试论农业综合开发投入机制创新

农业作为弱势产业，正面临“入世”后的严重冲击。农业综合开发作为政府保护和支持农业发展的战略性措施，将面临更大的任务。     

金融支持弱势领域的调查与思考

由于区域发展不平衡、城乡发展不平衡、产业发展不平衡，直接导致了弱势领域的存在。本文以西部欠发达地区内江市为例，详细讨论了金融业支持弱势地区、弱势产业、弱势企业、弱势群体等弱势领域存在的问题及其形成的原因，提出建立良性竞争机制、金融创新机制、金融风险保障机制、货币信贷政策传导机制等完善金融支持弱势领域的政策建议。     

银企合作结硕果 拓展『双弱』新突破 六安市农行与该市住房公积金管理中心签订合作协议

11月7日下午，在六安市住房公积金管理中心，六安市农行党委书记、行长孙会同志代表农行六安市农行与该中心签订了一揽子合作协议，即《住房公积金归集业务委托协议》和《六安市住房公积金委托贷款协议》，这标志着六安农行在拓展弱势地区、弱势业务方面，取得了重要突破。     

我省若干产业直面“入世”的对策思考

随着我国年底即将加入世界贸易组织（WTO），新的发展机遇和新的严峻挑战并肩走来，直面“入世”，另无选择，我们必须尽快全面熟悉WTO的协议规则，认真分析若干产业的发展趋势及可能带来的正负方面的影响，积极探讨若干产业“入世”的应对之策，以便趋利避害，迎接挑战，加快我省国民经济发展。本仅就我省农业，汽车业，纺织业，电信业和旅游业直面“入世”的对策，作一初步探讨。     

保持优势 转变弱势——看阜阳市农行如何推进有效发展

箍桶理论告诉我们，最短的那根木条决定着盛水的高度。在农业银行，要摆脱“边缘化”的命运，要实现快速高效发展，必须在巩固优势地区和优势业务的同时，下大力气强势推进弱势地区和弱势业务．力争实现均衡发展、协调发展。     

社区银行：我国弱势经济主体和弱势金融群体的共同选择

弱势经济主体遭受金融服务缺位发展受阻,而弱势金融群体却坚持与大型商业银行进行大客户、大项目的市场博弈并且始终处于劣势地位。本文针对我国经济社会发展过程中出现的这一对鲜明尖锐的矛盾展开分析探讨,提出社区银行会成为弱势经济主体必然选择和弱势金融群体的终极改革目标的观点。     

新股弱势问题的对比实证研究

本文从市场角度分析验证新股弱势问题,用与我国学者研究新股弱势相类似的方法对所选样本进行分析,并就研究的结果与我国学者以前分析研究结果进行比较,着重分析2001年改革后新股是否依然还是存在弱势,所存在的程度是减轻还是加剧,还分析了我国证券监督体制上是否存在漏洞,并就今后如何完善我国证券市场提出相应的措施。     

运用农业专项资金促进农业经济发展

在我国，农业还是一个弱势产业，农村还是一个贫困乡村，广大农民不论在经济上还是在生活上都与城市居民相差甚远。因此，无论从保持国民经济平衡持续增长的角度，还是从保证公平维护社会稳定的角度，我们都应重视“三农”问题。而要解决“三农”问题就少不了国家财政资金的鼎力扶持。     

论我国农村金融的弱势性及其应对之策

我国农村金融是典型的弱势金融,农村金融弱势状况是我国"三农"弱势化、经济体制市场化、政策扶持空泛化下的产物,根源在于农村金融所能获得的平均利润率低,改变农村金融弱势格局的根本之路在于发挥政府的财政补贴和风险分摊作用,提高整个农村金融市场的利润水平。     

浅谈公共财政覆盖农村的问题、对策和建议

农业是弱势产业,农民是弱势群体,农村经济是当前国民经济发腰中的最薄弱环节。支持农村经济发展是公共财政的重要职能。近年来,各级财政坚持“多了、少取、放活”,大力支持“三农”工作,不断加大支农投入,对农业和农村经济发展发挥了重要支撑作用。但同时也应看到,公共财政覆盖农村的范围仍比较窄,支持力度还不够大。对此,笔不揣冒昧地提出有关对策和建议．     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.