Confident expectations, rational expectations and the optimal conduct of monetary policy

Under what conditions central banks can afford to deviate from announced targets without losing their reputation is analyzed. For this, the public must have something like ‘confident expectations' vis-a-vis monetary policy and central banks have to behave accordingly. The paper shows that it can be rational for the public and welfare-increasing for the society to retain ‘confident expectations' instead of switching to rational expectations, when central banks have gained long-run reputation. At the end of the paper, alternative optimal money supply rules are compared in a dynamic optimization framework. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

Political risk and the expectations hypothesis

This paper develops and empirically supports, using 3 and 6 month interest rates, a theory that political risk can explain the shifting term premia found in U.S. data. We find that incorporating these political regime shifts yield results that support the expectations hypothesis.     

Shaping long-run expectations in problems of coordination

When far-sighted agents may adjust their behavior only gradually, the issue of equilibrium selection becomes one of tension between history and expectations. This paper analyzes whether, in this context, a government policy maker may intervene successfully and redirect expectations away from the inertia of undesired history. The possibilities and limitations of such an approach to `expectation management' are studied within a game-theoretic framework which involves both the government and the population.     

The curse of low expectations

We examine how a remedial education programme for primary school‐age children affects parental expectations about their children's future. Using original survey data we collected in Serbia, we investigate whether expectations on labour market prospects and educational attainment change as a consequence of exposure to the Roma Teaching Assistant programme. Our results show that parents of pupils in treated schools expect higher returns to education for their children and are more likely to expect them to achieve a secondary level of education. We also investigate the possible mechanisms in place due to the characteristics of the programme: remedial education and role model.     

Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation

We estimate the effect of pension reforms on households' expectations of retirement outcomes and private wealth accumulation decisions exploiting a decade of intense Italian pension reforms as a source of exogenous variation in expected pension wealth. The Survey of Household Income and Wealth, a large random sample of the Italian population, elicits expectations of the age at which workers expect to retire and of the ratio of pension benefits to pre-retirement income between 1989 and 2002. We find that workers have revised expectations in the direction suggested by the reform and that there is substantial offset between private wealth and perceived pension wealth, particularly by workers that are better informed about their pension wealth.     

The use of modeling tools for policy in evolutionary environments

This is a position paper on the possibilities of informing the (economic and environmental) policy debate by using quantitative evolutionary models. I argue that an evolutionary worldview implies that the existing quantitative modeling tools used for policy analysis are problematic. Then I summarize the main elements of an evolutionary way of analysis, and the way in which it can be incorporated into quantitative models. I conclude with an outline of a proposal for how to apply the ideas in the analysis of energy transitions.     

Intertemporal consumption with directly measured welfare functions and subjective expectations

Euler equation estimation of intertemporal consumption models requires many, often unverifiable assumptions. These include assumptions on expectations and preferences. We aim at reducing some of these requirements by using direct subjective information on respondents’ preferences and expectations. The results suggest that individually measured welfare functions and expectations have predictive power for the variation in consumption across households. Furthermore, estimates of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution based on the estimated welfare functions are plausible and of a similar order of magnitude as other estimates found in the literature. The model favored by the data only requires cross-section data for estimation.     

Patterns of expectations for emerging sustainable technologies

Innovation is characterized by uncertainties, high risks, large investments and late returns on investment which make it a complex process. This is particularly true for sustainable innovation where market forces alone cannot be relied upon to realize the desired transitions. Insight in the dynamics of such innovation processes is necessary in order to influence technological change toward a more sustainable direction. However, few instruments and indicators are available to assess the performance of emerging technological innovation systems. In this phase competition often takes place based on expectations rather than on technological performance. This paper therefore focuses on the expectation patterns of technological innovation systems in the exploratory phase through the analysis of the expectation dynamics of three emerging technologies in the field of sustainable mobility within the Netherlands: biofuels, hydrogen as a transport fuel and natural gas as a transport fuel. These technologies do not only compete with the current fossil-fuel based system but also with each other. We have collected over 5000 expectation events regarding these technologies for the period 2000–2008 and discuss the insights generated by the comparison of the observed expectation dynamics to theoretical patterns.     

Political and Social Economics: Beyond Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy

Economists face at least two problems when they try to go interdisciplinary. One is how to adapt their theory where the original set of assumptions may fail to apply. This is a particular problem for economists who carry the “default” neoclassical model around in their heads. This paper outlines a map for keeping track of assumptions when doing interdisciplinary work. A second problem is how to take a theory designed for one discipline and turn it into something intelligible to practitioners of another. One needs a common language, and it is argued that general systems theory might help, even though it is not a complete language. The map proposed here provides a unified way to compare and contrast the approaches of different orthodox and heterodox traditions and better see what problems they are most suited to addressing.     

Political and Social Economics: Beyond Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy

Economists face at least two problems when they try to go interdisciplinary. One is how to adapt their theory where the original set of assumptions may fail to apply. This is a particular problem for economists who carry the “default” neoclassical model around in their heads. This paper outlines a map for keeping track of assumptions when doing interdisciplinary work. A second problem is how to take a theory designed for one discipline and turn it into something intelligible to practitioners of another. One needs a common language, and it is argued that general systems theory might help, even though it is not a complete language. The map proposed here provides a unified way to compare and contrast the approaches of different orthodox and heterodox traditions and better see what problems they are most suited to addressing.

What is specific about evolutionary economics?

Ever since an “evolutionary” perspective on the economy has been suggested, there have been differing, and partly incommensurable, views on what specifically this means. By working out where the differences lie and what motivates them, this paper identifies four major approaches to evolutionary economics. The differences between them can be traced back to opposite positions regarding the basic assumptions about reality and the proper conceptualization of evolution. The same differences can also be found in evolutionary game theory. Achievements of the major approaches to evolutionary economics and their prospects for future research are assessed by means of a peer survey.

Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty

This paper contributes to the literature on firms’ export pricing by assessing whether and to what extent firms take into account the expected future evolution of the exchange rates while setting their prices. Using French micro-level trade data, our empirical analysis reveals that by adjusting their export prices, firms partly absorb information about future exchange rate variations. The extent to which individual exporters absorb future exchange rate fluctuations is found to depend on their market power, in accordance with theoretical dynamic demand-side models encompassing mechanisms creating an inter-temporal relationship between current market shares and future profits. The analysis also shows that the strength of such expectation-related mechanism is considerably reduced with greater future exchange rate uncertainty, in line with an interpretation of pricing-to-market as an investment decision under uncertainty. In a comparative perspective our results are shown to drive asymmetric responses across destinations of aggregate bilateral export flows to expected exchange rate movements.     

Evolutionary economics goes mainstream: A review of the theory of learning in games

The Theory of Learning in Games by Fudenberg and Levine surveys a key branch of evolutionary economics from a mainstream perspective. Its publication provides an opportunity to reassess the prospects and goals for evolutionary economics.     

Schumpeterian endogenous growth theory and evolutionary economics

In this paper, we aim to discuss whether Schumpeterian models of endogenous growth can accommodate Schumpeters vision of development through creative destruction. Taking a methodological approach, our focus is on individual decision-making, technology, general equilibrium and welfare, and steady state dynamics as the fundamental principles underlying endogenous growth theory. In particular, the Aghion-Howitt model of Schumpeterian growth in various extended versions is analyzed in the light of Schumpeters work. Therefore, we also try to root Schumpeters work in historical context. We find endogenous growth theory far from carrying Schumpeters idea of an evolutionary approach to change and development. Rather the emergence of numerous models of an evolutionary type can be observed to provide for the formal structure appropriate to keeping Schumpeters legacy alive.JEL Classification: B1, B2, B4, O3, O4Corespondence to: Thomas Kuhn     

The evolutionary and non-Darwinian economics of Joseph Schumpeter

In a recent paper, Matthias Kelm (1997) accepts that `Schumpeter's definition of evolution does not contain any Darwinian mechanism such as natural selection or any other biological concept' and that Schumpeter `made no such attempt' to apply `Darwinian theory to economic evolution'. However, Kelm goes on to argue that Schumpeter would have been a Darwinian if circumstances were different. It is argued here that this contention is highly implausible because Schumpeter explicitly rejected biological metaphors and analogies in economics. Furthermore, Schumpeter misunderstood Darwinism. In his attempt to `interpret' Schumpeter as a Darwinian, Kelm himself misrepresents the three core principles of Darwinism. In addition Kelm's paper contains several misunderstandings and misrepresentations of the assessment of Schumpeter made by Hodgson (1993). This present response concludes that Schumpeter was indeed one of the greatest economists of the twentieth century and that he may legitimately be described as an `evolutionary economist'. However, he cautioned strongly against the use of biological metaphors in economics and there is no legitimate basis for describing his approach as Darwinian.     

Tracing emerging irreversibilities in emerging technologies: The case of nanotubes

This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms. Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain and enable future activities. To trace the emerging irreversibilities we focus on the dynamics of expectations and the agenda building processes. A three-level framework is presented to analyse and visualise the dynamics in three interrelated contexts: the level of the research groups, the technological field and the society. This three-level framework allows the analyst to study different perspectives of a specific case and at the same time retain overview of the situation. By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities. To conclude, we will discuss how the analysis of early dynamics is a vital ingredient of technology assessment studies that, indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment, we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies.     

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates: The Brazilian case revisited

This article tests the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) using Brazilian monthly data for bond yields spanning the 2000–2017 sample period and ranging in maturity from 3 months to 5 years. Three tests are examined: the first is based on interest rates spread and the other two are based on the forward rates. On balance our results suggest rejection of the EH throughout the maturity spectrum examined, and are broadly consistent with previous findings that a linear combination of forward rates provides a statistically significant prediction of bond excess returns.     

解读演化经济学的兴起——兼论演化经济学的现状与未来发展

演化经济学的兴起主要有三个原因:西方主流经济学的范式危机;自然科学的发展;社会科学领域演化思想的积累与发展.演化经济学最近的前沿研究集中于进行演化建模,对复杂性进行测量,讨论技术与制度的协同演化等几个方面.拓展对多时期动态过程的研究,将演化经济学与制度经济学、马克思主义经济学、博弈理论等进行创造性综合,更多关注学科语言的凝炼和理论建模工作是演化经济学的未来发展方向.     

An introduction to evolutionary theories in economics

This paper presents the basic ideas and methodologies of a set of contemporary contributions which are grouped under the general heading of evolutionary economics. Some achievements-especially with regard to the analysis of technological change and economic dynamics-are illustrated, some unresolved issues are discussed and a few promising topics of research are flagged.This article draws on a chapter prepared for the book Market and Organization: The Competitive Firm and its Environment, edited within an EEC/Tempus Programme by LATAPSES, Nice, France, and Iside, Rome.     

经济学的时间及其革命

时间是人类认识世界的一种基本方式,人类时间观的改变不可避免地影响着人们对经济世界的认知。人类时间概念内涵的变化体现在经济理论发展的不同阶段中。本文阐述了人类时间概念演化史,分析了内涵不同的时间观在经济学理论建构中的地位和作用,以及时间观现代变革对经济学当前发展的意义。