The determinants of corporate bond yields

Previous studies have found that common factors explain a high proportion of corporate bond yields. In this paper, we test whether there is a systematic risk premium beyond that implied by a risk-neutral term structure model. We propose a reduced-form term structure model that incorporates both default and tax effects. After controlling the effects of personal taxes and default risk, empirical tests show that at least two of the Fama–French factors are important for corporate bond yields. Our results suggest that term structure models should incorporate aggregate common risk factors in order to better explain the dynamics of corporate bond yields.     

A common-trends and error-correction approach to forecasting corporate bond returns

It is found that one unit root, common trend, is shared by the monthly price indices of the top four ratings of corporate bonds. Addition of an index of low-grade bonds to the vector time series results in two common trends. Consistent results are provided by dynamic factor analyses. The returns for the system of cointegrated indices can be represpnted by an error-correction model using past returns and cointegrating vectors. This model can provide more accurate forecasts than a common VAR that omits the cointegrating vectors. The common-trends analysis provides specific linear combinations, or cointegrating portfolios, of the index price levels that are stationary. The cointegrating portfolios associated with the two common trends have returns that are related to T-bill returns and unanticipated inflation.     

公司治理与内部审计的整合

本文从风险管理的角度阐述了风险管理在公司治理中的核心地位,在对内部审计在风险管理中的作用进行论述的基础上,探讨了如何将内部审计纳入公司治理框架的问题.     

The value added by government venture capital funds compared with independent venture capital funds

Government venture capital (GVC) funds have been a common policy initiative in European countries to overcome funding gaps in the promotion of early-stage ventures. In this work, we focus on the performance of such government funds. We compare the importance for the firm's development of post-investment, valueadded activities by GVC firms and independent venture capital (IVC) firms.We use a unique data set based on the results of a survey addressed to young high-techVC-backed firms from seven European countries. The survey gauged the importance of the contribution by the first lead investor in a variety of activity areas, as assessed by the investee companies. Attention was paid to potential adverse effects of the post-investment engagement of investors.Using a composite indicator of the value added, we find no statistically significant difference between the two types of investors. However, the profiles of value added differ across investor types, and, in particular, the contributions of IVC funds prove to be significantly higher than those of GVC funds in a number of areas, including the development of the business idea, professionalisation and exit orientation.     

Robust performance measures for high yield bond funds

We examine performance measures for high yield bond mutual funds, which are a considerable percentage of taxable bond investments, but have not been widely studied. High yield funds exhibit persistence in their monthly returns, so we calculate Sharpe ratios using methods that incorporate the serial correlation of returns. We find that high yield fund rankings using raw returns and conventionally calculated Sharpe ratios are different from those using trailing standard deviations and robust standard errors. High yield fund rankings based on robust Sharpe ratios also differ from those computed using multi-index Jensen's alphas and information ratios. When measured by risk-adjusted returns, high yield bond fund managers do not add much value.     

A mechanism design approach to allocating central government funds among regional development agencies

To allocate central government funds among regional development agencies, we look for mechanisms that satisfy three important criteria: efficiency, (individual and coalitional) strategy proofness (a.k.a. dominant strategy incentive compatibility), and fairness. We show that only a uniform mechanism satisfies all three. We also show that all efficient and strategy proof mechanisms must function by assigning budget sets to the agencies and letting them freely choose their optimal bundle. In choosing these budget sets, the agencies’ private information has to be taken into account in a particular way. The only way to additionally satisfy a weak fairness requirement (regions with identical preferences should be treated equally) is to assign all agencies the same budget set, as does the uniform mechanism. Finally and maybe more importantly, we show that the central government should not impose constraints on how much to fund an activity (e.g. by reserving some funds only for a particular activity): otherwise, there are no efficient, strategy proof and fair mechanisms, no matter how small these constraints are.     

Volatility forecasting in European government bond markets

In this paper we examine the predictive power of the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model for the return volatility of major European government bond markets. The results from HAR-type volatility forecasting models show that past short- and medium-term volatility are significant predictors of the term structure of the intraday volatility of European bonds with maturities ranging from 1 year up to 30 years. When we decompose bond market volatility into its continuous and discontinuous (jump) component, we find that the jump component is a significant predictor. Moreover, we show that feedback from past short-term volatility to forecasts of future volatility is stronger in the days that precede monetary policy announcements.     

A case study of ethical/green/environmental funds,corporate governance and stakeholder management

This paper investigates how far green, ethical and/or environmental funds are deployed to represent the interests of the individual investors and to what extent the business community is encouraged to adopt ‘greener’ behaviour. Data were collected through a questionnaire and developed in the form of a case study. Twenty green ethical and environmental funds were surveyed in the UK. The main findings are that fund managers claim that their funds are invested on behalf of the investors. They see their fund promoting the ethical/environmental values of the investors. Fund managers further think that they have an influence on companies they invest in and believe in encouraging companies to become better corporate citizens. There is, however, little evidence of funds' action on companies. While green/ethical funds, and more generally the financial community, are potentially powerful instruments of change, they are, however, still very much governed by conventional financial tools and criteria.     

Modeling non-normal corporate bond yield spreads by copula

This research focuses on modeling for how corporate bond yield spreads are affected by explanatory variables such as equity volatility, interest rate volatility, r, slope, rating, liquidity, coupon rate, and maturity. The existing literature assumes normality and linearity in the analysis, which is not the case in our sample. Thus, through a powerful and flexible copula approach, we study the dependence at the mean of the joint distribution by using the Gaussian copula marginal regression method and the dependence structure at the tails by using various copula functions. To our knowledge, this is the first application of the copula marginal regression model to bond market data. In addition, we employ several copula functions to test for the tail dependence between yield spreads and other explanatory variables. We find stronger tail dependence in the joint upper tail for the relation between equity volatility and yield spreads, among others. This result indicates the positive effect of equity volatility on yield spreads in the upper tail is greater than that in the low tail. This finding should be useful to practitioners, such as investors. By relying on better-fitting, more meaningful statistical models, this paper contributes to the extant literature on how corporate bond yield spreads are determined.     

Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields

Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last 20 years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach nor the equilibrium approach. Instead, we use variations on the Nelson–Siegel exponential components framework to model the entire yield curve, period-by-period, as a three-dimensional parameter evolving dynamically. We show that the three time-varying parameters may be interpreted as factors corresponding to level, slope and curvature, and that they may be estimated with high efficiency. We propose and estimate autoregressive models for the factors, and we show that our models are consistent with a variety of stylized facts regarding the yield curve. We use our models to produce term-structure forecasts at both short and long horizons, with encouraging results. In particular, our forecasts appear much more accurate at long horizons than various standard benchmark forecasts.     

Economic freedom and the mispricing of single-state municipal bond closed-end funds

The Economic Freedom of North America Index (EFI) is a measure of the state-level institutional characteristics that promote economic activity. We use this index as a proxy for the degree of local market segmentation and test the hypothesis that single-state, municipal bond closed-end fund mispricing can be partially explained by a state’s EFI value. Using panel data analysis we find that EFI is significant in explaining observed variability in fund mispricing.     

Cross-shareholding network and corporate bond financing cost in China

This study examines the effect of cross-shareholding network centrality on the cost of corporate bond financing. Based on a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms that issued general corporate bonds from 2007 to 2018, we adopt a social network analysis method and use three indicators (Degree, Betweenness, and Eigenvector) and the principal factor (Composite) extracted from them to measure the firms’ centrality in the cross-shareholding network. We find that bondholders’ demand lowers bond yield spreads for firms with higher cross-shareholding network centrality. In further analyses, we explore the impact mechanisms using mediator models and find that such centrality promotes resource accessing, information disclosure, and corporate governance, thus decreasing corporate bond financing cost. In addition, we incorporate the moderate effect of geographical location and find that the relationship between cross-shareholding network centrality and corporate bond financing cost is more significant in firms located in remote places.     

Applications of machine learning for corporate bond yield spread forecasting

This article considers nine different predictive techniques, including state-of-the-art machine learning methods for forecasting corporate bond yield spreads with other input variables. We examine each method’s out-of-sample forecasting performance using two different forecast horizons: (1) the in-sample dataset over 2003–2007 is used for one-year-ahead and two-year-ahead forecasts of non-callable corporate bond yield spreads; and (2) the in-sample dataset over 2003–2008 is considered to forecast the yield spreads in 2009. Evaluations of forecasting accuracy have shown that neural network forecasts are superior to the other methods considered here in both the short and longer horizon. Furthermore, we visualize the determinants of yield spreads and find that a firm’s equity volatility is a critical factor in yield spreads.     

Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?

This paper examines the time varying nature of European government bond market integration by employing multivariate GARCH models. We state that unlike other bond markets, in euro markets the default(credit) risk factor and other macroeconomic and fiscal indicators are not able to explain the sovereign bond yields after the beginning of monetary union. This fact might be counted as a signal for perfect financial integration. However, we also find that the global shocks affect Germany and the rest of euro bond markets in various levels, creating particular discrepancies in asset prices even we take into account the market specific factors. Different level responses of each euro market to the global shocks reveal that euro bond markets are not fully integrated with each other unlike the recent literature claimed. Besides, we explore that the global factors are effective for the volatility of yield differentials among euro government bonds.     

西方公司治理模式的比较及其在我国的选择

文章首先从公司治理的理论渊源及其内涵入手,进而论述了西方发达国家两种不同的公司治理模式并对其进行了比较,在此基础上,笔者结合我国的具体国情,借鉴西方公司治理的经验,认为我国公司治理模式的最佳选择是利益相关者模式。     

Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model

This paper proposes an extension to Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) models to capture time-varying interdependence among financial variables. Government bond spreads in the euro area feature a time-varying pattern of co-movement that poses a serious challenge for econometric modelling and forecasting. This pattern of the data is not captured by the standard specification that model spreads as persistent processes reverting to a time-varying mean determined by two factors: a local factor, driven by fiscal fundamentals and growth, and a global world factor, driven by the market’s appetite for risk. This paper argues that a third factor, expectations of exchange rate devaluation, gained traction during the crises. This factor is well captured via a GVAR that models the interdependence among spreads by making each country’s spread function of global European spreads. Global spreads capture the exposure of each country’s spread to other spreads in the euro area in terms of the time-varying ‘distance’ between their fiscal fundamentals. This new specification dominates the standard one in modelling the time-varying pattern of co-movements among spreads and the response of euro area spreads to the Greek debt crisis.     

Logit versus discriminant analysis: A specification test and application to corporate bankruptcies

Two of the most widely used statistical techniques for analyzing discrete economic phenomena are discriminant analysis (DA) and logit analysis. For purposes of parameter estimation, logit has been shown to be more robust than DA. However, under certain distributional assumptions both procedures yield consistent estimates and the DA estimator is asymptotically efficient. This suggests a natural Hausman specification test of these distributional assumptions by comparing the two estimators. In this paper, such a test is proposed and an empirical example involving corporate bankruptcies is provided. The finite-sample properties of the test statistic are also explored through some sampling experiments.     

现代公司治理结构模式的比较与分析

公司治理结构在不同的经济条件下会形成不同的模式，同时在不同国家由于文化及制度等因素的影响也会有不同的形式，本文就目前世界上存在的几种主要治理结构模式进行了分析和对比，如英美模式、日德模式等，并在此基础上针对我国的实际情况提出了一些建议。     

General Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields

US yield curve dynamics are subject to time-variation, but there is ambiguity about its precise form. This paper develops a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, which treats the nature of parameter dynamics as unknown. Coefficients can evolve according to a random walk, a Markov switching process, observed predictors, or depend on a mixture of these. To decide which form is supported by the data and to carry out model selection, we adopt Bayesian shrinkage priors. Our framework is applied to model the US yield curve. We show that the model forecasts well, and focus on selected in-sample features to analyze determinants of structural breaks in US yield curve dynamics.     

The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries

This paper investigates the influence of government debt and primary balance on long-term government bond yields in 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in the period 2000–2013. The results indicate that a one percentage point increase in the stock of government debt is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 2.7–4 basis points, while a one percentage point increase in the primary deficit to GDP ratio is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 12.9–24.3 basis points. We also find evidence of non-linearities in the debt-interest rate relationship, whereby the threshold after which the impact of debt turns from negative to positive is significantly lower than in advanced economies.