3D,SF and the future

This article assesses the use of ‘science fiction’ (SF) in visioning or prototyping the potential economic and social consequences of so-called 3D printing. What is becoming clear to many commentators as well as science fiction writers is how rapid prototyping, or 3D printing more generally, could permit many final objects to be made near to or even by consumers on just-in-time ‘printing’ machines. This revolution in making would have many implications for the economy-and-society in the future by seriously augmenting, or possibly replacing, current systems of manufactured production, long-distance transportation and consumption. These 3D technologies have featured in SF works, including Neal Stephenson's The Diamond Age, Ian McDonald's Brasyl, Charles Stross's Rule 34 and Cory Doctorow's Makers. The article reports on current research seeking to understand the implications of what may be a major new sociotechnical system in the making. Some creative uses of SF are presented in a professional workshop setting. As well the article documents the use of SF as a methodological prototype in forecasting alternative scenarios of the future. SF prototyping could be a powerful tool in the social science repertoire when put into action in forecasting possible technology and business futures.     

Why is management a cliché?

This article introduces the term demotics of management by asking why so much management literature reads like a cliché. Typically this question has been approached by seeing the cliché as strategic. This article instead views the cliché as symptomatic. It marks a growing problem—how can management track labor out of the workplace and into the realm of social reproduction, a realm that is increasingly, with the tendency of immaterial labor, directly productive. This problem has produced not only the explosion of popular management literature, particularly in the United States, in the last 20 years, but also what might be called a demotics of management. This term may be understood as the proliferation of places where labor-power might be found. But the term also names management’s growing limits when faced with the dispersion and intensification of what Marx called the social individual. Management cannot adequately measure the labor it finds, and therefore must resort to miraculating what it encounters, to use a concept from the collaboration of Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari. The crisis of measurement brought on by the growing dominance of what Marx named the General Intellect is a profound challenge not only to management but specifically to its recording-machine, accounting. With the mounting crisis in recording, the very frenzy of popular management discourse reveals more than ever the threat that social reproductive labor already possesses the sociality to value itself differently and independently. The demotics of management thus marks both the proliferation of management in daily life, but also the prior, or what C.L.R. James might have called the completed, organization of immaterial labor that management encounters. Left to repeat what is already completed management can only utter the cliché, however, manically. At the same time, the cliché in management literature does mark the accomplishment of the circuit of exchange value, as it has since Taylor, even as it hints at the possibility of the separation from capital of a mass intellectuality where socialized labor may come to account for itself.     

Economics, equity and sustainable development

As a fashionable catchword, ‘sustainable development’ has provoked a large but nebulous literature. In the interests of communication and relevance it is necessary to narrow down the various definitions that have been given and show how a revised conception of sustainable development can be integrated into practical decisionmaking. This article suggests one approach. Sustainable development is categorized by economic change subject to ‘constancy of the natural capital stock’—the stock of environmental assets is held constant while the economy is allowed whatever social goals are deemed appropriate. Such a rule, which has its own difficulties, accommodates the main concerns of the advocates of sustainability—equity between generations, equity within a generation, economic resilience to external shocks, and uncertainty about the functions and values of natural environments in social systems. It may also accommodate some of the concerns of the ‘deep ecology’ movement by respecting rights in nature.     

EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP IN ECONOMIC TRANSITIONS: THE CASE OF UNITED AIRLINES

This article argues that employee stock ownership transactions (ESOTs) may have decisive advantages in addressing the transition problems associated with significant economic change. Equity ownership by employees can increase value not only because of the better incentive alignment achieved by making employees major stockholders, but also because equity has special value in solving some of the bargaining (i.e., information) problems that can make it especially difficult to renegotiate the em-ployees' contracts with the firm in volatile economic environments. One important question raised by ESOTs is whether they produce a merely transitional organizational form or a relatively permanent form for managing economic change. Do they amount to simply a set of one-time adjustments of economic claims so that we should expect a reversion back to public shareholder ownership? Or do these transactions produce a durable organizational form that proves more effective in negotiating an ongoing series of transition problems? After a general analysis of the potential advantages of ESOTs in cases of economic transition, this article explores this question by examining one particularly interesting example, the recent employee acquisition of majority equity in United Air Lines. The parties in the UAL transaction, which can be traced to the transition shock of airline deregulation in 1978 and the series of competitive struggles that followed, contemplated employee ownership as more than a transitional device. The deal is structured to lock up employee stock in an ESOP and to provide strong employee governance rights for the next 20 years. One of the objectives of the ESOT was to catalyze a cultural change in UAL's operations so that the airline could become more competitive, not just through wage reductions but through operational efficiencies that would require a higher level of employee cooperation. The evidence to date suggests that UAL has become a more efficient competitor, but also that governance pressure from the employees where their economic interests are directly at stake is potentially destabilizing. The UAL case shows that adjustment to prosperity can raise problems almost as difficult as adjustment to economic adversity.     

Agglomeration and regional labour markets

Conclusion There is no such thing as ‘the labour market’. This term is usually used to describe a simplified combination of very different delimited markets, both regionally and in terms of employee qualifications. Different labour markets can develop quite differently. This insight was underlined by studies presented at the DIW Berlin workshop. Thus, the empirical studies are virtually unanimous in showing that those with higher qualifications benefit particularly from a concentration of economic activity. That investment in human capital is worthwhile particularly in regionally concentrated labour markets is, conversely, demonstrated by the theory. The workshop presentations have, nevertheless, also led to a large number of new questions. For example, the basis of each of the various countries’ experiences needs to be clarified. Among the most important tasks to be solved is undoubtedly also the quantification of the influence emanating from the different agglomeration factors. Can economic policy lessons be learned from the workshop contributions? The heterogeneity of labour markets, as has become evident from the different presentations, suggests that labour market policy would be ill advised to rely solely on an overall observation of a labour market seen as an entity. In light of the questions raised, especially as a result of the empirical studies, it nevertheless seems premature to consider conclusions that go any further as anything more than hypotheses.     

From metaphoric litany text to scenarios—How to use metaphors in futures studies

Metaphor and metonymy belong to the key concepts of semiotics and general linguistics. As illustrations of scenarios, metaphors already have a long history in the futures studies, too. Metaphors were discussed in the CLA Reader 1.0¹ (Inayatullah ed., 2004) but the CLA Reader 2.0 edited by Inayatullah and Milojevic (2015) gives metaphors the central role in futures research² that they deserve. The article compares the approaches of semiotics and the CLA and suggests practical steps for the analysis of metaphoric futures oriented texts and their use in the construction of scenarios. Assuming that the litany is a text, metaphors may be present on all levels of the CLA: litany, systemic causes, worldview and myth/emotion. Metaphors are suitable even for the illustration of the CLA second level quantitative causal relations between variables. As an illustrating case study, we analyze a text that suggests the great future of the Northern Sea Route. The deconstruction of the litany results in two narratives or scenarios. They are constructed utilizing proverbs and other metaphoric sayings that get many citations on the Internet.     

Learning ahead of time: how evaluation of foresight may add to increased trust,organizational learning and future oriented policy and strategy

Evaluation of futures research (foresight) consists of three elements: quality, success, and impact of a study. Futures research ought to be methodologically and professionally sound, should to a certain extent be accurate, and should have a degree of impact on strategic decision making and policy-making. However, in the case of futures studies, the one does not automatically lead to the other. Quality of method does not ensure success, just as quality and success do not guarantee impact. This article explores the new paths for understanding evaluating of futures studies that are provided by the various articles in this special issue and sets out an agenda for next steps with regard to evaluation of futures research. The more structural and systematic evaluation can result in an increased level of trust in futures research, which may in turn lead to more future oriented strategy, policy and decision making. Therefore, evaluation should be seen as more than a burden of accountability – albeit important as accountability is – but as an investment in the credibility and impact of the profession. It may set in motion a cycle of mutual learning that will not only improve the capacity of futures-researchers but will also enhance the capacity and likeliness of decision-makers to apply insight from futures research.     

Semi-rational expectations and exchange-rate dynamics

The Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) asserts that, on average, the economic agents are accurate in predicting future economic developments. The paper demonstrates, however, that in a world of costly information, individual rationality may result in consistent and persistent forecasting biases. A distinction is drawn between perfect foresight or efficient forecasting—which is consistent with the REH—and myopic perfect foresight—which is the profit maximizing, and thus the rational one from an individualistic point of view, even though the latter may result in persistently biased forecasting. These concepts are illustrated in a model of exchange rate dynamics which introduces myopic or ‘semi’ rationality into Dornbusch's familiar model.     

Challenges of the market for initial coin offerings

This article analyzes the main problems and the solutions adopted in the market for Initial Coin Offerings (ICO), to anticipate the future of this market and determine implications for issuers, investors and regulators. ICOs represent an alternative and innovative financing solution that has experienced spectacular growth and notoriety in recent years. ICOs rely on Blockchain protocols and the ICO market is, therefore, characterized as decentralized, disintermediated and unregulated. Our results show that although the ICO market is innovative, it already displays many of the problems of traditional financial markets, and that these problems were at the genesis of the last financial crisis. Our analysis of the problems and solutions adopted shows a tension between what the Blockchain technology offers, and the problems associated with the financing of innovation. Considering the problems and solutions adopted, we no longer expect the ICO market to be characterized as disintermediated, unregulated or even decentralized in the near future. Furthermore, it is a real possibility that ICOs may end up being a progressor model eventually replaced by similar but more specialized financing models, some of which may already exist. With respect to the particular solutions of the ICO market, while some represent the realization of the potential of Blockchain, others such as forks have important Governance implications with the potential to create as many problems as the ones they address.     

Back to the future: The dream of a perpetuum mobile in the atomic society and the hydrogen economy

This article analyses a certain kind of society in which it is proclaimed that abundant energy can be used without any negative side effects. In such “utopias”, individual needs are described as unrestricted, and economic and technological change is said to be unlimited - as if the society were to have a perpetuum mobile at its command. The two examples connected with such expectations are “the atomic/nuclear society” and “the hydrogen economy”. Although these two utopias do differ, their many similarities are the focus of this article. They are similar in that they both invoke the dream of controlling a virtual perpetuum mobile, propose an expert/lay knowledge gap, downplay any risks involved, and rely on a public relations campaign to ensure the public’s collaboration with companies and politicians. I thus connect these two different utopias, discussing them as a part of the modern history of energy production and consumption. Making this connection clarifies some lessons for future energy planning, such as the need for reflection on and critical engagement with utopias, awareness of how a more participatory democratic process may be secured regarding energy issues, and the negative consequences if risk is described in solely economic terms.     

Excessive Financial Support,Real Estate Development and Macroeconomic Growth: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT

Using monthly panel data for China’s 30 provinces from 2007 to 2017, this article analyzes how level of financial support affects the interplay between real estate development and macroeconomic growth. Based on a threshold model, the results suggest that housing price increases substantially impede economic growth, but there is no significant threshold effect for the sample as a whole. On investigating regional cross-sectional variations, we found that local economic situation clearly impacts on this effect, with significant threshold effects detected in subsamples. While housing price may have positive influences on economic growth in the mid-west subgroup with appropriate financial support, more developed regions returned contrary results.     

世界大国增值税类型选择的规律——以美国、印度和欧盟为例

本文认为,世界各国尤其是国土面积最大的几个国家,在打破税制路径依赖的过程中,在认识和采纳消费型增值税过程中,面对国内维持现状的政治和经济因素的强大影响,增值税改革的决策是异常痛苦的过程。美国迄今为止未实行增值税,印度的增值税改革也未能在全国范围内铺开,欧盟作为增值税改革的成功实践者,其改革进程也充斥着政策妥协与延期实施。本文通过对世界大国增值税类型选择规律的分析,有助于我们重新认识中国增值税转型改革的路径和方案,权衡各方面利益,保证改革在曲折中前行。     

Starting with Universe: Buckminster Fuller's Design Science Now

Increasingly, decision makers seek to harness “big data” to guide choices in management and policy settings as well as in professions that manufacture, build, and innovate. Scholars examining this trend tend to diagnose it at once as techno positivist in its insistence on design yoked to quantifiable variables and computational modeling and, alternatively, as an imperative integral to realizing ecologically sustainable innovation. This article investigates this tension. It reflects on the role of futurists, designers, architects, urban planners, social scientists, and artists in interpreting and utilizing comprehensiveness as a design frame. Among nine experimental foresight workshops at the inaugural Emerge conference at Arizona State University, many focused on producing physical objects or media, one modeled and expanded upon a method pioneered by architect and polymath R. Buckminster Fuller. At a time when many of the capabilities to realize Fuller's specifications for big data have matured, I investigate whether comprehensive design as framed by Fuller's method shows promise as a trend enabling ecologically sustainable innovations. A historical look at Fuller's Design Science and the reflection on it in the Emerge workshop marks an opportunity to highlight and interpret the resurgence of comprehensive thinking in design while navigating the contradictions this orientation engenders.     

What lures cross-border venture capital inflows?

We investigate if economic factors drive gross and net cross-border venture capital inflows differently. Using a dataset of venture capital investments in European and North American countries from 2000 to 2008, we find that higher expected economic growth goes hand in hand with higher gross as well as net inflows, while higher market capitalization and a more favorable environment for venture capital intermediation entail higher gross inflows, but lower net inflows. The latter two findings may suggest that cross-border venture capital inflows partly compensate for potential limits in domestic venture capital supply. However, the findings may also reflect that venture capitalists’ locational decisions depend on the viability of capital markets.     

Earnings Quality in a Bubble Period: The Case of Construction Activity Firms in Spain

Housing bubbles may result in deep crises that affect all economic systems. This study investigates how the recent housing bubble in Spain has affected earnings quality during the whole bubble. To this end, we use data on mostly private construction activity firms in Spain, that is, construction and real estate companies. Earnings quality is studied by means of the predictive ability of earnings, conservatism, discretionary accruals and real earnings management. The results indicate a progressive decrease in the quality of financial reporting as the bubble develops, as managers try to conceal an underlying downward trend. We further show that earnings quality continues to decline even after the bubble bursts. Overall, this contribution, together with those of other environments, may suggest that, in a bubble context, we have to take care of firms’ earnings quality even some years before the crisis comes to the fore.     

Chronic time abuse

Anyone who has ever managed people who abuse time--whether they are chronic procrastinators or individuals who work obsessively to meet deadlines weeks in advance--knows how disruptive they can be to a business's morale and operating efficiency. But lessons in time management will have no impact on these employees. That's because real time abuse results from psychological conflict that neither a workshop nor a manager's cajoling can cure. Indeed, the time abuser's quarrel isn't even with time but rather with a brittle self-esteem and an unconscious fear of being evaluated and found wanting. This article describes four types of time abusers typically encountered in the workplace: Perfectionists are almost physically afraid of receiving feedback. Their work has to be "perfect," so they can increase their likelihood of earning a positive evaluation or at least avoid getting a negative one. Preemptives try to be in control by handing in work far earlier than they need to, making themselves unpopular and unavailable in the process. People pleasers commit to far too much work because they find it impossible to say no. Procrastinators make constant (and often reasonable-sounding) excuses to mask a fear of being found inadequate in their jobs. Managing these four types of people can be challenging, since time abusers respond differently from most other employees to criticism and approval. Praising a procrastinator when he is on time, for instance, will only exacerbate the problem, because he will fear that your expectations are even higher than before. In fact, some time abusers, like the perfectionist, may need professional treatment. This article will give you insight into why they are the way they are--and what can be done to help them manage their problems.     

Privatization and bank performance in developing countries

We examine the postprivatization performance of 81 banks from 22 developing countries. Our results suggest that: (i) On average, banks chosen for privatization have a lower economic efficiency, and a lower solvency than banks kept under government ownership. (ii) In the postprivatization period, profitability increases but, depending on the type of owner, efficiency, risk exposure and capitalization may worsen or improve. However, (iii) Over time, privatization yields significant improvements in economic efficiency and credit risk exposure. (iv) We also find that newly privatized banks that are controlled by local industrial groups become more exposed to credit risk and interest rate risk after privatization.     

The hegemony of the physical sciences: an exploration in complexity thinking

Traditionally the natural sciences, particularly physics, have been regarded as the Gatekeepers of Truth. As such the legitimacy of others forms of knowledge have been called into question, particularly those methods that characterise the ‘softer’ sciences, and even the arts. This paper begins with an extended discussion concerning the main features of a complex system, and the nature of the boundaries that emerge within such systems. Subsequent to this discussion, and by assuming that the Universe at some level can be well-described as a complex system, the paper explores the notion of ontology, or existence, from a complex systems perspective. It is argued that none of the traditional objects of science, or any objects from any discipline, formal or not, can be said to be real in any absolute sense although a substantial realism may be temporarily associated with them. The limitations of the natural sciences is discussed as well as the deep connection between the ‘hard’ and the ‘soft’ sciences. As a result of this complex systems analysis, an evolutionary philosophy referred to as quasi-‘critical pluralism’ is outlined, which is more sensitive to the demands of complexity than contemporary reductionistic approaches.     

Contingent Capital vs. Contingent Reverse Convertibles for Banks and Insurance Companies

During the credit and liquidity crisis in 2007 and 2008, banks found themselves largely unable to raise significant new equity quickly from parties other than sovereign wealth funds and governments. Some banks have thus recently begun to consider contingent capital as a means of pre‐arranging recapitalizations for future crises. Contingent capital is a type of put option that entitles a company to issue new securities on pre‐negotiated terms, often following the occurrence of one or more risk‐based triggering events. This article compares the economic merits of a new security—a “contingent reverse convertible” or CRC—against more traditional forms of contingent capital. In November 2009, Lloyds Banking Group plc issued “Enhanced Capital Notes”—subordinated debt that converts into common stock if Lloyds's core regulatory capital falls below 5% of its regulatory risk‐weigh ted assets. This CRC is not strictly speaking a form of contingent capital, but it does give banks the potential to recapitalize themselves quickly in the face of a crisis without having to turn to governments and taxpayers. One important limitation of CRCs is that because they do not generate new cash for a bank at the time of conversion, they are unlikely to stop a liquidity crisis once it has begun. More traditional contingent capital facilities, by contrast, do put cash in the hands of the issuer at the time the facility is drawn. But even for those inclined to use CRCs, it may be unrealistic to expect many other institutions to imitate the structure of the Lloyds offering. Persuading existing investors to take a more subordinated position in a bank's capital structure and write a put option to the bank on its own stock will be neither cheap nor easy. For this reason, the more traditional solutions used to date may have more success with banks, though arriving at a price that helps issuers and satisfies investors will be a challenge for those structures as well.     

Consumer-centered vs. job-centered health insurance

Most employees and their dependents in the United States have health insurance provided by the employer or labor-management health and welfare fund. In this system, employees and their families lose their health insurance when the breadwinner loses his or her job while, at the same time, a Medicaid beneficiary can lose Medicaid eligibility by getting a job, even a poorly paid one. Most health insurance pays the doctor on the basis of fee-for-service and the hospital on the basis of cost-reimbursement, rewarding both with more revenue for providing more and more costly services. The insured employee has little or no incentive to seek out a less costly provider. There are no rewards for economy in this system. It should be little wonder, then, that health care costs are out of control. There are alternative financing and delivery systems with built-in incentives to use resources economically, but, the author of this article asserts, their ability to compete and attract patients with their superior economic efficiency is blocked by many laws and government programs. The author believes that the most effective and acceptable way to get costs under control, and at the same time achieve universal coverage, would be through a system of fair economic competition. He discusses his Consumer Choice Health Plan proposal and describes how one of the main barriers to competition is today's system of job-linked health insurance.