Order imbalance and the dynamics of index and futures prices

This study uses transaction records of index futures and index stocks, with bid/ask price quotes, to examine the impact of stock market order imbalance on the dynamic behavior of index futures and cash index prices. Spurious correlation in the index is purged by using an estimate of the “true” index with highly synchronous and active quotes of individual stocks. A smooth transition autoregressive error correction model is used to describe the nonlinear dynamics of the index and futures prices. Order imbalance in the cash stock market is found to affect significantly the error correction dynamics of index and futures prices. Order imbalance impedes error correction particularly when the market impact of order imbalance works against the error correction force of the cash index, explaining why real potential arbitrage opportunities may persist over time. Incorporating order imbalance in the framework significantly improves its explanatory power. The findings indicate that a stock market microstructure that allows a quick resolution of order imbalance promotes dynamic arbitrage efficiency between futures and underlying stocks. The results also suggest that the unloading of cash stocks by portfolio managers in a falling market situation aggravates the price decline and increases the real cost of hedging with futures. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1129–1157, 2007     

The exchange rate crisis of September 1992 and the pricing of Italian financial futures

The futures contracts on long term bonds issued by the Italian Treasury and the futures contracts on Eurolira deposits traded in the LIFFE have reacted in a specular way to the exchange rate crisis of September 1992. The pricing of the Italian Government Bonds (BTP) futures becomes more volatile and seems to be affected by a time-varying risk premium. The pricing of Eurolira futures becomes more efficient after the crisis and its volatility declines. These results indicate that the credibility crisis of the Italian Government bonds does not spill over to the off-shore Eurolira assets. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:827–849, 1998     

Emerging markets before the 1997 Asia Pacific financial crisis

This study investigates which Asia Pacific markets were driven by the US stock market and which by the Japanese stock market during the 1995-97 period, right before the 1997 Asia Pacific financial crisis. The results show that stock markets of Hong Kong, Indonesia and Malaysia shared a long-run equilibrium relationship with the US stock market. The stock market of the Philippines was linked with both the US stock market and the Japanese stock market, while stock markets of Thailand and South Korea did not appear to be influenced by either. Countries whose capital markets had a co-integrating relationship with the US market pegged their national currencies closely to the US dollar.     

Pricing basket and Asian options under the jump‐diffusion process

This study derives approximate valuation formulas for basket options and Asian options under the jump‐diffusion process. To obtain an approximation for options prices under the jump‐diffusion process, we extend the Taylor expansion method developed by Ju N. ( 2002 ) under the diffusion process. We show that the Taylor expansion method, suggested in this study, provides better pricing performance as compared to log‐normal or four‐moment methods. The performance improvement using the Taylor expansion method increases as the time to maturity increases. In addition, our numerical analysis shows that jump effects become significant when the expected jump sizes take large negative values. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:830–854, 2011     

The stability of the Renminbi in the wake of the Asian financial crisis

In the wake of the Asian crisis, a possible devaluation of the Chinese currency has come to the forefront of the academic debate. The currency collapse of the Asian amerging economies has indeed left the Renminbi overvalued relative to its main regional competitors. This article explores the credibility of the ‘no devaluation’ pledge made by the Chinese policymakers.     

股指期货的推出对我国金融市场的影响及策略研究

股指期货的推出作为完善证券市场运行机制的一部分,是我国金融发展的必然要求.如何利用股指期货的积极作用,同时防范其消极影响,成为我国证券市场面临的又一个挑战.本文通过论述股指期货的积极影响和不利因素,并结合我国的具体情况,提出我国发展股指期货的相应措施,以便对我国顺利发展股指期货有所帮助.     

The Hong Kong Equity Market and an Institutional Framework for Asset Pricing

Given the potential implications of market structure for asset pricing, this paper examines the structural and institutional features of the Hong Kong equity market and their relevance to explaining market behaviour. It was found that the Hong Kong market appears less perfect and hence less efficient than their counterparts in the more developed economies, such as the USA and the UK, so that market disequilibrium and asset mispricing might have occurred. This paper adds value to the literature as the findings provide an institutional framework for analysing and explaining the results from empirical asset pricing work, past and future, on the Hong Kong market. This has far-reaching implications for financial decisions.     

Reconstructing volatility: Pricing of index options under rough volatility

Avellaneda et al. (2002, 2003) pioneered the pricing and hedging of index options – products highly sensitive to implied volatility and correlation assumptions – with large deviations methods, assuming local volatility dynamics for all components of the index. We present an extension applicable to non-Markovian dynamics and in particular the case of rough volatility dynamics.     

Austerity in the Baltic states during the global financial crisis

The Baltic states were arguably the countries most severely affected by the global financial crisis. This article discusses the boom preceding the crisis, the ensuing austerity policies and the economic effects of these policies. All three countries maintained fixed exchange rates, but the degree of fiscal austerity varied across the countries, with Estonia undertaking the strongest fiscal consolidation in 2009. The downturn was so swift and deep that expansionary policies were unlikely to affect short-term outcomes. Growth returned towards the end of 2009, largely driven by exports. The export performance cannot be directly linked to the austerity policies. The main lesson from the Baltics is that increased macroeconomic stability must be attained by avoiding overheating and unsustainable financial exposure. The challenge for the future is to ensure that austerity policies are implemented during economic booms.     

Pricing and hedging in the freight futures market

In this article, we consider the pricing and hedging of single‐route dry bulk freight futures contracts traded on the International Maritime Exchange. Thus far, this relatively young market has received almost no academic attention. In contrast to many other commodity markets, freight services are non‐storable, making a simple cost‐of‐carry valuation impossible. We empirically compare the pricing and hedging accuracy of a variety of continuous‐time futures pricing models. Our results show that the inclusion of a second stochastic factor significantly improves the pricing and hedging accuracy. Overall, the results indicate that the Schwartz and Smith ( 2000 ) two‐factor model provides the best performance. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:440–464, 2011