Structural change in the economy and energy needs: A South African perspective∗

The paper reviews economic structural changes and the resultant effect on the demand for energy. Seen globally, structural change is determined primarily by:

• shifts In the sectoral contributions

• technological development

• increase in the urban population

• redistribution of income.

The South African situation is analysed with respect to the following factors:

• changes In sectoral energy use as a result of the development of the economy away from an agrarian economy towards a more industrialised economy

• urbanisation and the changing energy consumption patterns especially with regard to increased food and water, housing, domestic energy, transport and waste disposal needs

• redistribution of income and projected future demand for energy.

The importance of structural change in planning for future energy needs is emphasised.     

Towards developing financial management strategies for land reform beneficiaries in the Bloem‐fontein/Thaba Nchu area of the Free State province of South Africa

This article is based on research that was carried out to design financial management strategies for emerging farmers, and examines the financing problems anticipated for the beneficiaries of land reform in the Free State province. Discussions focus on criteria for detecting impending financial problems, in particular liquidity problems, and are based on the analysis of data gathered from emerging farmers by means of interviews and a questionnaire.     

The problem of defining ‘community’: Challenges for the land reform programme in rural South Africa

This article argues that the use of the term ‘community’ in South Africa's land reform programme has both positive and negative effects on the beneficiaries. Effects are positive when they help focus policy on the needs of poor people, but negative when they force conflicting groups together in a manner which results in the rights of a weaker group being trampled on by the actions of a more powerful group. The article briefly reviews different ways of looking at the concept ‘community’, and then analyses in detail a case from the Wild Coast, where a Spatial Development Initiative (SDI) has raised questions about who should benefit from land reform and economic development. It is concluded that a detailed understanding of local reality, even if it takes time to develop, should be seen as essential to both land restitution and the rights enquiry processes which government policy proposes to employ for resolving conflicting and overlapping claims to tenure rights     

State advances and private retreats? — Evidence of aggregate productivity decomposition in China

This paper is motivated by the recent debate on the existence and scale of China's ‘Guo Jin Min Tui’ phenomenon, which is often translated as ‘the state sector advances and the private sector retreats’. We argue that the profound implication of an advancing state sector is not the size expansion of the state ownership in the economy per se, but the likely retardation of the development of the already financially constrained private sector and the issues around the sustainability of the already weakening Chinese economy growth. Drawing on recent methodological advances, we provide a critical analysis of the contributions of the state and non-state sectors in the aggregate Total Factor Productivity and its growth over the period of 1998–2007 to verify the existence of GJMT and its possible impacts on Chinese economic growth. Overall, we find strong and consistent evidence of a systematic and worsening resource misallocation within the state sector and/or between the state sectors and private sectors over time. This suggests that non-market forces allow resources to be driven away from their competitive market allocation and towards the inefficient state sector.     

Tax(i)ing the Poor? Commuting Costs in South African Cities

In this paper, I describe the monetary and time costs of commuting to work in South African cities, and how these have changed in the post‐Apartheid era. I interpret these results in light of a paper by Brueckner, who used a simple urban model to suggest that location and commuting patterns by race could change as a result of the repeal of Apartheid era legislation such as the Group Areas Act that made it impossible for black South Africans to live near the centre of cities. A key finding is that monetary and time costs of commuting in South African cities are high and have increased in the post‐Apartheid period. Journey times are much higher than the OECD country average and a sample of developing country cities. Part of the explanation for increasing average commute times is population growth in South African cities, which has been substantial. Both the population and number of commuters doubled between 1993 and 2013 in the six metropolitan municipalities (metros) analysed in this paper. Since commuting costs a substantial amount and generates negative externalities through congestion I also explore the financing of public transport.     

‘Learning by importing’ in global value chains: upgrading and South–South strategies in the Ugandan pharmaceutical industry

Drawing on global value chain analysis, this article discusses the possibilities for upgrading in a domestically oriented import-dependent industry. The pharmaceutical industry in Uganda consists of a large number of importers, nine of which have upgraded into assembly and four a step further into manufacturing. The industry upgrades by a process of ‘learning by importing’. Although not engaged with global buyers, pharmaceutical producers in Uganda are tied into the global pharmaceutical value chain by international linkages with their suppliers, mainly in India, from whom they access technology and intermediates for production. Hence, this industry is based on South–South networks for production of low-value pharmaceutical products. With the globalisation of the pharmaceutical industry, an increasing number of global lead firms are ceasing to manufacture these products. This study illustrates an alternative form of industrialisation and upgrading that has not been adequately considered in the development of the African pharmaceutical industry.     

Is there a trade-off between the employment and wages of unskilled African South Africans?

The possible trade-off between employment and wages has characterised most of South Africa’s labour market debates, particularly with regards to decent wages versus unemployment. In this article we explore the relationship between labour market earnings and the level of employment among African birth cohorts using labour force data from 1997 to 2011. We find that the association between an increase in the proportion of unskilled employed in a birth cohort and earnings is mediated by the sector of employment. While some sectors exhibit the expected negative association, there is a robust positive relationship between the first two quartiles of the earnings distribution within birth cohorts and the proportion of the birth cohort who are employed in unskilled occupations in the manufacturing and trade sectors. Because a range of market forces determine this relationship, further research is needed to unpack the reasons for such varied outcomes in order to better inform the debates on labour market interventions like the proposed National Minimum Wage and to appreciate the potential impact of such policy interventions on wages and employment.     

Outsourcing the State? Public–Private Partnerships and Information Technologies in India

This paper examines public–private partnerships (PPPs) for development through the example of telecenters in two Indian states. How might a developmental state position itself with respect to civil society under a PPP model of service delivery? We find that each state’s political economy is reflected in its PPP strategy, but that in both states the emerging middle classes rather than the poor benefit most from ongoing telecenter projects. Outsourcing development services to private entities need not “privatize” the state but does alter the way in which citizens “see” the state. Service delivery through telecenters becomes a symbol of government efficiency and responsiveness.     

Technological change and the decline of the traditional pulp and paper industry in Norway, 1950–1980

Abstract

With its breakthrough around 1870, the Norwegian pulp and paper industry came to be a principal driving force in the industrialization of the country, retaining a leading position in the national economy until the mid-1950s. From that time onwards, however, the industry has experienced a relative as well as an absolute decline. Of great importance in this decline has been the fact that new technology made possible the use of all kinds of wood, which, internationally, led to a major relocation and restructuring of the industry. Technological change is, however, not sufficient to explain the decline of the Norwegian industry. National social characteristics as well as certain structural features of the industry also deserve attention.     

What about the race between education and technology in the Global South? Comparing skill premiums in colonial Africa and Asia

Historical research on the race between education and technology has focused on the West but barely touched upon ‘the rest’. A new occupational wage database for 50 African and Asian economies allows us to compare long-run patterns in skill premiums across the colonial and post-colonial eras (c. 1870–2010). Our data reveal three major patterns. First, skilled labour was considerably more expensive in colonial Africa and Asia than in pre-industrial Europe. Second, skill premiums were distinctly higher in Africa than in Asia. Third, in both regions, skill premiums fell dramatically over the course of the twentieth century, ultimately converging to levels long observed in the West. Our paper takes a first step to explain both the origins of the Africa–Asia gap and the drivers of global skill premium convergence, paying special attention to the colonial context that shaped demand, supply, and labour market institutions.     

Gender,occupation, or workplace: what mattered for the gender gap in the Swedish tobacco industry?

Abstract

Historical studies on earnings differentials are largely based on group data and much less so on micro-level data. We use detailed information from a nationwide survey that matches employers and employees and covers the entire tobacco industry in Sweden in 1898. When comparing the labour market outcomes of women to those of men, we find that the cost of being female varied across branches, which contributed to the overall earnings gap in the industry. Earnings differentials reflect horizontal as well as vertical segregation. Female workers were concentrated in the low-skilled segments of tobacco work but were not kept out of the skilled and better paid segments. Alongside with this, there are indications of a glass ceiling pattern; gender mattered more at the top of earnings distribution than at the bottom deciles. Where men and women actually performed the same tasks, gender mattered less for earnings, but due to segregation this was not the situation for all workers.     

The banks and the financing of industry in Sweden,c. 1900–1927

Abstract

In the recently published third volume of Fagerstabrukens Historic, Professor E. F. Söderlund has given a detailed and penetrating account of the formation in 1927 of the Fagersta concern, resulting from the amalgamation of five leading Swedish iron works. ¹ Cf. Professor B. Boëthius' article above. pp. 174. His analysis offers a most useful background for a discussion of certain general problems of industrial finance and ownership, and of banking, in Sweden during the First World War and the 1920s. To provide such a discussion is the purpose of this article, and to that end it will be necessary to summarise Professor Söderlund's narrative. As, however, the story is in all essential respects the same for each of the works, a brief resume of the main facts in the history of one of them, Fagersta Bruk, will suffice.     

Global competition and cooperation in the electronics industry: the case of X-ray equipment, 1900–1970

The electronics industry is often regarded by scholars as an example of a sector driven by endless technological innovation and major competition between a few large companies, thus embodying the common view whereby the free market leads firms to innovate. On the other hand, some business historians have also emphasised that, since the beginning of the twentieth century, most of these companies were engaged in various international cartel agreements. The business and economic history literature on this industry reveals a clear-cut divide between the inter-war years and the post-war era. In this paper, however, we argue that technical and commercial cooperation between large electronics companies continued in various forms despite the spread of anti-trust policies after 1945. In this case study, we explore the global X-ray equipment industry from its beginnings around 1900 to the advent of the CT scanner in the early 1970s. The paper focuses on Siemens and Philips, the two largest manufacturers of radiological equipment. It demonstrates that both companies pursued their commercial and technical cooperation at least until the 1970s, although it was much less overt as during the interwar years.