Some reflections on different disability models

Abstract

As a retired actuary of life and health insurance the author has wished to summarize his experience and reflections about different systems of disability insurance. He wants to show how the premium technique of the “classic” Hamza process presented in 1900 as a model of the invalidity insurance technique without any element of recovery can be described for an active person by three alternative formulas of expected value of a disability indemnity. His of interest to observe that the second of these formulas can be applied to the technique of sickness insurance based on the probability of being sick. This technique is also used in British and Norwegian long term disability insurance. The third formula leads after modification to the Swedish sickness annuity technique and, further, to the technique of basic continuance tables used in U.S.A. In describing the classic process the author has used the discontinuous approach, but otherwise the continuous approach with integrals instead of sums has been preferred.

Methods of calculating the premium for “waiver of premium” have in this paper only been touched upon as a result of a modification of the sickness annuity technique. It has been found necessary to refrain from the opportunity to illustrate the interesting development of the invalidity technique according to Schoenbaum and later to Simonsen who introduced a series of transition probabilities between different states of activity and disablement.     

对我国股市流动性问题的几点思考

本文提出换手率指标不能用来衡量股市流动性,并按国际市场和学术界对流动性的界定对我国股市流动性进行了分析,得出我国股市流动性在国际上处于较低水平;并分析了造成这种状况的原因主要有市场结构、交易机制和监管环境等方面;最后提出了改善我国股市流动性的一些对策。     

对后疫情时代互联网金融发展机遇的几点思考

2020年初,一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情迅速席卷了全国各地,全社会都动员起来积极抗疫。2月24日,工商银行传达学习了习近平总书记在统筹推进新冠肺炎疫情防控和经济社会发展工作部署会议上的重要讲话精神,坚决把思想和行动统一到党中央对疫情防控工作的判断和部署上来,在做好新冠肺炎疫情防控的同时,开辟绿色通道,提升服务效率,全力做好相关金融服务。在新冠肺炎疫情的这场大考中,银行机构和证券、保险、支付等互联网金融企业或主动或被动地交出了答卷.     

Syndication--the emerging model for business in the Internet era

Syndication has long been a fundamental organizing principle in the entertainment world, but it's been rare elsewhere in business. The fixed physical assets and slow-moving information that characterized the industrial economy made it difficult, if not impossible, to create the kind of fluid networks that are essential for syndication. But with the rise of the information economy, flexible business networks are not only becoming possible, they're becoming essential. As a result, syndication is moving from business's periphery to its center. Within a syndication network there are three roles that businesses can play. Originators create original content, which encompasses everything from entertainment programming to products to business processes. Syndicators package that content, often integrating it with content from other originators. Distributors deliver the content to consumers. A company can play a single role, or it can play two or three roles simultaneously. Syndication requires businesses to rethink their strategies and relationships in radical ways. Because a company's success hinges on its connections to other companies, it can no longer view its core capabilities as secrets to protect. Instead, it needs to see them as products to sell. FedEx, for example, is succeeding by distributing its sophisticated package-tracking capability to other companies on the Net. Syndication promises to change the nature of business. As this new way of doing business takes hold, companies may look the same as before to their customers, but behind the scenes they will be in constant flux, melding with one another in ever-changing, self-organizing networks.     

Corporate reporting on the Internet and the expectations gap: new face of an old problem

While the practice of Internet financial reporting (IFR) has evolved rapidly, research has questioned the corresponding responsiveness of the auditing profession. This study investigates the existence and nature of an expectations gap that may have arisen in relation to the auditor's role and responsibilities with respect to IFR. Based on a questionnaire survey in New Zealand, results confirm the existence of an expectations gap between auditors and stakeholder groups. Specific responsibilities contributing to deficient performance, deficient standards, and unreasonable expectations components of this gap are identified. The principal pronouncement dealing with auditors’ relevant responsibilities in New Zealand is AGS 1003 Audit Issues Relating to the Electronic Presentation of Financial Statements and Related Auditor's Reports. AGS 1003 discusses, inter alia, the auditor's role and responsibilities in relation to electronic financial statements before and after online publication, and the implications of IFR for the auditor's report and other audit communications. The study argues that the authoritative status of such guidance statements may contribute to a perpetuation of the gap. Furthermore, the profession is urged to avoid ‘standard’ professional responses to the issues, which risk being labelled insufficient and/or strategically motivated. The findings have policy implications for standard-setters internationally.     

通过互联网送达税务文书刍议

随着电子计算机技术和国际互联网业务迅速发展并普及到日常交流中,通信方式不仅只局限于传统的邮件,通过电子邮件和电子公告系统(BBS)传送信息日趋普遍.互联网技术的高速发展,使税务系统已具备通过互联网利用电子邮件、电子公告形式送达税务文书的物质条件.如何增强在具体实践中的可操作性,本文就此略谈拙见,以期抛砖引玉.     

金融科技时代加强商业银行内部审计工作的几点建议

作为金融体系的重要组成部分,银行是经营风险的特殊主体,当前形势下防控金融风险的重要性、守住不发生系统性风险的底线被反复强调,然而,商业银行在风险防控工作履职的定位意识、关键业务流程设计的合理性、内部控制制度的执行力等三方面仍然存在不足,在金融科技时代下引发的风险将被无限放大。     

试论我国网络银行的发展

论文指出了我国网络银行发展面临的不利条件和有利条件,剖析了我国网络银行存在的问题,并提出了发展我国网络银行的若干策略.     

Prospective philosophy and methods Some reflections on their preliminary application to medical education

Central to the thinking of the French philosopher and educator Gaston Berger was that education and planning are major forces for dealing with the impact of science and technology on society. The application of such a prospective approach is particularly appropriate for the education of medical students. Three beliefs as to the essential functions of the university support this conviction. The university should educate the mind; it should promote an understanding of the means and goals appropriate to a prospective education; and it should provide an evaluation of a preliminary experimental application of these concepts.     

Black-market exchange-rate expectations and the domestic demand for money: Some empirical results

This paper analyzes the effects of expectations about future exchange-rate adjustments on the demand for money. These effects are studied empirically for the case of countries which have imposed foreign-exchange restrictions. The results obtained for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia indicate that the demand for money is significantly reduced when expectations of black-market depreciation intensify; and that when this variable (for which the proxy used is the divergence of the black-market exchange rate from purchasing power parity) is omitted from the demand-for-money function, the response of the demand for money to changes in the expected rate of domestic inflation tends to be overestimated.     

物联网工程专业课程体系构建研究

物联网工程专业作为应用型本科专业,在高等教育行业领域内应建立一个新的理念和体系,其教育体系的完善和后备力量的培养是其中最重要的环节.在本科层次的物联网专业建设过程中,课程体系的构建要针对应用型本科的特点,在专业基础和核心课程上体现出该专业的技术需求特征,便于更好满足物联网专业课程体系建设规范化的要求.     

A volatility model based on adaptive expectations: An improvement on the rational expectations model

Investment expectations affect stock price volatility, making asset pricing more difficult. Correctly capturing investment expectations can help alleviate this problem. In this paper, we analyze the rational expectations properties of existing volatility models. Second, we explore a volatility model based on adaptive expectations by using mathematical methods and the applicable conditions and continuity feature of the adaptive expectations volatility model. Third, under the assumption of adaptive expectations, we construct adaptive expectations GARCH (ADGARCH) and LSTM-ADGARCH models. Using daily trading data from the Shanghai stock index and SPX500 for the period 2015–2021, we find that the volatility model based on adaptive expectations has more explanatory power than one based on rational expectations.     

Wendell Bell, The Democratic Revolution in the West Indies: Some reflections on the past, present, and future

The article looks at Professor Bell's early and seminal work in the West Indies and his attempt to interrogate the process of what he (Bell) labels as The Democratic Revolution in the West Indies. Bell, it is argued, uses theoretical paradigms of the social sciences to analyze how ideas from the enlightenment of the eighteenth century, to wit the process of spreading equality (writ large), and egalitarianism, can be effectuated in the new and small nation-states of the West Indies. It is argued, that this mode of inquiry was indeed the early beginning of, and laid the foundations for, Bell's futurist studies and pursuits currently, and, that by examining the findings, it can be seen if they are now borne out for these countries and, if not, the prospects for any recovery in the future. Finally, the author contends that, although the Democratic Revolution has been somewhat stymied, the earlier thrust for, and focus on, increased education has had the unintended effect of motivating fleeing migratory nationals and their progeny, to seek and demonstrate their equality through education in the core host democracies.     

基于有限理性的互联网金融参与主体的行为分析--以互联网理财为例

互联网金融的兴起展现了强大的生命力。一方面,它让人们感受到了科技带给金融的深刻变革;另一方面,它也对我国传统金融造成了巨大的冲击。未来互联网金融如何发展,是一个值得思考的问题。本文首先介绍了互联网金融的概念、常见业务模式,接着以互联网理财为例,在各参与主体有限理性的假设下,运用进化博弈理论分别对金融消费者是否选择互联网理财产品的稳定策略、互联网金融企业和银行之间的稳定均衡策略进行分析,以期能够揭示互联网金融各参与主体的行为逻辑,预见互联网金融发展的趋势,为我国互联网金融的科学发展提供理论支持。     

IPO Pricing in the Dot-com Bubble

IPO underpricing reached astronomical levels during 1999 and 2000. We show that the regime shift in initial returns and other elements of pricing behavior can be at least partially accounted for by marked changes in pre-IPO ownership structure and insider selling behavior over the period, which reduced key decision makers' incentives to control underpricing. After controlling for these changes, the difference in underpricing between 1999 and 2000 and the preceding three years is much reduced. Our results suggest that it was firm characteristics that were unique during the "dot-com bubble" and that pricing behavior followed from incentives created by these characteristics.     

浅析中国股市泡沫问题

我国股市长期以来整体股价一直偏高,存在很大泡沫成分,始于2001年的下跌,是一种泡沫破裂后价格本身价值的回归,这种回归是理性的,不应干预,并且我国应采取一系列措施,避免股市再次泡沫泛滥,以保证股市的健康发展。     

Status building: Some reflections on the architectural history of Chartered Accountants' Hall, London, 1889–1893

This paper examines the architectural history of Chartered Accountants' Hall, London, from the point of view of its use by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales to confirm and enhance its professional status in the early phase of its existence. Drawing on sociology of the professions literature, the study links the hall with the emergence of the professional headquarters of the main legal and medical bodies on which the Institute of Chartered Accountants based much of its behaviour. A loose model for such buildings is utilized as a framework within which relevant aspects of the detailed history of Chartered Accountants' Hall are elaborated.     

中国房地产泡沫实证分析

随着当今房地产价格的不断上升,人们对房地产泡沫问题的讨论也日渐升温,但对当今房地产是否存在泡沫众说纷纭;经济学术界以往也对房地产泡沫问题有过大量研究,主要是根据房地产的数据与宏观经济的一些比较,而得到房地产是否产生泡沫,本文通过对世界和中国的具体数据和更微观层次的分析,得到房地产泡沫的具体模型,对房地产的升温具有更佳的警示作用.