Taxes, efficiency, and redistribution: Discriminatory taxation of villages in Ottoman Palestine, Southern Syria, and Transjordan in the sixteenth century

Governments can tax productive activities with either uniform or discriminatory rates among taxpayers. Although discriminatory rates can cause productive inefficiency and require high cost of administration, they can be preferred because of their advantage in distributional flexibility. This paper studies the discriminatory taxation of production in the Fertile Crescent. Using information from the Ottoman tax registers, it examines the basis, distortionary effects, and distributional consequences of discriminatory rates quantitatively. The results challenge widely held beliefs about the basis for discriminatory rates in this region and the Ottoman government’s motivation in adapting systems of taxation in newly conquered lands.     

Sustainability of public debt: evidence from Japan before the Second World War1

Japan defaulted on its public debt after the Second World War. This article addresses the question of how Japan lost its ability to sustain its public debt. We explore the sustainability of public debt in Japan before the War. We conduct statistical tests for the relationship between public debt and primary fiscal balance, and find that Japanese public debt was sustainable until 1931, and unsustainable in and after 1932. Narrative modes of analysis indicate that Japan lost its fiscal discipline because of the military's effective veto over budgetary processes and because of the absence of pressure for sound fiscal policy from international financial markets.     

俄白哈经济一体化的内部分歧、挑战及其发展前景

俄白哈关税同盟已运行两年,成效显著,但同盟还只是俄白哈三国经济一体化进程的第一步,未来一体化进程推进还任重而道远。目前,俄白哈经济一体化在运行中出现了一些分歧,主要体现在进口税收分配、进口税率、一体化进程推进、能源贸易政策等方面,而且也面临诸多挑战,主要有内部产业转移、俄罗斯意志主导、WTO规则制约、白俄罗斯经济危机、哈萨克斯坦国内争议、俄乌两国天然气纠纷等。可见,今后政策协调难度会越来越大,短期内扩员前景不乐观,但长期合作前景良好。     

Density,distance and debt: New-town construction and local-government financial risks in China

The local governments in China have borrowed a lot of debts in the past ten years. In recent years, local governments have been under increasing pressure to repay debts. By matching panel data for city-level urban construction and investment bonds (UCIBs) with hand-collected new-town construction panel data, this study found that new-town construction has partly accounted for UCIB issuance, especially since 2009. Firstly, the new-town construction presented a trend that the distance away from the city center increases and planned population density decreases over time, which may end up with lowering efficiency of new towns. Secondly, the number and planned area of new towns in inland regions far exceeds that in coastal regions, while the scales of UCIBs are also larger in inland cities than in coastal cities, along with relatively higher interest rates. We argue that the inland-favoring land supply policies and local government political competition are the main driving forces behind this phenomenon. Thirdly, while local governments built new towns increasingly by borrowing, the return to investment is declining over time both in coastal and inland regions. We argue that without fully understanding the importance of population density and distance to downtown in urban economic development, new-town construction using land financing can lead to inefficient urbanization in China, which is not financially sustainable, especially for small and inland cities.     

Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market

This paper explores the impact of oil price uncertainty affects the cost of debt in China. By analyzing the bond data from 2008 to 2019 in China, we find that oil price fluctuation boost bond offering spread, denoting that oil price uncertainty may increase the cost of debt. This increase is likely due to higher default risks resulting from the heightened oil price uncertainty. Moreover, non-state-owned firms and those in the energy industry are more susceptible to the effects of oil price volatility. Our findings also reveal an asymmetric effect of oil price uncertainty on the cost of debt, with a stronger impact observed from positive uncertainty compared to negative uncertainty. This study contributes to the current understanding of the ways in which oil price uncertainty impacts the cost of debt in an emerging country.     

从双边博弈到多边合作——中日俄石油管线争端的案例研究

作者试图运用博弈论分析工具剖析中日俄石油管线争端案例,借此建立一个国家间能源交易合作机制的分析框架。国家间能源博弈要实现合作解,分别可以依托双边机制、多边机制和第三方机制。中俄有关东北亚石油管线的建设项目长期陷入僵局的根源在于两国的双边博弈缺乏稳定解,这不但与日本介入这一外部因素有关,也与中俄之间的经贸关系以及国际市场油价的波动等因素密不可分,从而使重复博弈和质押等双边机制的作用受到限制。在当前国际社会缺乏强制性第三方机制的条件下,为了更好地保障中俄国家间的能源合作,在完善双边机制作用的同时,当务之急是要参与建设和完善各类多边机制。     

中俄经贸合作:机遇 挑战 对策

俄罗斯加入WTO和俄罗斯国内外经济形势的变化,为我国同俄罗斯发展经贸合作提供了难得的机遇和严峻的挑战。面临机遇和挑战,我国应充分利用和发挥两国地缘政治战略和地缘经济战略的特有优势和重要共识,通过采取提高产品质量和售后服务、拓展合作深度和广度、办好2012~2013年中俄旅游年活动等举措,扩大和深化中俄经贸合作。     

俄罗斯与东北亚各国交通合作的现状及前景

东北亚地区幅员辽阔、资源丰富,因而发展潜力较大.目前,在世界经济一体化的大趋势下,俄罗斯与该地区各国之间的相互往来日益密切.随着与各国间合作的加强及人流和物流的日渐增长,俄罗斯与东北亚地区各国在交通运输领域的合作也将逐步得到加强.     

Engineering and the First World War: A case study of the Lancashire cotton spinning machine industry

This paper investigates the impact of the First World War on one of the major British engineering industries - that of cotton textile machinery. From 1915 all the important firms came under direct Government control and were required to give priority to munitions manufacture. The consequent decline in machinery output combined with the disruptions to international trade drastically reduced exports. Since Britain was the foremost supplier to the world market, the growth of cotton manufacturing was directly affected. The varied response to this in the different markets forms the central focus of our study.     

Energy cooperation between Russia and Northeast Asian countries: Prerequisities,directions and problems

The paper deals with prerequisites, conditions, problems and directions of energy cooperation between Russia and Northeast Asian (NEA) countries. It describes a transition period of the Russian economy, shows the significance of the Eastern energy policy of Russia, and the role the fuel and energy potential of the Eastern regions of Russia can play in its implementation. Prediction of the economy and energy development in the eastern regions of Russia is given in terms of export of Russian energy resources to Japan, China, Korea and other NEA countries. A comprehensive strategy of energy cooperation for NEA countries is shown and elaborated.     

Growth opportunities,collateral and debt structure: the case of the Japanese machine manufacturing firms

We explore the determinants of debt structure by analyzing the Japanese machine manufacturing firms’ data from 1990 through 1996. We find that firms with abundant growth opportunities and scarce collateral are likely to borrow from banks rather than to issue bonds. This is robust even if we consider the simultaneous decision of the debt composition and leverage or managerial incentive. We also find that firms with abundant growth opportunities or collateral tend to depend on equity rather than on debt. Though banks reduce the agency costs of debt for growing firms, equity costs less than bank loans for them.     

Price formation on clandestine markets: the case of the Paris gold market during the Second World War

Because of the scarcity of data, there are few quantitative analyses dealing with clandestine markets, despite their prime importance during wartime. This article exploits a unique database of daily prices of gold coins traded in occupied Paris in order to gain insights into the price formation on such a market. First, using data from Switzerland, we show that arbitrage took place, despite the costs and risks involved, and led to a gradual (but incomplete) convergence of gold prices. Furthermore, a study of price seasonality reveals that less strict borders controls during the weekends made the volatility of returns higher at the start of the following week. Second, on the basis of an event study, we provide evidence that laws related to black markets did not have a significant impact on the gold price, except for the most severe law passed on 8 June 1943 which greatly increased the sentences for involvement. Finally, we assess whether the so‐called coin premiums existed on this clandestine market, and show that the large price variations for one gram of fine gold contained in different coins were due to market participants’ preferences for specific gold coins.     

Militarisation and Urbanisation: The Second World War,Public Housing,and the Shaping of Metropolitan Adelaide

Adelaide entered the Second World War with an industrial urban axis extending north-west from the city to its port, and emerged from the War re-aligned to the north. This article asks why the re-alignment occurred. It argues that previous explanations for Adelaide's north–south alignment are inadequate, and concludes that the orientation is the result of Commonwealth Government investment in military–industrial development and accompanying urbanisation on a remote rural site to the north of Adelaide's metropolitan area. These explanations are now hidden in the landscape and almost forgotten in historical accounts.     

PHEIC机制与世界卫生组织的角色演进冰

为了更好地应对全球公共卫生挑战,《国际卫生条例(2005)》提出了“国际关注的紧急公共卫生事件(PHEIC)”这一概念,并授予世界卫生组织推进国际合作的新职权。具体而言,世卫组织扮演着提供政策建议、指导国际合作的规范性角色以及开展实地应对的行动性角色。从运作实践来看,世卫组织长期形成的技术专长以及政策建议的科学性是其扮演规范性角色的基础,科学认知的发展和应对经验的积累有助于提升世卫组织在协调国际集体行动方面的权威性。与此同时,在应对卫生危机的过程中,国际社会对世卫组织的期待进一步提升,要求它提供更多实际的卫生服务。世卫组织行动性角色经由一系列改革措施得到了扩展,在协调研究、实地运作、资金调拨等领域的能力确实得到了提升。但是,资源短缺和作为专门性组织的职权局限依然是影响其治理行动有效性的重要障碍。在应对跨国传染性疾病的问题上,国家的支持、合作决心以及对公共卫生体系的长期投入才是国际组织与国际合作机制有效性的根本保证。     

Extending home ownership before the First World War: the case of the Co‐operative Permanent Building Society, 1884–19131

Formed in the mid‐nineteenth century, the building societies grew rapidly from their humble beginnings as localized ‘self‐help’ institutions to become the dominant players in the house mortgage market by the interwar period. Throughout their early history, the societies presented themselves as champions of home ownership among the working classes, but historians of housing have generally disputed the role that building societies played, or could have played, in extending home ownership before the First World War. The case study presented in this article shows that it was possible for a building society to lend to working‐class borrowers, and that home ownership before the First World War was not beyond the grasp of such people. While it was undoubtedly an exception within the movement, the Co‐operative Permanent Building Society showed a genuine commitment to working‐class owner‐occupation, providing the majority of its loans to both skilled and unskilled workers on easy repayment terms. How it was able to overcome the adverse selection and moral hazard risks involved in lending to such groups of people is the focus of this article.     

Making profits in wartime: corporate profits,inequality, and GDP in Germany during the First World War1

Making profits in wartime: corporate profits, inequality, and GDP in Germany during the First World War. This article reconsiders, and rejects, Kocka's (1973) hypothesis that a strong income redistribution from workers to capital owners occurred in Germany during the First World War. A small number of firms profited from the war, but the majority experienced a decline in real income, similar to the decline in workers' real wages. This finding also has important implications for the political history of the Weimar Republic. The authors also use their figures to improve German GDP estimates for the war period, since their sample makes it possible to estimate private service sector development. Economic indicators were worse for the war year of 1917 than previously believed.     

Officer retention and military spending: the rise of the military-industrial complex during the Second World War

This article examines how the regional distribution of US military personnel contributed to military expenditures around the country. We first discuss a theory of political economy for military spending—officers who remain in service can eventually help channel military funds and employment to their respective regions of origin, through direct military spending decisions or indirect political channels. Further, if officer retention is positively related to less industrialization at home (fewer work opportunities at home induce greater service lengths), this channel will induce greater progressiveness in military spending. To test these ideas we use the personnel records of officers serving in the US Navy from 1870 to the late 1930s. Tracking the tenure of all officers, we construct measures of ‘military representation’ across US counties. Through ordinary least squares, Tobit, and instrumental variable approaches, we find that senior naval officer representation across regions positively and robustly predicts regional naval spending (but not spending from other branches) during the Second World War.     

评国有企业改革中的＂法定经营权说＂——基于中国与俄罗斯的比较

由我国《物权法》正式规定的企业法定经营权不应针对一切企业法人类型适用，它甚至不能如法定经营权说的倡导者期望的那样针对包括了在竞争与非竞争领域从业的全部国有企业适用。结合其他转型国家的经验与教训，根据我国自身改革实际情况，文章认为，法定经营权作为依法调整企业所有权人与经营权人之间利益关系的法律工具，应主要立足协调企业自由与政府管制，偏向控制企业市场化改革深度与广度，以保留国家对国有企业改革进程及改革后形态的长效调整。由此，国有企业改革中的法定经营权应主要面向有非市场化要求的特殊国家企业。