Unit root tests with double trend breaks and the 1990s recession in Japan

This paper applies to Japanese macroeconomic series unit root tests that allow for the possibility of up to two endogenous break points. The presence of a single structural break around the first oil price shock in 1973 turns out to be very sensitive to the amplitude of the data sample and, in particular, it disappears when one extends the sample to the observations of the 1990s. This may indicate the presence of a second structural break, the existence of which is tested with a unit root test with a two-break alternative hypothesis for which we compute finite sample critical values. Interestingly enough, the hypothesis of the absence of a second break occurring in the 1990s can be rejected. Such results seem to indicate that the deep recession of the 1990s in Japan may not be the reflection of a negative output-gap, but that of a fall in the growth trend of output as a consequence of a huge productivity shock.     

Trade, convergence, and globalisation: The dynamics of the international income distribution, 1950-1998

This paper investigates the evidence for convergence in per capita incomes across 115 economies during the period 1950-1998 and examines the impact that international trade had on this process. Drawing on trade-conditioning within a distribution dynamics framework, that explicitly models frequency distributions of the cross sections of economies over time, this study suggests that trade patterns in the Golden Age were conducive to the formation of middle and high income groups or clubs of economies, but similar trade patterns (dominated by the rich economies) do not seem to explain the perpetuation of these group formations in the post-Golden Age period. If foreign trade is a key aspect of globalisation, why does it matter in accounting for the observed dynamics of the international income distribution during the Golden Age, but not during the decades since the first oil-shock? Further, the evidence from the ergodic (long-run equilibrium) distribution suggests that in the long term the established trade patterns favoured the growth of the rich at the expense of the poor economies across the world.     

Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals

This paper studies episodes of current-account reversal in developing countries (DCs) in the period 1965–1994. First, a number of persistent shifts (reversals) in the current-account balance dynamics are identified by structural break and segmented trend tests; then, the relationship between these reversals and a set of fundamentals suggested by the intertemporal approach to the current account is investigated in a panel-data set-up. We find that fundamentals play a different role in episodes of persistent deterioration or improvement of the current-account balance in DCs.     

协整还是协变:来自中国进出口时间序列的经验证据(1950-2004)

结构突变是经典计量经济学所面临的难题之一,也是当前国际计量经济学界的一个前沿热点问题.本文采用带有内生结构突变的单位根检验,判定我国进出口时间序列服从具有两次结构变动的趋势平稳过程,而不是单位根过程.在此基础上进一步建立了同期协同结构突变向量自回归模型,即协变模型,得出了一些与常规的协整分析不同的结论,该模型具有更强的解释能力和更好的预测效果.     

On the nature and causes of business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-2000

Since Unification (1861), Italy has experienced approximately 20 business cycles. In the same period, the country’s economic structure has changed dramatically. This essay analyses the nature and causes of business fluctuations in Italy over one and a half century emphasizing the role of structural change in shaping each cyclical episode. A mix of real and nominal factors, structural change, and the evolving financial conditions of firms and banks makes every cycle a ‘historical episode’ in and of itself.     

2011-2012年东盟经济的分析与预测

2011年东盟国家经济保持复苏的态势。随着欧元区主权债务危机的蔓延,世界经济增长趋于放缓,东盟国家的经济增长也呈现出减缓的趋势。为应对国内经济的下滑,一些国家开始逐步调整宏观经济政策的方向。同时东盟区域经济一体化取得新的进展。在新的国内外经济形势下,2012年东盟国家经济发展将面临新的挑战,这将考验各国政府的宏观调控能力。     

财务比率的行业特征:差异性及收敛性——基于中国上市公司的非参数检验

本文采用非参数方法对中国上市公司财务比率在行业间的差异性和行业内的收敛性进行了检验。结果表明，中国上市公司的财务比率存在显著的行业差异，总负债率、总资产周转率和存货周转率的行业差异相当稳定，而流动比率、净资产收益率和净利润率的行业差异不具有稳定性。我们所考察的六种财务比率都显著地向行业均值收敛，但调整成本和行业特性的差异导致了不同的财务比率具有不同的收敛速度。     

Tall and shrinking Muslims, short and growing Europeans: The long-run welfare development of the Middle East, 1850-1980

In this study we examine anthropometric data for eight countries in the Middle East for the period 1850-1910, and we follow those countries until the 1980s. The Middle East had a relatively good position during the mid-19th century, if human stature or real wages are considered, but much less so in terms of GDP per capita. Initially low population densities allowed better anthropometric outcomes. The height advantage was due, among other factors, to easier access to animal products. All indicators suggest that the Middle East lost ground after the 1870s relative to the industrializing Countries.     

Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan

This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be relevant. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (4) (2007) 470–488.     

一个农业大国的反贫困之战——中国农村扶贫政策分析

中国作为一个农业人口占多数的发展中大国,农村贫困人口的快速下降为世界范围内的贫困人口的降低做出了重要贡献,然而,这并不能简单的归结为中国农村扶贫政策取得成功。我们综合分析了中国政府农村扶贫政策的得与失,并总结认为:中国农村贫困的减少更多的来自于持续快速的经济增长。虽然经历了三十年的改革开放,中国的农村贫困人口已经大大减少,但是,这并不表明剩余的几千万贫困人口会逐步自动的消失,对于这些剩余的贫困人口,政府还要采取综合措施并以提高贫困家庭参与市场的程度为目标,从而使他们能够更快的融入到经济增长的轨道中去,而不能让他们被排除在市场化和城市化的边缘。     

The sources of unemployment in Canada, 1967-91: evidence from a panel of regions and demographic groups

We analyze the determinants of Canadian unemployment in a frameworkincorporating demand and supply-side variables: the interestrate, taxation, foreign activity, minimum wages, union density,demographic pressure, unemployment insurance, terms of trade.The model is estimated with 500 observations for five Canadianregions and four demographic groups, 1967-91. We provide a comprehensivepicture of the macroeconomic and structural causes of unemploymentwith data combining the advantages of macroeconomic time seriesand microeconomic cross sections. The long-term rise in Canadianunemployment since 1960 is attributed to higher real interestrates, the UI reform of 1972, and slightly adverse net demographicpressure.     

‘The rules of the game’: London finance,Australia, and Canada,c.1900–14

It is often asserted that, between 1865 and 1914, economic dependence on British capital subjected settler societies to an unofficial imperialism wielded by the City of London. This article argues that both advocates and critics of such models, particularly in the recent controversy over ‘gentlemanly capitalism’, pay insufficient attention to the City itself. Using the Edwardian City's connections with Australia and Canada, it illustrates the range of financial intermediaries involved and explores their perceptions of political economy in these countries. It concludes that the City's influence (or ‘structural power’) was limited by its internal divisions and hazy conceptions of political economy.     

Public investment and business cycles: The case of Japan

This paper examines the effect of public investment on macroeconomic fluctuations in Japan by comparing the effects of central and local government investments. Impulse response functions show that central government investments slightly but persistently stimulate industrial production, while local government investments have no positive impact on business cycles. In terms of policy effectiveness, these results suggest that the Japanese government should not employ local public sector investments as a policy instrument for economic stabilization.     

The historical roots of India’s service-led development: A sectoral analysis of Anglo-Indian productivity differences, 1870-2000

India fell further behind the UK in terms of GDP per capita and overall labour productivity between the 1870s and the 1970s, but has been catching-up since. This paper offers a sectoral analysis of these trends. Comparative India/UK labour productivity in agriculture has declined continuously, and agriculture still accounts for around two-thirds of employment in India. Agriculture thus played a key role in India’s falling behind and has subsequently slowed down the process of catching up. Although there have been substantial fluctuations in comparative India/UK labour productivity in industry, this sector has exhibited no long run trend. The only sector to exhibit an upward trend in comparative India/UK labour productivity is services. India’s recent emergence as a dynamic service-led economy thus appears to have long historical roots. Although India has been characterised by relatively low levels of physical and human capital formation overall, its education provision has historically been unusually skewed towards secondary and tertiary levels. This has provided a limited supply of high productivity workers who have been employed predominantly in services.     

The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?

Existing literature repeatedly documented a strong correlation between trade and growth. It has also shown a causal effect of imports (though not necessarily exports) on growth in simultaneous equation models but to a lesser extent in Granger-causality tests. Export and import taxes have sometimes been found to negatively affect growth. Drawing policy conclusions from these general findings for a particular country is difficult not only because of the contradictory results but also because of potential second best world effects and the implied endogeneity of trade policy. Policy recommendations for a specific country require a careful analysis of market and institutional arrangements and can not be based on the existing cross-country literature.This project started while both authors were working at the World Bank. Views expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or the institutions they are currently affiliated with. We would like to thank Lucas Bretschger, Shanta Deverajan, Marion Jansen, Marcelo Olarreaga, Howard Pack, Karen Pittel and Paul Welfens for helpful discussions and comments. We are especially indebted to Simon Evenett for very detailed and constructive comments.     

中国各地区生产效率与全要素生产率增长率分解(1990-2006)

本文选用超越对数函数的随机前沿模型,对1990-2006年的分省数据进行实证分析,以估算我国各地区的生产效率,并分解其全要素生产率增长率,实证结果表明:第一,东部地区生产效率最高,西部地区最低,1996-2000年各地区平均生产效率均出现了不同程度的下降,2003年之后生产效率出现上升趋势,且东部地区的增长幅度较大;第二,城市化率、各地区GDP中第二产业的比重、基础设施水平、人力资源水平和对外经济依存度对地区生产效率具有正面影响,而固定资产投资占国有经济投资比重以及政府对经济的干预程度与地区生产效率呈负相关关系;第三,就生产的不确定性而言,除人力资源水平能减少生产的不确定性之外,经济对外依存度、技术创新水平、基础设施水平、政府干预倾向都会增加生产的不确定性;第四,全要素生产率增长率在1992年之后出现了明显下降趋势,2000年之后,各地区全要素生产率增长均有显著的上升.全要素生产率的增长主要是由生产效率变化率决定,其次是技术进步率.     

The roles of electricity and ICT in economic growth: Case Finland

A quantitative look is taken at electricity and ICT as the engines of economic growth in Finland which was one of the leading countries in the electrification of mechanical drive in industry and which today is one of the leading information societies. It is shown that ICT’s contribution to GDP growth in 1990-2004 was three times as large as electricity’s contribution in 1920-1938. The improvement of multi-factor productivity in production accounted for 60% of ICT’s contribution but only one third of electricity’s. Electricity’s growth contribution was smaller but ICT’s larger than in the United States.     

引致需求、路网密度与中国道路运输业营运绩效评价——基于DEA模型与面板Tobit的两阶段分析

本文基于产出导向的BCC-DEA模型对中国道路运输业在2000-2009年期间的营运效率进行了测算,并采用受限随机效应面板Tobit模型检验了各种外部环境因素对于道路运输业营运效率的影响;此外,还结合基于非参数DEA的Malmquist生产率指数,对中国道路运输业全要素生产率进行了动态评价。实证结果显示,纯技术效率较低是中国道路运输业营运效率较低的主要原因,而且突发性外部环境冲击是道路运输业营运效率出现较大幅度波动的重要因素;样本期间内道路运输业全要素生产率呈现出较为平稳的增长态势,这主要得益于道路运输业较为明显的技术进步;单位面积生产总值等引致需求因素以及公铁基础设施等路网密度因素,均是影响道路运输业营运效率的重要因素。     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.