Investment behavior and investment aggregates during China’s economic transition

In view of the peculiar patterns of investment ownership structure and special investment phenomena in China, the paper sets up formal dynamic investment behavioral models for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs) under the background of full-dimensional and gradual economic transition. The models are based on two key points: entrepreneurs of SOEs have dual and changing operational objectives as the result of property-rights reformation; and dual-track approach of price liberalization process and reformation of financing system alters the actual user costs of capital goods. Analytical solutions are provided and it is shown that there exists a normative and unified explanation of the peculiar phenomena such as “investment deficiency” of NSOEs, “investment thirst”, “investment inefficiency,” and dual shrinkage of SOEs in both investment and output. Our research also sheds lights on evaluation of preceding reforms, understanding of SOEs’ losses and bad bank loans. The paper partially justifies the property-rights-oriented reformation of SOEs. __________ Translated from the China Economic Quarterly (经恎学季刊),2005, (7) (in Chinese)     

Changes in household composition as a shock-mitigating strategy

This paper uses data from the Russian Longitudinal Survey that span the two recent economic recessions of 1998 and 2008 to study the effect of declining incomes on household composition. We hypothesize that individuals face a trade-off between taking advantage of economies of scale and specialization when living with others, and individual privacy. Consumption smoothing is achieved by forgoing privacy during the crisis and results in increases in household size. Our empirical results suggest that members of households that experienced negative income shocks are more likely to move in with others compared to individuals residing in households whose income remained the same or increased.     

The J-Curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach

This article examines the J-curve phenomenon for 16 European transition economies. While previous studies assume a linear relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance, this paper allows for nonlinearity. Following Bahmani-Oskooee and Fariditavana (2015 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and H. Fariditavana. 2015. “Nonlinear ARDL Approach, Asymmetric Effects and the J-curve.” Journal of Economic Studies 42 (3): 519–530. doi:10.1108/JES-03-2015-0042.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2016 Bahmani-Oskooee, M., and H. Fariditavana. 2016. “Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the J-curve Phenomenon.” Open Economies Review 27 (1): 51–70. doi:10.1007/s11079-015-9369-5.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the empirical method used is the nonlinear cointegrating autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin et al. (2013 Shin, Y., B. Yu, and M. J. Greenwood-Nimmo. 2013. “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework.” In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, edited by William C. Horrace and Robin C. Sickles. New York, NY: Springer Science and Business Media. [Google Scholar]) in which short-run and long-run nonlinearities are introduced via positive (appreciation) and negative (depreciation) partial sum decompositions of the real exchange rate. We argue that the lack of support for the J-curve phenomenon could be due to the linearity assumption. This issue is examined by utilizing the linear and the NARDL models. Using the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we are unable to find support for the J-curve phenomenon in any case. However, when the NARDL model is used, we are able to find evidence for the J-curve in 12 out of the 16 countries. This suggests that allowing for nonlinearity in the adjustment process is important when studying the J-curve phenomenon.     

Foreign direct investment in economic transition: the changing pattern of investments

Foreign direct investment into transition economies is reviewed in detail, both from aggregate data and from a survey of senior managers in 117 western manufacturing companies. It is found that host country transition progress, political stability and perceived risk influence FDI inflows as well as the predominant type of investment.     

Investor sentiment and the financial crisis: a sentiment-based portfolio theory perspective

The article proposes a portfolio model subjected to a constraint that captures the investor’s goal, with maximum estimation of expected return that is affected by investor sentiment. And we give a solution of the portfolio model by exploring the geometric features. Furthermore, we discuss the relationship between investor sentiment and the financial crisis by analysing the optimal allocation. The results show that: when investor sentiment is low enough, the investor should reject the investment, this condition leads the depression financial market to prevail, then the financial crisis erupts; when investor sentiment is modest, the financial crisis is difficult to erupt unless the decline of investor sentiment is quick and deep; but there is a special status that the financial crisis is caused by other factors rather than by investor sentiment; and only improving investor sentiment cannot move away from the financial crisis.     

The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows

This paper examines the effects of transition and of political instability on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the transition economies of Central Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. We find that FDI flows to transition economies unaffected by conflict and political instability exceed those that would be expected for comparable West European countries. Success with stabilization and reform increased the volume of FDI inflows. In the case of Balkan counties, conflict and instability reduced FDI inflows below what one would expect for comparable West European countries, and reform and stabilization failures further reduced FDI to the region. Thus, we find that the economic costs of instability in the Balkans in terms of foregone FDI have been quite high.     

Privatization and corruption in transition economies: a panel study

By using three corruption indices, six privatization indicators, and taking the endogeneity problem into consideration, we test the hypothesis that privatization contributes to a decrease in corruption in transition economies. We identified a highly statistically significant and negative association between privatization and corruption in transition economies for three different corruption indices and six different privatization indicators.     

A currency preferential approach to international equity investment

We propose a Timex strategy for reducing the foreign exchange risk associated with international equity investment, pertaining to countries with currencies correctly or undervalued by the standard of PPP. The performance of Timex is examined from the perspectives of eight developed nations with long histories of free-floating currencies. Based on the data from 1986:Q1 to 2014:Q4, we find unambiguous evidence for the superior performance of Timex in the foreign exchange market. Compared with the passive diversification strategy and the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World index, Timex offers higher total returns and risk-adjusted total returns when rebalanced every 6 or 12 months for investors based in all eight countries under study. When rebalanced at a 3-year interval, Timex outperforms the passive diversification and the MSCI World index for five and all eight countries, respectively.     

A portfolio approach to climate investments: CAPM and endogenous risk

Is there a role for investments in climate change mitigation despite low expected return? We use a model of intertemporal expected utility maximisation to analyse this question. Similar to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) the rate of return depends on the correlation of risk between the return on investments in climate change mitigation and the market portfolio, but in contrast to the classical CAPM we admit the fact that economic and environmental systems are jointly determined, implying that environmental risk is endogenous. Therefore, investments in climate change mitigation may reduce risk via self-protection and self-insurance. If risk reduction is accounted for in cost–benefit evaluations, climate investments may be justified despite low expected return. These aspects of climate investments are not, however, communicated via standard cost–benefit analyses of climate policy. Optimal climate policy may therefore be more ambitious than previously considered.     

Competition, entry and the social returns to infrastructure in transition economies

This paper presents a simple model for analysing the contribution of investments in physical and institutional infrastructure to the transition process. In addition to the direct cost savings, infrastructure investment generates important indirect effects, or transition impacts . The model shows that, by reducing transaction costs, infrastructure intensifies product market competition. This leads to more effective weeding out of the existing high-cost firms in the market. In this model, infrastructure also increases the incentives for low-cost firms to restructure which generates additional efficiency gains, but exacerbates the existing cost asymmetry in the economy. Finally, infrastructure investment enhances the incentives for relatively low-cost firms to enter the market, and thus improves the efficiency of the entry process. The importance of these transition impacts of infrastructure is dependent upon features of the economy, such as the degree of cost asymmetry among firms, the proportion of high-cost firms, the cost of restructuring and entry costs for new firms.
JEL classification: L1, O1, P2.     

A portfolio approach to the optimal mix of funded and unfunded pensions

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we address the optimal funding of pensions by means of portfolio choice approach. Considering the unfunded (Paygo) pension system as a ‘quasi-asset’ with hedging and diversification properties, we derive the optimal portfolio mix of funded and Paygo systems within a mean variance and Bell linear exponential models. Our analysis involves both analytical computations and empirical estimations of optimal values using real long-term data for equity, bonds and the Paygo asset for several OECD countries and several time periods covering the time span 1897–2016. We find that in most cases a mix of both systems is desirable with a larger magnitude of Paygo system in the case of the Bell framework as we capture attitudes towards asymmetry and tail risks that are typical to equity markets.     

Agglomeration economies and location choice: Foreign direct investment in Hungary1

Since the beginning of the transition process, Hungary has attracted a significant amount of foreign direct investment (FDI), although this is unevenly distributed among the twenty Hungarian counties. This paper examines the determinants of FDI at a regional level in Hungary and more particularly assesses the importance of agglomeration effects among determinants. A panel model of the location determinants of FDI in Hungary is developed and estimated. Empirical testing suggests that counties with higher labour availability, greater industrial demand and higher manufacturing density attract more FDI. Surprisingly, higher unit labour costs attract FDI. In addition, inter‐industrial agglomeration economies and infrastructure availability are found to be important.     

Trade liberalization and political support in transition economies

Most transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe have rather surprisingly resisted protectionist pressures-at least during early stages of reform-and pursued fairly liberal trade policies. In this paper, trade policy during transition is explained from a political economy perspective. It is shown that pursuing liberal trade policies can be a rational strategy of reform politicians, maximizing the probability of electoral success.     

Industrial structure and jobless growth in transition economies

When does employment growth mirror aggregate growth? Applying a two sector model, where productivity growth differs across sectors of production, this article is concerned with a feature characterising a number of transition economies: a divergence between production and employment growth. In our framework the industrial structure that allows employment growth to mirror output growth is endogenous, and related to a number of industry- and economy-wide characteristics. The article shows how the critical industrial structure necessary for avoiding ‘jobless growth’ is context-specific, questioning a ‘one size fits all’ policy approach when aiming to fulfil the Europe 2020 Strategy.     

Enterprise restructuring and bank competition in transition economies

We investigate how bank competition affects the efficiency of credit allocation, using a model of spatial competition. Our analysis shows that bad loans are more likely the larger the number of banks competing for customers. We study further how many banks will be active if market entry is not regulated. Free entry can induce too much entry and thus too many bad loans compared to the social optimum. Finally we analyse how bank competition affects the restructuring efforts of firms. We find that restructuring has positive externalities which give rise to multiple equilibria, with either much or little restructuring activity.
JEL classification: D43, G21, G34, L13, P31, P34.     

Restructuring financial systems in transition and developing economies: an approach based on the French financial system

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the redesigning of financial systems in Central and Eastern European and developing countries by focusing attention on specific financial institutions appropriate to easing the transition and fostering the creation of markets. The paper argues that the immediate emulation of the better-known institutions of the most developed, market-based financial systems, i.e. the US and the UK, should not be taken for granted. It underlines, instead, the importance of drawing inspiration from the experiences of a variety of institutions and financial systems. Particularly relevant are those systems that have experienced forms of transition and a mix, over time, of market and state intervention.
The approach of this paper is one of institutional financial economics (Neave, 1991 and Williamson, 1986), in which structural details of financial institutions and contracts, in our case French financial institutions, are analysed. We argue that the principles on which some French financial institutions are based and aspects of their functioning are of value to reformers. We discuss the lessons that can be learnt from the Crédit National, the Commissariat Général du Plan, the CODEVI and the SOFARIS.     

Uncertainty shocks and asymmetric dynamics in Korea: a non-linear approach

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic activity in Korea. For this purpose, a Smooth Transition VAR model is employed to document the state-dependent dynamics of two distinct types of uncertainty shocks, namely, financial market based and news-based. When non-linearity is allowed to play a role in our model, quantitatively very different asymmetric dynamics are observed. Following inflation targeting, the responses tend to be smoother and less pronounced. Our empirical results support the view that the link between uncertainty and macroeconomic activity is clear over both recessions and expansions. Furthermore, the impact of uncertainty shocks is more pronounced when economic activity is depressed especially after shocks originate from the financial market, and not from news-based policy uncertainty in Korea.     

Institutional design and the closure of public facilities in transition economies

As part of the reforms of their systems for financing and delivering health care, many transition economies, particularly in central and eastern Europe, have adopted national insurance funds that are institutionally separate from ministries of health. Most of these countries have also grappled with the problem of restructuring the delivery system, especially the need to reduce hospital capacity. Although improving the performance of medical care providers through a shift from passive budgeting to explicitly incentive mechanisms is important, why this change in financial relations between the government and providers could not be implemented simply by reforming the role of health ministries is not obvious. This paper presents an explicit rationale for the separation of powers between the regulator (the ministry of health) and the financing body (the insurance fund), based on the inability of a single agency to commit to closing hospitals. JEL classification: L51, P20, P35, I18.     

Assessing efficiency and investment opportunities in commodities: A time series and portfolio simulations approach

This paper investigates the informational efficiency hypothesis in the short and long term for four major commodity markets (oil, gas, electricity, and coal) from January 1997 to January 2016. Unlike previous studies, we provide a more concise comparative analysis by focusing on different classes of commodities for a large sample, including 5 developed and 3 emerging regions and covering 46 countries. We apply different parametric and non-parametric econometric tests. Our study provides two interesting findings. First, we show that commodity markets are informationally inefficient in the short term. Our portfolio simulations highlight that commodities might provide “good” investment opportunities, but those opportunities vary according to commodity class and regions. Second, we show that most commodity markets become informationally efficient in the long term, thereby reducing investors' interest for the duration. Thus, commodity markets might be used to hedge investor’s portfolios, particularly for speculators and chartists in the short term, while these investments might not be appealing in these markets in the long term.     

Access pricing and investment: a real options approach

This paper examines a three-period model of an investment decision in a network industry characterized by demand uncertainty, economies of scale and sunk costs. In the absence of regulation we identify the market conditions under which a monopolist decides to invest early as well as the overall welfare generated by this decision. In a regulated environment, we consider a vertically integrated network provider that is required to provide access to downstream competitors and compare two distinct access pricing methodologies: the Efficient Component Pricing Rule (ECPR) and the Option to Delay Pricing Rule (ODPR). We identify the welfare-maximizing access prices using the unregulated market output as a benchmark and show that optimal access regulation depends on market conditions (that is, the nature of demand) with two possible outcomes: (i) access prices that provide a positive payoff to the incumbent, that is, provide a positive compensation to account for the option to delay; and (ii) access prices that yield a zero payoff to the incumbent. Moreover, unlike the earlier literature that argues in favor of an ECPR-type methodology to account for the interaction between irreversibility and demand uncertainty, we find that, except under very specific conditions, an access price that accounts for the option to delay value is welfare-superior to the ECPR.