Search and Knightian uncertainty

Suppose that “uncertainty” about labor market conditions has increased. Does this change induce an unemployed worker to search longer, or shorter? This paper shows that the answer is drastically different depending on whether an increase in “uncertainty” is an increase in risk or that in true uncertainty in the sense of Frank Knight. We show in a general framework that, while an increase in risk (the mean-preserving spread of the wage distribution that the worker thinks she faces) increases the reservation wage, an increase in Knightian uncertainty (a decrease in her confidence about the wage distribution) reduces it.     

Good Judgment,Good Luck: Frank Fetter’s Neglected Theory of Entrepreneurship

Frank Fetter’s contributions to entrepreneurship and the theory of the firm are usually overlooked although his original treatments are relevant to both the history of economic thought and contemporary entrepreneurship research. This article highlights three ways in which Fetter’s work adds to our understanding of the entrepreneurial process. First, entrepreneurs direct their enterprises through the careful delegation of authority to managers, thereby maintaining residual control over the firm; similar views were pioneered by Frank Knight and the Austrian economists who continue to study cognate problems like judgmental decision making and proxy-entrepreneurship. Second, Fetter foreshadows Knight’s influential distinction between risk and uncertainty by arguing that entrepreneurs bear uncertainty through their investment decisions. However, Fetter extends Knight’s work by explicitly considering the role that chance and luck play in entrepreneurial success, a problem still debated in entrepreneurship studies. Third, Fetter argues that scarcity implies the active investment of resources, and thus the need for entrepreneurship. This view hints at current research on entrepreneurial bricolage as well as work emphasizing investment rather than opportunity as the defining concept of entrepreneurship. It also provides the microfoundations for strategic entrepreneurship research.     

UNCERTAINTY AVERSION AND PORTFOLIO INERTIA

In stock markets, we often observe portfolio inertia, i.e., a situation in which some stocks are not traded or not priced for a few minutes or longer. This is neither an exceptional situation in which some stock price soars too high to be priced, nor the one where some stock price plummets too much to be traded. By introducing the concept of ‘Knightian uncertainty’, Dow and Werlang (1992) account for the existence of portfolio inertia, which has not been accounted for under the concept of ‘risk’. This paper provides a characterization of the spread between buying and selling prices based on a parameter proposed by Ozaki and Streufert (1999, 2001) that enables us to estimate the attitude towards Knightian uncertainty, and shows that an increase (a decrease) in Knightian uncertainty expands (shrinks) the interval in which an investor never changes her initial position. Furthermore, we analyse the effect of an increase in Knightian uncertainty on portfolio inertia based on Epsilon‐contaminations.     

Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty

When firms make a decision about irreversible investment, they may not have complete confidence about their perceived probability measure describing future uncertainty. They may think other probability measures perturbed from the original one are also possible. Such uncertainty, characterized by not a single probability measure but a set of probability measures, is called “Knightian uncertainty.” The effect of Knightian uncertainty on the value of irreversible investment opportunity is shown to be drastically different from that of traditional uncertainty in the form of risk. Specifically, an increase in Knightian uncertainty decreases the value of investment opportunity while an increase in risk increases it.     

现代不确定性理论的比较研究

不确定性分析是现代经济理论产生的前提.奈特是不确定性理论的开创者,在对风险和不确定性划分的基础上,奈特解释了利润的来源,并对企业的性质进行了界定.科斯在分析企业理论时,对奈特的不确定性理论进行了批判.威廉姆森是继科斯之后集交易成本理论之大成者.无论是奈特、科斯或是威廉姆森都重视不确定性对企业的影响,但他们三者在不确定性的内涵、理论地位及分析方法上都存在不同.     

Knightian Uncertainty in Financial Markets: An Assessment

If information is too vague and imprecise to be summarized by a unique additive probability measure, an agent faces Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk. Under Knightian uncertainty, an agent's beliefs may be represented by a capacity or a set of additive probabilities. It is proved that an agent's attitude towards ambiguity has a crucial role in asset price determination and portfolio choice. Knightian uncertainty attitude provides an alternative explanation of financial market failures and enables puzzles to be solved, such as market breakdowns, price indeterminacy and volatility, bid and ask spreads, portfolio inertia, violation of call and put parity.
(J.E.L.: D81, G11, G12).     

Knowledge,coordination and the firm: Historical perspectives

Abstract

This paper illustrates the problems and processes of developing economic knowledge by a selective historical treatment of ideas about the firm. Coase thought it necessary to explain firms as organizations, but not as distinctive productive units; neither did he explain why markets exist. Chamberlin's attempt to introduce product differentiation and selling costs is compared with Allyn Young's process theory and Marshall's treatment of the firm, and inter-firm relations, as means of organizing the growth of knowledge. The firm is a decision-making system in a context of Knightian uncertainty, and Simon's concept of quasi-decomposability applies to human brains and human organizations.     

The uncertain foundations of the welfare state

The welfare state is often portrayed as provider of insurance against ‘uncertainties’, in Knight's (1921) sense of the term, which would be refused or underinsured on private markets. This image conflicts with the standard economic model of risk exchange founded on the subjective interpretation of probability, which predicts that all individual uncertainties will be insured by private markets. Our aim in this paper is to explain why this prediction fails and, building on contributions to decision theory that take seriously the idea of Knightian uncertainty, to show why social insurance may be justified.     

Frank Knight and pragmatism∗

Abstract

One of many controversies surrounding the work of Frank Knight involves the question of whether, or to what degree, his ideas were consistent with those of American pragmatism. Substantive textual evidence can be found to support almost any simple answer to the question. This paper argues that while Knight was quite (often aggressively) opposed to a particular set of pragmatic ideas alive in the scholarly and social debates of his day, this fact says more about Knight's historical context than it does about the broader relationship between his philosophical position and pragmatism. Knight was opposed to the social control pragmatism of his day, but at the same time his general philosophical position has much in common with the features of the pragmatic tradition that are most emphasized in the recent philosophical literature.     

Time, knowledge and evolutionary dynamics: why connections matter

Time matters because knowledge changes. Knightian uncertainty excludes correct procedures and proven knowledge, but makes room for imagination and creativity, which drive an evolutionary process. Human cognition relies less on logic than on pattern-making; we impose connecting principles to create patterns and causal linkages between them as representations of phenomena, which are imperfect and often subject to multiple interpretations. Stable patterns provide the necessary baseline for selection. Our personal patterns are supplemented by institutional regularities, and organisations of various kinds help to shape the development of knowledge, which grows by making connections at the various margins of existing knowledge.     

Reverse Capital Deepening and the Numeraire: a note

The orthodox theory of precautionary saving fails to distinguish risk from uncertainty, and thus assumes the existence of a probability distribution governing an individual's future income prospects. The individual is assumed to be motivated to save by the dispersion in the distribution of future income, and researchers have therefore attempted to correlate saving with income variance. However, the empirical evidence tends to refute any such correlation. This paper proposes a concept of futility to describe actions that cannot affect the external environment, and demonstrates that precautionary saving in the orthodox sense is futile inasmuch as saving cannot alter the dispersion of resources around an expected future value. Despite the inadequacy of orthodox theory, the theory is perpetuated because even futile behaviour is consistent with the neoclassical notion of rationality. The retention of an invalid theory of precaution provides a faulty basis for both empirical research and policy analysis; thus, the present paper suggests an alternative approach to precaution based on the work of Knight and Shackle, in which decisions are made under conditions of uncertainty rather than risk.     

Knightian uncertainty and poverty trap in a model of economic growth

This paper explores how Knightian uncertainty affects dynamic properties in an economic growth model. The decision-making theory employed in the analysis is the theory of expected utility under a non-additive probability measure, i.e., the Choquet expected utility model of preference. We apply this decision-making theory to an overlapping generations model where producers face “uncertainty” in their technologies. When the producer is averse to uncertainty, the firm's profit function may not be differentiable. Therefore, the firm's decision to invest and hire labor becomes rigid for a certain measurable range of real interest rates. In dynamic equilibrium, the existence of firm-level rigidity causes discontinuity in the wage function; this makes multiple equilibria the more likely outcomes under the log utility and Cobb–Douglas production functions. In this paper, we show that even if aversion to uncertainty is small, the “poverty trap” can arise for a wide range of parameter values.     

Knightian decision theory and econometric inferences

An uncertainty averse Knightian decision maker has a set of probability distributions over outcomes and chooses something other than the status quo only if the change increases the expected payoff according to all the distributions. It is possible to define a standardized degree of uncertainty aversion. To each such degree, there corresponds a set of prior distributions over the parameters of a Gaussian linear regression model, these priors being centered on a uniform prior. The set of posterior means corresponding to this set of priors has the same properties as a standard confidence region.     

Justifying precautionary policies: Incommensurability and uncertainty

When decisions are taken in conditions of Keynesian or Knightian uncertainty, and when there is a threat of serious or irreversible environmental damage, the Precautionary Principle is often recommended to guide decision-making. However, the Precautionary Principle has been widely criticised. In response to these criticisms, a qualitative version of the Precautionary Principle is developed which draws its normative content from a blend of formal decision theory and political philosophy. It is argued that precautionary action can be justified by some flexible combination of uncertainty and incommensurability. The ‘greater’ the uncertainty, the ‘less’ incommensurability is required to justify precautionary action, and vice versa. Throughout the paper, the arguments are explored using the example of climate change decision problems.     

The Organizational Approach of Capability Theory

Abstract

Richard Langlois, Tony Yu & Paul Robertson (LYR) (2003) have assembled a collection of previously published papers that move beyond textbook production theory. This essay discusses work by Frank Knight and Hendrik Houthakker not reproduced in LYR in relation to the capability theory of economic organization. Knight identified the problem of organization as the search for and the coordination of different dispersed capabilities. Houthakker helps us to see more clearly that the benefits of specialization are not brought at zero cost; whatever is the governance structure employed, there will inevitably be coordination costs due to differences in capabilities.     

General equilibrium, wariness and efficient bubbles

Wary consumers overlook gains but not losses in remote sets of dates or states. As preferences are upper but not lower Mackey semi-continuous, Bewley?s (1972) [4] result on existence of equilibrium whose prices are not necessarily countably additive holds. Wariness is related to lack of myopia and to ambiguity aversion (and, therefore, to Bewley?s (1986) [6] work on Knightian uncertainty). Wary infinite lived agents have weaker transversality conditions allowing them to be creditors at infinity and for bubbles to occur in positive net supply assets completing the markets. There are efficient allocations that can only be implemented with asset bubbles.     

Economic theorist and ‘entrepreneur of popularisation’: Schumpeter as Finance Minister and journalist

Abstract

Modern theory of popularisation suggests that the production and the popularisation of scientific knowledge are interlinked and interactive processes. This perspective offers new insights into Joseph A. Schumpeter's main work in public finance, The Crisis of the Tax State, and into his later endeavours as Finance Minister and journalist to popularise two central economic ideas of this work, the once-and-for-all capital levy and the reform of the tax system. We demonstrate that Schumpeter's Crisis contains popularising features and was written with a popularising intention. Furthermore, we show that in his journalistic works popularisation went hand in hand with the development of innovative economic ideas.     

Cognition,competition, and catallaxy in memory of Friedrich August von Hayek

The paper focuses on central elements of the scientific work of Friedrich A. v. Hayek since the 1930s. In a first part, his epistemological position and its implications for his understanding of the tasks of the social sciences are presented as he set them out particularly in theSensory Order (1952). Then, it is shown how his findings in economic theory as well as in the analysis of economic and societal systems are formed by these foundations. His emphasis on the subjectivity and the constitutional limitations of human knowledge is identified as a precondition for the outstanding analytical insights which he gained with regard to the functioning of a market order and the role of institutions in societal development. Furthermore, it is argued that Hayek's enduring campaign for freedom and against the socialist tendencies in welfare states was not simply a matter of personal conviction. It was also the result of his analysis in constitutional political economy which revealed to him that freedom as a normative basis of economic and societal institutions is the key to the explanation of European cultural evolution.