THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RETENTION RATIO IN A KALECKIAN MODEL WITH DEBT ACCUMULATION

By using a Kaleckian model with debt accumulation, Hein (2007; Metroeconomica, 56 (2), pp. 310–39) found that the long‐run equilibrium value of the debt–capital ratio is positive and stable only if interest rates are extremely high and if the short‐run equilibrium exhibits the ‘debt‐led’ growth regime. However, this conclusion crucially depends on the assumption that the retention ratio of firms is equal to unity. By relaxing this assumption, we show that there exists a positive and stable long‐run equilibrium even under the ‘debt‐burdened’ regime without any constraint on the nominal interest rate.     

MODELS OF COMPETITION BETWEEN FIRMS: ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURE IN THE KALECKIAN MODEL

The purpose of this paper is to incorporate free entry into the Kaleckian model. To this end, we consider a model with monopolistic competition, mark‐up pricing and a free‐entry condition. Using this model, the Kaleckian model is unstable under a wage‐led growth regime, and it is stable under a profit‐led growth regime, when the interest rate is supposed to be constant. Stability under a wage‐led growth can be achieved if the interest rate is allowed to respond positively to capacity utilization. We also find that a goods market policy, but not an income distribution policy, is then effective from an economic growth perspective.     

ON THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RETENTION RATIO IN A KALECKIAN DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH MODEL WITH DEBT ACCUMULATION—A COMMENT ON SASAKI AND FUJITA (2012)

In a paper published in Metroeconomica, Sasaki and Fujita (2012) argue that an earlier paper of mine (Hein, 2007 ; Metroeconomica, 57, pp. 310–39), which introduces interest payments and corporate debt into a post‐Kaleckian distribution and growth model, leads to empirically implausible and unusual results from a Keynesian/Kaleckian perspective. The major reason for the presumed shortcomings is found in the overly restrictive assumption of a retention ratio equal to unity. However, in the alternative model presented by Sasaki and Fujita either perfect capital gains have to be assumed or firms have to be allowed to issue equity in the accumulation process. The latter variant yields results which are again close to Hein ( 2007 ).     

2007年我国进出口形势分析与预测

本文根据截至2006年11月的海关统计数据,利用计量经济模型等方法对我国2007年进出口、中美、中欧之间的进出口,以及部分主要商品的进出口进行了测算。选此文为本期封面文章,指在新年开局之际给广大读者对我国进出口整体形势判断提供参考。     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

PROMETHEUS BOUND: POLARIZATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL

The paper demonstrates that the standard neoclassical model of stochastic growth in the absence of any other modifications is consistent with club convergence contrary to the analysis in Cetorelli (2002, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 27, pp. 29–50). In that sense, it is not necessary to augment the model with a probability of adverse shocks that is inversely related to aggregate capital stock or provide other modifications.     

THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN A MODEL OF GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION À LA PASINETTI: EXISTENCE OF ONE‐ OR TWO‐CLASS ECONOMIES

This paper explores the implications of different regimes of taxation and fiscal policies on the existence of a one‐ or two‐class economy in the Kaldor–Pasinetti approach of growth and income distribution. A simple model and its diagrammatical representation provide a complete taxonomy of the possible steady state equilibria and synthesize some early and recent contributions. It shows that the distribution among factors and the personal distribution among socio‐economic classes depend on the fiscal policy of the government, the behavioural parameters of actors and technology; but, provided that some conditions are fulfilled, the Cambridge Theorem and its distributional implications hold.     

INVESTMENT AND GROWTH IN THE JOHANSEN PUTTY-CLAY MODEL. A TECHNICAL NOTE(*)

The »paradoxical« result in Leif Johansens putty-clay model, that savings and investment do not seem to matter for growth, is examined. Using a growth-accounting framework it is shown that investment efforts generally influence output growth, but this influence is not revealed in a proper way when the investment ratio is fixed. Interpreted in a one-country case, the existence of a positive relationship between the propensity to invest and the growth rate of output is demonstrated.     

中国发展服务业政策与发展服务贸易政策的结合

20世纪60年代,世界主要发达国家的经济重心开始转向服务业,产业结构呈现出"工业型经济"向"服务型经济"转型的总趋势.目前,全球服务业增加值占GDP,比重达到60%以上,主要发达国家达到70%以上,即使是中低收入国家也达到了43%的平均水平.     

从需求驱动看中国文化产业成为新经济增长点

在经济全球化的背景下,受宏观经济气候的影响,我国经济在连续5年以超过10%的速度增长之后,从2008年第三季度起,我国经济增长率出现了加速下滑的局面.如图1所示,经济增长率从2008年第二季度的10.2%下滑到第三季度的9%,第四季度继续下滑到6.8%.金融危机对我国经济的影响主要表现在以下三个方面:进出口贸易受到冲击、投资受进出口下滑影响增长放缓、消费形势不容乐观.     

A CONVENIENT MULTISECTORAL POLICY CONTROL FOR ICT IN THE US ECONOMY

Through the application of the Macro Multiplier (MM) approach on an Input–Output matrix for US economy in year 2005, the paper identifies the ‘convenient’ structure of a policy control on final demand, oriented to a particular policy objective. The approach quantifies a set of aggregated scale effects, called MM, and the associated structures of both policy and objective variables. In this way the policy maker can both get a complete picture of the patterns of the objective that can be attained and determine a ‘convenient’ structure of the policy variable that compels the model towards those patterns.     

DELAYED RESPONSE TO SHOCKS IN THE NEO-AUSTRIAN MODEL: CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRAVERSE PATH

We analyse the traverse path following either the introduction of a more profitable production technique or a rise in the wage rate on the assumption that investment depends, with a time lag, on the activity level of the economic system. We compare this case with the previously studied cases of an immediate reaction and, the opposite situation, an absence of reaction. We conclude by examining the case in which only some entrepreneurs are innovators.     

对外开放30年:迈向开放型经济目标的过程及路径

十一届三中全会以来,中国对外经贸领域一直是改革开放的先锋和主力。开放也是改革,早期以经济特区为主线的开放,最重要内容就是外经贸体制改革;而外贸外资领域的开放与改革又对整个市场化改革进程起到了巨大推动作用。以开放促改革成为中国式市场化改革的重要特点。     

HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR TIME-USE STUDY IN THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN

A conceptual model to use in explaining influences on household production time of wives in the United States and in Japan is presented. This model is tested on a national U.S. sample using variables suggested by both U.S. and Japanese time-use studies. The results support and expand those of earlier studies. It is suggested that the model be tested with Japanese data to determine its usefulness in cross-cultural comparisons.     

GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IN A HARRODIAN ECONOMY: WITH EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

In this paper, we construct a macrodynamic model that expresses the growth and development process in a less developed economy. The model introduces price, wage and government policy into an otherwise Harrodian economy. We find that these components can be regarded as stabilization mechanisms to overcome the destabilization mechanism in the original Harrod model and therefore the instability puzzles can be resolved. Using the evidence from China, we will show that the model can explore some important phenomenon with regard to growth and development in a less developed economy.