An Investment Analysis and Decision Making Framework for Real Estate Development*

Recent research analyzing real estate investment decisionmaking has concentrated upon existing income properties. Projects planned for future development have been analyzed as though they were completed and generating rental income. Such analysis has not considered the impact of development period decisions upon operating cash flow and hence project value. This paper proposes a framework for investment analysis which accurately reflects the interrelatedness of the development and operating periods of the real estate development process. A stochastic Markov process is used to develop a model which treats the development and operating periods as an integrated system. The resulting model allows project investment decisions to be made on the basis of a minimum expected profitability index distribution and/or terminal value.     

Inflation and Housing Prices*

Home ownership is a claim on the stream of net rents. Like any income-producing asset, the market capitalizes its value. The price-rent multiple depends upon the expected growth rate of revenues and expenses, on financing terms, and on taxes. This paper derives this price-rent multiple in terms of these variables and calculates its value from 1963 through 1978. The results indicate that housing prices grew more rapidly than rents and the CPI largely as the result of a 33% increase in the price-rent multiple over those years. This increase in the capitalization rate occurred, despite higher nominal financing terms, because the relative terms of housing finance tended to ease and because the expected growth rate of rents increased more than its discount rate.     

Multifamily Distress: A Case for National Action*

Among other reasons, controlling financial distress in the conventional multifamily sector is important because of the neighborhood destabilizing effects of partially occupied and vacant buildings and the potential lending cutbacks that could be made by financial intermediaries whose loan portfolios may contain substantial numbers of older, failing rental properties. This article develops the case for a heightened national concern for the importance of this inventory to the housing welfare of the nation, particularly lower income and minorities; and then by analyzing the known levels of distress in the FHA insured unsubsidized stock. Failure rates in this portion of the multifamily sector are sufficiently great to suggest that similar problems already plague the conventional market and that such distress should be of major policy interest. The final section propose the development of a multifamily research and demonstration program as a basis for national action.     

新住房政策下房地产开发企业的对策

章主要从新的住房政策的两个核心内容出发,提出了房地产开发企业在深入理解新住房政策的基础上尽快消化已建成的空置商品房,以及商品房与经济适用房同步开发等方面应采取的对策。     

North-South Differences in Housing and the Housing and Community Development Act of 19771

During the past two decades the South has experienced more vigorous urban development than the North. In response to this continuing trend, the Congress has recently enacted legislation that provides increased levels of Federal assistance to slower growing communities and those whose housing stocks are disproportionately old, thus providing increased benefits to northern cities. Data from the Annual Housing Survey are examined to establish differences between housing conditions in these two regions, and the potential of the newly-established regionally targeted allocation schemes toward achieving national housing goals is discussed.     

A Cash Flow Model of Rational Housing Tenure Choice*

This paper develops a model of housing costs in a cash flow framework. The cash flow approach allows both the consumption and investment aspects of tenure choice to be analyzed. By solving the model for the rental flow equivalent to any owning situation, we can determine whether or not a household would buy or rent from an economic perspective. The results are very sensitive to the household's income, the expected duration of occupancy, the mortgage interest rate, and inflation expectations. The results suggest that “rule-of-thumb” generalizations about tenure choice are often ill-founded, and that studies of tenure choice need to explicitly consider the interaction of income, taxes, length of occupancy and expectations.     

Conceptualizing Innovation Orientation: A Framework for Study and Integration of Innovation Research*

The term innovation orientation has been frequently used in the innovation literature, but with a mix of conceptualizations and meanings. Drawing from work found in the innovation, management, and marketing literatures over the past 35 years, the concept of innovation orientation as a system is conceptualized and defined in this article. The domain of innovation orientation is delineated as a multidimensional knowledge structure and a framework for understanding innovation orientation and its consequences in an organizational context are developed. The framework defines the innovation orientation knowledge structure as composed of a learning philosophy, strategic direction, and transfunctional beliefs within an organization that define and direct the organizational strategies and actions toward specific innovation‐enabling competencies and processes. These innovation‐oriented firm competencies are in the areas of resource allocation, technology, employees, operations, and markets. The framework then explains that these appropriately developed innovation‐enabling competencies lead to innovation outcomes, specifically ideal innovation form, type, and rate that, in turn, affect firm performance. An inventory of propositions for future research that correspond to the innovation orientation concept is also presented in this comprehensive framework. This study provides two important contributions to the existing innovation literature. First, the article examines the vast innovation literature to arrive at a clear definition of the innovation orientation construct to provide a consistent conceptualization for future research. Second, the article develops a comprehensive, organized framework for understanding innovation orientation and its effects. In doing this, the framework extends the dynamic capabilities research stream by offering an explanation of how innovation orientation fosters the development of organizational competencies and makes it possible for a firm to recognize and respond to shifts in market dynamism.     

促进循环经济发展的税收政策研究——一个新的理论分析框架

“十一五”规划明确提出“发展循环经济,保护生态环境,加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会”并实行“促进循环经济发展的财税政策”。文章在“资源开采—产品生产—节能环保消费—产品进出口—废弃物排放”新分析框架下,从循环经济视角透析了与诸环节相关的各税种在功能定位、征税范围、计税依据、税率、税收优惠等方面存在的问题,提出了优化税收政策的建议。     

论住房制度改革及住房保障的发展

通过系统的回顾我国住房制度改革的发展历史,以及对住房市场和住房保障两条发展路线的梳理,结合福利经济学的观点,提出住房保障是住房市场的必要补充,是对社会财富合理再分配的观点.提出了住房保障应当与住房市场相互协调,住房保障的规模要与经济发展水平、社会发展阶段相适应的相互发展关系.     

工程供应链管理研究综述

供应链管理作为一个创新的管理模式从系统的角度为解决工程建设项目高分散性、超预算、返工、拖延工期、冲突等问题提供了新方法。文章在分析建筑工程项目特点的基础上,探讨了工程供应链和传统的制造供应链的差异;并参照一般供应链管理研究的分类方式对工程供应链研究内容进行分类;从工程供应链的战略思想、活动管理、关系管理和信息管理的角度进行文献的回顾和梳理;最后指出未来工程供应链的研究方向。     

Inflation,Taxes, and the Demand For Housing*

Inflation affects homeownership and housing adversely through the “real-payment tilt” of the conventional mortgage. Expectations of additional housing price appreciation, however, may induce households to invest in housing. This paper uses household data to estimate the demand for homeownership and housing, and it takes explicit notice of expectations of housing price appreciation. The results indicate for each 1% increase in the inflation rate that the conditional probability of purchase falls by 3%. Interest rate effects outweigh appreciation and tax effects. Given the decision to purchase, housing appreciation expectations do not have large effects on the amount purchased.     

A Future for Public Housing

Two primary reforms are needed for the future success of the current public housing program: revision of the funding system for operating subsidy and development of a strategy for capital improvements and future use of the inventory. The current funding system has been criticized because of the dramatic growth in operating costs in the last decade and because of apparent over-funding of some public housing authorities (PHAs) and a distributional bias against housing authorities operating in distressed environments. Either a cost-based operating subsidy system or a market-rent based system would have strengths as well as weaknesses. Either type of system can provide adequate, fair, constrained, and predictable subsidies. The current level of deterioration of the public housing stock, the concentration of social and physical problems in 7-to-15% of the inventory, and the perverse incentives of the present modernization program, suggest a need for reform of the capital improvement funding system. Each PHA should be provided fixed levels of funds, based on its needs, both for rehabilitating and maintaining projects. Further, a project-by-project assessment should be made to identify those which cannot be cost-effectively managed or rehabilitated.
The President's Commission on Housing contributed importantly to public discussion of these policy areas, by recommending a dramatic reassessment of each project and its future use in the context of a change to a market-based subsidy system.     

Savings and Loan Demand for Liquid Assets: Theory,Evidence and Implications for Policy*

In this study a model of liquid asset management for individual savings and loan associations is developed. The model combines features of portfolio theory and inventory theory and is used to draw hypotheses on the relationship between the demand for excess liquidity and a variety of independent variables. Pooled cross section-time series equations are estimated for the demand for excess liquidity of 198 S & Ls over the period 1974–1978. In addition to conclusions on the role of individual variables, the estimated equations reveal that the FHLBB can affect the portfolios of some, but not all, S & Ls. This implies that FHLBB liquidity policy can have an effect on the mortgage market.     

Interfirm Modularity and Its Implications for Product Development*

Industries characterized by interfirm modularity, in which the component products of different firms work together to create a system, are becoming increasingly widespread. In such industries, the existence of a common architecture enables consumers to mix and match the products of different firms. Industries ranging from stereos, cameras, and bicycles to computers, printing, and wireless services are now characterized by interfirm modularity. While the increasing presence of this context has been documented, the implications for the product development process remain underdeveloped. For the present study, in‐depth field‐based case studies of seven firms experiencing an environment of interfirm modularity were conducted in order to deepen understanding of this important phenomenon. What unique challenges did this context pose and why? What solutions did firms experiment with, and which seemed to work? Based on an inductive process of data analysis from these case studies, three primary categories of challenges raised by this environment were identified. First, firms were frustrated at their lack of control over the definition of their own products. The set of features and functions in products were constrained to a great extent by an architecture that the firm did not control. Second, while an environment of interfirm modularity should in theory eliminate interdependencies among firms since interfaces between products are defined ex‐ante, the present study found, ironically, that interdependencies were ubiquitous. Interdependencies continually emerged throughout the product development process, despite efforts to limit them. Third, firms found that the quantity and variegated nature of external relationships made their management exceedingly difficult. The sheer complexity was daunting, given both the size of the external network as well as the number of ties per external collaborator. Partners with whom control over the architecture was shared often had divergent interests—or at least not fully convergent interests. The solutions to these challenges were creative and in many cases counter to established wisdom. For instance, research has suggested many ways for a firm to influence architectural standards. While the firms in the present sample followed some of this advice, they also focused on a more neglected aspect of architecture—the compliance and testing standards that accompany modules and interfaces. By concentrating their efforts in a different area, even smaller firms in this sample were able to have some influence. Instead of focusing on the elimination of interdependencies, it was found that firms benefited from concentrating on the management of interdependencies as they emerged. Finally, while layers of management and “bureaucracy” are often viewed as unproductive, these firms found that adding structure, through positions such as Relationship Manager, was highly beneficial in handling the coordination and control of a wide range of external relationships.     

Housing and Urban Development Indicators: A Good Idea Whose Time Has Returned

This special issue of Real Estate Economics is devoted to "Housing and Urban Development Indicators." The issue has been underwritten by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development as a U.S. Contribution to the United Nation's Habitat II Conference, held in Istanbul, Turkey in June 1996. This introduction first briefly explains the role of indicators in urban research. Current research on indicators is then described, including a major international research effort undertaken in over fifty countries with support from numerous academics and other researchers, the United Nations, the World Bank and a number of governments. Finally, the papers in this issue are introduced and placed in context.