用.本文将经验研究中所采用的盈余质量度量方法归纳为市场评价法、应计项目评价法、线下项目评价法、综合度量方法等四类方法.对各类方法进行了分析和评价,以期对进行盈余质量相关的经验研究有所启示.     

盈余管理程度的估计模型与经验证据:一个综述

盈余管理是一个与投资者保护和会计准则制定紧密相关的重要问题,它已经成为会计乃至金融、经济领域的重要研究课题。要研究在经济上具有意义的盈余管理,其前提是估计盈余管理的程度。本文对盈余管理程度的估计方法及其相应的经验证据进行评述,文献评述结果表明,非预期应计利润模型能够估计出单个公司的盈余管理程度,但它无法估计经济上具有意义的盈余管理程度;盈余分布法是目前估计盈余管理程度的核心方法,它能够估计出整体上的盈余管理程度,但它假设真实盈余分布是光滑的。盈余管理程度估计的未来研究,需要剔除盈余指标选择以及标准化方法选择等因素的影响,解决在同时存在多个阈值情况下不同阈值之间相互关联的影响问题,并放宽模型的假设或者给假设提供直接的证据。     

Earnings Mobility during the Transition: The Case of Hungary

This paper tests the hypothesis that the economic transition if associated with earnings mobility that is higher than in mature market economies, and which offsets the increase in earnings inequality. It uses the Hungarian Household Panel Survey for the period 1992-1997. The paper finds that indeed five-year earnings mobility in Hungary in the early years of the transition was significantly higher than in OECD countries. However, there are sings that the mobility rate has begun to decline. The pattern of earnings mobility had a significant equalizing effect: low earners were raised up while high earners were leveled down. However, mobility was taking place against a backdrop of the fall in real wages and therefore in most cases it implied the worsening of the absolute earnings status. Unfortunately, mobility does not help much low-paid workers. In contrast to most OECD countries, in Hungary low-paid workers have little chances to move up the earnings ladder. Low-paid jobs tend to be a permanent trap rather than a stepping stone to better paid employment.     

Immigrant earnings differentials in Canada: A more general specification of age and experience effects

This paper investigates empirically the role of age and arrival cohort effects on immigrant earnings differentials. The dataset used consists of a sample of 5,069 adult Canadian male employees from the 1973 Job Mobility Survey, a non-census dataset that provides information on actual work experience, language attributes, and numerous parental family background characteristics. It thus allows a more general specification of foreign-born/native-born earnings differentials, particularly the effects of age, work experience and years since immigration. The results confirm the importance of cross-sectional age cohort effects and refine previous findings on arrival cohort effects. Sample selectivity bias is investigated and found to be significant only when respondent's occupation is not controlled for. Adjustment for sample selection bias leaves essentially unchanged the main findings.For their helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper presented at a Labour Economics Conference at The University of Western Ontario, the authors would like to thank Martin Dooley, John Vanderkamp, Hank Farber, David Card and John Abowd. The authors also gratefully acknowledge the useful comments offered by members of the Labor Economics/Institute for Research on Poverty Workshop at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an anonymous referee. The authors, of course, retain full responsibility for all remaining errors and shortcomings. The first version of this paper was written while the second author was visiting the Industrial Relations Section at Princeton University and the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.     

Earnings mobility in Spain: the role of job mobility and contractual arrangements

This paper analyses the relationship between earnings mobility, job mobility and changes in the contractual arrangement in Spain using a sample of Spanish workers aged 16–60 years extracted from the European Community Household Panel Survey (ECHP 1995–2001). Overall, earnings mobility remains mostly unchanged over time, although clear differences, both in terms of levels and trends, can be perceived among different types of workers. Results show that, in general, job mobility contributes to increase earnings mobility. Switching into permanent contract are associated with the highest probability of upgrading among those workers who remain with the same employer. In contrast, the highest risk of downgrading among stayers appears when changing from permanent to temporary. An analysis on low pay/no low pay transitions reveals that job mobility always increases the probability of moving from low pay to better-paid jobs among females. For males, in contrast, this occurs only when they were initially employed on a temporary basis. Furthermore, for females it is found that either switching into permanent contract while staying with the same employer, or changing employer while being employed on a permanent basis yield a higher chance of upgrading than staying with the same employer with a permanent contract.      

性别工资差异中的企业效应

现有对性别工资差异的研究大多是基于个人样本的分析而忽略了企业的作用。本文运用企业和工人匹配的调查数据研究性别工资差异中的企业效应。研究发现,在工资决定方程中加入企业效应后工人的教育回报显著下降,且在性别工资差异的分解中加入企业效应后禀赋效应和价格效应所占的比例也显著下降,企业在性别工资差异中有着非常重要的作用。进一步研究发现,企业的外部市场环境和内部制度特征是决定企业性别工资差异程度的重要因素,市场竞争激烈的企业、经常采用计件工资制的企业以及内部职工收入差距较大的企业性别工资差异较大,小规模企业和私有产权比重较大的企业也呈现较大的性别工资差异,但工人的谈判能力有缩小性别工资差异的作用。     

信任、制度环境与盈余信息含量——基于中国资本市场的经验研究

投资决策是一种信任决策,会计信息是投资决策的重要依据,良好的制度环境能够增进投资者对代理人提供的会计信息的信任,因此能够提高会计信息的投资有用性。本文主要研究投资者对代理人的信任水平对盈余信息含量的影响,并检验制度环境对盈余信息含量的影响路径。研究表明,投资者对代理人越信任,盈余信息含量越高;良好的制度环境能够提高盈余信息含量,但是这种影响是通过投资者对代理人的信任而间接实现的,当控制了信任水平之后,制度环境的影响随之消失。本文的研究有助于加深人们对制度环境如何影响会计信息有用性的理解。     

A prototype model of the foreign exchange market of Canada: Forecasting capital flows and exchange rates

A balance-of-payments structural model of the foreign exchange market of Canada, endogenizing capital flows, the spot and forward exchange rates and the entities of the monetary sector, is developed using quarterly data for 1971–81. The capital flows have been disaggregated into ten categories and the exchange rates of the Canadian dollar have been analysed against five major currencies. While the model does not adhere strictly to purchasing power or interest rate parity, it does recognize them and it also incorporates other economic fundamentals, expectations and risk. Government interventions, although generated endogenously, are quantified implicitly and globally. The model tracks the post-Bretton Woods in-sample experience and generates ex post predictions reasonably well.     

The Value Relevance of Earnings and Nonearnings Information in Regulated and Deregulated Markets: The Case of the Airline Industry

This paper examines the valuation effects of earnings and two nonearnings-based measurements (book values and operating cash flow) on security prices of airline companies under two different market structures: regulated and deregulated. The literature lacks empirical evidence in examining the relative importance of earnings and nonearnings accounting-based measurements in regulated and deregulated markets, especially in the airlines industry. We compare coefficient estimates of regressing stock prices on earnings, book value, and cash flow from operations of airline companies during regulated and deregulated times. A control sample of manufacturing companies is also used for supporting inferences from the airline sample’s findings. In a typical regulated market, using cost recovery plus an adequate rate of return on assets, security prices are highly aligned with nonearnings measurements such as the book value. In the airline industry, regulation took the form of guaranteed routes and subsidies to service rural areas, giving rise to a differential effect of both earnings and nonearnings measurements. Under deregulation, airline firms operate in highly competitive markets with large airline firms enjoying the benefits of economy of scale and service diversification. Thus, the asset capitalization (book value), cash flow, and operational efficiencies (earnings) would be major indicators in the market assessment of the firm’s future profitability and security price. This paper finds that nonearnings measures have higher explanatory power of security prices in regulated times for the airline firms. In deregulated times, although earnings have a stronger relationship with prices, nonearnings measures continued to influence stock price levels, reflecting airline specific economics.

资源大国的可持续经营——加拿大循环经济发展对中国的借鉴

加拿大是世界资源大国,并致力于成为清洁资源能源大国。其在资源和环境方面的可持’续经营值得学习借鉴．主要表现在以下几方面：资源利用和环境保护中权力和责任的相当匹配;尊重民意,建立广泛的利益相关方协调机制;在法律框架下,充分发挥排污权交易制度、生态补偿机制和废弃物回收押金制度等市场机制作用;消费者环保意识对生产者行为产生重大影响;促使跨国公司在资源利用和环境保护方面起引领作用;强烈的忧患意识和强大的科技投入共同促动了资源环境的可持续经营等。这启示我们,要善于将先进的科学理念及时转化为有效的政策工具,更好地促动资源环境工作的开展。当然,由于中国和加拿大所处经济发展阶段不同,在产业结构和人口城市化等方面的国情存在很大差异,在借鉴加拿大经验时,要注意结合中国国情。     

Earnings growth and the bull market of the 1990s: Is there a case for rational exuberance?

This paper examines whether permanent earnings growth, crucial to stock valuation, increased during the 1990s, as suggested by proponents of the new economy. Using S&P 500 earnings for the period of 1951–2000, we do not find strong evidence of either a one-time structural break or gradual change. However, the confidence interval on permanent earnings growth is wide enough to include an increase that is roughly consistent with the bull market of the late 1990s. Thus, we cannot reject a rational basis for that exuberance.     

新疆少数民族就业困难群体成因分析——基于结构方程模型的视角

增加少数民族就业困难人员就业是改善新疆少数民族民生的一条重要途径。本文运用结构方程模型（SEM）对少数民族就业困难群体形成的原因进行了分析。结果显示：减轻家庭负担、减少对社保机构的依赖可以改善少数民族就业困难的状况。因而,应通过加大少数民族农村富余劳动力转移力度、加强其自身语言技能水平以及强化职业教育、培育少数民族特色产业等途径帮助少数民族群众就业。     

Increased Earnings Inequality and Macroeconomic Performance: the case of Canada in the 1980s

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the increase in earnings inequality and the relationship to macroeconomic conditions, in Canada, during the 1980s. Regression results presented here indicate that a positive and uniform relationship between the unemployment rate and earnings inequality existed through the period 1981 to 1989. These results contrast with recent findings that the unemployment-inequality relationship weakened in the late 1980s in other liberal economies, such as the US and UK. The main policy implication is that stimulative macroeconomic policy remains a relevant policy instrument in Canada and, more generally, that institutions, such as the degree of unionization, and policies, such as minimum wages, may partially explain differences in the pattern of inequality among countries.     

基于海洋经济地理视角的中国与加拿大海洋经济对比

海洋经济地域系统是人海关系地域系统重要的研究内容,是海洋地理研究的核心。中国和加拿大两国均为世界海洋大国,有较长海岸线和广阔的海域,海洋及其资源在两国经济发展中有着十分重要的作用。首先,应用标准差、变差系数、集中化指数(基尼系数),分析了中、加两国的海洋资源状况、海洋产业及构成以及两国区域海洋经济的差异与特征。然后用主成分分析方法对两个囯家各个海区的海洋经济综合实力水平比较,并分析差异的形成原因。通过对比,了解中、加两国海洋经济形成差异的状况。     

Cost of stroke in Canada: a 1-year prospective study

Summary

The objective of this study was to estimate the 1-year cost of stroke for patients in Canada in 2004 and to determine the factors that contribute to this cost.

This work was based on a prospective follow-up study of all patients presenting with a stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) to the emergency room in a large teaching hospital over a 6-month prospective period. All healthcare, social services, patient and caregiver resource utilisation attributable to strokes or TIAs were included in the analysis. There were 365 patients who met the

inclusion criteria. The average 1-year cost of managing patients with TIA was the lowest at $17,769, followed by ischaemic strokes at $53,576 and haemorrhagic strokes at $56,573. Predictors for 1-year cost were: type of stroke; discharge severity of stroke; death; marital status; discharge destination; and the presence of diabetes and congestive heart failure.

Initial hospitalisation costs represented the majority of 1-year costs of stroke. However, caregiver expenses are significant at between 11% and 27% of the total are 1-year cost.     

民族村寨旅游旅游者研究综述

在国内外民族村寨旅游相关文献收集整理的基础上,对国内外民族村寨旅游者方面的研究成果进行了较为系统的综述。国外主要研究其心理特征及行为表达两个方面,国内侧重旅游者的需求预测、旅游者决策行为、旅游者满意度、旅游者感知度等的研究。文章结合我国民族村寨旅游发展情况,寻找未来研究方向,并提出自己的看法。     

Revisiting Occupational Crowding in the United States: A Preliminary Study

In her study of occupational segregation in the United States using the 1960 Census, Barbara R. Bergmann found black males with low levels of education more concentrated in low-skill service and laborer occupations than white males and virtually excluded from higher status occupations. Utilizing a crowding index which, similar to Bergmann's, controls for the education level of the worker, this paper presents an analysis of the employment patterns of black males and females in fifty-nine occupations in Wayne County (Detroit, Michigan) and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) in 1990. Within blue-collar and service employment, males are under-represented in the craft occupations and concentrated in low-skill operative, laborer, and service occupations. Females are under-represented in both craft and operative occupations and concentrated in low-skill service occupations. Within white-collar employment, both males and females are largely excluded from high-skill private sector managerial occupations. Black representation in public sector managerial and private sector professional occupations is better in Detroit than Pittsburgh. The decline in manufacturing employment in both counties has left black males with fewer occupational options and black females over-represented in low status clerical and service occupations.     

IPO公司经营业绩变动与股权结构研究

本文以1996年首次公开募股公司作为样本,分析在IPO当年及其后3年经营业绩的变化趋势和特点,以及与股权结构的关系。研究结果表明,IPO当年及其后3年的经营业绩呈现显著下降态势;流通股比例高低对IPO公司经营业绩变动趋势未产生重大影响,而不可流通股以中的国有股和社会法人股比例则有较大影响。     

An assessment of the impact of tax incentives relative to socio-economic characteristics on charitable giving in Canada

This research examines the effectiveness of the Canadian tax incentive system for charitable giving while attempting to deal with two persistent methodological problems in past research. The Heckman selection model and the ordered probit model are used to examine the Canadian tax incentive system with 2010 survey data. The results imply that the effect of the tax credit systematically increases with an increase in donation expenditure suggesting that the higher tax credit for larger donations is more effective than the lower tax credit for smaller donations. While the results suggest that the current tax policy is effective, socio-economic characteristics, such as wealth, household income, and university education, appear to have a greater impact on donations.