建立信用制度的建议

妨碍信用制度建立的因素主要有以下几个方面。 1．企业和个人等经济主体普遍缺乏信用基础。信用基础是经济主体按照承诺付还债务的自有财产，在计划经济条件下，国有企业不是独立的、以自己的财产承担债务责任的经济主体，在财务上与国家财政保持统收统支的关系；改革以来，国有企业逐渐成为相对独立的经济主体，……     

解决银企债务问题的对策性思考

一、银企债务问题是经济体制和经济运行中诸多因素相互作用的结果。缘由主要来自以下几方面：1．长期实行计划经济体制是银企债务形成的基础。计划经济体制下，国有企业的资本结构单一，固定资产投资和流动资金的50—60％由财政拨付，资本的融资渠道只剩下国家财政拨款这一条．而企业实现的利润和提取的折旧大部分均已上缴国家财政，企业留利水平低，自我积累少，无形之中相当于提高了负债比重。     

化解国有企业债务的思路

货解国有企业债务可就债权股权，财政，银行和国有企业实行债务转换，发行债券，置换贷款，拍卖债权，依法破产一部分国有企业等途径，视具体情况谨慎抉择。     

中国票据业务发展大事记

1979年前，国家对商业信用实行强化管理，禁止和控制商业信用。改革开放以后，国家对商业信用开始实行有计划、有控制的开放政策。1981年，为了防止企业之间的赊销、预付行为造成相互拖欠而影响资金正常周转，上海率先推出银行汇票承兑贴现业务，试行商业信用票据化。     

对建立新银企关系的一些思考

一、我国银行与企业关系中存在的问题１、银行与企业债务危机由于财政无力承担国有企业的巨额亏损补贴,对国有企业的亏损补贴和维持国有企业运转就无可回避地由国家严格控制的国有银行承担。从表面上来看,银行与企业间是商业借贷行为,但实际上偿还的可能性极小。另外,银行和企业之间的信用关系非契约化。银行贷出的款项,既无法律保证,也无抵押担保。由于经营不善等原因,企业逃债、废债、赖债,造成银行的呆帐、坏帐,信贷资产质量下降。在这种形势下,银行就会倾向于不愿向企业提供贷款,或减少贷款量。由此形成的债务危机无疑严重地…     

改善社会信用状况与防范金融风险

我国目前的社会信用，若以债权、债务人划分，大致可分为国家信用、银行信用、商业信用和民间信用等。其中，国家诊最为优良，主要为我国财政向居民、企业、银行等举债发行的国家债券。由于以国家的信用为基础，从来都能按时还本、付息，因此，债券享誉“金边债券”的称号。     

基于政府资产负债表或国家资产负债表弥补的国有资本价值预算实施北大核心

面对财政紧平衡及地方财政没有盈余的常态,较大支出缺口与较大债务违约极易诱发重大风险。加快实施国有资本价值预算而建立经常性权益储备,在复合预算中相应设置“经常性权益”预算科目,打造政府或国家收支平衡调节的“蓄水池”,及时增加政府权益或国家权益,维持政府信用评级、国家信用评级,积极并主动防范重大风险爆发。     

短期债务、商业信用与企业风险承担——基于上市非金融企业的实证研究

本文以2007-2017年A股上市公司数据为样本,研究商业信用和短期债务(仅包括企业短期借款和一年内到期的非流动负债两部分)两种融资方式对于企业风险承担影响的差异性,结果表明资产负债率越高的企业风险承担水平越低,商业信用会降低企业风险承担水平,短期债务能显著提高企业的风险承担水平;进一步将短期债务细分为短期债务比重高和比重低的两组,对比二者对于企业风险承担水平的影响时发现,短期债务比重较低时,适当增加它的比重能提高企业风险承担水平,当短期债务水平超过某一限度时,企业风险承担水平会随着短期债务比重的增加而降低;此外,研究还发现商业信用对短期债务与企业风险承担之间具有负向调节作用。企业在生产经营过程中需要结合自身的经营状况,恰当安排商业信用和短期债务的比例关系,形成合理的债务结构,建立相应的预警机制并充分发挥商业信用的调节作用,以降低企业风险。     

国有企业债券集中违约风险与对策研究

社会主义市场经济是法治经济和信用经济的有机统一,而企业信用尤其国有企业信用是我国市场经济持续健康发展的重要基石.针对近期频繁发生的国有企业债券违约风险及其根源进行研究后发现:国有企业债券频繁违约甚至恶意违约,容易导致国有企业的信用体系坍塌,并释放区域系统性金融风险和当地金融生态严重恶化的信号;究其原因,尽管有经济增长放缓、新冠肺炎疫情冲击、叠加市场大幅波动的外部原因,但根源还是在于这些国有企业“重投资的规模和速度情结”“重债务的融资和管控失序”和“经营恶化和现金流失控”等内部原因.为此,建议从推进国有企业债务透明度建设、建立国有企业债务风险预警系统、强化国有企业债券违约问责机制、完善国有企业投融资决策制度等四个方面着力防范化解国有企业债券违约风险,实现国有企业高质量发展.     

债务结构对企业绩效的影响的实证分析——对国有和非国有企业比较分析

本文以2007-2009年在沪深交易所上市的上市公司为样本分析企业的债务融资结构对企业业绩的影响效果,以企业商业信用和银行借款作为企业债务融资的主要变量,实证分析发现不同于整体负债对于企业的治理效果,企业商业信用和银行借款对于企业有较好的治理效果,表现为促进企业业绩增长。但进一步的分析表明,国有企业中,银行借款并未起到良好的治理效果,而非国有企业则治理效果良好。并据此给出改革建议,应当减轻政府对国有企业的帮助,加强银行作为债权人的治理,同时采取措施促进非国有企业的发展。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.