货币:危机背后的黑手

马克思认为,有效需求不足与社会化大生产之间的矛盾导致了经济危机的爆发。有效需求不足是经济危机爆发的必要条件,社会化大生产是经济危机爆发的充分条件。本文将从货币制度的演变出发,探讨社会化大生产出现的原因,寻找经济危机背后真正的黑手。通过分析不同货币制度下货币属性的变化对经济产生的影响,进而分析货币在经济危机中扮演的角色,探讨经济危机产生的真正原因。     

Contagion in the stock markets: The Asian financial crisis revisited

This paper presents empirical evidence of herding contagion in the stock markets during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, above and beyond macroeconomic fundamental driven co-movements. We analyze the cross-country time-varying correlation coefficients among the stock prices for the countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines, between crisis and tranquil periods. Macromodels are constructed and implemented to capture the pure contagion effects on the markets. After controlling for the economic fundamentals for the five countries, the paper finds strong evidence of herding contagion.     

Currency crisis and contagion: evidence from exchange rates and sectoral stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis by using high-frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. With time-series techniques, this study confirms that benchmark stock indices often fail to provide valuable insights into currency crises, but there is evidence that developments in some sectoral indices—including those of banking and financial sectors—seem to have caused upward pressure on exchange rates. Our evidence therefore confirms the importance of financial markets as a transmission channel during the currency crisis period.     

Time-varying beta and the Asian financial crisis: Evidence from the Asian industrial sectors

This paper empirically investigates the effects of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98, and the period immediately afterwards, on the time-varying beta of four industrial sectors (chemical, finance, retail and industry) of Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. We apply daily data from 1992 to 2002 and the bivariate MA-GARCH model (BEKK) to create the time-varying industrial betas. Results provide evidence of the influence of the Asian financial crisis, and the period after, on the time-varying industrial betas of these countries. These results may have implications for investors who are interested in portfolio risk management.     

Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-Based Approach

This paper investigates whether, during the Asian crisis, contagion occurred from Thailand to the other crisis countries through the foreign exchange market, and, if so, determines the contribution of this contagion to the crisis. More specifically, we examine whether the effect of the exchange market pressure (EMP) of Thailand, the origin of the crisis, on the EMP of four Asian crisis countries increased during the crisis. Instead of measuring contagion by the commonly used correlation coefficients, we apply regression analysis. To control for the impact of macroeconomic fundamentals, we construct a time-varying indicator measuring the fragility of each economy. Additionally, we control for spillovers and common external shocks. We find evidence of contagion from Thailand to Indonesia and Malaysia, with 13 and 21 percent of the pressure on the respective currencies attributable to that contagion. For Korea and the Philippines there is no evidence of contagion from Thailand. JEL no. F30, F31, G15     

Openness and Economic Performance: A Comparative Study of China and the Asian NIEs

Being the world's largest developing economy, China's successful economic performance since 1978 has had a powerful impact on the global economy. Its open policy features an evolutionary process, involving the gradual liberalization of foreign exchange, international trade and foreign direct investments. This paper evaluates how this evolutionary process has contributed to China's economic success in comparison with the development experiences of the Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs). It concludes that despite the economic crisis in 1997–98, China and the NIEs represent a successful development model, which is built upon openness and huge investments in physical and human capital.     

发达国家反金融危机措施比较及中国未来政策取向

文章比较分析了美国、西欧国家和日本的反金融危机措施,并对发达国家的反危机措施进行简要评价,最后,总结了中国的反危机措施,认为中国政府经济刺激政策已经见效,但仍有诸多不稳定因素。实现中国经济可持续增长,要以危机为契机,推进各项改革,通过制度创新释放经济活力,加大科技教育投入,使科技创新成为中国经济增长的新引擎。     

On the feasibility of a regional exchange rate system for East Asia: Lessons of the 1992/1993 EMS crisis

This paper argues that a regional exchange rate system such as the EMS should not be ruled out when discussing monetary options for East Asia. The paper recalls that the 1992/1993 EMS crisis was the crisis of an exchange rate system and not just the collapse of unilateral pegs pursued by individual countries. It discusses distinct features that add to the credibility of regional exchange rate systems and reasons that a system that is built around well-defined rules and which is managed very carefully and cooperatively according to those rules could be both credible and sustainable even in the 21st century.     

Agency cost and the crisis of China's SOEs: A comment and further observations

This paper compares and contrasts our earlier principal–agent analysis of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with that of Zhou and Wang [China Econ. Rev. 11 (2000) 297.]. We argue that the focal principal–agent relationship in these SOEs consists of the manager as the principal and the workers as the agents. In addition, the paper addresses the appropriate representation of the state as principal and the manager as agent when the two top levels of SOEs are the focus. The modeling of collusion in a multilevel organization is also discussed. Other aspects in representing these SOEs are presented.     

Open economy and financial burden of corruption: theory and application to Asia

We discuss why corruption remains high and show that corruption contributes to the Banking distress and to the rapid transmission across international stock and currency markets. Undeveloped ‘derivative securities’ markets make the risk from stress-induced volatility difficult to manage. Vinod’s (1999) closed economy model is extended to indicate the asymmetry of ‘home bias’ and the effect of corruption on the value at risk (VaR). Our theory predicts that capital flight controls will be many, foreign direct investment (FDI) will be low and cost of capital will be high in corrupt developing countries, which is supported by Asian data. We include some policy recommendations regarding financial institutions and markets.     

基于不同指标类型的财务危机预测模型比较——来自我国制造业上市公司的实证研究

本文选取我国证券市场上446家制造业上市公司,以因财务状况异常而被ST作为公司进入财务危机为标志,分别建立了基于财务指标的危机预测模型、基于非财务指标的危机预测模型和基于混合指标的危机预测模型,并对模型的预测结果进行了比较分析。分析发现,财务指标模型对于训练样本预测精度好于非财务指标模型,但模型外推性(稳定性)不如非财务指标模型。财务指标模型和非财务指标模型的互补性较强。混合指标模型兼具了单指标类型模型的优点,对于训练样本和测试样本的预测精度都具较高水平。     

China's import duty drawback and VAT rebate policies: A general equilibrium analysis

China's duty drawbacks and value-added tax rebates play important roles in promoting exports. Simulations from a CGE model, characterized by a dual production (domestic sales and export processing) and dual import structure (imports used in export processing and for other purposes), confirm our theoretical results on China's exports that (a) such policies are generally export promoting; (b) a small part of the export expansion comes at the expense of a slight decline of the domestic activity through factor re-allocation and input substitution, whereas a larger portion of the expansion is attributed to cheaper access to foreign inputs; (c) export processors use more imported inputs and less domestic inputs; and (d) export intensive sectors are positively affected by these policies, whereas traditional agriculture sector is impacted adversely. These policies generate welfare gains for China.     

Analysis of regional productivity growth in China: A generalized metafrontier MPI approach

This paper analyzes the dynamics of China's productivity for the period 1996–2004 with a newly developed methodology — generalized metafrontier Malmquist productivity index (gMMPI). Implementing the gMMPI, this paper reviews the inequality of the coastal and non-coastal provinces, as well as the latent impact of scale efficiency change (SEC) for China. Using provincial data for the years 1996–2004, the empirical results are as follows. On average, China demonstrates an annual 3.191% productivity change, which is lower than 4.729% for the conventional MPI and accounts for about 26.508% of output growth over the period 1996–2004. Most of this change is propelled by technical progress, while a fraction is driven by the adjustment in production scale, and the efficiency change has an adverse effect. Furthermore, regional inequality is also found in this empirical work, and the productivity change of the coastal region is actually stronger than that of the non-coastal region. This paper also casts some focus on the China Western Development policy. Indeed, we do not find any outstanding achievement from the policy in the sample period, except that the west region sustained its rate of productivity change after 2000. Moreover, the SEC is found to be trivial in the advanced coastal region, but plays an important role in the relatively laggard non-coastal region. The implication of the positive SEC in the non-coastal region means that China's Western Development policy will improve the scale efficiency and the TFP growth of the west region.     

The technological system of Chinese manufacturing industry: A sectorial approach

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the technological system of Chinese manufacturing. The input–output method and network analysis are applied to investigate the structure and performance at the system level and the role of each sector at the individual level in 1997 and 2002. Firstly, the R&D-flow matrices for per unit output are constructed to examine the technology intensity and constitution of each sector. And then they are combined with the economic size and R&D investment structure in order to have a more comprehensive understanding of the system at the gross level, and reveal the main technology diffusion providers, acquirers and techno-economic flows between sectors. Results of both years show that the R&D performance and technology providing for diffusion are more concentrated than technology acquiring, and this difference becomes even greater in 2002. There are fewer sectors which act as main technology diffusion sources while more sectors participate as acquirers of technology diffusion. The techno-economic flows have high dependence on a few traditional sectors and the contribution of high-tech sectors such as ICT is quite limited.     

Growth in China's Grain Production 1978–1997: A Disaggregate Analysis

This paper analyzes China’s grain production during 1978–97. Using disaggregate approach to explore disparities in growth patterns of respective crops, the study reveals that during this period, almost all the increased output can be attributed to the growth of rice, wheat and corn. The contribution of other crops as a whole was almost negligible. The disparities in growth patterns were partly the result of crop adjustments, induced by changes in food demand, and dominated by substitutions of high-yield crops for low-yield crops. In this process, the adoption of new technologies played an important role. Varying opportunity costs of grain production in different areas also affected growth patterns of respective crops. The trend in China’s grain production in the past two decades suggests that the adherence to grain self-sufficiency has become not only increasingly costly but also unnecessary.     

License to till: The privileges of the Spanish Mesta as a case of second-best institutions

The Mesta was the association of the migratory shepherds of Castile, controlling fine wool production between the thirteenth and the nineteenth centuries. Its royally granted privileges have often been blamed for the stagnant Spanish agricultural productivity during the early modern period. I argue that the Mesta’s privileges allowed Medieval Castile to develop its comparative advantage in wool, and that the Crown was able to restrict their scope and application when economic conditions favored arable farming interests. I support my argument with extensive archival data, including a new series of wool prices and a detailed analysis of lawsuits involving the Mesta.     

The effects of governance changes on bank efficiency in China: A stochastic distance function approach

China has accelerated banking reform since joining the Word Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. Employing a stochastic distance function approach, this paper examines bank technical efficiency and differentiates the static, selection and dynamic governance effects on bank efficiency for the 11-year period 1995–2005. The results show that bank efficiency has improved. Joint-stock ownership is associated with better performance in terms of profitability than state ownership (static effect). Strong selection effects are found for both foreign acquisition and going public reform strategies. Foreign acquisition may benefit domestic banks by efficiency gains in the long run, but privatization via initial public offerings (IPOs) appears to have only some short-term effects.     

利益认知与国际规范的国内化——以中国对国际气候合作规范的内化为例

国际规范国内化的根本原因不在于国内结构的不同,不在于国内文化与规范的匹配程度是否较高,也不在于国际组织的教育作用,而在于国家是否在与国际机制的互动中其某种需要获得了一定程度的满足,或是激发了一种积极的国家利益认知。在中国对国际气候合作规范的内化中,现有的国际气候机制激发了中国希望在应对气候变化问题上掌握主动权的需要,从而形成了一种积极的国家利益认知。这种国际规范国内化的表现就是中国决定彻底转变经济增长方式,而通过对相关指标的考察可以发现这种内化已经达到了比较高的程度。     

A new institutional approach to pro-poor agricultural development: Lessons from Asia

Dr. Naya has been one of only two instructors of a course unique to the University of Hawaii called, “The Economics of Cooperation.” He was an early observer of deliberation councils and other institutions whereby the investment coordination problem was partly solved by extra-market cooperation in the East Asian “miracle” countries. These insights contributed to The Economics of Cooperation (1992), which featured the role of government as facilitator—a theme of Hawaii State Development Planning when Dr. Naya served on the Governor’s cabinet.Reconsidering government as a facilitator, and not as a replacement for markets, is one of the primary contributions of the New Institutional Economics (NIE). This paper extends and applies the facilitation perspective to the problem of agricultural development. Policy failures are detailed and sourced to the fallacy of misplaced exogeneity. In contrast, the method of fundamental explanation, inherent in NIE, acts as a corrective to misguided interventionism that has prevented pro-poor rural development from taking place.