The Favourite‐Longshot Bias, Bookmaker Margins and Insider Trading in a Variety of Betting Markets

This paper verifies the existence of the favourite‐longshot bias in a variety of sports betting markets where odds are set by bookmakers, but the precise pattern of the bias is not identical. Evidence is found to support a central prediction of the Shin (1993) model, which asserts that bookmakers are impelled to create a bias in their odds because of the presence of insider traders: that margins increase with the number of competitors.     

内幕交易监管、投资者交易策略与市场利益分配

当证券市场实施内幕交易监管后,投资者的交易策略可能会发生改变,市场利益的分配也会发生相应的改变。文章在一个实施内幕交易监管的框架下,对内部人的利益分配进行了研究,发现内部人的利益不仅与内幕交易监管力度和执行能力有关,还与市场流动性、交易者类型、信息准确度和市场波动性等因素密切相关。同时,由于监管有效性幻觉和内部人分层现象的存在,内部人利益在一定时期内还可能出现反常变动。     

Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: a Survey

The concept of information efficiency is central to many studies of financial markets, and these studies have been well surveyed to date. A betting market is an example of a simple financial market, but one which offers researchers the added advantage that it is characterized by a well-defined termination point at which each asset (or bet) possesses a definite value. In consequence, it is much more convenient to use this particular context to formulate tests of information efficiency, and from these tests to draw useful conclusions. This paper surveys the rapidly growing literature which has to date addressed this issue of information efficiency in betting markets.     

证券市场内幕交易的行为动机研究

2007年中国资本市场进入了全流通时代,全流通下内幕交易可能会比股权分置时更加严重,如何有效防范大股东和机构投资者利用信息优势、资金优势、控制权优势进行内幕交易,是全流通下内幕交易监管防范面临的主要挑战。本文从内幕交易的行为动机及其影响因素展开研究,借鉴Becker(1968)"犯罪经济学"的研究框架及行为金融学的相关理论,选取了相应影响因素的度量指标,架构了内幕交易行为动机模型。然后基于问卷调查的模拟数据,运用结构方程模型对影响内幕交易行为动机模型中各个变量之间的逻辑关系和内在影响机制进行了实证研究,得出富有价值的研究结论,并据此给出相应的政策建议。     

对我国内幕交易法律规制的反思

作者通过实证分析与理论探讨，认为：我国政府主导型的证券监管模式对控制内幕交易是无效的，但我们在短期内又无法建立内幕交易私权救济制度，只能完善现有的监管体系；中国证监会应正确运用其宏观调控职能与微观监管职能，赋予证监会“准司法权”是不合适的。     

国际资本流动趋势与中国资本循环结构分析

金融全球化是一个动态的发展过程,其程度随着跨国公司的对外资本扩张、机构投资者的投资规模扩大以及各金融主体之间依赖程度的提高而不断加深.在不同发展阶段的国家都不同程度地参与其中,分享金融全球化带来的利益,同时分担由此而产生的风险.文章在对金融全球化与国际资本流动的关系,趋势特征进行概述的基础上,分析了我国国际资本的循环结构并提出建议.     

内幕交易:理论、模型及实证研究

对内幕交易的研究始于证券监管的历史,近年来,随着理论的发展和数据的充足以及越来越多的国家加强对内幕交易的监管,内幕交易已成为金融市场理论中的热点研究领域。本文在综合国外研究成果的基础上,着重从理论、模型及实证三个方面对其发展进行了深入论介,最后对其未来的发展方向和研究重点提出了展望。     

Regulating Exclusion from Financial Markets

We study optimal enforcement in credit markets in which the only threat facing a defaulting borrower is restricted access to financial markets. We solve for the optimal level of exclusion, and link it to observed institutional arrangements. Regulation in this environment must accomplish two objectives. First, it must prevent borrowers from defaulting on one bank and transferring their resources to another bank. Second, and less obviously, it must give banks the incentive to make sizeable loans, and to honour their promises of future credit. We establish that the optimal regulation resembles observed laws governing default on debt. Moreover, if debtors have the right to a "fresh start" after bankruptcy then this must be balanced by enforceable provisions against fraudulent conveyance. Our optimal regulation is robust, in that it can be implemented in a way that does not require the regulator to have information about either the borrower or lender. Our results isolate the way in which specific institutions surrounding bankruptcy–namely rules governing asset garnishment and fraudulent conveyances–support loan markets in which borrowers have no collateral.     

谈关联交易、内部交易与内幕交易

分析了内部化理论,以及在此基础上以金融控股集团为背景对内部交易、关联交易与内幕交易三个术语进行了新的界定与比较。指出内部交易与关联交易的合理性与内幕交易的违法性。     

A New Approach for Regulating Information Markets

Information markets are markets for contracts that yield payments based on the outcome of an uncertain future event, such as a presidential election. They have the potential to improve decision making and policies throughout the economy. At the same time, there are regulatory hurdles to establish such markets, largely arising from state prohibitions on Internet gambling. This paper reviews the current regulatory structure for information markets in the United States and offers recommendations for reform. We argue that the authority for regulating many information markets should be shifted from the states to the federal government. In addition, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission should administer an “economic purpose test”. That test would only allow information market contracts that are likely to provide significant financial hedging opportunities or valuable information for improving economic decisions.     

Emission Permit Trading Between Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets

The present paper analyzes the efficiency of emission permit trading between two imperfectly competitive product markets. Even if firms are price takers in permit markets, the integration of permit markets can decrease welfare because of imperfect competition in product markets. If there is asymmetric information between the regulator and firms, the integration of the permit markets could have a positive effect related to the flexibility of an integrated market; this flexibility can justify integrating the permit markets.     

The Economics Of Partner Out Trading in Sexual Markets

This paper derives a model of participation in what is commonly known as ‘adultery’. Arguably the best sex survey in the world is used to produce estimates of participation functions. The results show a great deal of support for bioeconomic models and reveal some interesting similarities and differences between the male and female equations. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

噪声交易与市场质量

本文通过行业、规模、负债和成长能力的配对,建立起32家上证50成份股上市公司的控制样本,然后运用合理的计量方法,首次估计出符合我国股市微观结构的噪声交易高频时间序列,在此基础上深入分析噪声交易与信息不对称、流动性、波动性和有效性等市场质量指标之间的经验关系,发现:我国股市私人信息具有较高的相关性和持久性;噪声交易提高了交投活跃程度,同时却扩大了执行成本和价格波动幅度;噪声交易与信息不对称的关系不大;噪声交易使实际价差缩小,进而削弱了市场有效性。由此可见,噪声交易是一把"双刃剑",只有继续改革价格形成机制、增强价值投资力量、引导长期资金入市、完善信息披露制度并强化交易监控,才能进一步提高我国股市的质量。     

中国资本市场20年内幕交易行为案例综述

文章对1994-2015年中国证券监管机构和司法机关查处的内幕交易案件的特征进行了档案式归纳分析.研究发现,中国资本市场内幕交易案件呈现以下特点:(1)对内幕交易的处罚以行政处罚为主,民事赔偿基本处于缺位状态.(2)内幕交易违规主体以法定内幕人为主,但有向非法定内幕人扩散的趋势,且呈现裙带化、复杂化、公职化等特点;并购重组领域仍是内幕交易发生的“重灾区”;内幕交易的利益驱动力强,违法获利金额高.(3)内幕交易稽查执法力度不断增强,案件办理效率显著提升,但内幕交易处罚力度偏轻,威慑力不强.(4)从时间序列上看,不同时期的执法环境不同,执法效果也不同,但整体的内幕交易执法力度和效率均呈快速上升态势.此外,随着我国证券市场的发展,内幕交易的具体行为模式不断发生变化并呈现出新特点、新趋势,这对内幕交易行为监管提出了新挑战.因此,文章还深入剖析了两类具有代表性的新型内幕交易行为的特点,并提出了相应的监管对策.     

中国沪深股市内幕交易者隐蔽交易行为的实证研究

在前人研究的基础上,实证研究了中国沪深股市内幕交易者的隐蔽交易行为及其影响因素。实证结果显示:沪深股市中的内幕交易者具有隐蔽交易行为;合法获取内幕信息者的交易时距显著长于非法获取内幕信息者的交易时距;内幕交易者的交易时距与交易规模以及买入日到信息公布日的时长显著相关。最后根据研究结论提出若干政策建议。     

中国股市机构投资者多账户交易行为研究

多账户交易行为是中国机构投资者的典型特征,是中国股票市场的特有现象。限于交易数据的可获得性,相关研究较少。本文提出了一种从交易数据中将机构投资者的交易记录分离出来的方法。据此,本文分析了机构投资者证券账户与资金账户的对应关系,证实了多账户交易行为的存在,发现采用多账户交易的机构投资者具有集中投资、日内多次交易、利用不同证券账户进行建仓、对敲、拉升股价、出货等基本特征。根据实证研究的结果并结合实例,本文揭示了机构投资者多账户交易的动机是隐蔽交易、拉升股价和申购新股。     

知情交易与中国股市博彩溢价

本文发现中国股市存在博彩（投机）溢价,且无法为Fama—French三因子模型解释。尽管在组合构造期内,博彩型股票存在显著溢价,但组合的超额收益会迅速消失,并未给投资者（或投机者）带来持续的财富效应。基于知情交易概率测度,我们进一步发现中国股市的知情交易者驱动（或引发）了博彩型股票溢价;在组合构造后的月份,并没有明显的知情交易者存在,这意味着知情交易者在基于私人信息获利之后,那些随后进入市场的投资者（动量交易者）无法获得超额收益。     

Liquidity, Trading Size, and the Co-existence of Dealership and Auction Markets

This paper analyses the co-existence of two markets for the same shares, a quote-driven market and an order-driven market, as observed for example for the trading of continental shares on the London SEAQ International. The focus is on the trade-off between the uncertain execution price faced by investors on an auction market and the implicit transaction cost represented by the spread in a dealer market. We obtain that those investors who desire to make large trades will prefer to trade with the dealer, while trades of smaller size will be carried out on the auction market. Moreover, we explicitly investigate the interrelations between the two markets showing that the pricing policy followed by a dealer depends on the conditions prevailing on the auction market.
(J.E.L: G10, D40)