Risk preference and optimal crop combinations in upland Java,Indonesia: an application of stochastic programming

A stochastic programming model was used to evaluate the economic performance of a soybean-based farming system in upland Java. The model incorporates farmers' risk preferences, revenue fluctuations and resources restrictions. The results show that (1) changes in risk preference do affect the optimal crop combination, and (2) the typical cropping pattern is rational under the present level of the farmers' risk preference estimated in the study site.     

Determinants of farmers' preference for alternative animal health service providers in Kenya: a proportional hazard application

One hundred and eighty farmers in the semiarid Makueni district, Kenya, were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. The objective was to assess factors that influence farmers' preference for alternative veterinary service providers following the liberalization of veterinary services. A proportional hazard model was fitted to the data because of its ability to accommodate simultaneously the attributes of both the chooser and the choice. Of the three service providers considered in the study, community‐based animal health workers were the most preferred followed by veterinary surgeons and animal health assistants. Farmers' age and education level were inversely but significantly related to the probability of choosing any of the three service providers. Distance to the preferred service provider was the main choice‐specific attribute with a significant impact on the choice probability. A high preference for community‐based animal health workers was noted suggesting the possibility of poorly trained animal health workers dominating the veterinary services market in remote areas of Kenya. Efforts geared toward the legalization of community‐based animal health workers in Kenya and elsewhere in the developing countries should first address the constraints that hinder the penetration of professional veterinary service providers in remote areas.     

县域土地资源利用分区研究——以乐山市沙湾区为例

土地利用分区是对土地利用的合理布局,也是实行土地分区用途管制制度的重要手段和法定依据;从生态环境效益和经济效益两方面出发,运用综合指数法空间分区模型进行分区,将研究区划分为3个功能类型区,并根据各功能区自然经济和土地利用发展背景,分别提出了土地可持续利用的方式与发展模式。     

中卫市旅游资源分类、评价及开发布局

宁夏中卫市旅游资源具有鲜明特征,对其旅游资源进行分类与优劣势评价,构建旅游资源开发布局,设计市内外旅游线路。     

日照市旅游资源分类、评价与开发区划

本文对日照市旅游资源进行分类,对其旅游资源优势进行系统评价,并提出旅游资源开发区划方案.     

固原市旅游资源分类、评价与开发布局

对固原市旅游资源进行分类,评价其旅游资源的优势,架构体系完备的开发空间布局.     

The effectiveness of a permaculture education project in Butula,Kenya

In the 1980s, agricultural development organizations began promoting permaculture, an agroecological approach that emphasizes local autonomy, through training programmes in the developing world. Few assessments have measured the effectiveness of such projects. Here we surveyed and interviewed small-scale farmers to assess the perceived impacts of a Canadian permaculture non-governmental organization’s (NGO) project in Butula, Western Kenya. Two types of projects are evaluated and compared: community projects (CPs) at six primary schools, and an intensive two-week permaculture design certification (PDC) programme. Our results suggest that both PDC and CP participants felt that they had benefited from the projects. However, PDC participants developed a more comprehensive understanding of permaculture, felt empowered and frequently related permaculture to their own traditional cultural values whereas CP participants often misunderstood permaculture, felt frustrated by the limited immediate economic benefits and frequently contrasted permaculture against traditional cultural values. These differences may have occurred because CP participants had fewer opportunities to interact directly with the permaculture teachers, to ask questions, or to clarify points of uncertainty. This study emphasizes the importance of direct, reciprocal communication between NGOs and project participants for fostering feelings of autonomy and competence, thereby strengthening resilient agroecological systems.     

Risk Perceptions, Risk Preference, and Acceptance of Risky Food

Consumers' risk preferences are often overlooked in studies of consumer demand for risky food. We find that risk preferences elicited through context-less lottery choices are significantly related to consumers' stated preferences for genetically modified (GM) food. These results suggest risk preferences elicited in the laboratory are not artificial in the sense that they appear to be related to the same risk preferences that govern other individual decisions such as food choice. Consistent with theoretical expectations, risk perceptions and risk preferences were found to be significant determinants of acceptance of GM food, which has important implications for explaining consumer behavior.     

Tradeoffs and complementarities in the adoption of improved seeds,fertilizer, and natural resource management technologies in Kenya

There is widespread consensus that agricultural technology has an important role to play for poverty reduction and sustainable development. There is no consensus, however, about the types of technologies that are best suited for smallholder farmers in Africa. While some consider natural resource management (NRM) technologies as most appropriate, others propagate input intensification with a stronger role of the private sector. In the public debate, these two strategies are often perceived as incompatible. Environmental non‐governmental organizations in particular consider low‐external input strategies as the only sustainable form of agriculture, a view that has considerable influence on policymakers and the international donor community. Most existing research studies on smallholder innovation focus on the adoption of individual technologies, so that comparisons between different types of technologies in the same context are not easily possible. We use representative data from maize‐producing households in Kenya and a multivariate probit model to analyze the adoption of different types of technologies simultaneously. Results indicate that NRM technologies and strategies that build on external inputs are not incompatible. Interesting complementarities exist, which are not yet sufficiently exploited because many organizations promote either one type of technology or the other, but rarely a combination of both.     

Specification and Estimation of Production Risk, Risk Preferences and Technical Efficiency

This article deals with specification and estimation of risk preferences, production risk, and technical inefficiency. It makes contribution in three separate areas of production economics. First, we model producers' attitude toward risk and derive risk preference functions (without assuming any parametric form of the utility function and any distribution of the error term representing production risk) when risk arises from production uncertainty and technical inefficiency. Second, the standard production risk model is extended to accommodate technical inefficiency and producers' attitude toward risk. Finally, the technical efficiency model is generalized to accommodate production risk and producers' attitude toward risk.     

Fencing elephants: The hidden politics of wildlife fencing in Laikipia,Kenya

Conservation is a fundamentally spatial pursuit. Human–elephant conflict (HEC), in particular crop-raiding, is a significant and complex conservation problem wherever elephants and people occupy the same space. Conservationists and wildlife managers build electrified fences as a technical solution to this problem. Fences provide a spatial means of controlling human–elephant interactions by creating a place for elephants and a place for cultivation. They are often planned and designed based on the ecology of the target species. Yet as we show in this case study, behind their technical façade, fences are highly political. This article presents the process of planning and building the 121 km West Laikipia Fence: created to prevent elephants from moving out of large private and government-owned ranches and onto smallholder cultivated land to the west of Laikipia County. We seek to show how the construction of a fence to solve the problem of HEC led to the division, reinforcement and communication of territory on the ground and how this was captured and shaped by different, and sometimes conflicting, political interests.     

Social capital,risk preference and adoption of improved farm land management practices in Ethiopia

Many developing countries grapple with high rates of farmland degradation and low agricultural productivity amidst increasing climate variability. Considerable efforts have been exerted to promote the diffusion of improved farmland management to address these challenges. Despite these efforts, adoption rates, especially of soil conservation and water harvesting technologies, are still low, which has been the subject of investigation in several studies in Ethiopia and elsewhere. Most studies on the adoption of these technologies, however, tend to focus on economic incentives only, paying little attention to the role of social capital. This article provides evidence of the effects of different dimensions of social capital on innovation adoption across households holding different levels of risk aversion. We address this issue by using cross section and panel data from Ethiopia. Results show that social capital plays a significant role in enhancing the adoption of improved farmland management practices. We also find evidence that the effect of social capital across households with heterogeneous risk taking behavior is different.     

Smallholder production structure and rural roads in Africa: the case of Nakuru District, Kenya

Data from a 1998 survey of farming households in Kenya is used to estimate the effects of poor rural road infrastructure (and high market access costs) on the structure of smallholder farm production. Simultaneous estimation of cost and input share equations reveals rational responses by farmers to high access costs. In the expected continued absence of major investments in rural infrastructure in countries such as Kenya, the policy challenge is to identify and catalyse institutional innovations that reduce a range of transaction costs, increase financial liquidity, increase social capital, and reduce risk.     

Underlying and proximate driving causes of land use change in district Swat,Pakistan

Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan, with diverse biophysical and socio-economic characteristics. The region is endowed with many fragile and fragmented ecosystems, and land use and land cover changes have accelerated destructive processes with irreversible effects on ecosystems. The paper aims to (1) find proximate and underlying causes of land use and land cover changes; (2) analyse the drivers of change; and (3) reflect on the role of governance and policy.We used land use maps for the years 1968 and 2007 to highlight the extent and type of land use changes, and household surveys and expert interviews were conducted to collect quantitative and qualitative data for detecting and analysing the drivers of change.Results of household surveys and expert interviews show that technological and environmental factors, accessibility and proximity to local markets, immense use of firewood, conflicting property rights and other institutional weaknesses, and over-grazing of alpine pastures were the main driving forces for agriculture expansion and deforestation.Given the present governance structure of forest management in Pakistan a multi-sectoral and multi-scale framework is required to conserve the Swat's natural landscape and associated ecosystem services. A carefully crafted reform programme is required to clarify and assign unambiguous property rights, provisions for communal management and market-based incentives, depending on the social, economic, and ecological characteristics of the different zones under consideration. Only with such policies in place can the current rapid rate of deforestation be avoided and sustainable natural resources use be ensured.     

Risk, uncertainty, and learning in adoption of a crop innovation

Risk and uncertainty have often been suggested as causes of poor adoption of rural innovations, but empirical evidence has been scarce. This study focuses on a new crop‐type, chickpeas, in Western Australia to gather such evidence. The empirical models developed are based on a theoretical framework that conceptualizes adoption as a dynamic decision process involving information acquisition and learning‐by‐doing by growers who vary in their managerial abilities, risk preferences, and their perceptions of the profitability and riskiness of the innovation. Learning encompasses improvements in skill as well as reductions in uncertainty. An annual face‐to‐face survey of over 100 farmers was conducted over 3 years, eliciting the farmers' risk attitudes and their subjective distributions of yields and prices. Two limited dependent variable models, Tobit and Probit, are used to estimate the empirical model. There is a high degree of goodness‐of‐fit for both models. The study provides strong empirical support for the primarily economic character of the adoption decision, and highlight the importance of economic risk in the process. The two risk‐related factors with greatest impact on the adoption decision were risk aversion and relative riskiness of the innovation. Risk aversion tended to reduce adoption, and to do so to a greater extent as relative riskiness and scale increased. Results also reveal the key role that trialing of the innovation plays in adoption.     

Risk, Wealth, and Sectoral Choice in Rural Credit Markets

We model the role of the informal credit sector in developing countries. The informational advantage of informal lenders is portrayed as the ability to monitor borrowers. Monitoring reduces the incentive problem and allows for contracts with lower collateral. This enables informal lenders to serve both individuals who cannot post the collateral required by the formal sector and those who are able but do not want to post collateral. The model is consistent with the conventional view of the informal sector as recipient of spillover demand from the formal sector. It also shows that the informal sector may provide partial insurance as the lower collateral requirement implies greater consumption smoothing for borrowers.     

Suitability evaluation of urban construction land in Pendik district of Istanbul,Turkey

Urban land suitability analysis is a complex process that requires geo-physical and environmental information and relevant expertise to analyse and interpret the information. This paper focuses on the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCA) for the assessment of potential suitability of urban development in Pendik district located in eastern Istanbul, Turkey. Various factors, including geo-physical attributes, accessibility, built-up area and infrastructure, vegetation, and green and blue amenities, were used for the land-use suitability assessments. Two different approaches (a deterministic and a fuzzy modelling approach) were utilised to evaluate the suitability of land uses for residential, industrial/commercial and recreational developments. Standardisation of values and unification of scales in map layers were done using the traditional deterministic approach in the first model, whereas fuzzy logic was used in the second model for the same purpose. AHP weighted the sub-criteria in the first model, and the fuzzy AHP method was used in the second model. The map layers were overlaid using the weighted linear combination for both cases using the GIS software. The final stage of the suitability assessment process consisted of a sensitivity analysis of the selected factors and their associated weights. The integration of fuzzy logic, fuzzy AHP and GIS is an advanced methodology and can improve suitability evaluations compared with those of alternatives based on traditional approaches. From our findings, we note that suitable lands for urban development are mainly located in the central and southern parts of the case study area. Our results also highlight how the spatial distribution of suitability classes vary with the selected model utilised for suitability assessment. The methodologies described in the paper can be extended to similar contexts, both locally and internationally.     

海洋渔业产学研合作研究述评及展望

产学研合作是加快渔业技术创新和成果转化的主要方式,是培养创新型海洋渔业人才的基本途径。本文从海洋渔业产学研合作的背景和内涵谈起,在对海洋渔业产学研合作研究现状综述的基础上,全面分析了当前海洋渔业产学研合作的成绩与不足,总结了海洋渔业的一般产学研结合、政产学研融合和政产学研协同创新等三种模式,并从构建“领导分工体系、制度保障体系、培训服务体系和技术推广体系”四个方面探讨了改进海洋渔业产学研合作的对策问题,为今后海洋渔业产学研合作研究提供了借鉴与指导。