从国家货币到市场货币 --货币与国家关系的解读

本文以货币与国家的历史联系为线索，通过分析国家货币垄断状态下二者的相互作用，说明市场货币是货币与国家协调过程中为适应新环境出现的一种新现象，金融全球化并未从根本上改变国家货币主权。国家货币产生于与民族国家发展相关的历史过程，一旦发展成熟与完善，又反过来增强民族国家的政治特征。货币既产生于民族国家的政治经济诉求，又必将服务于此，这是历史与现实相互作用的结果。     

货币错配与银行危机和货币危机

货币错配是新兴市场在经济全球化过程中所无法避免的问题,它具有净外币负债和净外币资产两种表现形式.在新兴市场中,只要其银行体系存在大规模的货币错配,不管表现为哪一种形式,都会增加其金融体系的脆弱性;而且在宏观或微观经济基本面恶化的情况下,可能引发银行危机甚至是货币危机.此外,当出现不利冲击时,银行体系中存在货币错配将会导致其资产和负债的期限错配进一步恶化.     

Trade Union Activity and Post-War Inflation In Australia

This article was prepared by L. J. Perry, School of Economics, University of New South Wales. The author is especially grateful to Dr R. Horn, Professor J. Nevlle, Bill Rao and anonymous referees for their constructive criticisms. Other people who have helped in various ways are Ron Bewley, Judy Francis, Professor Kakwani, Kevin Forde, and Dr K. Rivett. None of these people necessarily agree with the contents and any errors are the responsibility of the author.     

Currency Crises and the Modified Currency Board System in Singapore

This paper argues that the currency board system, while ideal for developing countries, will need to be modified for the more advanced developing countries like Singapore. Serious conflicts between internal and external targets could be minimized if it is modified by allowing some flexibility in the exchange rate. Lessons from Singapore on controlling inflation and warding off currency attacks were drawn to support the argument.     

Trade Union Activity and Post-War Inflation In Australia

This article was prepared by L. J. Perry, School of Economics, University of New South Wales. The author is especially grateful to Dr R. Horn, Professor J. Nevile, Bill Rao and anonymous referees for their constructive criticisms. Other people who have helped in various ways are Ron Bewley, Judy Francis, Professor Kakwani, Kevin Forde, and Dr K. Rivett, None of these people necessarily agree with the contents and any errors are the responsibility of the author     

Currency Quandary: The Choice of Invoicing Currency under Exchange-Rate Uncertainty

Recent studies have derived optimal invoicing strategies for an exporting firm when exchange rates are uncertain. However, these studies fail to explain trade transacted in a third currency (vehicle currency). In this study, we extend existing models to include the possibility that trade occurs in a vehicle currency. We find that under conditions stipulated by existing models, vehicle-currency invoicing is not preferred. The presence of a competing exporter under imperfect competition, however, can induce vehicle-currency pricing. This is consistent with trade in many primary commodities dominated by few exporters with many importers but where commodities are not perfectly homogeneous.     

亚元:区域性货币合作制度新选择

欧元与美元“二元化”的国际货币体系,使中国在2003年获得9.1%的经济增长率,意大利仍然凭借欧元地位,以0.3%的经济增长速度使其世界排名从第七位超越中国再次跃居第六位,这使亚洲各国更加明确,加强本地区货币合作将改变目前亚洲在国际竞争中所处的不利境地。要使亚洲经济不再作为大国货币的附属品,必须改变现存不公平的国际货币制度,加强地区间金融协调与合作,创立一个稳定的亚洲统一货币才能稳定亚洲金融市场,促进亚洲经济健康发展。在当前形势下分析现存国际货币制度缺陷及现状,讨论亚洲货币合作标准及亚元制度建设进程显得十分重要。     

货币国际化与货币互换市场发展关系的实证分析

笔者研究了2000年10月～2011年3月美国货币互换市场的发展与美国货币国际化程度的关系,结果发现:货币互换市场价格变动的冲击短期内对国际金融市场中美元国际化带来的冲击是难以界定的,而从长期的角度来看,货币互换市场促进了国际金融市场中以美元计价的金融产品的推出,推进了美元国际化.美元的国际化在短期内会扩大美国国内货币互换市场规模,但是,从长期的角度而言,货币国际化的推进不会对货币互换市场带来任何影响.笔者认为中国需要优先发展人民币的货币互换市场,这样,可以有效地抵御海外金融市场的冲击,以达到人民币成为国际经济往来中储备货币的目的.     

An Intertemporal Currency Board

The paper shows that the traditional wisdom of raising interest rates to defend a currency enriches rather than punishes the speculators. Furthermore, using high interest rates as a currency defense tool often produces the opposite effect in times of crisis. A new approach is proposed of using Hong Kong dollar "put" options as an explicit commitment by the government. The put option itself acts like an intertemporal currency board in keeping the linked exchange rate over time. This costly signaling produces a separating equilibrium that distinguishes the strength of the Hong Kong dollar from the other Asian currencies that were under pressure in 1997.     

Solving the Currency Conundrum

This paper reviews the prospects for the exchange rate system in different parts of the world. It discounts radical changes like a single world currency and a trio of regional monetary unions: in Europe, where intergration is political as well as economic and financial, the euro should provide the basis for an expanding zone of monetary stability; in the Americas, in contrast, dollarization is likely to be the solution for countries with strong financial links to the USA that find it difficult to run an autonomous monetary policy; and in Asia, continued floating is the only plausible outcome, given the obstacles to the alternatives.
(J.E.L.: F3)     

Currency interdependence and dollarization

This paper constructs a search model of currency interdependence, and uses it to examine how in dollarized economies the foreign currency reacts to various shocks to the domestic currency. Currency interdependence is generated by allowing sellers to take into account their outside option of trading with the domestic currency while bargaining with buyers holding the foreign currency. The shocks consist in movements in the domestic interest rate, domestic inflation and the domestic currency’s market power. We show that if the purchasing power of the domestic currency is low, any shock that increases its value, such as a higher domestic interest rate, translates into a depreciation of the foreign currency. However, the result is opposite when the purchasing power of the domestic currency is high. We show that when money is indivisible these shocks can drive in or out the foreign currency. When money is divisible, this currency substitution effect is more limited. We use our results to discuss the opportunity of various de-dollarization policies and show that some can be counterproductive.     

货币危机对产出的影响--一个货币危机的综合模型

不同的货币危机对经济产出水平有不同的影响,文章主要研究货币危机与产出水平之间的关系.文章构造了一个由IPLM曲线和总产出曲线构成的汇率-产出模型,揭示了三代货币危机模型的内在关联性.在这个简单的货币危机综合模型中,第一代货币危机模型和第二代货币危机模型被作为第三代货币危机模型的特例,从而把三代货币危机模型统一起来,解释了不同货币危机对产出水平的不同影响.     

Local Currency Pricing versus Producer Currency Pricing: Direct Evidence from German Exporters

Abstract. In new open-economy macroeconomic models, the assumption on the pricing behavior of firms in international trade plays a central role. Whether firms apply producer currency pricing (PCP) or local currency pricing (LCP) crucially affects, for example, the design of optimal monetary policy or the choice of the optimal exchange rate system. However, empirical evidence has so far been mixed and is furthermore mostly of an indirect nature. This paper draws direct evidence on the price-setting behavior of German exporters from a questionnaire-based survey. We find that PCP applies in more integrated markets. Differences between LCP firms and PCP firms mainly exist with respect to the use of mark-ups and in the validity of the law of one price for their respective products.     

The Optimum Currency Area Puzzle

The theory of optimum currency areas, suggesting the redrawing of currency areas across countries or splitting of national money into several currencies, is at odds with the one-money-one-country pattern that has dominated monetary history for 26 centuries. This paper puts forward an equilibrium approach which, by stressing the influence of the border effect on intranational adjustment, solves the puzzle and analyzes the closely related issue of the viability of monetary unions and regional specialization.     

Fiscal Uncertainty and Currency Crises

Fiscal deficits have been put forward as the main factor in the occurrence of currency crises by the first‐generation currency crisis models. While most papers within this framework consider a fiscal deficit that occurs with certainty, in reality an increase in the government's fiscal burden may be an uncertain outcome. This paper introduces a model where there is uncertainty about the occurrence of a fiscal deficit for a finite number of periods, and studies the effects of such uncertainty on the evolution of currency crises. If the fiscal deficit materializes, the government has to abandon the fixed exchange rate regime, as in the standard case. However, the paper shows that the peg becomes unsustainable even if the fiscal deficit never materializes. Therefore, a speculative attack occurs and the fixed exchange rate regime collapses with the mere possibility of a deficit, independently of whether this outcome actually occurs or not.     

Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes

This paper investigates which factors determine whether sudden stops in international capital flows are followed by a currency crash using data for 85 economies in the period 1980–2012. An event study approach is used for an 11‐year window around the crises for nine potential explanatory variables. In addition, the paper estimates discrete‐choice panel models. The results suggest that low trade openness, shallow financial markets, and current account imbalances increase the likelihood that a sudden stop will be followed by a currency crash. Moreover, it is established that the impact of these factors differs across different exchange rate regimes.     

Political Regimes and Currency Crises

This paper examines the relationship between political regime type and currency crises. Some theories suggest that democratic regimes, owing to their greater political transparency and larger number of veto players, should have a lower risk of currency crisis than dictatorships. Alternative arguments emphasize the advantages of political insulation and rulers with long time horizons, and imply that crises should be most likely in democracies and least common in monarchic dictatorships. We evaluate these competing arguments across four types of political regimes using a time‐series cross‐sectional dataset that covers 178 countries between 1973 and 2009. Our findings suggest that the risk of currency crisis is substantially lower in monarchies than in democracies and other types of dictatorship. Further analyses indicate that the adoption of prudent financial policies largely account for this robust negative association between monarchies and the probability of currency crises. This suggests that political regimes strongly influence financial stability, and perverse political incentives help explain why currency crises are so common.     

Currency substitution and transactions costs

This paper examines currency substitution in Canadian money demand vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar. A variant of the model developed by Bordo and Choudhri (1982) is estimated to test for the presence and extent of this substitution. The modified model is enhanced by the introduction of foreign exchange transactions costs. The resulting increased explanatory power indicates that previous tests which have omitted such costs understate the extent of currency substitution.