REAL AND DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM PRICE LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

The effect of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in the price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.     

DEVELOPING EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF INNOVATIONS: MICROECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN

This paper aims to identify the effects of innovation on employment and labor composition in Taiwan. Using a new and detailed firm‐level data set, the empirical results determine that innovations, measured by R&D investments or patent counts, have a positive impact on employment. Both of the estimated employment effects of product and process innovations are overall significantly positive. Although the effects of process innovations differ between high and low R&D‐intensive industries, the process innovation tends to expand the firms’ output and then increase employment for high R&D‐intensive industries. However, it frequently results in laborsavings in terms of production work and reduces jobs in low R&D‐intensive industries. Moreover, technological innovations are found to be non‐neutral, leading to a shift in labor composition in favor of skilled and more educated workers.     

THE PROCESS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION IN TAIWAN

The industrialization of Taiwan has recently been in the limelight as an example of success rare among those underdeveloped countries which have received U.S. aid. This does not mean, however, that the achievement of industrialization in Taiwan has necessarily been due to U. S. aid. Cleraly, a more basic factor supporting the progress of industrialization has been the high level of accumulation in the agricultural sector, which has its historical foundation in the development of agriculture. The function of such accumulation has been to sustain the rapidly expanding surplus population; to provide an abundant labor force; and to form the base for capital formation for labor-intensive industry. The bold introduction of foreign capital and technology, resting upon this solid achievement, has provided the opportunity for industrial development.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF OECD GROWTH FOR SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORTS

This paper examines the role of OECD growth on South African exports using a vector error correction model. In the long run both OECD growth and the real effective exchange rate were found to influence South Africa's export performance, while in the short run, the real effective exchange rate was found to be an important driver of export growth. The policy implications that emerge from the study underscore the importance of fully exploiting current trading relationships, diversifying South African export destinations and enhancing competitiveness.     

USING THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION TO EXAMINE ASYMMETRIC PRICE ADJUSTMENTS BETWEEN ADR'S AND THEIR UNDERLYING SECURITIES - THE CASE OF TAIWAN

Many recent studies have focused on the relationship between American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and their foreign underlying stocks, because of the price interaction and arbitrage opportunities provided by the dual listings. The cointegration and its corresponding error correction model employed in some recent studies assume that the tendency to move towards a long‐run equilibrium is present all the time. However, the presence of costs of adjustments may prevent economic agents from adjusting continuously. As an extension of previous studies, this paper applies the threshold cointegration model that allows for asymmetric adjustment towards a long‐run equilibrium to inspect the linkage between Taiwanese ADRs and their underlying shares. By employing the threshold error correction model, the short‐term adjustments also are examined. We find some evidence of asymmetric adjustments in our data. The tests for asymmetries are also implemented with the maximum likelihood estimation for the complete multivariate threshold cointegration model instead of the univariate model.     

EXPLORING THE SPECTRUM OF EXPORT DESTINATION: THE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD OF KOREAN EXPORTS,ITS DETERMINANTS,AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Recent research in international trade has explored the stylized facts and causes and effects of export diversification. A simple model in this paper drawing on the work of Melitz suggests that there is an order in which a country spreads its goods to foreign countries. We estimate the order by using a methodology which takes account of the fact that most goods are not exported to several countries in our sample (unbalanced panel). We find that Korea exports its new goods first to the United States, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and most recently to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Finally we find that the countries that Korea has exported to first are those with large GDP, low tariff rates, geographic proximity, language familiarity, in-country Korean export promotion offices, and high-quality institutions.     

STRATEGIC ELEMENTS IN THE RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH OF TAIWAN

The termination of the Japanese colonial tie, the new supply of American aid, and the peculiar domestic conditions, etc., acted, through multiple processes, as impeding as well as accelerating factors for the post-war economic development of Taiwan. By tracing these processes, the author tries to suggest that there may be such general factors as will effectively be applicable to the other underdeveloped countries on the one hand, and such historical, social, and international factors which may preclude their ready applicability on the other.