借鉴和思考：日本泡沫经济和通货紧缩

日本的泡沫经济已经破灭十几年了，由其连带发生的通货紧缩，在最近的10年中一直肆虐着日本的经济。泡沫经济究竟如何在日本产生，谁是泡沫经济的罪魁祸首，又是谁第一个发现泡沫经济的弊病，并采取了积极的应对措施呢?理清这些问题，对深入挖掘泡沫经济在日本产生的社会及经济制度基础十分有     

日本经济的通货紧缩：对中国的启示

前日本大藏省财务次官(?)原英资教授最近在中国社科院的演讲中,将日本的经济问题归因于日本的二元经济结构:规模庞大,但效率低下的国内经济;规模小,但具国际竞争力的出口部门。     

中日两国通货紧缩的比较研究

本文对中日两国通货紧缩下的经济运行、通货紧缩的成因及政府政策选择等问题进行了比较研究。本文认为,中日两国20世纪90年代以来都出现了通货紧缩。两国在物价持续下降的同时,都出现了社会需求不足、经济衰退或经济增速下滑和失业率的上升,且近些年都出现过通货紧缩在一定程度上好转后又趋恶化的情况,但两国在通货紧缩起点的表现和经济增长率方面有较大差异。消费者预期因素、不良债权问题以及外部性影响,是两国通货紧缩的共同成因,但两国在经济体制等深层次诱发因素上有很大差异。两国政府都采取了相对扩张性的宏观经济政策,并都进行了一定程度上的体制改革,但两国在经济政策的连续性和体制改革的广度和深度方面有着较大差异。     

Deflation in China

This article investigates the causes of deflation China has experienced since 1998. The analysis is based on a theoretical model which makes the distinction between tradable and non-tradable goods and on the estimation of a reduced equation of consumer price variations for the period 1986–2002. The empirical results corroborate the theoretical predictions. The main conclusion is that the slowing down of inflation and the fall of prices are chiefly explained by Chinese macroeconomic policy. Moreover and contrary to current opinion we find that deflation is partly due to the deceleration of productivity growth in the tradable sector.     

通货紧缩:问题与控制

目前 ,通货紧缩是我国经济生活中比较严重的宏观经济问题 ,通货紧缩具有较严重的危害性和治理的难度性。本文从“流动性陷阱”角度分析了目前我国通货紧缩的现状 ,提出了解决通货紧缩的三条具体思路。     

The Dangers of Deflation

Beginning no later than Mises’s The Theory of Money and Credit in 1912, the causes and consequences of inflation have been a central concern of the Austrian School of Economics. Unfortunately, that has meant relatively few analyses of the problems of deflation from a distinctly Austrian perspective. Deflation has dangers of its own, and there are important insights that are unique to the Austrian tradition that can add to our understanding of those dangers. This paper explores those dangers, both at the broad macroeconomic level and at a more microeconomic level by integrating the Austrian theory of capital with the monetary equilibrium theory account of deflation. Austrian concerns about inflation should not lead them to overlook the very real dangers of deflation.     

积极应对通货收缩

自 1 997年下半年以来 ,中国的宏观经济形势发生了根本性变化。我国经济由短缺经济向过剩经济转变 ,市场由卖方市场向买方市场转变 ,物价由持续上涨转变为持续下跌。中国经济第一次出现了真正意义上的“有效需求不足” ,进入了通货收缩 (ｄｅｆｌａｔｉｏｎ)的新阶段。我们应如何认识通货收缩 ,怎样应对通货收缩是我国目前理论研究的重大课题。一、通货收缩形势判断通货膨胀和通货收缩在方向上相反。美国经济学家哈伯勒这样定义 :“我们把通货收缩理解为以货币计的商品总需求的逐步减退 ,……这里不能狭义地理解通货收缩 ,不能把它看作只是…     

Deflation: When Austrians become interventionists

Conclusion The aforementioned six Austrian economists, especially Rothbard, refute most arguments that mainstream economists mention against deflation. To differing degrees they are much less deflation-phobic than the mainstream. Nevertheless, when it comes to deflation, they diverge very much and do not staunchly champion the free market. In contrast to their laissez-faire views on most other subjects, in order to fight deflation, they come up with an arsenal of state interventions, like government bailouts, redistribution of gold, amnesty and privileges for the banking system, government-planned monetary reforms, public works, credit expansion, and inflation. Curiously, with these interventions they want to prevent the liberating deflation, i.e., the free market reaction to an abstention of all government interventions into the monetary system, especially the fractional reserve banks’ privileges and amnesty. They fail to see that deflation is a fast, smooth, direct, and ethical way to a sound financial system.     

Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited

Previous studies [e.g., Hamori, S., 2000. Volatility of real GDP: some evidence from the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan. Japan and the World Economy 12, 143–152; Ho, K.Y., Tsui, A.K.C., 2003. Asymmetric volatility of real GDP: some evidence from Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Japan and the World Economy 15, 437–445; Fountas, S., Karanasos, M., Mendoza, A., 2004. Output variability and economic growth: the Japanese case. Bulletin of Economic Research 56, 353–363] find high volatility persistence of economic growth rates using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications. This paper reexamines the Japanese case, using the same approach and showing that this finding of high volatility persistence reflects the Great Moderation, which features a sharp decline in the variance as well as two falls in the mean of the growth rates identified by Bai and Perron's [Bai, J., Perron, P., 1998. Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica 66, 47–78; Bai, J., Perron, P., 2003. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18, 1–22] multiple structural change test. Our empirical results provide new evidence. First, excess kurtosis drops substantially or disappears in the GARCH or exponential GARCH model that corrects for an additive outlier. Second, using the outlier-corrected data, the integrated GARCH effect or high volatility persistence remains in the specification once we introduce intercept-shift dummies into the mean equation. Third, the time-varying variance falls sharply, only when we incorporate the break in the variance equation. Fourth, the ARCH in mean model finds no effects of our more correct measure of output volatility on output growth or of output growth on its volatility.     

中国经济复苏：既要防止通缩又要防止通胀

在宽松的货币政策和积极财政政策刺激下，今年以来股市上涨了1000多点，中国汽车销量连续4个月全球第一、房地产市场出现了一些局部转暖迹象、制造业采购经理指数连续5个月回升，乐观人士认为中国经济已率先回暖。但是，综合对比分析今年以来的各项经济指标，可以发现，中国经济仍然在底部运行，回暖尚存变数，现在轻言中国经济“率先回暖”或复苏为时尚早。     

“通货紧缩”理论述评

近年来，通货紧缩的经济现象在全球范围内蔓延，国内外经济学家就通货紧缩的定义，成因、后果及对策各抒已见。争论不休。本文简要地回顾并评论凯恩斯、费雪和克鲁格曼等西方经济学家的通货紧缩理论和研究成果，希望我们可以从中得到一些有益的启示。     

降低利率对于刺激消费、改善通缩的有效性分析

本文通过建立一个基于个人追求效用最大化的消费者（家户）行为模型来推导出旨在刺激消费、改善通缩的货币政策能否发挥作用的必要条件，然后利用资产选择模型对1998-1999年中国的有关数据进行检验，利用其结果给出有关以降低银行利率为手段的货币政策对于刺激消费、改善通货紧缩有效性的合理评价。     

外汇储备增长与全球性通货紧缩趋势形成

1998-2002年,全球新增外汇储备7820亿美元,年均增加1564亿美元,较1990-1997年的平均水平上升了39.2％。与此同时,世界经济步入低通货膨胀时代,并呈现通货紧缩从亚洲向全球蔓延之势。那么,现阶段外汇储备的大幅增长与当前全球性通货紧缩趋势有何关系呢?以下,本文先简单回顾一下1998年以来全球外汇储备的增长趋势。接着,以外汇储备增长最快的亚洲为例,探讨外汇储备增加的原因。然后,在分析外汇储备增减对物价变动影响的一般传导机制的基础上,重点分析外汇储备增长对当前世界性通货紧缩趋势形成的影响,并归纳几点结论。     

通货紧缩条件下的货币政策与政府投资

我国经济已进入结构调整阶段，经济内在矛盾发生了巨大变化，物价低位运行是这一阶段矛盾变化的集中反映。目前，由于受传导机制等诸多因素的制约，我国货币政策的有效性难以显现出来，并导致政府投资的乘数效应弱化。本文的研究认为，面对通货紧缩，政府一方面应加快金融体制改革，完善货币政策的传导机制，合理实施选择性货币政策工具，充分发挥货币政策工具的结构性调控功能，刺激宏观经济发展；另一方面，在投资支出既定的情况下，选择投资乘数效应强、能引导企业和民间投资的政策措施，发挥政策导向功能和作用，推动国民经济长期稳定协调发展。     

我国通货紧缩现象分析

一、对我国当前通货紧缩的判断为了应对80年代末90年代初的经济过热,从1993年开始,我国实施了金融宏观调控和适度从紧的货币政策,成功地实现了经济的软着陆并取得明显的效果,通货膨胀得到了有效的控制。但从1998年起却出现了较为明显的通货紧缩现象。到1999年10月份,居民消费价格指数持续下降了18个月,商品零售价格指数持续下降了25个月,而作为经     

日本学者关于本国通货紧缩问题研究述评

2002年初始日本经济走出低迷,但时至今日通货紧缩却一直与其相伴随。日本学者对其进行了深入研究,所涉及的问题包括:关于通货紧缩概念的界定标准,涉及是否应将经济低迷纳入其中。关于通货紧缩的成因,在需求方面涉及泡沫经济的后遗症、通货紧缩预期和工资持续下降等;在供给方面涉及日本的规制改革和技术进步、国际分工中的低工资压力和经常项目顺差所造成的日元升值等。关于通货紧缩的机理,学者们援引马克思、凯恩斯和哈耶克等经典理论对其进行了说明。关于通货紧缩的影响,涉及对实体经济的危害、代际之间收入转移弊端和就业环境恶化等。关于通货紧缩的治理,涉及加强金融和财政政策的调控力度、消除通货紧缩预期和政府干预无效论等。跟踪这些研究无疑是一项有意义的工作。     

关于通货紧缩时期货币政策取向的几点建议

当前经济处于实际的通货紧缩阶段，在货币流通领域中通过种种指标表现出来，而目前宽松的货币政策并没有取得相应效力，在此基础上，本文浅析关于今后货币政策取向的几点建议。