Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning

Achieving a sustainable city requires long-term visions, integration and a system-oriented approach to addressing economic, environmental and social issues. This paper case studies a sustainable city planning project, Göteborg 2050, that uses the backcasting method. Visionary images of a long-term sustainable future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards sustainability. The paper describes a special kind of scenario methodology to build a future model for city development as a planning tool in facilitating a sustainable society. Backcasting in futures studies is widely discussed together with the comparison of three selected backcasting approaches, including Robinson's approach, The Natural Step Framework, and the Sustainable Technology Development approach. The purposes of this paper are to examine and discuss the use of the backcasting method within the Project Göteborg 2050, lessons learned and findings drawn from the experience. The case study shows that backcasting is an appropriate method in developing action plans for achieving urban sustainability. This work can be served as a model for sustainable city planning in Thailand as well as other countries.     

Environmental work profiles—A Visionary Life Cycle Analysis of a week at the office

This study aims to set up a method to analyse the variable office work profiles of jobs such as bankers, managers, specialists, researchers, etc. A worker's profile has to be assessed from the perspective of balanced sustainability including environmental, economic and social aspects. This paper starts with a presentation of a visionary methodology by which the environmental performance of present work profiles (taken from research reports and policy strategies by Finnish ministries) is assessed. Due to this all the work profiles presented in this paper are preliminary and only serve the purpose of illustrating the methodology. In a second step an extensive survey will be carried out in larger companies to create more detailed and empirical work profiles. At the same time, further effort has to be put into analysing alternative future work profiles and possibly to include economic and social aspects.In order to determine the environmental impact of office work, two normally independent methods are combined in this paper. A futures table is used to describe a number of alternative work profiles. This table matrix serves also as the basis to establish future scenarios of probable and possible working weeks. Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the tool used for figuring out the energy and material performance according to the modelled work profiles. When used together, the two methods comprise - as we call it with respect to future-oriented work scenarios - a Visionary Life Cycle Analysis (VLCA) of Office Work.The immediate results of this methodology demonstrate which working profiles are ecologically more sustainable than others. Weaknesses in behaviour patterns are detected and space for improvement is localised. In short: this methodology enables a company or single worker to analyse present work profiles and patterns and to create new visionary and sustainable work patterns. The final goal could be to provide a tool to document anybody's work profile and to show how - by changing certain habits - the individual's (environmental) performance could be improved.     

Renewable energy scenarios for major oil-producing nations: The case of Saudi Arabia

Renewable energy technologies are becoming internationally recognised as a vital contribution towards a sustainable energy future. Given that little research has examined the prospects of renewables from the perspective of major oil producers, this paper presents a set of renewable energy scenarios for the currently oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technqiue, and represent a joint creation of thirty-five highly informed individuals from diverse backgrounds.     

Using signposts in future studies: Lessons from the Justice for tomorrow project

Within the field of future studies, the scenario method is frequently applied. In the literature it is often stressed that it is important to know as soon as possible which of several scenarios is closest to the course of history as it actually unfolds. However, tracking scenarios via early warning mechanisms or signposts, is not a common practice. A standard methodology seems to be absent. Within the context of the Justice for tomorrow project, a scenario project of the Dutch ministry of Justice, we developed and applied a signpost method. We used this method to answer the question of how actual developments relate to the development paths depicted in the scenarios. In this paper we evaluate our approach. We explain what lessons can be learned regarding the use of signposts in future studies.     

Projecting scenarios for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific

The article describes further work to validate and assess a method of futures projection. The full methodology is shown in the context of a projection of plausible future trends for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific. A number of scenarios are developed and it is shown that the future for that region may be fraught with considerable problems. Finally, the methodology is assessed and suggestions for future work are made.     

Systemic scenarios of nanotechnology: Sustainable governance of emerging technologies

The economic and social promises of emerging technologies, especially nanotechnology, are assumed to be outstanding due to radical innovative features of materials, products and services. However, preliminary studies indicate that these very same features, e.g. high chemical reactivity, could entail adverse impacts on human health and the environment. Calls for appropriate regulation and societal formation of nanotechnology developments have been made, resulting in the concept of sustainable nanotechnology governance. The required anticipatory knowledge supporting these efforts seems so far to lack a sound methodological basis as well as an integrated perspective on nanotechnological applications. We present a scenario study on possible future developments of nanotechnology in Switzerland (reference year 2020). The study employed a formalized and functional scenario methodology, featuring system analysis, consistency analysis and transdisciplinary collaboration. The results indicate five different future constellations of contextual aspects, such as public awareness, profit potential and legal regulations, which are assumed to consistently correspond to five distinct market situations for nanotechnological applications. Going beyond the specific nanotechnology scenarios, the article argues for a rigorous scenario methodology as a valuable tool for the sustainable governance of emerging technologies.     

Mapping future through the study of the past and present: Estonian suburbia

One of the most visible features in Estonian settlement pattern has in the last decade been the emergence of residential developments, which are primarily situated amidst former agricultural landscapes. The planners and policy-makers often approach the urban sprawl as problematic and unprecedented in the history in this part of Europe and take the current situation as a baseline or Ground Zero in developing future scenarios. The objective of our research is to demonstrate that rapid change and adaptation have been the rule rather than an exception in Estonia (as elsewhere in the Western world) in the last century. Adopting a longer time perspective and advocating a relational rather than oppositional approach to rural and urban, nature and culture, as well as the insider and outsider perspectives and public and private spheres may be useful for understanding the spatial frame and historical context in drafting scenarios. Sketching personal narratives of place that have a focus on the choices made in the past and their physical expressions as indicated on the maps, future options and visions are illustrated. We explore the domestic entanglements of rural and urban in two specific locations in Estonia to find ways to loosen the hold of dualisms and outsider-insider perspectives and to construct a more relational approach. Shifting perspectives may help to demonstrate that the urban sprawl with its cultural and ecological consequences is a part of a continuing process not something negative or new. Mapping the personal and place history illustrates the variety and contributes to ceasing the possibilities instead of tackling the uncertainties as sustainability problems.     

Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study

Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, due to future uncertainties of climate change and complexity of the social–ecological systems to be managed. This paper investigates how desirable futures or normative scenarios approaches, in particular backcasting, can be used to develop more robust climate strategies in coastal regions. The paper develops a methodology in which participatory backcasting and adaptive management are combined, and its applicability is demonstrated for the Breede–Overberg coastal region in South Africa where a catchment management strategy has been developed. It is concluded that the methodology offers an adequate framework for developing and implementing long-term climate adaptation strategies and policies, including a transition management scheme for intermediate assessments.     

Understanding rural change—demography as a key to the future

The last decades have seen a rapidly growing interest in foresight methodology. Methods have been developed in corporate and governmental communication exercises often labelled technology foresight. In reality, these foresights have often drifted into processes of social change, since technological change is hard to foresee beyond what is already in the pipe-line. Forecasting of social change, however, must be based on solid knowledge about the mechanisms of continuity and change. Virtually nothing can be said about the future without relating to the past; foresights and futures studies are about revealing the hidden pulse of history. Hence, the answer to forecasting the future is empirical research within the social sciences.Demographic change has been recognised as a key determinant for explaining social change. Population changes are fairly predictable and the age transition can explain a wide range of socio-economic changes. For rural futures, demographic change is a key issue, since age structure in rural areas is often uneven and also unstable due to migration patterns. A number of policy related questions as well as research challenges are raised as a consequence.     

Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Report

In the last few decades, scenarios have provided a way of analysing the implications of alternative futures, especially as they might be impacted by new technologies. This has been no less true of ambient intelligence (AmI), which may be embedded everywhere in the not so distant future. Most of the scenarios developed by AmI enthusiasts have been rather ‘sunny’, showing how the new technologies promise to make our lives more efficient, enjoyable, productive, enriching. A European project, called Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI), deliberately developed ‘dark scenarios’ to highlight the threats to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by the new technologies. The SWAMI consortium also developed a methodological structure for deconstructing and analysing the dark scenarios. This paper takes that approach a step further by applying it to a cultural artefact, partly to test the validity, utility, applicability of the SWAMI methodology to a scenario not constructed by the consortium and partly to show how some cultural artefacts can be regarded as scenarios in their own right as well as warnings about future technologies. The cultural artefact chosen here was the Steven Spielberg film Minority Report, because it features so many AmI technologies and draws attention to the issues that have been the focus of the SWAMI project.     

新农村建设与农村金融创新研究

经过近多年的改革,我国农村金融服务水平有所提高,但还存在着一些不和谐因素,主要是农村金融服务的覆盖面低、农民贷款难、小额信贷发展不足、邮政储蓄资金严重外流、农村金融机构发展的可持续性差、政策性金融不到位等,这些问题已经成为了制约新农村建设的瓶颈。我们认为,解决当前农村金融服务中存在的上述问题,必须以中央农村金融改革的方针为指导,进一步解放思想,开阔思路,深化农村金融改革,加快农村金融创新,构建一个多种形式并存、合理分工、功能互补、适度竞争、可持续发展的多元的、竞争性、开放性的农村金融体系,采取全方位的政策措施来构筑社会主义新农村建设的强大金融基础。     

Towards sustainable households: a methodology for developing sustainable technological and social innovations

A high factor environmental efficiency improvement, towards a Factor 20 by 2050 AD — needed due to the assumed doubling of the world population combined with a fivefold increase of wealth per capita and a halving of the total global environmental burden — cannot be achieved through good housekeeping and technological innovation alone; any technological solutions will have to be combined with social innovations, in lifestyles and cultures. This paper describes the conclusions of the SusHouse (Strategies towards the Sustainable Household) Project that has been exploring possible socially and technologically innovative strategies for sustainable households. The Project has covered three household ‘functions’: Clothing Care, Shelter (Heating, Cooling and Lighting) and Food (Shopping, Cooking and Eating). These have been studied in five European countries (Germany, Hungary, Italy, The Netherlands and the UK). The methodology of the Project has involved stakeholder workshops, the construction of Design-Orienting Scenarios, environmental, economic and consumer assessment of the Scenarios and strategy formulation. The paper describes: (1) the methodology for devising design-orienting scenarios, with examples from the three functions; (2) the results of environmental, economic and consumer acceptability assessments of these scenarios; and (3) comments on how the methodology can be developed and applied.     

‘Exploratory landscape scenarios’ in the formulation of ‘landscape quality objectives’

The European Landscape Convention (ELC) calls for the definition of ‘landscape quality objectives’ (LQO) as “the formulation by the competent public authorities of the aspirations of the public with regard to the landscape features of their surroundings”. However, it is not yet defined how the integration of the visions of the public should be carried out. Notably in regions with poor participatory culture and in rural landscapes abandoned by people and consequently by their activities, dealing with the future does not seem a straightforward task. In these marginal rural landscapes the role of agriculture is being altered under the influence of the new rationale of the Common Agriculture Policy, so it may have to assume different functions in the future. Thus, this paper aims at showing how the development of ‘exploratory landscape scenarios’ can be a useful tool, firstly to find plausible landscape futures, and secondly to trigger discussions with the public regarding their aspirations for their landscape. The development procedure for ‘exploratory landscape scenarios’ builds on the ‘intuitive logics’ approach that focuses on the production of a variety of scenarios as starting point for discussion about the future rather than on finding an optimal one, which can limit the options unnecessarily from the beginning. The methodological approach is illustrated at a local scale by using the case study of Mértola in southeast Portugal. The results of the scenario exercise point out the adequateness of the methodology in the development of futures that are perceived as plausible by local stakeholders and, thereby, able to bring out their desires and threats towards the future of their landscape.     

Revival of a traditional community engagement model for the sustainable future of a historical commercial district: Bursa/Turkey as a case

Historical commercial districts in city centres in Turkey face social, cultural, environmental and economical challenges of managing rapid urban and economical development in the last two decades. They are being subjected to dramatic physical deterioration and rapid social and economical decline. Enriching relationships between local tradesmen associations, local authorities and non-governmental organisations through a structured engagement process can deliver innovative new revitalisation approaches and design options towards sustainable futures of historical commercial districts both in Turkey and in the world. This paper presents a community engagement model, which can be seen as the revival of a guild system (Lonca), which is unique to Ottoman Turkish culture, for the sustainable future of a historical commercial district in a Turkish city, Bursa. One of the main objectives of this study is to discuss and evaluate successes and failures of this community engagement model. Other objective of the paper is to discuss the effectiveness of this civil organisation for creating scenarios about sustainable future of a historical commercial district. The key finding of this study shows community engagement models should support public decision making by developing a coherent framework to identify the sustainable future scenarios with multi- or interdisciplinary collaborations.     

Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil,for 2030

In order to build prospective scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, with a sustainable perspective, it was necessary to develop a cross-disciplinary work to include Sachs’ dimensions of sustainability into the scenarios method. This meant linking concepts from different disciplines, without transforming it in a new discipline. In order to support the proposition for the new method, a study case is presented, the framework for the biodiesel scenarios in Brazil, by 2030. An in-depth interview was used to test the proposition of having the sustainability dimensions as driving forces. The result was the identification of a critical uncertainty composed of various aspects related the response to climate change and environmental conservation. The scenario storylines that were developed based on the critical uncertainties showed that sustainable options for the future are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.The results show that the scenarios storylines go through social, environmental and economic aspects, supported by other aspects like the territorial and political. Also it showed that sustainable options are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.     

Scenarios based on sustainability discourses: Constructing alternative consumption and consumer perspectives

This paper describes a research based scenario project on sustainable consumption in Belgium. In the Consentsus project a scenario method was developed and tested by the research team to assess scenarios both as learning and participation tools for sustainable consumption. By using a decomposition analysis a solid ground was laid to adequately summarize three guiding principles on how to reach a (more) sustainable consumption: eco-efficiency, de-commodification and sufficiency. These ‘pure’ strategies – showing significant similarities with concrete discourses – were then translated into a participative process: two expert-driven workshops and interim research yielded three future images of food consumption as well as indications on their boundary conditions. These three images reflect significantly diverging approaches on how to organize practices related to food consumption. This structural diversity allowed us to address an archetypical consumer, i.e. a generalized consumer based on the specificities of the scenarios. These consumer perspectives do not aim at indicating real (even potential) groups, but aim at illustrating how the environment of interactions around the consumer fundamentally changes throughout the three sustainability discourses. It is argued that thinking through alternative modes of consumption is of importance to support and elucidate debate in governance arenas that address transitions towards a more sustainable consumption.     

Utopian and dystopian thought in climate change science and policy

Climate change policies are increasingly seen as integral to sustainable development policies. This article examines how visions of future society have been employed in climate science and multilateral negotiations. Using elements of utopian and dystopian thought, we have categorized UNFCCC documents, IPCC assessments, and special reports and peer-reviewed climate policy articles. Our results indicate that utopian thinking surfaces with reference to sustainable development and emissions scenarios. Such visions of future society fall into three categories: projections, dystopian thought, and utopian thought. Dystopian thought is mainly evident in the rhetoric of various actors, and is used to spur action or inaction, to avoid either economic catastrophe by acting too fast or ecological catastrophe by not acting fast enough. Utopian elements in climate change science and policy refer to decoupling greenhouse gases and economic growth, evenly distributing the benefits of economic globalization, and smoothing technological development. The present piecemeal invocation of sustainable development concepts in climate science and policy emphasizes the difficulties of integrating environmental, social, and economic concerns. The article concludes that utopian thinking regarding sustainable development could result in more integrated and holistic visions of future society in climate science and policy.     

Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning

Backcasting represents a form of explicitly normative scenario analysis. This paper reviews some of the key theoretical and methodological issues that are raised by a backcasting approach and discusses how these are addressed in the Georgia Basin Futures Project, a five year participatory integrated assessment project focusing on modeling, scenario analysis and community engagement. The paper argues for a “second generation” form of backcasting, where the desired future is not determined in advance of the analysis but is an emergent property of the process of engaging with users and project partners. In this sense backcasting contributes to a process of social learning about possible and desirable futures.Subjunctive: A: Adj. 1b. Designating a mood, the forms of which are employed to denote an action or a state as conceived (and not as a fact) and therefore used to express a wish, command, exhortation, or a contingent, hypothetical or prospective event. (Oxford English Dictionary, p. 3122)     

An examination of future scenarios using historical analogy

The quality of scenario planning activities can be difficult to assess, as one cannot know how likely any projected future scenario is. Here, we introduce one approach for gaining greater confidence. Historical analogy provides the means for achieving this, whereby the model upon which scenarios are constructed is analysed in terms of how well it predicts and establishes links with recent historical environments. We apply this approach to a previously developed scenario tree, constructed using the field anomaly relaxation method, as a case study to indicate how historical analogy can be used to assess and enhance the model from which the scenarios are constructed.