Why do European consumers smoke? Responses from the rational addiction model

In this paper, we test whether European consumers are addictive smokers and, if this is the case, then whether such addictions can be explained by the rational addiction theory. To this end, we start from a non‐separable intertemporal utility function, which allows us to derive a demand function that is estimated using tobacco time‐series. The results are in accordance with the model of rational addiction for all European smokers. Thus, we observe the addictive character of tobacco consumption and, secondly, we note that the addiction is not the result of myopic consumer behaviour, but rather of the maximization of total utility, implying that consumers consider the future effects of their current decisions.     

Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach

Nowadays, brand choice models are standard tools in quantitative marketing. In most applications, parameters representing brand intercepts and covariate effects are assumed to be constant over time. However, marketing theories, as well as the experience of marketing practitioners, suggest the existence of trends or short-term variations in particular parameters. Hence, having constant parameters over time is a highly restrictive assumption, which is not necessarily justified in a marketing context and may lead to biased inferences and misleading managerial insights.In this paper, we develop flexible, heterogeneous multinomial logit models based on penalized splines to estimate time-varying parameters. The estimation procedure is fully data-driven, determining the flexible function estimates and the corresponding degree of smoothness in a unified approach. The model flexibly accounts for parameter dynamics without any prior knowledge needed by the analyst or decision maker. Thus, we position our approach as an exploratory tool that can uncover interesting and managerially relevant parameter paths from the data without imposing assumptions on their shape and smoothness.Our approach further allows for heterogeneity in all parameters by additively decomposing parameter variation into time variation (at the population level) and cross-sectional heterogeneity (at the individual household level). It comprises models without time-varying parameters or heterogeneity, as well as random walk parameter evolutions used in recent state space models, as special cases. The results of our extensive model comparison suggest that models considering parameter dynamics and household heterogeneity outperform less complex models regarding fit and predictive validity. Although models with random walk dynamics for brand intercepts and covariate effects perform well, the proposed semiparametric approach still provides a higher predictive validity for two of the three data sets analyzed.For joint estimation of all regression coefficients and hyperparameters, we employ the publicly available software BayesX, making the proposed approach directly applicable.     

Intertemporal substitution in the Spanish economy: Evidence from regional data

This paper studies the intertemporal substitution in consumption and leisure for the Spanish economy by estimating the first‐order conditions of an individual optimization model with regional and aggregate data. While first‐order conditions determining intertemporal substitution in consumption show a good econometric fit, and the value we obtain for the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is similar to previously available results, the econometric fit of the intertemporal condition in leisure indicates that the behaviour of the Spanish labour supply over the cycle is more complex than can be explained by the canonical intertemporal choice model.     

Current Accounts in the Long Run and the Intertemporal Approach: A Panel Data Investigation

This paper is a theory‐based study of the long‐run determinants of the current account (CA). For many OECD economies after the Second World War, there has been more long‐run variation in the CA data than is emphasised by a ‘Permanent Income’ version of the intertemporal approach that is based on consumption‐smoothing and that allows only transitory CA imbalances. A theoretical model of the CA is developed, based on the ‘broader’ variant of the intertemporal approach that stresses the long‐term component of the CA. We find that some key theoretical predictions hold, while others fail, validating the approach but also pointing to its limitations.     

Normal utilization as the adjusting variable in Neo‐Kaleckian growth models: A critique

As well‐known, the canonical Neo‐Kaleckian growth model fails to reconcile actual and normal rates of utilization in equilibrium. Some recent contributions revive an old proposal for solving this problem—making the normal rate of utilization an endogenous variable that converges to the actual utilization rate—justifying it with new, micro‐founded premises. We argue that these new justifications for the convergence of normal to actual utilization do not stand closer scrutiny. First, the proposed microeconomic model relies on various restrictive assumptions, some of which are mutually inconsistent. Second, the derivation of the macroeconomic adjustment mechanism from the microeconomic analysis involves a logical leap that can be justified only by a very arbitrary assumption with little economic justification. Finally, we discuss the way in which this mechanism has been incorporated into the Neo‐Kaleckian growth model by proposers of this approach. We show that, even if one puts aside, for the sake of argument, the first two points, the existence of autonomous components of demand is sufficient to invalidate the resulting macroeconomic model.     

Flexible estimation of price response functions using retail scanner data

Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects.     

Capital controls,capital flows and external crises: evidence from India

Despite the widespread use of capital controls, India has experienced several balance of payments crises. This paper examines the solvency and sustainability of India's external imbalances and analyses the optimality of its capital flows. We use two approaches: an intertemporal model of the current account that allows for capital controls, and a composite model of macroeconomic indicators that yields probabilities of future balance of payments crises. The results indicate that India's intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied and that the path of its current account imbalances is sustainable, with some support for the optimality (given capital controls) of its external borrowing.     

CONSUMPTION AND PORTFOLIO POLICIES WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS AND SHORT-SALE CONSTRAINTS IN THE FINITE-DIMENSIONAL CASE: SOME REMARKS

This paper extends He and Pearson's (1991) martingale approach to the study of optimal intertemporal consumption and portfolio policies with incomplete markets and short-sale constraints to a framework in which no assumptions are made on the price process for the securities. We show how both their characterization of the budget-feasible set and duality result can be extended to account for an unbounded set II of Arrow-Debreu state prices compatible with the arbitrage-free assumption. We also supply a (fairly general) sufficient condition for II to be bounded, as required in their setting.     

Estimation of meat demand system in Jordan: an almost ideal demand system

This paper reports the results of the estimation of a linear approximate almost ideal demand system for Jordan meat demand using cross‐sectional data collected by the Department of Statistics in Jordan as part of the household expenditure survey. A censored regression method for the system of equation is used to analyse the meat consumption patterns. This method allows for inclusion of a large number of zero consumption for some foods. Two‐step demand system was estimated. In the first stage, Inverse Mill Ratio is estimated by using probit regression model. In the second stage, the estimated variable is included in the AIDS model to estimate food demand elasticities. The objective of this work is to provide econometric estimates of the different types of demand elasticities for meats in Jordan. To be consistent with the demand theory, the homogeneity, symmetry and adding up restrictions were satisfied in the estimated models. The estimated model was used to obtain estimates of Hicksian, Marshallian and expenditure demand elasticities for meats in Jordan. The results revealed that the demand for mutton and poultry is elastic while the demand for beef and fish is inelastic. The cross‐price elasticities indicate that poultry and beef are substitutes to mutton. The expenditure elasticities confirm that beef and mutton are luxury goods while poultry and fish are necessity goods.     

Trade,growth and consumption in alternative models of capital accumulation

This paper shows that some of the most interesting effects of international trade on capital accumulation are essentially the same in a range of different technologies: input-output models, vintage models, and the standard two-sector model. Trade and autarky equilibria are compared on the assumption that the rate of profit is the same in both cases. The effect of trade on intertemporal choice is analysed, with emphasis on the case where steady state consumption falls as a result of trade. Alternative saving assumptions are discussed.     

Exchange rate determination: The role of factor price rigidities and nontradeables

This paper introduces factor (labor) markets into the intertemporal monetary model of Obstfeld and Rogoff and combines this richer market structure with a new utility-independent representation of nontradeables. This allows us to explore the international monetary transmission mechanism for factor price (wage) rigidities under different degrees of macroeconomic openness. Factor price rigidities imply similar properties for the international transmission mechanism as domestic producer price rigidities. Nontradeables give raise to interesting new effects under asymmetric monetary shocks: They create short-run PPP deviations, increase exchange rate volatility relative to price level volatility and reduce (positive) consumption and (negative) output comovements.     

CSR and banking soundness: A causal perspective

This is the first study to examine the relationship between sustainability and soundness in banking as part of an integrated reporting approach. We consider 12 major European banks over the period 2006–2016. To test the relationship, two indexes were constructed, the sustainable performance index, which attempts to measure sustainability, and the banking soundness index, which measures bank soundness. The results show a bidirectional causality between sustainability and banking soundness. More specifically, soundness encourages banks to engage in sustainable development activities, while the implementation of a sustainable development approach has a negative effect on banking soundness. Our research contributes to the literature on this topic in two ways. First, we propose a new method for measuring banking soundness based on a Bayesian approach. This approach allows us to study a large number of criteria and allows us to determine proactively the importance and the contribution of different determinants in achieving soundness. In addition, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that attempts to study the relationship between bank soundness and sustainability.     

A composite measure of performance–expectation and performance-only measures

Performance–expectation measures and performance-only measures of service quality have been widely used in the literature. However, either of the two measures is not sufficient to explain customers’ evaluation of service quality and satisfaction. Their assumptions are too restrictive to explain the evaluation processes. From an analytic perspective, this paper derives a composite measure integrating both measures for service quality. The previous measures are nested in the composite measure. Due to this feature, the composite measure is more flexible than the previous measures. It can account for conflicting theories and empirical findings supporting each of the two measures. Furthermore, the composite measure allows us to interpret the link between service quality and customer satisfaction more intuitively.     

The Generalized Nash Bargaining Solution for Transfer Price Negotiations Under Incomplete Information

In our model two divisions negotiate over type-dependent contracts to determine an intrafirm transfer price for an intermediate product. Since the upstream division’s (seller’s) costs and downstream division’s (buyer’s) revenues are supposed to be private information, we formally consider cooperative bargaining problems under incomplete information. This means that the two divisions consider allocations of expected utility generated by mechanisms that satisfy (interim) individual rationality, incentive compatibility and/or ex post efficiency. Assuming two possible types for buyer and seller each, we first establish that the bargaining problem is regular, regardless whether or not incentive and/or efficiency constraints are imposed. This allows us to apply the generalized Nash bargaining solution to determine fair transfer payments and transfer quantities. In particular, the generalized Nash bargaining solution tries to balance divisional profits, while incentive constraints are still in place. In that sense a fair profit division is generated. Furthermore, by means of illustrative examples we derive general properties of this solution for the transfer pricing problem and compare the model developed here with the models existing in the literature. We demonstrate that there is a tradeoff between ex post efficiency and fairness.     

New-structuralist exchange-rate policy and the pattern of specialization in Latin American countries

The present article critically examines the transmission channels from real exchange rate undervaluation to output growth adduced by New-Structuralism (NS). To this end, we slightly modify new-structuralist canonical model for small open peripheral economies, and make the underlying productive structure depend on income distribution. This allows us both to discuss: (a) the limits of the transmission channels adduced by NS in their own terms, that is, under the assumption that the tradable sector is the modern sector; and (b) the further limitations of these channels when the pattern of trade is more suitable to characterize Latin American countries, whose tradable sector mainly exports primary goods under conditions of differential rent. We conclude that the channels work under highly restrictive assumptions, and therefore the alleged positive relationship between real exchange rate and growth cannot be generally ascertained.     

Facilitation Methods for Collaborative Modeling Tools

This paper presents results of an ongoing research effort to support effective user involvement during modeling and analysis meetings. Productivity and user participation of traditional group meetings have been limitations imposed by chauffeured facilitation and single-user tools. These tools have been designed for analysts rather than for direct use by non-analyst users. Recently, electronic meeting systems (EMS) modeling tools that allow users to work in parallel to contribute directly during meetings have been developed. Such tools allow more domain experts to participate directly and productively during model development meetings than is possible using the traditional approach. Although previous research has demonstrated that EMS modeling tools may be used to develop some model content, little research had been done on collaborative facilitation methods that employ these tools. This paper presents a comparison of modeling approaches for use with EMS modeling tools and proposes an approach that overcomes significant problems inherent in other approaches. It leverages the productivity enhancement afforded by direct group access and still results in production of complete, integrated, high quality models. This approach allows models to be developed two to four times faster than with traditional modeling support and yet avoids model ambiguities and inconsistencies.     

Discounting and Its Impact on Durables Buying Decisions

The phenomenon of discounting is well established in the economics literature. However, this research has traditionally assumed that households have a single discount rate and make all intertemporal tradeoffs based on that rate. More current research in decision making and marketing has challenged the economics approach to intertemporal choice behavior. In this article, we propose two aspects of discounting research that are particularly relevant to consumer behavior toward durable goods. We propose first that consumers have individual discount rates for product categories. The second proposition is that, in a multiattribute modeling context, consumers have different discount rates for different attributes. We also discuss the strategic implications of these discount phenomena for marketing managers.     

Sequential choice designs to estimate the heterogeneity distribution of willingness-to-pay

Two prominent approaches exist nowadays for estimating the distribution of willingness-to-pay (WTP) based on choice experiments. One is to work in the usual preference space in which the random utility model is expressed in terms of partworths. These partworths or utility coefficients are estimated together with their distribution. The WTP and the corresponding heterogeneity distribution of WTP is derived from these results. The other approach reformulates the utility in terms of WTP (called WTP-space) and estimates the WTP and the heterogeneity distribution of WTP directly. Though often used, working in preference space has severe drawbacks as it often leads to WTP-distributions with long flat tails, infinite moments and therefore many extreme values. By moving to WTP-space, authors have tried to improve the estimation of WTP and its distribution from a modeling perspective. In this paper we will further improve the estimation of individual level WTP and corresponding heterogeneity distribution by designing the choice sets more efficiently. We will generate individual sequential choice designs in WTP space. The use of this sequential approach is motivated by findings of Yu et al. (2011) who show that this approach allows for superior estimation of the utility coefficients and their distribution. The key feature of this approach is that it uses Bayesian methods to generate individually optimized choice sets sequentially based on prior information of each individual which is further updated after each choice made. Based on a simulation study in which we compare the efficiency of this sequential design procedure with several non-sequential choice designs, we can conclude that the sequential approach improves the estimation results substantially.     

Investigating brand preferences across social groups and consumption contexts

Using a unique dataset on U.S. beer consumption, we investigate brand preferences of consumers across various social group and context related consumption scenarios (??scenarios??). As sufficient data are not available for each scenario, understanding these preferences requires us to share information across scenarios. Our proposed modeling framework has two main building blocks. The first is a standard continuous random coefficients logit model that the framework reduces to in the absence of information on social groups and consumption contexts. The second component captures variations in mean preferences across scenarios in a parsimonious fashion by decomposing the deviations in preferences from a base scenario into a low dimensional brand map in which the brand locations are fixed across scenarios but the importance weights vary by scenario. In addition to heterogeneity in brand preferences that is reflected in the random coefficients, heterogeneity in preferences across scenarios is accounted for by allowing the brand map itself to have a discrete heterogeneity distribution across consumers. Finally, heterogeneity in preferences within a scenario is accounted for by allowing the importance weights to vary across consumers. Together, these factors allow us to parsimoniously account for preference heterogeneity across brands, consumers and scenarios. We conduct a simulation study to reassure ourselves that using the kind of data that is available to us, our proposed estimator can recover the true model parameters from those data. We find that brand preferences vary considerably across the different social groups and consumption contexts as well as across different consumer segments. Despite the sparse data on specific brand-scenario combinations, our approach facilitates such an analysis and assessment of the relative strengths of brands in each of these scenarios. This could provide useful guidance to the brand managers of the smaller brands whose overall preference level might be low but which enjoy a customer franchise in a particular segment or in a particular context or a social group setting.