Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence

Band-pass filters and structural time-series models are applied to the new estimates of Italy’s domestic product from 1861 to 1913. These indicate a strong four-year cycle, derived from the agricultural sector, which curiously (and perhaps spuriously) vanishes after 30 years. Over the longer term GDP and the services reflect the long swing in industrial production, tied to the investment cycle. Agriculture seems marked instead by a further cycle of some 12-15 years, and also by a long wave related to the sector’s terms of trade.     

Real exchange rate misalignment and business cycle fluctuations in the Asia-Pacific

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing countries. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a decline in economic growth, exports, and export diversification and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 sample countries from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in the Asia-Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short-term interest rates, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may reduce CPI inflation and short-term interest rates. We also find that the Asia-Pacific region is highly heterogeneous in that the output gaps of some countries, particularly from the Southeast Asian region, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks.     

Nutrition and growth in Italy, 1861-1911: What macroeconomic data hide

We investigate how nutritional status responded to economic growth in Italy during 1861-1911. By combining household-level data on food consumption with population censuses, we estimate that the incidence of undernutrition decreased by at least 15% between 1881 and 1901. Income elasticity of calories in 1901 was in the range of 0.3-0.6, varying inversely with the level income. Overall, our findings do not support the pessimists’ view, ubiquitous in the Italian literature. On the contrary, the early phase of Italian industrialization was beneficial to the bulk of the population, and even more so for the poorest among the poor.     

Multinational business and host countries in times of crisis: Courtaulds,Glanzstoff, and Italy in the interwar period

Despite the considerable attention granted to the history of international business, we still have a limited knowledge of the historical impact of multinationals on host economies. This article presents the case of the giant Italian rayon firm Snia Viscosa which was acquired by its direct rivals, Courtaulds in the UK and the German firm Glanzstoff, in 1927. Italian deflation which underpinned the return of the country to the gold standard between 1925 and 1927 and the parlous financial conditions of Snia Viscosa proved incentives in what seemed to be a fire sale investment. This investment mitigated the credit crunch and allowed Snia Viscosa to have access to foreign rayon expertise. Evidence suggests that the regime and economic nationalism exerted some pressure on foreign interests and were instrumental in the abandonment of plans intended to reduce Italian rayon output dramatically. One contribution of this article is its use of business history to illustrate how recessions can reshape foreign direct investment flows and the tensions that may arise between domestic business interests and foreign stakeholders during recessions. In addition, the history of Snia Viscosa shows the importance of foreign interests and multinationals in the long‐term industrialization of Italy.     

Breaching the barriers: The segmented business and innovation system of handicraft exports in Cape Town

Twenty years after apartheid was formally abolished, black handicraft exporters in Cape Town still innovate significantly less than their white counterparts. This study explains these differences based on the segmentation of business and innovation systems, a novel approach that aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of path dependency in South Africa. The study concludes that the business system is segmented between formal and informal firms and that such segmentation is correlated with race. Despite path dependency, a group of black entrepreneurs has managed to breach the barriers, owing to the ongoing support of an intermediate organisation, intense networking and risk-taking.     

论近期日元升值的成因与影响及走势预测

2007年以来日元汇率出现大幅上升,其主因是金融危机前累积的经常项目顺差及危机后美国经济衰退和日美利差缩小带来的短期资本大量流入,日本政府无力干预汇市则是危机后日元升值得以持续的条件,中国增持日本国债并非升值主因。在金融危机和日本财政、货币政策均受制约的背景下,日元升值可能给日本出口和宏观经济带来比20世纪80年代更为严重的负面影响。鉴于日本经济基本面走势和财务省加大汇市干预力度及大地震的影响,日元升值并不会持续太长时间。     

日本资本市场开放:动因、过程与经验教训

战后日本经济的恢复与发展和来自美国、OECD等外部环境的压力是日本资本市场对外开放的内外两大背景因素,日本采取的是全方位的有限制的渐进的直接开放模式。日本政府采取的逐步开放政策,对于日元向资本项目下自由兑换体制的平稳过渡发挥了积极作用。由于我国目前的情况与日本有相似性,因此,深入分析日本资本市场开放的动因、过程与经验教训,可对我国资本市场的开放提供借鉴。     

Unemployment Dynamics, and Propagation of Aggregate and Reallocation Shocks in the Netherlands

This paper models the propagation at the macro level of four types of shocks using the SVAR approach. Time series data for the Netherlands on job creation, job destruction, the number of vacancies and labour supply are used to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks, and reallocation demand and supply shocks as different sources of unemployment dynamics. Each of these four types of shocks appears to have at least some influence on unemployment both in the short and long run. The long run influence of the aggregate labour supply shock is estimated to be very limited. It indicates that additional labour supply is almost fully absorbed by labour demand in the long run.     

Companies' insolvency and ‘the nature of the firm’ in Italy, 1920s–70s1

This article analyses the functioning of Italian insolvency laws and practices, in particular their role in the selection and relaunch of viable firms. The article investigates the period between the 1920s and the 1970s, and focuses on joint‐stock companies. Using comparative data on the number of cases, we show that in Italy firms mainly used the procedure called fallimento (bankruptcy), consisting of the collection and subsequent liquidation of assets. Other procedures, such as deals with creditors or forms of receivership, able to give companies a further chance, were rarely used. On the basis of archival documents we maintain that this result was due to the strictness and complication of Italian procedures, as well as to their inability to select viable companies. The article also investigates the relation between the features of insolvency law and the nature of the Italian industrial system, specifically the peculiar small size and rapid turnover of joint‐stock companies. We suggest that the pro‐liquidation character of the insolvency law might have been one of the causes of the peculiarity of Italian industrial capitalism, even if the opposite direction of causality cannot be excluded.     

Efficiency, competition, and the development of life insurance in France (1870-1939): Or: should we trust pension funds?

French life insurance remained underdeveloped in comparison with other countries of similar financial development during the period between 1870 and 1939. We show that technical peculiarities of the contracts used and their interaction with macroeconomic fluctuations explain the wide fluctuations we observe in insurance operations. Nevertheless, these fluctuations are not sufficient to explain the industry’s long-term stagnation. Low returns paid to clients, resulting from very conservative investment strategies, were the main reason for that stagnation, since only those interested by the life-cycle related aspects of insurance contracts continued to put money in these institutions, while most savers invested directly in the market or through State-owned financial institutions. The main reason for such an investment (and then low-growth) strategy is the existence of a set of conservative regulations and a stable oligopoly in the industry from the 1880s onwards. We suggest that established insurance companies were able to impose regulations and barriers to entry blocking the access of competitors to their market, so maintaining a hold on a small but very profitable market.     

引致需求、路网密度与中国道路运输业营运绩效评价——基于DEA模型与面板Tobit的两阶段分析

本文基于产出导向的BCC-DEA模型对中国道路运输业在2000-2009年期间的营运效率进行了测算,并采用受限随机效应面板Tobit模型检验了各种外部环境因素对于道路运输业营运效率的影响;此外,还结合基于非参数DEA的Malmquist生产率指数,对中国道路运输业全要素生产率进行了动态评价。实证结果显示,纯技术效率较低是中国道路运输业营运效率较低的主要原因,而且突发性外部环境冲击是道路运输业营运效率出现较大幅度波动的重要因素;样本期间内道路运输业全要素生产率呈现出较为平稳的增长态势,这主要得益于道路运输业较为明显的技术进步;单位面积生产总值等引致需求因素以及公铁基础设施等路网密度因素,均是影响道路运输业营运效率的重要因素。     

湖北省中小企业外部环境成长障碍分析

文章通过分析湖北省中小企业成长状况,指出湖北省中小企业成长面临法律政策环境障碍、融资障碍、产业选择障碍等外部环境问题,并借助中小企业成长的环境激励模型,提出了中小企业成长的政策取向与对策。     

近10年日本宏观经济的理论分析与展望

近10年日本经济停滞不前，一方面对外经济状况不佳：日元对美元汇率技术下跌。且不断加剧；出口增长放缓，贸易顺差连续下滑，另一方面国内宏观经济状况严峻；失业率不断上升，内需不振；通货紧缩逐步加深；工业增长持续低迷，工业生产与效益下降，究其原因，用内外均衡模型理论分析得出，日本经济没有达到均衡的0点，内外均衡遭到了破坏，而展望今后的日本经济和日元走势，基于日本财政状况的恶化及货币政策的失效，估计还不会导致资本的大量外流。也不会对资本流动产生重要的影响，而结构改革也将可能引致日元升值。     

论政府、行业协会、企业在反倾销预警机制中的职能

出口产品反倾销预警机制分微观、中观和宏观三个层面。微观层面是指企业自行建立的出口产品价格监控系统。中观层面是指行业协会所建立的同类产品出口价格及出口市场变动情况的监控系统。宏观层面是由国家所建立的监控主要出口产品可能遭遇反倾销调查的预警系统。反倾销预譬机制包括反倾销信息预譬机制、反倾销法律预譬机制、反倾销制度预譬机制、反倾销体制预譬机制。预警机制需要靠政府、行业协会、企业各尽职能并相互配合才能发挥作用。     

Foreign direct investment by Japanese firms and corporate governance: in relation to the monetary policies of China, Korea and Japan

Reflecting upon the lessons from the Asian currency crises, more attention is being paid to the importance of consolidation for the domestic financial and capital markets, as well as international cooperation to avoid disturbing factors from abroad, such as massive inflows of speculative capital. The aim of financial reforms being executed in the East Asian countries, such as Japan, Korea, and China, is to improve the managerial efficiency of the business corporations and financial institutions.Recently, foreign direct investment by Japanese firms in the rest of the East Asia has been recovering. However, the existence of a financial system to realize optimal corporate governance is indispensable for the enhancement of direct investment. Namely, it is necessary to improve corporate profitability, and to distribute the increment of such profits between the host and the investor countries, in order to boost the welfare of the respective citizens, notwithstanding the type of foreign direct investment.     

2000年以来中国预算管理制度改革回顾、成效与展望

20世纪90年代以来,在中国提出建立社会主义市场经济体制的改革目标之后,中国的财政改革脉络具有明显的阶段性特征：1994年的税制改革和分税制财政体制改革,重在解决财政收入和财政收入在各级政府间的分配问题,确定与市场经济相适应的税制体系和财政体制;1998年提出公共财政改革目标后,2000年推行的以部门预算为起点的预算管理的制度变革,重在强化财政部门在预算编制和执行过程中的内部控制职责,强化财政资金使用的合规性与绩效性。本文在对新世纪以来中国预算管理领域的改革进行回顾梳理的基础上,客观评价了改革的成效,并对未来预算改革的方向进行了展望。