Economic growth target,distortion of public expenditure and business cycle in China

In this study, we provide empirical evidence on the incentive role of official promotion from the perspective of managing economic growth targets. Using a manual dataset of economic growth targets in 230 Chinese cities during 2003–2016, we find that economic growth targets of governments curb public service expenditure on education, science and technology and this distortion results in the stagnation of human capital and technological progress, constraining long-term economic growth. When the growth target size of cities exceeds that of higher-level governments or if governments overfulfill their growth target tasks, then public service expenditure will decrease. We interpret the empirical findings as evidence that promotion evaluation based on economic performance distorts the composition of public expenditure, hinders sustainable economic development, and even accelerates the start of an economic downturn. Our study adds significant evidence to the theoretical literature emphasizing that the official evaluation system and public service could affect business cycle.     

公共教育投资与延长人口红利——基于人力资本动态投入产出模型和SAM的预测

本文利用SAM和动态投入产出模型预测了通过提高公共教育投资以延长人口红利的可行性。假定政府扩张教育投入至GDP4.5%,施行高中义务教育,虽然在短期内由于挤占经济建设投资,会导致经济增速下降,但其长期效应包括：使高中和研究生学历人力资源迅速扩张,显著提升现代制造、科教、服务业的生产率,为产业结构升级打下基础;居民和企业相对收入提高,有利于经济增长模式转变;GDP增长率将随着人力资本的积累而回升,增长在人口红利拐点后得以延续。     

基础设施建设支出、结构性减税与最优政策选择

财政政策的最优政策选择问题对于国家宏观调控政策的出台具有指导意义。既往的研究忽略了利用动态一般均衡的方法探求具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出与结构性减税支出的政策选择问题。本文利用引入基础设施建设支出和结构性减税的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,测算比较基建支出和结构性减税的政策福利效应。研究表明：具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出不仅可以通过提高生产效率的方式促进产出,还可以通过挤入居民消费的方式加强政策福利效应。经过测算,短期的基建支出乘数大于结构性减税的政策乘数。同时,基建支出长期平均产出乘数小于结构性减税的平均产出乘数。与结构性减税政策相比,增加基建支出对于财政资金有限的政府是短期内更加有效的产出刺激政策,但在长期中,结构性减税政策不仅具有较高的政策效应,还可以从消费、劳动、投资等角度实现结构性政策目标。进一步研究发现,地区经济发展水平的不同会导致各地区的最优政策选择存在差异性：发达地区可以通过结构性税收政策解决结构性问题的同时实现长期经济增长;而欠发达地区则更应该注重运用基础设施建设为主的支出政策以促进经济增长;但随着人口逐渐从欠发达地区流出,提高欠发达地区的基建支出是否是可行之策,还需要考虑区域协调发展等诸多因素。     

新疆公共教育支出与经济发展协调性的实证研究——基于财政性教育支出的视角

区域之间的竞争归根结底是人才的竞争,一个地区教育投入的规模始终影响着该地区教育的现状和未来发展趋势。作为落后地区,新疆跨越武发展目标的实现在很大程度上取决于教育的发展水平。本文通过对新疆财政性教育支出和全国不同区域的比较以及与经济发展水平协调性的实证检验,提出了进一步促进公共教育支出与新疆经济协调发展的政策建议。     

地方政府财政支出政策效果差异化分析——基于四川省面板数据

基于四川省1995—2006年面板数据,利用工具变量评估财政支出乘数模型并借鉴分位数模型思想,发现财政支出政策不利于缩小区域内经济发展差距,即对于经济发展水平越高的地方,财政支出效果越好,原因在于其资本利用能力,即财政支出对投资的溢出效应,造成第二产业增长幅度不同,最终呈现出财政支出效果不同.认识这一点对于在经济处于新常态背景下,有利于优化开发财政产业政策的作用空间.     

Fiscal incentives,competition, and investment in China

This paper explores how fiscal incentives offered to local governments in China affect investment rates in their jurisdictions. Theoretically, we build a simple fiscal competition model to establish the linkage between local fiscal incentives and expenditure policy and consequently, capital movement. The key prediction of the model, borne out by data from Chinese provinces spanning 2004–2013, is that an increase in the local corporate income tax-sharing ratio, which proxies fiscal incentives offered to local governments, motivates local governments to compete for capital investment through increased public expenditure. Our results contribute to the literature on both fiscal federalism and state capacity by showing that local fiscal incentives significantly shape policy choices and local economic performance. In addition, by exploring fiscal incentives offered to local governments, we offer a novel explanation for the unusually high investment rate in China that has been sustained over a prolonged period.     

中国农村人力资本投资与农村经济发展

文章认为,目前我国农村广泛存在着教育投资动力不足和教育能力缺乏的问题,其中原因主要是农村人力资本的投资收益率不高。除此之外,教育体制方面的不健全、学校教育与农村经济发展状态脱节的事实以及农业职业教育力度不够,在很大程度上制约了农村人力资本的投资额。但在现代新农村环境下,只有依靠加大对农村人力资本投资才能够真正实现农村经济的可持续发展。在这种现实的背景条件下,文章对人力资本投资和农村经济发展之间的相互关系进行了说明和分析,以试图对农村人力资本收益与农村经济发展提供一些思路。     

Human capital investment in children: An empirical study of household child education expenditure in China, 2007 and 2011

Household education expenditure is an important component of human capital investment in children. In China, the rising child education expenditure and the subsequent financial burden on families have attracted much research and policy attention in the recent years. Using 2007 and 2011 data from the Urban Household Education Surveys, our empirical study provides new evidence on the education expenditure level, ratio of expenditure to household income, and inequality in this expenditure. We also elucidate changes in China's household education expenditure and explore factors associated with such changes. From the analysis, we obtain the following findings. First, education expenditure incurred outside the school significantly contributes to increasing household education expenditure. Second, compulsory education programs are effective in curbing in-school education expenditure; however, it does not prevent the rapidly increasing education investment outside school. Third, education expenditure disproportionally increases with family income. In other words, a larger share of the income earned by lower income families is spent on children's education, compared to higher income families.     

Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model

This paper establishes a nonlinear theoretical model and uses panel smoothing transitional regression to study the optimal levels of government investment and public debt in a growth model using a panel dataset of 65 developed and developing economies over the period 1991–2014. The empirical results show that the effect of government investment on economic growth is decreasing as the level of expenditure rises. When the government investment/GDP ratio reaches a certain point (threshold), the effect of government investment could change from positive to negative. The effect of public debt on economic growth demonstrates a similar pattern. Our results suggest that there must exist an optimal level of government investment or public debt as far as economic growth is concerned, although the optimal level may vary in different economies. The government investment/GDP and public debt/GDP ratios of China were respectively 15.66% and 41.14% in 2014. These levels did not reach their respective thresholds and hence their effects on economic growth were still in the positive territory. Despite the expansion of government investment and public debt in China after the world financial crisis, their scales had not affected the country's economic growth during the data period.     

教育公共投入与收入差距的波及效应

在对城乡教育公共投入差异的分析基础上,运用卢卡斯的新经济增长理论框架,采用面板数据常用的固定效应模型估计人力资本及其外溢效应对城乡收入差异的影响。实证研究发现,人力资本对城乡收入增长均有较强的促进作用,且农村人力资本的产出弹性明显高于城市。但与城市相比,农村人力资本的外溢效应偏低,这在一定程度上拉大了业已存在的城乡差距。     

Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Mexico

This paper addresses the important question whether public investment spending on economic infrastructure enhances economic growth and labor productivity in Mexico. Following the lead of the endogenous growth literature, it presents a modified production function which explicitly includes the positive or negative externality effects generated by additions to the public capital stock. Using cointegration analysis, the paper proceeds to estimate a dynamic labor productivity function for the 1955–94 period that incorporates the impact of the growth rate in the stocks of both private and public capital (as opposed to the flows) and the economically active population (EAP) (rather than the rate of population growth). The results suggest that (lagged) increases in public investment spending on economic infrastructure—as opposed to overall public investment spending—have a positive and highly significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. In addition, the estimates suggest that increases in government consumption expenditures may have a negative effect on the rate of labor productivity growth, thus suggesting that the composition of government spending may also play an important role in determining the rate of labor productivity growth. Finally, the findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures on economic and social infrastructure to meet targeted reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP.     

Public spending and economic growth: evidence from Ghana (1970–2004)

Governments undertake expenditures to pursue a variety of objectives, one of which is economic growth. This paper examines aggregated and disaggregated expenditure on economic growth in Ghana over the period 1970–2004. Expenditure on education and health represents human capital development, while expenditure on roads and waterways captures infrastructure development. The study reveals that the aggregated government expenditure retarded economic growth. The study's findings show that expenditures on health and infrastructure promote economic growth, while those on education had no significant impact in the short run. In addition, the political economy variables?namely the nature of governance (democracy) and political instability (years of changes in government and military dictatorship)?proved significant in explaining Ghana's economic growth over the study period.     

财政收支规模与新疆经济发展的相关性分析

财政收支规模与社会经济发展密切相关。本文通过对新疆财政收支规模与新疆经济发展的相关性分析,明确了新疆宏观税负、财政支出总量与结构对新疆经济的影响,说明新疆税收收入的增长与经济增长之间存在着不和谐因素、新疆财政支出结构不尽合理,尤其是与民生相关的指标较低等问题,从而提出了调整经济结构、优化税源结构等对策建议。     

Public and Private Capital Productivity Puzzle: A Nonparametric Approach

Is public expenditure productive? Is there a shortfall or excess in public capital investment? We address these old issues in the light of new econometric tools. It is argued that the Cobb-Douglas specification that ignores nonlinearity inherent in the functional relationship of the production technology causes incorrect estimates of input elasticities. To avoid possible model misspecification, we use Li-Racine generalized kernel estimation. This procedure is used to estimate the returns to private capital, employment, and public capital in gross state product from a panel of 48 states for 17 years. In contrast to previous studies, we find that the return to public capital is positive and significantly different from zero.     

公共艺术教育的微观经济效应：微观机理与实证分析

公共艺术教育是大学美育的主要途径和大学通识教育的重要组成部分,将通过公共艺术教育增强的通用性人力资本定义为创意人力资本,建立创意人力资本投资的理论模型,并通过面向在校大学生、已就业人员和企业高管的问卷调查数据分析,从不同角度检验公共艺术教育在提升就业能力、促进文化艺术消费需求、增进主观效用等方面的微观经济效应。模型显示公共艺术教育表现出与高等院校专业课程的捆绑效应、耦合效应、收益递增与路径依赖效应,以及兼具货币收益与非货币收益的双重收益效应。实证检验表明,公共艺术教育通过对个人认知能力、身心健康、审美品位和情感态度与社会行为的积极作用（亦即个人发展效应）,促使其就业能力和文艺消费需求的增长。     

财政支出结构与经济增长的实证分析

本文基于省级面板数据,通过构建财政支出结构对生产要素效率影响的经济计量模型,对我国财政支出结构与区域经济增长进行了经验研究。得出财政支出结构与经济发展密切相关。不同类型的公共支出项目,对经济总体规模、资本要素产出和劳动要素的产出效率的影响分别不同。因此在现阶段有必要对财政支出结构进行优化,最大限度地发挥财政政策拉动经济增长的潜能,促进区域经济协调增长。     

转型期的政治激励、财政分权与地方官员经济行为

本文在一个框架内考虑了政治激励与财政分权,考察了转型期我国地方官员的经济行为.中央强调经济增长与财政收入增加的考核导向,使得地方财政支出过度偏向基础设施建设而公共品支出不足,同时抑制了其中的官员私人消费支出.在资本不可流动但多期情形下,地方官员通过降低税率和加大基础设施投资来积累资本.在资本可流动情形下,地方官员为了吸引资本.有额外的激励降低征税力度和加大基础设施建设投入.在资本可流动情形下,地区初始发展水平差距意味着地区吸引资本能力的差异,这可能导致地区发展差距比资本不可流动情形下更大.由于资本有更好的流动性,地方倾向干将财政压力施加到劳动所得上,从而导致初次收入分配中劳动所得份额偏低.     

Health,education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications

This empirical analysis examines the augmented Mankiw, Romer and Weil's model which considers both health and education in human capital in the framework of Chinese economy. We consider the relationship between per capita real GDP growth and the physical capital, human capital, and health investment in the production function. Panel data models are used in the estimation based on the provincial data from 1978–2005. The empirical evidence shows that both health and education have positive significant effects on economic growth. The results also show that the interaction of health and education stock will not reduce their impact on growth and there is perhaps a trade-off between two forms of human capital investment.     

Examining Foreign Aid Fungibility in Small Open Economies

The paper uses a non-scale growth model to examine the behavior of a small open economy to varying degrees of foreign aid fungibility. Shifting government resources to public consumption while allocating the aid to either type of public expenditure or as a pure transfer changes the productivity of the private factors in production. Agents respond, as with any government transfer, by adjusting consumption, debt and work effort. Private capital accumulation slows and the welfare effect dominates. The fungibility results maintain for parameterizations that reflect limited substitution in production and where the public capital externality is small. The analysis, which employs extensive numerical simulations, emphasizes the tradeoffs between long-run capital accumulation and welfare that maintain even when aid is fungible. The simulations highlight the complementarity between foreign aid and public expenditure, the tradeoff between welfare and capital accumulation, and that aid cannot replace the government??s own commitment to financing public expenditure. The results suggest that a policy in which the government is required to maintain its expenditure commitment to public capital yields the highest level effects to capital accumulation, consumption and output.