Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making

Already two decades ago strategy literature started a discussion on weak signals (H.I. Ansoff, Implanting Strategic Management, Prentice-Hall International, Englewood-Cliffs, NJ, 1984). Currently the weak signals approach is experiencing a renaissance in strategic planning but now either in the context of strategic flexibility or peripheral vision. In this paper we aim, firstly, to present theories describing filters that a weak signal has to pass in the strategy-creation process. Secondly, we present a construction for information filters in the strategy process and prove that the nature of objectives and the method used in environment scanning have a major impact on the outcome. Thirdly, we introduce an application that opens filters for weak signals in the strategy process and thus provides the organization with an opportunity for pro-active decision-making.     

Evolution of futures studies

This article discusses the evolution of futures studies. The article starts with an evaluation of the different rival taxonomies and definitions for futures studies, and proceeds to discuss the very concept of paradigm. Are there paradigms in this discipline? If we think there are, what kind of arguments can we use to define those? I argue that there have been two paradigms in the evolution of futures studies so far, and there are signs of emergence of a new one. Both of the existing paradigms have had many rival macro-level methodological approaches, ontological and epistemological branches, and phases of evolution. The first paradigm is the age-old prediction tradition that combines thinking about the future into mystic explanations. This line of thinking bases its argument on the deterministic future and effects of the world of spirits. The second paradigm was basically started in the U.S. military after World War II. This modern line of thinking bases its argument on indeterministic futures, probabilities, aim to control and plan, modelling and systems thinking, and the effects of external trends. The new emerging paradigm may base its line of thinking on disconnecting from the western control based technical thinking, and accepting internal dynamic fluctuations, paradoxes and dialectic thinking.     

Design museum futures: Catalysts for education

Taking the ambitious educational programmes and global collecting practices of 19th century industrial arts museums as case studies, this article analyses the role of design in shaping the future. The article examines the historical dynamics behind the construction of futures knowledge and futures expertise on the one hand, and current futures construction within design museum collections on the other. It tests strategic drivers and trends for the imagination and design of futures in the museum within the context of wider debates about the value of museums as sites of transdisciplinary practical learning. In this way the article also considers how cultural value is articulated through changing concepts of time and temporality embodied in material form. The final section examines the potential for social agency and activism within the design museum to foster critical reflection on the methods by which social institutions signal and shape directions of change. The article finds that in providing tools for the sharing as well as shaping of visions of the future, wider debates about the designed object in the museum have much to contribute to futures agency and literacy across disciplinary and professional boundaries.     

Evolution of controversial fields: lessons from the past for futures

Some intriguing analogies are drawn between futures studies today and the social sciences in their emergent period. Similar career trajectories are posited for such controversial fields of research, with their novel approaches in terms of claims advanced, and social reactions. The analogies cover the growth of professionalism, the development of internal self-criticism, and increasingly arbitrary boundaries. A distinction is made between English-speaking and Continental futures.     

University education in futures studies: A Mark III survey

Following two earlier analyses (1970 and 1972), the Mark III survey of 1974 explores the extent and quality of university education in disciplines identifiable as future-oriented. The initial research revealed a somewhat stagnant situation. There is a decline in systematic futures courses at the university level, while there is now a stronger trend towards “futurisation” of conventional subjects on one hand, and to practice-oriented non-university educational activities on the other. The most significant developments appeared in long-range planning, policy studies and peace research. Representation of methodologies shows systems research as perhaps the most, and social sciences as a less important contributor. Identification of “futurism” and clarification of the concept remains the dominant problem.     

Tactical allocation in commodity futures markets: Combining momentum and term structure signals

This paper examines the combined role of momentum and term structure signals for the design of profitable trading strategies in commodity futures markets. With significant annualized alphas of 10.14% and 12.66%, respectively, the momentum and term structure strategies appear profitable when implemented individually. With an abnormal return of 21.02%, our double-sort strategy that exploits both momentum and term structure signals clearly outperforms the single-sort strategies. This double-sort strategy can additionally be utilized as a portfolio diversification tool. The abnormal performance of the combined portfolios cannot be explained by a lack of liquidity, data mining or transaction costs.     

From pit to electronic trading: Impact on price volatility of U.S. Treasury futures

This paper investigates the dynamics of price volatility and trading volume of 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures within the context of transition from pit to electronic trading. The analysis is conducted over four discernible phases of futures trading evolution: the pit-only phase, the leap to electronic trading, and the electronic trading dominant phase, which is divided further into two periods, the before and after the financial crisis of 2007/2009. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with in-mean conditional variance and generalized error distribution parameterization (GARCH-M-GED) tests are conducted to examine the conditional volatility of total returns index as a function of trading volume. The empirical results show a consistently negative relationship between the trading volume and price volatility for all four analyzed phases. They also show decreasing leptokurtosis (except for the direct effects of the recent crisis), continuously high persistency in volatility, as well as a weakening impact of unexpected ARCH-type shocks during the most recent analyzed period. Overall, the shift to electronic trading entails a substantial increase in trading volume, but not in price volatility of Treasury futures.     

从绿色信贷到赤道原则:公司社会责任演化的视角

作为中国环境经济制度和公司社会责任思想建设的切入点，绿色信贷能否成功走向赤道原则这个商业金融组织的社会责任基准，从“狭义的公司社会责任概念→公司社会回应→公司社会表现→相关利益者理论→公司公民”的演化路线，可以得到清晰的答案和深刻启示。     

From transformative outcome based education to blended learning

This paper examines the transformative effects of outcome based education within the process of a music curriculum review. Effective collaborative engagements among team members resulted in strengthened curricula with evidence of a reflective implementation of outcome focused course delivery. The study further identified challenges faced by faculty members in adapting the reviewed curricula to suit online learning. It ascertained the levels of faculty understanding as to what was ‘blended learning’ and their preparedness in modifying various conventional courses to be offered under a blended learning mode. Emergent issues were analysed. A User-Learner Centred Design model was created to facilitate programme transformation and outcome-based scenario planning for future development of quality blended learning curricula.     

Integral Futures: An approach to futures inquiry

This paper sketches the broad outlines of the philosophical and methodological foundations of an emerging approach to inquiry—‘integral inquiry’—and how this form of inquiry may be applied to futures studies, leading to an approach which has come to be called ‘Integral Futures’.     

Postnormal network futures: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

Sardar's “Welcome to Postnormal Times” describes the chaotic, contradictory and uncertain climate today, and analyses the failure of progress, modernisation or efficiency to provide ethical, political or even trustworthy economic solutions to the instability of the present. Missing in his analysis is the role of knowledge, especially as it is migrating from individuals to technical networks. This paper argues that recent developments in the networking of knowledge point towards a new constellation in which networks are emerging as major powers alongside the nation and the market, the two pillars of global political economy in the 20th and early 21st century. It responds to Sardar's challenge to imagine the future by imagining the political consequences of recognising non-human agencies as political actors.     

Dreams and expectations: Young people's expected and preferred futures and their significance for education

A recent Australian study sought to obtain a better understanding of what young people expect and want of their country in 2010, and to assess the value of scenarios as an investigative tool. The study had two components: a series of eight scenario-development workshops involving a total of 150 young people, most aged between 15 and 24 and from a variety of backgrounds; and a national opinion poll of 800 Australians in this age group. The study suggests there is a wide gap between young Australians' expected and preferred futures. Most do not expect life to be better in 2010, either nationally or globally, but foresee a continuation, and even worsening, of today's problems. Their dreams for Australia are of a society that places less emphasis on the individual, material wealth and competition, and more on community and family, the environment and cooperation.     

Futures signals sense-making framework (FSSF): A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of information

This article introduces future signals sense-making framework (FSSF), an alternative philosophy towards weak signals, emerging issues, drivers, and trends, that is in contrast to the traditional single signal or path extrapolation approach. The philosophy of FSSF is based on the principles of environmental scanning and pattern management, which state that if there is a grand transformation process on the way or if there is a new emerging pattern or phenomenon, such a process will certainly be reflected in many different ways. Therefore, in this philosophy, futures knowledge is believed to be fragmented between various simultaneous and overlapping sources. Here, a researcher's task is to carry out a sufficient environmental scanning process and to cluster and sense how to create the emerging future through a pattern management process where FSSF plays a role as the first start-up tool. Alternatively, FSSF can also be used as a general knowledge management and sense-making tool for any kind of analyses.     

从“居养”到“参与”：中国残疾人社会保护政策的演变

本文考察了中国残疾人社会保护政策的发展历史,将其概括为两个发展阶段,即“居养”阶段和“参与”阶段。居养政策的理论基础是人道主义和仁政,以院舍收养作为残疾人社会保护的主要方式,导致残疾人的社会隔离;权利模式的理论出发点是平等和权利,通过构建权利体系保障残疾人的平等参与权,从而实现残疾人的社会回归。目前,中国残疾人社会保护正从“居养”政策向权利政策转向。     

Considerations on the Evolution of the National Budget Functions: From Internal Relevance to External Value

The paper is concerned with the interrelationship between the national budget, the role of the State in the economy and the public financial situation existing during different historical periods beginning with the unification of Italy. The paper examines the functions of the national budget during the Liberal, Corporatist and Republican periods, and how these have changed as a result of institutional changes, and developments in the socio-economic situation which have influenced economic policy. We focus particularly on the public accountancy reform of 1923-1924 which, in combination with administrative reform, contained some important innovations. The system that emerged is found to have been clearly connected with that of the previous period, the innovations being based on the tenets of liberal ideology and the efficiency of the public administration. In this context the centralisation of the General Accounting Office in 1923 is seen as the result of actions begun during an earlier period. On the other hand, the national budget continued to carry out the functions of regulating the relationship between the various sections of the Government. Nevertheless, although the necessity was felt at this time to control the financial flows, it is only with the advent of the Republican State that the budget takes on an instrumental role in influencing the economy. During the Republican period, the relationship between the institutions and the economy changed, with public finance becoming the hub of economic development and the national budget developing a new function, with the use of government spending for macroeconomic purposes.     

The future only arrives when things look dangerous: Reflections on futures education in the UK

This article takes the form of a personal reflection on the struggle to establish futures education in the UK school curriculum. After promising beginnings in the 1980s under the aegis of global educators the 1990s saw a retrenchment in order to create a research base and to develop appropriate support materials for teachers. Whilst until recently not understood or accepted by most mainstream educators a futures perspective is now beginning to be included in the work of geographical educators. In particular some aspects of futures thinking are also becoming enshrined in initiatives relating to education for sustainability. Encouraging teachers to develop a futures perspective in their own curriculum area may be a more profitable way forward than trying to promote futures education as a separate entity. Dominant neoliberal ideology and its influence on education will always make it difficult to challenge mainstream views of the future.