The role for competition policy in economic development: the South African experience

Competition policy is part of the new international orthodoxy in economic policy and, at the same time, was viewed in South Africa as a crucial element of economic transformation. This article reviews the role of competition policy in economic development and the experiences of developing countries such as Brazil and South Korea. It then assesses the effects of competition policy in South Africa after 1994, with the main focus being on the performance of the new competition institutions established in 1999. The case of the steel industry is used to assess the approach and impact of the institutions in a concentrated sector that has simultaneously undergone processes of liberalisation and domestic consolidation.     

The growth and decline of import substitution in Brazil — revisited

Of all developing economies, Brazil in the early 1960s represented the most spectacular case of import substitution (IS) which, it was thought, had reached its final or ‘declining’ phases. This paper re-examines the theories of that period by applying econometric techniques to input-output and extended time series data.We trace the progress and regression of IS through different circuits and find the process to be reversible. Second, we find a dialectical relationship between the creation of inter-industry linkages and their destruction through leakages which undermine IS. Third, we identify a dialectical relationship between the ‘substitution of imports’ and the ‘importation of substitutes’, that is, the continual invasion of new imports which displace local products and create the need for IS, such as wheat substituting for tropical foods, plastics for woods and synthetic fibres for cotton.     

The declining relative economic status of black families

Data are presented on black family income and wealth that run counter to the claims that blacks have made substantial economic progress in recent years. The evidence reveals that not only has there been little in the way of real, sustained advances but that what few gains have been made are starting to erode.     

Was 19th century British growth steam-powered?: the climacteric revisited

This paper establishes that there are serious problems with the hypothesis that the Victorian climacteric was driven by the decline phase of steam as a General Purpose Technology. This is primarily because steam’s contribution to industrial output and labour productivity growth was stronger after 1870 than before and that the non-steam-intensive sectors exhibited an inverted U-shape in trend output growth through the 19th century, experiencing a marked slowdown between 1830 and the 1870s. Seeking to base an account of 19th century British growth primarily on the implications of steam is thus misconceived.     

The role of creative innovation in economic growth: Some international comparisons

For many countries, export-driven policies have thus far produced dramatic increases in real per capita income. At the same time, sustainable growth requires that technological innovation proceed at comparable rates if mutual gains from globalization are to be realized. In this paper, we derive a measure of innovation and test the extent to which institutional policy choices enhance or delay its diffusion. To do so we use a panel regression model, with data on a sample of 103 countries in different geographic regions for the 1980–2005 period. Our findings provide empirical evidence of the positive role of creative innovation in economic growth, and from which we derive several basic policy conclusions.     

International comparisons of educational and economic indicators, revisited

Educational planning today, especially in developing countries, is still largely based on international comparisons of the relationship between educational and economic performance indicators in more advanced countries. In this paper we examine cross-sectional data one decade apart for a large number of countries and conclude that this relationship is very weak. In particular, enrolments in vocational schools and the number of doctors in the population, two indicators often mentioned in educational plans, vary widely from one country to another and exhibit low correlations with the other variables examined. The results of our analysis suggest caution in the use of international comparisons for analytical purposes, although it is accepted that such comparisons are difficult to resist on political grounds.     

British economic growth: The paradox of the 1880s and the timing of the climacteric

Alternative measures of British gross domestic product show marked discrepancies before 1914. Bowley's wage income estimates appear partly responsible. A revised average wage series, which incorporates service-sector wages and attaches less weight to coal miners, and a modified measure of the wage-earning population provide the basis for new gross domestic product estimates. These series, summarized by least squares, show lower growth in the 1880s and faster growth after 1907. Growth between 1873 and 1896 appears significantly below trend, supporting the idea of British Great Depression. Faster growth after 1907 militates against an Edwardian climacteric.     

Debt and development: The role of foreign capital in economic growth

Capital flows, whether between individuals or nations, are dominated by a two- fold paradox. Borrowers are initially primarily interested in obtaining sufficient funds for their needs, but once they have obtained a loan, their indebtedness becomes their principal concern. While a loan is being negotiated the lenders usually have the upper hand, but once it is made, they become dependent on the borrowers for repayment with interest. Their power to withhold future loans becomes their only real measure of control. Borrowing and lending has costs and benefits, and these balance out only in exceptional cases for both the borrowing and lending countries and the principal social groups within them. The debate about the impact of international capital flows accordingly has a long history. This paper begins with a historical perspective, and then reviews the principal characteristics of capital flows to developing countries since the 1950s. A discussion of the impact of capital flows on development, with a particular emphasis on trends in developing country indebtedness, follows. A brief examination of borrowing and debt management issues for borrowers, lenders and the international community concludes the paper.     

The decline of economic complementarity? Australia and Britain 1945—1952

At the end of the Second World War, Australia implemented a development program designed to improve the nation's defence capabilities through a rapid increase in population and the growth of manufacturing industry. These plans were contrary to the vision of `complementarity' promoted by the United Kingdom, in which the British economy would export manufactured goods to other members of the Commonwealth in return for primary products. Despite British objections, the Chifley government persevered in its development policy although Australia did control the level and origin of its imports to fit the availability of dollars within the Sterling Area. In the early 1950s, however, the Menzies government attacked the autarchic policies of the Sterling Area, first by arranging to borrow dollars directly from the World Bank, and later by calling for an abandonment of the inward focus of the Sterling Area.     

引以为戒——从金融扩张到经济强权的衰败

从阿姆斯特丹到伦敦再到纽约,都留给我们一个疑问：为什么每当一个世界金融中心建成的时候,其所在国家的实力也将进入由强盛转向衰败？