Discrepancy between Registered and Actual Unemployment Rates in China： An Investigation inProvincial Capital Cities

The unemployment rate is a key indicator of labor market and economic performance. Based on a unique survey, we estimate the unemployment rate at 13.44percent in 30 provincial capital cities in China in 2007, which is well above the officially announced registered unemployment rate. The discrepancy results from inaccuracy in the calculation of registered unemployment. The discrepancy is not stably evolving across regions or over the years, making it difficult to recover the true unemployment rate using a simple multiplier approach. We further investigate the sources of the discrepancy by examining the determinants of unemployment registration. It is evident that participation in certain public activities, which would facilitate the spread of knowledge related to job-searching and unemployment registration, encouraged unemployment registration. Social attention to government antiunemployment programs also encouraged unemployment registration. These findings confirm the behavioral hypothesis that incomplete knowledge and limited attention can cause deviation from optimal choice. The policy implications of the findings of the study are discussed.     

Implicit Taxation of Agriculture: The Cause of Development Failure in Egypt

Abstract: Egypt has been unable to sustain rapid economic growth in the past, nor has it been able to generate employment opportunities at a fast enough rate to keep unemployment from rising. It will be argued in this paper that this has been the result of significant implicit taxation of the agricultural sector. The latter has slowed the structural transformation of the Egyptian economy, increased the capital intensity of production in the urban sector, and slowed overall economic growth. The Egyptian experience is contrasted with that of South Korea and Taiwan. The results indicate that indeed structural change in Egypt has been slowed by the implicit taxation of agriculture.     

The productivity–wage relationship in South Africa: an empirical investigation

This article investigates the relationship between labour productivity, average real wages and the unemployment rate in South Africa at the macroeconomic level, using time‐series econometric techniques. There is strong evidence of a structural break in 1990, after which time all three variables rose rapidly. The break appears to have negatively affected the level of employment in the first instance, and subsequently fed through into per worker wages and productivity. A long‐term equilibrium (cointegrating) relationship was found between real wages and productivity, but unemployment was apparently unconnected to the system, which lends support to the insider–outsider theory. A long‐term wage–productivity elasticity of 0,58 indicates that productivity has grown more rapidly than wages, which is consistent with the finding that labour's share of gross output has been shrinking over the past decade. These trends may be explained plausibly by the adoption of job‐shedding technology and capital intensification.     

Hysteresis in unemployment in the Netherlands

Summary The Dutch labour market situation in the eighties can be characterized by the hysteresis phenomenon, i. e. a rising natural rate of unemployment as a result of the rise of actual unemployment in the past. It appears that the hysteresis phenomenon is more important in The Netherlands than in France and the United States and as relevant as in Germany and the United Kingdom. Because of the steep rise of unemployment in The Netherlands the natural rate of unemployment may have risen more than in Other European countries. As a consequence, the wage depressing effect of the current high unemployment rate has diminished rapidly.I thank J.C. Siebrand, D.P. Broer and C.B. Mulder for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

Robust Monetary Framework for China

I. Introduction China has made tremendous gains in terms of economic growth in the last 15 years, by inviting foreign direct investment and increasing manufacturing production and exports. The currency unification (devaluation of the official rate and unification of the official and market rates) in 1994 also contributed to the efficiency in the monetary and foreign exchange systems. China was not severely affected by the Asian currency crisis of 1997–1998, and instead China helped the regio…     

费尔普斯对宏观经济学的贡献

美国哥伦比亚大学教授埃德蒙·费尔普斯因在宏观经济学方面做出了杰出的贡献而获得2006年度诺贝尔经济学奖.其贡献主要体现在两个方面,即对通货膨胀与失业问题的研究以及对资本积累的研究.本文就对这两个方面予以介绍.     

Pollution mitigation,unemployment rate and wage inequality in the presence of agricultural pollution

This paper established a small open general equilibrium model to investigate the effects of the changes of consumers' unit private mitigation expenditure on the unemployment rate and the urban-rural wage inequality etc.. We found that (1) in the capital specific case, the increase of unit private mitigation expenditure will not only increase the urban unemployment rate but also expend the urban-rural wage inequality; (2) in the capital movable case, the conclusions are exactly opposite to that of the capital specific case. And under certain conditions, the increase of unit private mitigation expenditure may improve national income. According to the parameter calibration and numerical simulation results of the relevant macroeconomic data of China in 2017, we also found that (3) the effects of the changes of unit private mitigation expenditure on the urban unemployment rate is greater than that of the urban-rural wage inequality; (4) the influence degree of the changes of unit private mitigation expenditure on the unemployment rate in the capital movable case is greater than that of the capital specific case, but the influence degree of the change of unit private mitigation expenditure on the urban-rural wage inequality in the capital movable case is smaller than that of the capital specific case.     

GROWTH,EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA

The high rate of unemployment in South Africa stands out in an otherwise vastly improved set of macroeconomic fundamentals compared with the situation in the early 1990s. One might be tempted to argue that by this single indicator alone, the government's macroeconomic policies have been a failure. This paper explains why jumping to such a conclusion would be a mistake. Annual time series data on total formal sector employment is constructed dating back to 1946. The relationship between economic growth and formal sector employment is then measured and changes in the employment coefficient over time are described. The employment coefficient was found to be relatively stable, with a long‐term average value of 0.5. It returned to this value after a short‐lived collapse in the mid‐1990s. It is concluded that the main reason for the persistently high and rising rates of unemployment in South Africa since the mid 1990s was the very large increase in the labour force and not a historically deficient growth or employment performance of the economy.     

Does Life Expectancy Affect Private Educational Investment in China？

In this paper, we emphasize the interactive effect between life expectancy and human capital accumulation, and test the positive feedback of longevity to educational investment in China. This is very important for understanding the pressure from the aging population and the increase in private educational investment in China. We first show in an extended human capital investment model that life expectancy growth acts as a driving force for educational investment. We then build a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences empirical framework and use cross‐province data to examine the effect in China. We use the maternal mortality rate (MMR) to identify the difference in life expectancy between genders, and the illiteracy rate or average years of education by gender for educational investment. The empirical results comply with the theory, in that increases in life expectancy significantly lower illiteracy rates and improve the average schooling years in China. This content of the present paper is closely related to crucial issues like population aging, human capital accumulation and gender discrimination. Policy implications are discussed based on the empirical results.     

Uncovering the Truth about Chinese Urban Unemployment Rates: 2005–2012

Using China Urban Household Survey data from 2005 to 2012, the present paper examines the changing pattern of China's urban unemployment rates. The paper shows that the annual urban unemployment rates during 2005–2012 averaged approximately 8.5 percent, as opposed to the official figure of approximately 4.1 percent, and despite the significant slowdown of GDP growth since 2008, the urban unemployment rates still exhibit a downward trend. This paper finds that continuous job creation in both the tertiary and the non‐state sectors helps explain the decreasing trend in unemployment rates. Meanwhile, the downward trend of the unemployment rates could also be explained by the fact that both the secondary industry and the state‐owned sector have destructed fewer jobs because of the execution of macroeconomic stimulus policies since 2008.     

Industry specialization, diversification, churning, and unemployment in Chinese cities

This paper studies how industry specialization, diversification, and churning affect unemployment rates in Chinese cities. Using a city level panel data set from 1997 to 2006, we find that in contrast to the evidence from developed countries, industry diversity is positively and significantly associated with unemployment rates, possibly due to the high degree of industry churning during the sample period. We also find that the specialization of construction industry and wholesale and retail trade industry can significantly decrease unemployment rate, but specializing in finance industry increases unemployment rate. Urban growth, market maturity measured by the proportion of private sector employment, and human capital can decrease unemployment rate. The effect of industry structure on unemployment instability is also discussed.     

透视经济高速增长与失业高踞不下

近年来,政府为了解决就业问题,大力发展生产,努力推动积极的就业政策,然而在经济快速发展的同时,就业增长弹性却在下降,城镇登记失业率不降反升。如何辨证地认识目前这种经济高速增长,失业率亦在增长,就业压力日益严重的形势,转变发展观念,将"就业优先"放在社会经济发展战略更     

中国制造业就业增长的反向变动趋势

本文试图考察在我国技术进步偏向资本增加情况下,资本深化对劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型制造业就业增长的反向作用。鉴于我国技术进步具有要素偏向性,本文在构建理论模型时加入有偏技术进步假设,发现在技术进步偏向资本要素投入的条件下,资本深化会加深对就业的负向冲击。并利用wind数据库公布的中国制造业2383家上市企业2007-2018年数据,从横向和纵向两个维度验证了这点,结果发现:(1)在技术进步偏向资本要素投入时,资本劳动比增长率提高会降低整个制造业的就业增长率,技术进步吞噬就业。但是,资本深化对劳动密集型与资本密集型、技术密集型的就业增长作用呈反向趋势。(2)自供给侧结构性改革提出后,该反向变动趋势加强。这意味着,在技术进步和制造业深度融合过程中,劳动者需不断提高自身技能,提高就业竞争力;企业和政府配合提供培训支持,防止工人由于技能不匹配而导致大规模的结构性失业。     

China's value-added tax reform, capital accumulation, and welfare implications

This paper analyzes the effects of China's upcoming value-added tax (VAT) reform of removing investment from the tax base on capital accumulation and the welfare of the rich and the poor. Three alternative methods to make up for the loss of tax revenue are considered. The VAT reform with consumption tax being endogenous increases capital accumulation and the utility of both the rich and the poor. The VAT reform with the labor income tax rate being endogenous increases capital accumulation; and it decreases the utility of the rich and increases the utility of the poor (increases the utility of both the rich and the poor) if the rich has a higher rate or the same rate of time preference (if the rich has a lower rate of time preference). The VAT reform, accompanied by a cut in transfers to the poor, has no effect on capital accumulation if the rich and the poor have the same rate of time preference; it decreases (increases) capital accumulation if the rich has a higher (lower) rate of time preference; and it increases the utility of the rich and decreases the utility of the poor.     

A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China

Our model is a multi-sectoral version of Romer's variety expansion model that reveals the presense of industrial hollowing-out. The basic idea of the model is similar to that of Lucas [Lucas, Robert E., Jr. 1993, “Making a Miracle.” Econometrica 61, p. 273–302.]. An increase in (external) social experience capital through learning by doing raises labor productivity. It also increases the social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods. The model provides the following implications: First, even though the economic growth of China raises the exports of low-level technology goods from neighboring countries to China in the short run, this can lower their future growth potential by lowering the accumulation of social experience capital. Second, without increasing social capacity to adopt more technology-intensive goods, those countries can experience industrial hollowing-out, lower equilibrium wage rates, and a higher unemployment rate. Third, as with conclusions garnered by standard geography models, both a huge market size and very low-level wages in China imply a continuation of discontinuous and lumpy loss of jobs and sectors. In this context, various policies to raise social capacity, besides retraining programs and unemployment safety nets, should be provided by the government to avoid industrial hollowing-out and to allocate labor efficiently.     

外资、产业集聚与失业:新经济地理观

本文整合Harris-Todaro(1970)的城市失业现象与Krugman(1991)的新经济地理理论,建立新经济地理失业模型,探讨外资对于就业、城市失业量(率)与产业结构的影响;焦点置于要素替代差异、Todaro矛盾以及引进外资国家的福利分析。在两国架构中,当引进外资时,若要素替代弹性较低,资本引进国随着制造业扩张,其劳动雇佣量固然上升,但城市失业量亦随之上扬,出现Todaro矛盾现象。反之,在高要素替代情况下,引进外资的国家可能出现制造业就业和城市失业量同时下降的现象。     

Firm specific human capital and unemployment in a growing economy

This study analyzes how the intensive use of firm specific human capital in firms affects the unemployment rate. For this purpose, I introduce into an equilibrium search model the possibility that workers quit their jobs. A worker changes his job when a firm that newly enters into the market offers a higher wage than his current wage. If firm specific human capital is important, it is difficult for a worker to quit his job, and, in consequence, the number of workers who quit their jobs is small. Thus, the unemployment rate is low. If the speed of technology obsolescence is high, the unemployment rate is high.     

Estimating Key Economic Variables: The Policy Implications

The current monetary policy debate has focused on current estimates and the future path of the natural rate of unemployment and the equilibrium interest rate. Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment should vary over time with changes in demographics and improvements in human capital. However, these changes should be gradual. This paper shows that the estimates of the natural rate of unemployment by Federal Reserve officials and private-sector economists seem to move pro-cyclically, potentially showing too much weight given to short-term fluctuations in economic variables. As with the natural rate, there are good reasons to expect the equilibrium interest rate to change over time. In fact, the level may actually be more responsive to current economic data, reflecting changes in aggregate savings and investment. Yet, we see that equilibrium interest rate estimates by both Federal Reserve officials and private-sector economists have declined quite dramatically over the past five years. A potential concern raised in this paper is that estimates of these critical economic variables for policy determination appear to be overly sensitive to high frequency economic data.     

The prospects for informal small businesses in KwaMashu

Government and business interest in the informal sector has been aroused by the sector's perceived ability to provide employment and thus lessen the politically destabilizing effects of unemployment. In the light of research carried out in a black township near Durban, the possible effects of deregulation on the development of the informal sector are examined. It is suggested that, since the sector's principal role was found to be to supplement an often meagre formal sector wage and there were few opportunities for capital accumulation, deregulation alone would be insufficient to promote growth of the sector.     

Sectoral shifts and rates of profit

Summary In this paper the role of the capital market is analysed onthe base of a dynamic two-sector model of a closed economy. The way in which the allocation of investment is related to sectoral differences in the rate of profit and to diverging sectoral capital needs as well, turns out to be of great importance for the whole economy. Conclusions are drawn with regard to the long-run equality of profits after an initial disturbance. The role of the capital market is analysed too in connection with the functioning of sectoral labour markets. As far as unemployment and differing sectoral unemployment rates are concerned, the importance of the labour markets is obviously overwhelming. On that base it is possible to make some remarks on macroeconomic and sectoral investment policies with regard to employment.