我国消费信贷的市场取向

近几年来，我国经济保持了高速稳定增长，但同时国民经济也面临着宏观稳步增长、微观有效需求不足的形势。对此，国家相继出台了一系列积极的财政及货币政策，以期刺激国内消费与投资需求，扩大内需，推动经济发展。为配合国民经济整体战略，中国人民银行自1997年以来也相继采取了一系列货币政策工具运作，其中一项重要措施就是通过窗口指导和政策引导来启动国内消费信贷市场，引导商业银行开拓消费信贷业务。但总体而言，我国虽然启动了住房、汽车等消费信贷，消费信贷也取得较快的发展，     

Investment Horizon and Repo in the Over‐the‐Counter Market

This paper presents a three‐period model featuring a short‐term investor in the over‐the‐counter bond market. A short‐term investor stores cash because of a need to pay cash at some future date. If a short‐term investor buys bonds, then a deadline for retrieving cash lowers the resale price of bonds for the investor through bilateral bargaining in the bond market. Ex‐ante, this hold‐up problem explains the use of a repo by a short‐term investor, the existence of a haircut, and the vulnerability of a repo market to counterparty risk. This result holds without any uncertainty about bond returns or asymmetric information.     

Over‐the‐Counter Market Frictions and Yield Spread Changes

We empirically study whether systematic over‐the‐counter (OTC) market frictions drive the large unexplained common factor in yield spread changes. Using transaction data on U.S. corporate bonds, we find that marketwide inventory, search, and bargaining frictions explain 23.4% of the variation in the common component. Systematic OTC frictions thus substantially improve the explanatory power of yield spread changes and account for one‐third of their total explained variation. Search and bargaining frictions combined explain more in the common dynamics of yield spread changes than inventory frictions. Our findings support the implications of leading theories of intermediation frictions in OTC markets.     

Monetary Policy,Asset Prices,and Liquidity in Over‐the‐Counter Markets

We develop a model where agents can allocate their wealth between a liquid asset, which can be used to purchase consumption goods, and an illiquid asset, which represents a better store of value. Should a consumption opportunity arise, agents may visit a frictional “over‐the‐counter” secondary asset market where they can exchange illiquid for liquid assets. We characterize how monetary policy affects both the issue price and the secondary market price of the asset. We also show that, in contrast to conventional wisdom, search and bargaining frictions in the secondary asset market can improve welfare if inflation is low.     

消费信用中的个人征信问题探析

近年来,消费信贷在我国发展迅速,但个人征信制度的不完善已成为制约消费信贷发展的瓶颈.建立个人征信体系,发展消费信用,应从完善征信的法制环境、加强政府的协调与扶持、完善公共征信数据库、统一个人信用评估标准等方面入手.     

Foreclosure Delay and Consumer Credit Performance

The deep housing market recession from 2008 through 2010 was characterized by a steep rise in number of foreclosures. The average length of time from onset of delinquency through the end of the foreclosure process also expanded dramatically. Although most individuals undergoing foreclosure were experiencing serious financial stress, the extended foreclosure timelines enabled them to live in their homes without making mortgage payments until the end of the foreclosure process, thus providing temporary income and liquidity benefits from lower housing costs. This paper investigates the impact of extended foreclosure timelines on borrower performance with credit card debt. Our results indicate that a longer period of nonpayment of mortgage expenses results in higher cure rates on delinquent credit cards and reduced credit card balances. Thus, foreclosure process delays may have mitigated the impact of the economic downturn on credit card default—suggesting that improvement in credit card performance during the post-crisis period would likely be slowed by the removal of the temporary liquidity benefits as foreclosures reach completion.     

互联网消费金融征信:域外经验与中国镜鉴

近年来,我国征信市场伴随着互联网、大数据等金融科技浪潮迅速壮大,并以此促进了互联网消费金融行业的发展。然而,互联网消费金融行业的征信问题必须引起高度重视,如征信体系尚不健全、信息有效性不足、信息供求失衡、信息资源共享机制尚未形成等。通过考察域外国家不同法律体系的互联网消费金融征信建设情况,提出我国互联网消费金融征信体系建设的路径选择建议。     

The Over‐the‐Counter Theory of the Fed Funds Market: A Primer

We present a dynamic over‐the‐counter model of the fed funds market and use it to study the determination of the fed funds rate, the volume of loans traded, and the intraday evolution of the distribution of reserve balances across banks. We also investigate the implications of changes in the market structure, as well as the effects of central bank policy instruments such as open market operations, the discount window lending rate, and the interest rate on bank reserves.     

关于消费信贷的几点思考和建议

目前,我国的消费信贷发展迅速,规模急剧上升,但在发展的同时也存在许多问题.商业银行在发展消费信贷时存在着法律、社会问题,面临的风险较大.因此,商业银行必须创造一个发展消费信贷的良好环境,最大程度地降低消费信贷的风险.     

消费信贷与家庭人力资本投资

已有丰富的文献考察了消费信贷对家庭消费和投资行为的影响,但少有研究关注其对家庭人力资本投资的影响。家庭人力资本投资对于人力资本积累、经济高质量发展至关重要。基于此,本文考察了信用卡使用对家庭人力资本投资的影响及其影响机制,主要发现如下：信用卡使用显著增加了家庭人力资本投资,且这一效应具有长期动态影响并对城市、高收入、高教育程度家庭影响更为显著,这意味着信用卡消费信贷可能会增加人力资本不平等。进一步研究发现,家庭会增加劳动力供给来应对人力资本支出的增加。机制分析表明,信用卡使用主要通过增加家庭消费投资、促进消费升级、缓解家庭预算约束三种途径促进家庭人力资本投资。在风险可控的前提下,引导消费信贷流向有利于实体经济发展的领域,可助力于消费升级与人力资本积累,从而为经济发展提供新动能。     

欠发达地区消费信贷发展分析——以海南省为例

消费信贷发展等因素对消费水平提高具有积极推动作用.在当前全球金融危机影响下,促进我国消费增长是应对国际金融危机不利影响的关键举措.     

Additional Credit for Liquidity-Constrained Individuals: High-Interest Consumer Credit in Korea

We find that the delinquency probability on formal sector debts of private loan borrowers in Korea increases from 2.4% to 20% in the first year after the borrowing and to 32% in the second year. This increase happens despite private loan borrowers trying to rebuild their financial health by reducing formal sector debts, credit card cash service balances, and credit card purchases during the post-borrowing period. This limits the possibility of moral hazard driving the results. Private loan amounts are positively associated with the delinquency probability after controlling other commonly used variables, suggesting that they contain additional information on the worsening financial situation of an individual.     

Credit Scoring and the Availability of Small Business Credit in Low‐ and Moderate‐Income Areas

This paper estimates that credit scoring is associated with about a $3,900 increase in small business lending per sample banking organization, per low‐ and moderate‐income (LMI) area served, and this effect is roughly equivalent to that estimated for higher‐income areas. For our sample, this corresponds to a $536 million increase in small business credit in LMI areas in 1997 than otherwise would have been the case. This effect appears to be driven by increased out‐of‐market lending by banking organizations, as in‐market lending generally declines. Overall, it does not appear that credit scoring has a disparate impact on LMI areas.     

VaR在消费信贷风险管理中的应用

随着我国消费信贷的发展，如何提高消费信贷风险管理的技术水平将成为我国商业银行在发展消费信贷业务过程中所面临的首要问题。VaR方法以概率论为基础，运用现代统计方法，对金融资产或资产组合的风险价值进行评估，J.P摩根“信用度量方法”通过考察借款人信用状态的变迁（信用评级转移矩阵）来评估单项资产或资产组织的风险价值，因而和传统信用风险管理方法相比，VaR方法更具科学性和适用性。本文通过一个实例探讨了基于J.P摩根’信用度量方法”之上的VaR方法在消费信贷风险管理中的应用，为商业银行消费信贷风险管理提供了一个新的思路和相应的政策建议。     

个人消费信贷:中美比较与借鉴

美国发展个人消费信贷业务的主要经验是建立完善的个人信用制度和相关法律制度以保护借贷双方的权益,开发个人消费信贷二级市场使消费信贷市场具备再发展的原动力,政府积极参与以弥补市场的不足,商业消费信贷与银行信用密切结合促进消费信贷发展.中国个人消费信贷发展迅速,但相对来说仍存在许多不足,主要是:信用体系和法律制度不够健全,产品同质化程度较高,创新能力不强,个人消费信贷发放机构较单一,信贷手续繁琐等.我国应建立、健全有效的信用制度和法律体系,建立消费信贷二级市场,积极创造有利于消费信贷发展的外部政策环境,商业银行自身应加强消费信贷业务的创新.     

对商业银行发展消费信贷的思考

本从社会经济背景、传统化心理、消费信贷发展过程、消费主体利益、居民经济承受力、消费市场不对称等几个方面分析了消费信贷发展滞后的原因；提高商业银行应积极开办“住房返抵押贷款”、存单或国债跨行抵押贷款、信用卡消费贷款的思路。