Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: Nordic facilities management foresight

A number of studies have explored the interconnection between the foresight literature and the innovation system literature. This paper adds to these studies by investigating how theoretical elements of the innovation system approach can contribute to the design and practice of foresight processes. The paper originates in a foresight project in the Nordic facilities management sector. The goal of the foresight project was to identify the possible futures of the facilities management sector in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and, based on the findings, to establish a proposal for a common Nordic facilities management research agenda. The paper finds that three elements of the innovation system literature are of particular interest for the practice of foresight: innovation systems and context dependency, learning and user–producer interactions, and the role of knowledge and knowledge production. These elements are embedded into a simple sectoral innovation system model (including actors, knowledge flows, and the strategic environment).     

Framework foresight: Exploring futures the Houston way

Over the last several years, the University of Houston developed and codified a method for teaching students how to carry out foresight projects. This development represented a philosophical shift from a neutral presentation of methods without particular advocacy for one or the other. The challenge that this neutral approach presented is that each method is somewhat different and especially for those new to foresight, it became challenging to find common ground, distinguish them, or to know when to use one or the other. Our experience is that our initial wariness of promoting a standard method and thus a “one-right-way” of doing foresight proved unfounded. Not only does it not detract from the teaching of other methods, in fact it has made it easier. Framework Foresight was deliberately built to accommodate and incorporate other methods and approaches. It provides a basis of comparison of how various practitioners and methods do the work, enabling them to assess the strengths and weaknesses of each. Framework Foresight thus could be viewed as a meta-method in that it is a modular approach that accommodates a substitution of, or supplementation from, other methods or techniques at various steps. As students became practitioners and used the method in their practice, they have provided useful feedback and have generally reported back good results. Thus, Framework Foresight is offered to the foresight community as a method for carrying out foresight projects     

The impact of foresight on environmental science and technology policy in the Netherlands

Globalisation, high tech development and environmental issues have made policy makers aware again of the possibilities of future studies for policy making. However, the lack of systematic knowledge about their impact is a major obstruction to a proper use of future studies. Especially since future studies no longer claim to predict the future, but are seen as a strategic tool for improving strategic interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making, insight in the dynamics of future studies is indispensable. In this article we review four future studies in the Netherlands with an eye on their methods and related impact on research in sustainable technology. Although in content the four studies were quite similar, they were complementary in linking research strategies and policy objectives.     

The prospects of BRIC countries: Testing weak-form market efficiency

The main purpose of the study is to determine whether the equity markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) may be considered weak-form efficient in recent years. The major findings using daily data and a bias-free statistical technique with a sample spanning from September 1995 to March 2010 indicate that the results from the last sub-periods, including the subprime crisis, support the belief that these markets may have been approaching a state of being fairly weak-form efficient, which reflects the future prospects of BRIC countries.     

Probing the future: Mobilising foresight in multiple-product innovation firms

With rapid changes in technology and intense competition in the business environment the importance of cultivating and sustaining foresight in multiple-product innovation firms has been propelled to unprecedented heights. Yet, research on the processes through which such firms mobilise foresight in their working environment remains scarce. This paper seeks to explore the different processes through which a high-performing new product design consultancy probes into the future aiming to identify possible avenues for product development and potentially define trends in multiple industries. This inductive, theory-building study identifies seven key processes and stresses the importance of perpetual probing and learning for sustaining foresight in such high-change environments.     

Comparison of national foresight studies by integrated foresight management model

National foresight studies have become a common tool in the last decade of the 20th century. Despite the fact that a lot of comparative studies have been carried out to compare these projects, none of them has been capturing all dimensions and elements of foresight since a comprehensive definition of foresight was missing. The integrated foresight management model is an attempt to provide an integrated and holistic view about the impact of foresight on the management of the future. In this article, a checklist is proposed based on the integrated foresight management model to compare eight national foresight studies. Based on the results, the discussion about “generations” of foresight is revisited and a new definition of “generations” is proposed. The conceptual framework which is the integrated foresight management model and the derived checklist can be developed in the future by expanding the amount of data available for analysis and the number of independent experts to make this comparison.     

Internal and external spillover effects for the BRIC countries: Multivariate GARCH-in-mean approach

This paper examines mean-to-mean, volatility-to-mean and volatility-to-volatility spillover effects for the stock markets of BRIC countries. External and internal spillovers of returns and volatilities are estimated using 4-dimensional BEKK-GARCH-in-mean model. The model also includes the returns of stock markets in the USA, Germany, Japan and the MSCI Emerging market index, as well as time-return interaction terms which allow taking into account the dynamics of their influence on BRIC stock markets during pre-crisis, crisis and recovery time periods. Some evidence for the famous ‘decoupling’ phenomenon is found. The research contributes to the literature on spillover effects by using multivariate GARCH models.     

Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development

The transition from a traditional industry-driven economy to a knowledge-based economy requires new concepts and methods for companies to sustain competitive advantage. Here, academia has identified corporate foresight and innovation as key success factors. While, content-wise, the contribution of futures research methods to the innovation process has already been researched, this study strives to explore the status quo of organizational development stages of both concepts. To do so, we developed a portfolio-approach, the so-called ‘Future-Fitness-Portfolio’, which enables companies to qualitatively compare amongst others and identify organizational improvement potential. In addition, we conducted expert interviews to explore future organizational development trends in corporate foresight and innovation management. As our research revealed, five strategic clusters can be identified within the portfolio. Consequently, we propose specific strategies for each individual cluster. We conclude that there will be two main organizational development trends for corporate foresight and innovation management in the future: in traditional industries with conventional business models and long product-life-cycles, companies will follow a different development path than companies in dynamic industries with innovative business models and short product-life-cycles.     

The impact of national traditions and cultures on national foresight processes

This paper addresses the influence of national traditions, styles or culture on the use of foresight in decision-making processes. Inspired by sociologists’ contributions on national culture, the paper demonstrates that two dimensions of national culture, power distance and uncertainty avoidance, are useful in the characterisation of the context in which national foresight exercises are carried out. The paper is based on two Danish cases: The Danish Government's Globalisation Strategy, from 2005, and the Danish Research 2015 process, from 2008, which focus on priority settings for strategic research.     

Entrepreneurship as foresight: A complex social network perspective on organisational foresight

This paper addresses the relationship between foresight and entrepreneurship. It characterises the foresight inherent in entrepreneurial activity as situated within particular discourses, or communities of practice (CoPs) in a range of structures. The argument is based on the use of complexity theory (CT) to provide insight into the dynamics of entrepreneurial activity. Complexity theories of entrepreneurship are grounded in empirical studies of entrepreneurial action. A multilevel model (MM) characterising emergent structures within the entrepreneurial domain is presented as an extension of existing CT, with entrepreneurship characterised as the practice of foresight relating to that structure. The model is grounded in two case studies of entrepreneurial ventures in high velocity business environments, airline services, and sound system accessories. An empirical model—EROS—Experiments, Reflexivity, Organising Domains, and Sensitivity—is developed to reflect entrepreneurial processes at the level of the individual, the firm, and inter-firm connections—and the interactions between them. The notion of the CoP is used to deepen the analyses, examining how the layers of the MM are constituted through the foresight inherent in entrepreneurial activity over time. As well as presenting a coherent theoretical understanding of the entrepreneurial landscape, there are practical implications for policy-makers and educators wishing to improve entrepreneurial foresight.     

Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight

We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing.     

The epistemological relevance of the arts in foresight and futures studies

In this paper, we argue that the arts in its various forms have a genuine epistemological relevance to the theory and practice of foresight. To this end, we draw on the work of Ernst Bloch to advance the ‘disclosive’ role of graffiti art in contributing to futures becoming and the understanding of peoples’ subjective experiences and shared social theories about inarticulate social currents that may bring to life possibilities and potentialities in the realisation of some modest utopian visions.     

The state of foresight in food and agriculture: Challenges for impact and participation

1. Download : Download high-res image (155KB)
2. Download : Download full-size image

     

Exploring Bubbles in the Digital Economy: The Case of China

This study identifies the cyclical boom-and-bust episodes in digital economy-related assets and determines whether bubbles exist in China's digital economy. The extant literature mainly focuses on tech or cryptocurrency bubbles and has not considered the digital economy. Therefore, we use data from March 22, 2017, to March 3, 2022, and employ the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) technique to capture the irrational prosperity in China's digital economy. The conclusion suggests the existence of five bubbles in China's digital economy, all accompanied by extreme fluctuations in related asset prices, which the asset-pricing model supports. Under the backdrop of the scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, this exploration offers meaningful suggestions for China to facilitate the sound development of the digital economy.     

The impact of accounting restatements on corporate innovation strategy

This study examines the effect of accounting restatements on corporate innovation strategy. Using a sample of restating firms and propensity-score-matched non-restating firms from 2000 to 2009, we find that, after restatements, restating firms experience a greater increase in exploratory innovation and a greater reduction in exploitative innovation compared to non-restating firms. These results suggest that restating firms are associated with an increased risk appetite as managers believe the upside potential may yield corporate improvement. The results also differ between fraudulent and non-fraudulent restatements, and among restatements of varying severity. The results of this study shed light on a previously unexplored consequence of accounting restatement and highlight its real impact on corporate business strategy.     

创新是可持续发展的原动力--《中国农业银行科技创新工程2005～2007年行动计划》之科技创新工作体系

《中国农业银行科技创新工程2005～2007年行动计划》共分为四篇。在金字塔形的中国农业银行科技创新工程基本目标模型中，第三篇科技创新工作体系建设行动计划是整个计划的最高层次，已经接近“建设科技先导型现代商业银行”的金字塔顶尖。     

Rethinking tomorrow's cities: Emerging issues on city foresight

Rethinking tomorrow's cities now, builds our capacity to act with foresight and create resilient and liveable places. I use methods from the futures studies field, particularly macrohistory, to provoke our current patterns of city making. From macrohistory, the grand patterns of social change reveal some of the key systems dynamics influencing the rise and fall of cities in civilisation. The key urban system dynamics in the broadest sense provide a meta-framework of emerging issues shaping new urban challenges or opportunities for our towns and cities. The hope drawn from the past and present is to focus our urban interventions in the key areas to create future cities of wonder and purpose. The implications of the emerging issues (critical focus areas of city foresight) that arise from the macrohistorical analysis are discussed using the case study of the Maroochy 2025 community visioning project.2025 is a community driven project to develop shared visions and action plans for the Maroochy Shire¹ towards the year 2025, for the purpose of creating an empowering and community owned response to the challenges facing them locally and globally.     

The impact of state and foreign ownership on banking risk: Evidence from the MENA countries

This paper investigates the impact of foreign and state ownership on banking risk. Panel data regression analysis is applied to a sample of 171 commercial banks from the MENA region during the 2006–2012 period. Two-stage least-squares analysis is conducted. Our results show that State ownership encourages banks to take more risks while foreign ownership reduces risk-taking. In addition, state-owned banks tend to increase capital adequacy ratio to hedge against high level of risk. Our finding also indicates that all categories of shareholders take a prudent attitude that influences risk reduction after the 2008 crisis.     

How foresight creates unforeseen futures: the role of doubting

This paper defines foresight as being a mental model about the future and considers the role of foresight in shaping actions and events reflected in imperious, heroic, tragic and chaotic futures (defined within the paper). The paper contends that success in foresight is not about acquiring knowledge or using it to build pictures about the future. Rather, it is the expectations that come with such processes that cause organisational closure, and thus chaotic and tragic futures. The argument is made that firms need to doubt much more than they do.Two processes of doubting are described: the first (single loop doubting) shows how differences between expectations and perception cause doubt that (whenever the underlying mental model is sufficiently plastic) is accommodated by social processes without change. The second process, called double loop doubting, is based on genuine attempts to refute, rather than confirm, mental models about the future. The contention is that such processes would lower expectations and certainty, thereby opening the organisation and enabling mental models to be more accurate.

“I fear there can be no possible doubt about the matter”.

Jack in The Importance of Being Ernest, Oscar Wilde     

Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight

Foresight processes and activities are confronted with the task of making sense of the present, in particular by interpreting weak signals of change in the organizational environment. Although trends are considered to be important drivers of environmental discontinuities which may lead to strategic surprises, there is no operationalization from a strategic point of view. In this paper we are going to conceptualize trends as (socio-cultural) innovations. This leads to important implications. If the nature of innovation is taken seriously, then strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects, invention and diffusion. First, we are going to present a framework for identifying the invention aspect of a trend (i.e., “the new”) which is based on the fact that “the new” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries. Second, we are going to operationalize the diffusion of “the new” as a threefold process of normalization - i.e., an unusual practice becomes social convention. Taken together, these two aspects provide a theoretical link between trends and market creation. In addition, by relating the above operationalizations to an entrepreneurial strategy-making framework, strategic issue diagnosis can be improved and more seamlessly linked to strategy formulation.