Do firms follow GAAP when they record share repurchases?

This paper examines U.S. firms' accounting for share repurchases and the accounting choice provided to Delaware-incorporated firms between the treasury and retirement methods. This accounting choice does not affect income, cash flows, or net assets, but it nevertheless affects financial reporting transparency and the allocation of equity between retained earnings and contributed capital. According to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the accounting choice to record share repurchases should reflect management's intended disposition of the repurchased shares. We compare characteristics of Delaware-incorporated treasury and retirement firms and find that the choice between the two accounting methods is not always consistent with GAAP, but neither is it random; rather, this choice is related to a number of firm characteristics including firm growth, industry membership, trading exchange, and price–earnings ratio. We also find that a firm's accounting method for share repurchases is associated with a firm's propensity to make future share repurchases.     

Insider trading and share repurchases: Do insiders and firms trade in the same direction?

Signaling undervaluation is often considered a primary motive for repurchasing stock, but insider trading activity by repurchasing firms is not always consistent with undervaluation. Net insider buying and selling are both more frequent in quarters when firms are repurchasing non-trivial amounts of stock, with the odds of observing a repurchase the highest in quarters with net insider selling. In multinomial logit models, share repurchases associated with net insider selling are positively related to illiquidity, option exercises by insiders, and pre-repurchase returns and negatively correlated with industry-adjusted book to market ratios when compared to other repurchases. Hence, repurchases when insiders are selling stock are more likely done to support share prices or avoid dilution and are less likely undervaluation signals. We find that insider trades either validate or mitigate the undervaluation signal of the repurchase. Abnormal returns of repurchasing firms with net insider buying versus net insider selling in a given quarter are significantly higher for the quarter immediately after the repurchase and the three subsequent years. For repurchases accompanied by net insider selling, abnormal returns are negligible after only one year.     

Macroeconomic news and treasury futures return volatility: Do treasury auctions matter?

Various macroeconomic announcements are known to influence asset price volatility. In addition to non-farm payrolls, we highlight the importance of Treasury auctions – a news event that has grown in importance due to ongoing Federal deficits. The occurrence of an auction, which increases supply in the underlying cash market, pushes futures prices lower and volatility higher. Conversely, a higher bid-to-cover ratio, indicates greater demand for Treasury securities, increases Treasury futures prices and lowers volatility. The response is consistent with market participants using futures to manage inventory risk. The results are consistent across a set of volatility estimates, and in an alternate conditional volatility framework.     

Stock market liquidity and trading activity: Is China different?

We study market-wide liquidity and trading activity in China. Trading activity increases in up markets more than in down markets, which is consistent with the disposition effect and the large number of unsophisticated retail investors in China. Whereas, on average, liquidity and trading activity are lower around holidays, more recently, trading activity has been significantly lower before holidays and higher afterward. Aggregate short selling and margin trading activity boost trading activity, but short selling also increases spreads, indicating lower liquidity. We also document the positive effects of other recent regulatory changes and the increased influence of global factors in China.     

Stock dividends in China: signalling or liquidity explanations?

We test alternative hypotheses on a sample of Chinese stock dividends. The inverse Mills ratio, a signal about future performance, is positively related to announcement returns but does not predict higher future performance. Analysts do not revise their earnings forecasts after the announcement date. Our results are more consistent with liquidity‐based theories. We find that managers choose higher stock dividend ratios if share prices deviate more from the industry‐wide average. Increases in proportional spreads, depth, and the number of trades and decreases in average trade size, and price impact suggest greater participation of liquidity and small investors following stock dividends.     

What do insiders know? Evidence from insider trading around share repurchases and SEOs

We examine the nature of information contained in insider trades prior to corporate events. Insiders' net buying increases before open market share repurchase announcements and decreases before seasoned equity offers. Higher insider net buying is associated with better post-event operating performance, a reduction in undervaluation, and, for repurchases, lower post-event cost of capital. Insider trading also predicts announcement returns and long-term abnormal returns following events. Overall, our results suggest that insider trades before corporate events contain information about changes both in fundamentals and in investor sentiment.     

Do mutual fund managers time market liquidity?

This paper examines mutual fund managers' ability to time market-wide liquidity. Using the CRSP mutual fund database, we find strong evidence that over the 1974–2009 period, mutual fund managers demonstrate the ability to time market liquidity at both the portfolio level and the individual fund level. Liquidity timing predicts future fund performance and the difference in the risk-adjusted returns between top and bottom liquidity-timing funds is approximately 2% per year. Funds exhibiting liquidity-timing ability tend to have longer histories, higher expense ratios, and higher turnover rates.     

Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?

Changes in sovereign debt ratings and outlooks affect financialmarkets in emerging economies. They affect not only the instrumentbeing rated (bonds) but also stocks. They directly impact themarkets of the countries rated and generate cross-country contagion.The effects of rating and outlook changes are stronger duringcrises, in nontransparent economies, and in neighboring countries.Upgrades tend to take place during market rallies, whereas downgradesoccur during downturns, providing support to the idea that creditrating agencies contribute to the instability in emerging financialmarkets.     

Do Decomposed Financial Ratios Predict Stock Returns and Fundamentals Better?

We investigate the prediction of excess returns and fundamentals by financial ratios, which include dividend‐price ratios, earnings‐price ratios, and book‐to‐market ratios, by decomposing financial ratios into a cyclical component and a stochastic trend component. We find both components predict excess returns and fundamentals. Cyclical components predict increases in future stock returns, while stochastic trend components predict declines in future stock returns in long horizons. This helps explain previous findings that financial ratios in the absence of decomposition find weak predictive power in short horizons and some predictive power in long horizons. We also find both components predict fundamentals.     

Stock market liquidity and macro-liquidity shocks: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis

We develop an empirical framework that links micro-liquidity, macro-liquidity and stock prices. We provide evidence of a strong link between macro-liquidity shocks and the returns of UK stock portfolios constructed on the basis of micro-liquidity measures between 1999 and 2012. Specifically, macro-liquidity shocks, which are extracted on the meeting days of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) relative to market expectations embedded in 3-month LIBOR futures prices, are transmitted in a differential manner to the cross-section of liquidity-sorted portfolios, with liquid stocks playing the most active role. We also find that there is a significant increase in shares' trading activity and a rather small increase in their trading cost on MPC meeting days. Finally, our results emphatically document that during the recent financial crisis the shocks–returns relationship has reversed its sign. Interest rate cuts during the crisis were perceived by market participants as a signal of deteriorating economic prospects and reinforced “flight to safety” trading.     

UK Vice Chancellor compensation: Do they get what they deserve?

The compensation received by UK Vice Chancellors (VCs) has been on an upward trend in recent years and attracted a lot of negative media attention. In this paper, we examine whether VCs receive the compensation they deserve. Using a panel dataset covering the academic years 2007/2008 to 2018/2019, we develop a model to predict expected VC compensation to determine whether VCs are over- or undercompensated. Our model finds that VCs are not overcompensated regarding their base salary, but some are overcompensated in terms of their benefits and pension contributions. However, there is very little difference in terms of characteristics of over- and undercompensated VCs, indicating that on average, UK VCs receive the compensation they deserve. For robustness purposes, we employ a variety of alternative model specifications and subsamples which all support our previous findings.     

Rumor Clarification and Stock Returns: Do Bull Markets Behave Differently from Bear Markets?

This paper analyzes the effects of official rumor clarification on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions. The results show that the average cumulative abnormal return after the clarification event is significantly positive in a bull market, and significantly negative in a bear market. The results are robust across various types of rumors, including rumors of mergers and acquisitions, asset restructuring, and positive changes in a firm's operations. Moreover, in both bull and bear markets, investors are unable to distinguish between rumors that prove true and those that prove false, or between strong and weak rumor denial. Furthermore, investors are also unable to adjust their strategies accordingly.     

A new family of equity style indices and mutual fund performance: Do liquidity and idiosyncratic risk matter?

We propose and test novel multifactor models of daily mutual fund performance. To this aim, we set up equity style indices and derive risk factors, which nest the established Fama and French (1992) and Carhart (1997) factors. We add two additional risk factors, namely idiosyncratic risk and Amihud (2002) liquidity. Our sample contains 528 actively managed mutual funds with European stock market focus during 2002 to 2009. Model estimation reveals that—while market excess return and size appear significant for the cross-section of all funds—the remainder factors explain the performance of subsets of funds. About one third of the funds exhibit significant factor sensitivities not only with respect to valuation or momentum, but also with respect to liquidity or idiosyncratic risk. No single risk factor is dominated and hence our six factor model may serve as a valid performance benchmark. In a four factor model setting, the Carhart model and a model with valuation replaced by liquidity perform best. Our results remain stable under various robustness checks. We further document that managers on average prefer liquid stocks, show no aggregate idiosyncratic risk preference and deliver results that are consistent with equilibrium models of fund performance.     

Do accounting measurement regimes matter? A discussion of mark-to-market accounting and liquidity pricing

Using a model with banking and insurance sectors, Allen and Carletti show that marking-to-market interacts with liquidity pricing to exacerbate the likelihood of financial contagion between the two sectors. In this discussion, I lay out the main ingredients of their model and explain how they interact with liquidity pricing to generate financial contagion. I then discuss some limitations of their model and propose an interesting extension.     

Institutional investor horizon and stock price synchronicity: Do product market competition and analyst coverage matter?

This paper provides new insights into the relation between institutional investment horizon and stock price synchronicity and investigates whether this relationship depends on the intensity of product market competition and analyst coverage. Based on a sample of French listed companies, we find that long-term (short-term) institutional investors are associated with lower (higher) stock price synchronicity. The results also show that the negative effect of long-term institutional investors is more accentuated for firms in less competitive markets and with high analyst coverage. An additional analysis shows that the synchronicity reduction effect does not vary during the financial crisis. Overall, these findings suggest that unlike their short-term counterparts, long term investors reduce asymmetric information and help disseminate firm-specific information into stock prices.     

Do liquidity and idiosyncratic risk matter? Evidence from the European mutual fund market

This paper examines the interaction of idiosyncratic risk, liquidity and return across time in determining fund performance, as well as across investment style portfolios of European mutual funds. This study utilizes a unique data set including returns for equity mutual funds registered in six European countries. Overall, using monthly data, we find that both liquidity and idiosyncratic risk are relevant in determining mutual fund returns. Our results are robust across different model specifications. We show that model specifications up to six factors are useful as these risk factors capture different aspects in the cross-section of mutual funds returns. The evidence regarding mutual funds subgroups is strongly in favor of the significance of liquidity, and idiosyncratic risk to a lesser extent, as risk factors. Even if liquidity and idiosyncratic risk are considered at the same time, one factor is not significantly decreasing the importance of the other factor.     

How Do Employees View Their Underwater Stock Options?: Evidence from the Stock Option Exchange Program

This paper examines the participation decisions of employees in a stock option exchange program aimed at restoring value to underwater options. The program invites employees to exchange their existing underwater options for new options, the value of which is determined by the company stock price in 6 months and 1 day. The participation turns out to vary cross-sectionally and, perhaps surprisingly, the employees do not surrender all their underwater options. We find that employees actively and rationally consider a variety of factors to make their participation decisions, rather than blindly surrendering their underwater options. The participation decisions of non-executive employees seem to be well anticipated by stock market investors, since no abnormal stock returns are related to the participation decisions.

Do Capital Flows Matter to Stock and House Prices? Evidence from China

This article analyzes the impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) and short-term capital flows, otherwise known as hot money, on stock and house prices in China. Empirical results, estimated using the local projections approach, reveal that a positive hot money net inflow shock significantly increases stock and house prices and the impacts persist for up to 1–2 months, while a positive FDI net inflow shock contributes significantly to lagged house price appreciation but has no effect on stock prices. This study also identifies negative pass-through effects of FDI net inflows on hot money net inflows and positive pass-through effects of stock prices on house prices.     

Does short selling improve stock price efficiency and liquidity? Evidence from a natural experiment in China

China introduced short selling for designated stocks in March 2010. Using this important policy change as a natural experiment, we examine the effect of short selling on stock price efficiency and liquidity. We show that the introduction of short selling significantly improves price efficiency, as measured by the differences in individual stock responses to market returns and the delay in price adjustments. Short selling also enhances stock liquidity, as measured by bid-ask spread and Amihud [2002. ‘Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-section and Time-series Effects.’ Journal of Financial Markets 5: 31–56] illiquidity measure; and reduces stock volatility. Overall, our results suggest that short selling helps to stabilize asset prices, provides additional liquidity and improves market quality, even in an emerging economy with a less developed stock market than that in the US and Europe.     

State-level politics: Do they influence corporate investment decisions?

Motivated by the real options theory, we develop the hypothesis that political outcomes (POs) influence corporate investment (CI). We show that POs influence CI strongly when a sample of all 1331 Australian firms are modelled as a panel. The effect of POs on CI at the Australian state-level is heterogenous with some states more affected than others and with some PO variables more influential than others. We also confirm that when confronted with a large sample of firms, firm characteristics such as political connections, size and capital intensity do matter in terms of whether POs influence CI.